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Spotlight - RB Kevin Jones, Detroit Lions
Posted 6/16 by Jason Wood and David Yudkin, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts Kevin Jones' rookie season was the tale of two halves. Weeks 1-9: Jones battled minor injuries and an uncertain place on the depth chart. He amassed just 69 rushes for 227 yards (3.29 yards per carry). He caught seven passes for another 61 yards and scored two touchdowns. Halfway through the season, one of the most highly touted rookie fantasy players ranked a meager 42nd among running backs. Weeks 10-17: Finally healthy and given a chance to stay in the lineup, Jones became a yardage machine. In fact, over the final eight weeks of the season, Jones lead the NFL in rushing with 906 yards. As impressive, he averaged 5.27 yards per rush and tacked on four touchdowns. Over this span, Jones was the 12th best fantasy RB, living up to lofty preseason expectations. So which Kevin Jones should we expect to show up in 2005? The one who looked tentative and pedestrian in the first half or the one who was on pace for more than 1,800 yards rushing in the second half? My bet is somewhere in between. The Lions have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal. For the third straight season, the team used a high first round pick on a wide receiver, selecting Mike Williams. Adding Mike Williams to the mix alongside Roy Williams and a healthy Charles Rogers, the Lions are in the position to throw the ball effectively and utilize spread formations at will. Their additions didn't stop there, as the team added savvy veteran TE Marcus Pollard to the mix. The bottom line is, the Lions have weapons at every offensive position, which could work in Jones' favor (i.e., more trips into the red zone) or against him (i.e., more alternatives in the red zone). HC Steve Mariucci LOVES to run the ball. Contrary to popular belief, HC Mariucci is actually a proponent of a heavy ground attack. Because of his reputation as a Mike Holmgren prot'g' and QB coach, people think Mariucci would rather throw the ball early and often. Yet, look at Mariucci's coaching career. In eight seasons as an NFL head coach, Mariucci has had four winning seasons and four losing seasons. In his winning seasons...
1997 (13-3) -- 4th in rushing attempts In his losing seasons...
1999 (4-12) -- 22nd in rushing attempts Seeing a pattern here? The fact is, Mariucci's teams have been successful when they have been able to commit to the run and have struggled otherwise. With Jones healthy and productive, I find it hard to believe that he won't get ample opportunity to rack up the yardage, regardless of the weapons in the passing game. But aren't you worried about the QB play derailing the offense? Not at all, because the Lions finally brought in someone to challenge Harrington. When Mike McMahon was the alternative, Harrington has no real pressure to perform, nor did the team necessarily believe it had a better chance of winning without Harrington in the lineup. But this year, Jeff Garcia is chomping at the bit to step in at the first sign of Harrington struggling. Garcia went to three Pro Bowls playing for Mariucci in this offensive system, and with the weapons at his disposal I have ZERO doubt that he could run this offense efficiently if given the chance. The only way Garcia won't see playing time is if Harrington finally "gets it" and produces like the franchise QB he's long been expected to be.
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Final Thoughts I'm not ready to anoint Kevin Jones an elite running back, but I do believe that if he's healthy he should be among the top 10-12 fantasy backs this year. Given Mariucci's history, Jones should see a good number of carries, and he should be capable of a solid YPC considering his 5.3 YPC in the 2nd half of last year. Jones' ultimate place in the fantasy pantheon will be decided by his TD and receiving production, which in my mind are far less certain than his rushing yardage. If the Lions offense operates at the high level some are predicting, Jones could score double digit TDs as he gets goal line carries, but with so many other weapons on offense, I wouldn't overpay on draft day. If you can land Jones in the late first, make sure you grab another RB right after him...but if he falls to the 2nd round, grab him and expect certain value.
David Yudkin's Thoughts Kevin Jones emerged at the end of the 2004 season, galloping for 1,025 yards of total offense and 4 TDs in the season's final eight games, eclipsing 100 total yards in seven of them. The Lions are generating a lot of buzz again as a potential breakout team and potential haven for fantasy production. Jones should again put up some impressive yardage totals, but it's his TD total that could make or break his fantasy outlook for the upcoming season. Many observed from afar the numbers Jones put up, as Detroit was hardly a mainstay on national television. People have salivated over what he could produce over an entire season. Some are essentially predicting double his production from his strong second half, and I am hesitant to recommend taking such an approach for determining seasonal projections for any player including Jones. Over the final eight games of the season, Jones scored 126 fantasy points--an excellent performance by all accounts, especially for a rookie. Jones overcame some minor injuries and hit high gear at about the halfway point of the season. This got me wondering, how common is it for a RB to score 120 fantasy points over an eight game period? There were 21 running backs that accomplished such a feat in 2004'and Shaun Alexander did it twice (first half of the season and then the second half of the season, each a separate and distinct period of eight games). Here's the breakdown . . . 8 straight games totaling 120+ fantasy points
P. Holmes 197 T. Barber 179 L. Tomlinson 171 D. Davis 169 S. Alexander (1-8) 169 M. Pittman 151 L. Johnson 151 C. Dillon 149 C. Martin 146 B. Westbrook 143 R. Droughns 142 S. Alexander (9-16) 138 E. James 136 W. McGahee 135 N. Goings 135 J. Jones 134 A. Green 131 R. Johnson 130 K. Jones 126 D. Blaylock 125 C. Brown 123 D. McAllister 122 Looking at some of the backs that did it, Pittman, Johnson, Droughns, Goings, and Blaylock will not even be full-time starters this year. The others are many of the Top 15 ranked running backs. Clearly they can't all be Top 10 running backs, and perhaps Jones' performance at the end of last season was not that uncommon after all. (And as a side note, three different Chiefs are on that list!) There have been several players in recent years that people thought would do dramatically better after showing promise in their rookie seasons without getting a full-time, 16-game workload including Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Anthony Thomas, Michael Bennett, Marcel Shipp, and William Green. Some worked out better than others, but it's a rare occurrence for a RB to keep up an exceedingly high level of fantasy production established across a partial season. There are normally reasons and external factors that all combine to make for a great stretch--but that normally is hard to sustain across the rigors of a 16-game season. All that aside, Kevin Jones did have a fine second half, averaging 128 total yards per game against what would have to be considered a favorable schedule (no games against any of the Top 10 rushing defenses). The Lions as a team ranked 19th in rushing yards by running backs and 21st in TD scored by running backs last year. Both numbers should improve with a full season from Jones, and they will have to for him to become an elite fantasy RB. This brings us to the Lions offense as a whole. The Lions have suffered in recent years to produce to the talent level they have trotted out on the field each week. For some reason, they have yet to fire on all cylinders. The team again looks to be chocked full of talent and potential with three highly touted first round receivers and the addition of WR Kevin Johnson and veteran Marcus Pollard at tight end. QB Joey Harrington took some baby steps toward becoming a better NFL and fantasy QB last year, but given that other QBs made some monumental steps forward last year, Harrington's performance to date has to be considered disappointing. This could be the last chance Harrington gets to answer the bell in Detroit. With head coach Steve Mariucci disciple Jeff Garcia brought in, Harrington will be on a very short leash this year and it's not inconceivable that Garcia could take over the starting QB job. Jones averaged 21.5 carries over his hot streak, which over the course of a full season might be a little on the high side. Garrison Hearst had the most carries by a RB coached by Mariucci with 310, although the normal range for Mariucci's top RB was normally 200-250 caries. Bear in mind that Jones likely benefited from the injury to Charles Rogers, Roy Williams' nagging injuries, and the lack of other viable receiving threats. With more options this year, Jones could easily see his share of the pie reduced. He had three games with 25+ late in the season, and he may not see many games with that heavy a workload.
Positives
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Final Thoughts The general prognosis for Kevin Jones is that he is an emerging stud and will be a viable fantasy force for years to come. That may be true in due time, but I am not prepared to put him in the uber-elite, Top 5 running back class just yet. Mooch's tendencies to regulate RB carries at a moderate level and his propensity to pass for TDs (no RB to date has scored more than 10 TDs on a Mariucci-coached team) has me thinking that we may not see the big fantasy numbers from Kevin Jones that some are predicting. I also think that the Lions may still find scoring TDs will be more difficult on the field of play than we fantasy geeks give them credit for. Detroit has scored 22 TD and 26 TD in the two seasons since Mariucci came to town. There's no doubt that Jones has huge upside, and he should be a borderline RB1 for 12 team leagues, but overall I would not bank on him producing much more beyond that.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
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Kevin Jones Projections
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