Jason Wood's Thoughts

Last year Julius Jones experienced the gamut of emotions as his rookie experience had its share of highs and lows. After being selected 43rd overall by the Cowboys in the 2004 draft, Jones' outlook couldn't have looked brighter. That is until veteran Eddie George signed with the team upon his release from Tennessee. During training camp, Jones struggled through bruised ribs and had nary a carry in the Cowboys Week 1 game against Minnesota. Activated for Week 2, Jones saw some action before breaking his shoulder blade; sidelining him indefinitely.

Luckily for Jones, he healed quickly and Eddie George proved as ineffective in Dallas as he was the last few years in Tennessee. Somewhat surprisingly, Jones was activated against Baltimore in Week 11 and amassed 30 carries for 81 yards. While the yardage wasn't impressive, the mere fact he was able to handle 30 carries in his first full NFL game was something to note.

From that point on, Jones was the main cog in the Cowboys' offensive attack. In the final seven weeks of the season, Jones had no less than 22 carries and totaled 192 carries for 803 yards and seven touchdowns. Projecting his workload over a full 16-game schedule would imply:

• 439 carries
• 1,835 rushing yards
• 4.2 yards per carry
• 217 receiving yards
• 16 touchdowns

Now, rest assured, Julius Jones isn't going to have 439 carries this season; that would be a new NFL single-season record. But it does demonstrate two very important points. One, when healthy Jones is capable of shouldering a huge workload. Two, Bill Parcells has the confidence in Jones as a focal point of the offense.

So what should we expect from Julius in his sophomore campaign?

Dallas will run the ball, quite a bit'looking over Bill Parcells' coaching career, it's clear that all things being equal he prefers his teams to be among the league leaders in rushing attempts. The Giants ran the ball 558 and 541 times respectively in the 1986 and 1990 Super Bowl seasons, and more recently, the 2003 Cowboys (11-5) ran the ball 515 times whereas the 2004 Cowboys (6-10) ran the ball just 448 times.

The team's defense was an offseason priority'After finishing 2nd in points allowed in 2003, the Cowboys fell to a woeful 28th last season. There's a direct correlation between playing tough defense, and being able to control the clock with sustained offensive drives. As a result, the Cowboys made revamping the defense a priority and added two cornerbacks (Henry and Glenn), a defensive end (Spears), a defensive tackle (Ferguson) and several pass rushing linebackers (Ware and Burnett); while at the same time transitioning to a 3-4 base defense. While it may take a few games for the defense to gel, ultimately this unit should be substantially better than the 2004 unit; and it will allow the Cowboys to run the ball fervently as they should no longer find themselves playing from behind consistently.

Depth at running back is a positive for Jones, not a concern'Some fantasy leaguers have no doubt found the additions of two-time 1,000-yard rusher Anthony 'A-Train' Thomas and rookie Marion Barber worrisome; fearing the team will utilize a committee approach in 2005. Yet, we view the signings as a positive development for Jones. No running back, regardless of his durability, can sustain the workload Jones was given in the 2nd half of the 2004 season. Yet, as we've already established, HC Parcells probably wants to run the ball 500+ times this year. By adding two promising backups to the mix, the Cowboys should be able to run the ball 30+ times per game, but spell Jones in order to keep him fresh and ultimately more effective. Look for Jones to be given 18-22 carries per game; more than enough to make a fantasy impact.

Positives

• The Cowboys are committed to a power-rushing attack and history shows that Parcells is most comfortable when his team is rushing the ball 500+ times
• The additions of QB Drew Bledsoe and OG Marco Rivera should help overall offensive continuity and produce more trips into the red zone
• Jones proved equipped to not only handle a heavy workload but flourish in the process last year; amassing at least 100 yards from scrimmage and/or 1 touchdown in five of seven starts
• The additions of 'A-Train' Thomas and Marion Barber lessen the risk that Jones will break down from overwork
• The Cowboys defensive personnel appears much improved; which should allow for a more balanced offensive attack and a consistent commitment to the running game

Negatives

• The Cowboys are integrating quite a few new defensive players and a new scheme; the defense may struggle for part or all of the 2005 season as the changes are digested
• Jones suffered through several injuries last season, lending credence to worries that he may be ill-suited for a full-time role in a run-heavy offense
• Jones wasn't utilized much as a receiver last season, which could hamper his overall fantasy productivity
• Bledsoe may be younger, but it he really a marked improvement from Vinny Testaverde at quarterback? Opposing defenses may continue bringing an extra man or two into the box until the passing attack can exploit the strategy

Final Thoughts

There is a lot to like about Julius Jones and his situation. Last year, when healthy, Jones showed he's capable of running with power and vision, rattling out the tough yards and also scoring from inside the red zone. Although he's not going to see 400+ carries, he has an excellent chance of getting 300-320 carries, rushing for 1,200-1,400 yards and adding eight to ten touchdowns; or more. While being mindful of his injury history, Jones showed enough last year to warrant consideration early in the 2nd round of 10- and 12-team redrafts. Draft accordingly.

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Julius Jones was drafted in the second round by Dallas in April 2004. His season began on a very sour note, as he was injured early in the year and missed a large chunk of his rookie season. In his absence, the Cowboys running game was downright pathetic. Eddie George tried in vain to carry the load, but averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per carry in Jones' stead.

By the time Jones returned in Week 11, the Cowboys season was all but lost, the team sitting at 3-7. But the return of Jones coincided with improved play from Dallas, and the team rebounded to go 3-3 the remainder of the year. Jones' coming-out party was a Thanksgiving Day game against the Bears. He carried 33 times for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game, and followed that up with a performance that really put him at the forefront in fantasy discussions. Jones scored three times (including the eventual game-winner late in the fourth quarter) during a wild comeback win against the Seahawks. Jones closed out his season with a big game against the archrival New York Giants, totaling 192 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.

Throughout his condensed season, Jones displayed toughness and a willingness to pound the ball that some had questioned early on. He was an absolute workhorse for HC Bill Parcells, carrying the ball a minimum of 22 times in each of his starts.

Despite the addition of RB Anthony Thomas and the presence of several other backs in the Dallas stable, there is no question that Julius Jones is the key to the Cowboy running game in 2005.

Positives

• Once he got the opportunity, Jones lit up the NFL. Despite seeing significant action in only seven games, Jones gained over 900 total yards and 8 touchdowns.
• The off-season switch from Vinny Testaverde should improve the offense across the board. While it appears on the surface that Dallas is merely replacing one aging immobile quarterback with another, in truth Drew Bledsoe is a MUCH better option than Testaverde as a starting QB at this point.
• Despite missing all or parts of eight games with a broken shoulder blade, Jones jumped right into the fire in Week 11. After not seeing any game action since Week 2, Jones carried the load to the tune of 30 carries for a tough 81 yards. Jones went on to be a workhorse for the Cowboys, impressing HC Bill Parcells along the way.
• Jones proved that he could handle a huge workload, which is Parcells' specialty. He loves to have a smash-mouth running game, and Jones should be the primary beneficiary of that. If this is a typical Parcells-coached team, then it would stand to reason that the entire offense will revolve around Jones.
• Marco Rivera has joined the offensive line as a free agent. If Rivera is healthy, it should provide a big boost to an offensive line that was not very good last year.

Negatives

• Bill Parcells brought in free agent RB Anthony Thomas, presumably to be the goal-line and short-yardage back. Jones owners wouldn't mind Thomas stealing short-yardage carries, but it's those goal line ones that have people concerned. The last thing fantasy owners want is another TD vulture.
• Jones caught just 17 passes for 109 yards, with 5 of those receptions and 46 of those yards coming in one game. If Jones is losing out on goal line carries AND receptions, that could put a significant damper on his production totals.
• Jones averaged 4.15 yards per carry, not exactly stellar for someone who is being taken so highly in drafts.
• Jones' statistics are very top-heavy. He had three monster games (497 yards, 7 touchdowns) and four so-so games (306 yards, 1 touchdown).
• Jones is a bit on the small side, at 5'10', 205 lbs. Unfairly or not, the reputation that he is injury-prone will be tough to shake for someone of his size. Couple the size issue with the fact that Jones already missed half a season due to injury, and you can see why some would question his durability.

Final Thoughts

Julius Jones provided a glimpse of what we can expect to see on a more regular basis this season. While there are several negatives to keep in mind, they aren't enough to pass up the potential greatness that is there. One must make sure, however, to not overestimate what Jones did last year. It's very easy to get oneself caught up in the belief that we should expect Jones to exactly duplicate what he did. I've heard some people in the past say, 'Well, Player X did such-and-such in eight games, so he'd do such-and-such times two in sixteen games!' Fact is, it's not that simple. It'd be nice to say Jones will double up last year's half-season stats and go for 1,900 total yards and 16 touchdowns, but it doesn't work that way. While he won't approach those sorts of numbers, he should be productive enough that you can rely on him as a good RB1 or a dynamite RB2.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Julius Jones is in the right place at the right time. Coach Parcells is going to be playing smash mouth football this season and Julius Jones will benefit mostly from this. Why......because he's going to lead the NFC in rushing.

CapGuru:
The downside is that he needs to play through nicks and show durability, but 350 carries will be expected by Big Tuna. Upside is that ypc may be higher. Consider these offsetting and I think the numbers hold. This puts him just outside of the top 5 and excellent value with early 2nd round pick and I hope he lands on my roster.

BGP:
You have to love Julius Jones' situation. He is Parcells' choice RB. Bill Parcells is known for running the football almost to a fault. His RBs typically get way over 300 carries per year. The yards per carry seems irrelevant to Parcells. That said, Julius Jones gained 4.2 yards per attempt in his rookie year. That is the best YPA for any primary ballcarrier for Parcells since Joe Morris in 1985/1986.

Julius Jones Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	325	1370	12	30	210	1
Mike Brown	270	1210	8	35	250	0
Message Board Consensus	311	1319	10	32	237	1