Jason Wood's Thoughts

Lamont Jordan has been waiting a long time for this. Ever vigilant as the primary backup to Curtis Martin in New York, Jordan probably never imagined it would take four seasons and a move to the other side of the country to finally achieve a full-time role. But then again how many people could have guessed that Curtis Martin would going strong at 32 years old, leading the league in rushing in 2004 to boot?

To say the Raiders needed help at RB would be an understatement. The Raiders all but abandoned the run last year as their roster was bereft of reliable talent. The Raiders finished dead last (32nd) in rushing attempts (328) and rushing yards (1,295) last season as they had to throw early and often to try to win shootouts thanks to their horrific showing on defense. So the team targeted Jordan, and went out and landed him early in free agency with a monster 5-year, $27.5 million contract.

Here are the key talking points for Jordan's 2005 outlook:

1) Norv Turner's coaching history -- Prior to last season, I posted an article about the NFL coaching changes and discussed Turner's history. Interested readers can find that article HERE. Essentially it shows that Turner is a proponent of a balanced offensive attack. Only twice in his NFL tenure have his offenses run 500 or more times. But, his teams have averaged a solid 460 attempts, and as importantly, he's never shied away from using one RB as his workhorse (e.g., Emmitt Smith, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, Ricky Williams).

2) Jordan was their top choice -- Let's not forget that by most accounts, Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were available for the right price (i.e., less than it cost the Raiders to acquire Randy Moss). And Reuben Droughns, Derrick Blaylock, Brian Westbrook and Travis Henry were all available in some fashion. Yet the Raiders moved QUICKLY to sign Jordan, and commit major $$$ to him in the process. Jordan fits the prototypical mold of a Norv Turner runner, big, powerful with good vision.

3) Moss is also coming to town -- You don't give up what the Raiders did to acquire Randy Moss without every intention of building your offense around him. Any reasonable projection has to start with how many targets Moss is going to get in the passing game; and from there everyone else gets to split what's left. As I mentioned earlier, Turner wants and no doubt intends to have a balanced attack, but this isn't Jordan's team, it's Moss'.

4) The offensive line looks solid -- Robert Gallery and Jake Grove, rookies last year, join Barry Sims, Langston Walker, and Brad Badger in what has the makings of a strong, productive drive blocking line. And unlike many teams, the Raiders have depth with Adam Treu and Ron Stone.

5) The defense looks horrid -- Take a defense that finished 30th and 31st in yards and points allowed, respectively and then subtract a starting corner and your most consistent linebacker and you've got the Raiders 2005 defense. Although the team added some players via the draft, it's going to take time for them to gel, and in the meantime the Raiders are not going to stop many teams. No matter how much you want to run the ball, it's all but impossible to stick with the run when you're giving up 28 PPG. So if I'm right about the sorry state of the Raiders D, Jordan is going to have games where they just can't get him the carries.

Positives

• Jordan averaged 4.9 yards per carry as Curtis Martin's principal backup
• The Raiders committed to Jordan financially, and the team desperately wants to give him a heavy workload
• With Randy Moss and Jerry Porter at wideout, very few, if any teams are going to put eight men in the box; Jordan should have holes to exploit

Negatives

• Regardless of the team's intentions, if their defense can't stop anyone, they're going to have to abandon the run at times
• Jordan has yet to show he can handle the rigors of being a team's workhorse
• It's unclear how much work he's going to see in the receiving game, as RBs are not traditionally big parts of Turner-led offenses

Final Thoughts

All things being equal, I believe Norv Turner would love to give Jordan 20-25 carries per game and win games with a ball control offense that makes defenses pay dearly with downfield passing whenever they bring an extra defender into the box. But in order for that to work effectively, the Raiders defense has to be able to stop people on occasion, and that just doesn't look likely to me based on their current personnel. With Randy Moss and Jerry Porter at wideout, this is not a team that will (or should) be shy about airing it out, particularly if they need to put up points in droves to help offset their sieve defense. So where does that leave Jordan? I believe, from a talent perspective, he's the real deal. And I believe that even bad teams have games where they don't have to abandon the running game. To me that translates into Jordan getting 1100-1300 yards rushing with 7-10 rushing touchdowns. Not enough to make him a major value pick in the 2nd or 3rd round of 10- and 12-team redrafts, but solid enough to warrant selecting as your RB2 or a very solid RB3 (if you opt for 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds).

Will Grant's Thoughts

Many fantasy football players have been predicting a breakout season for Lamont Jordan for several years now. He was a second round draft pick for the Jets back in 2001, and he was quickly penciled in to replace Curtis Martin as the Jets ‘back of the future.’ Through the 2000 season, Martin has racked up almost 2300 touches and it was unclear how much longer he was going to last. Jordan was cheap insurance against Martin getting injured, and would eventually inherit the starting job from one of the NFL’s best RBS.

Except Martin never gave up the starting job. Year after year, Jordan was labeled a ‘sleeper pick’ as Martin continued to pile on the carries. Year after year, Jordan disappointed fantasy players as Martin never missed a game. Instead of slowing down, Martin started to pick up the pace, culminating in a top five fantasy running back finish last season. Jordan left via free agency, and Oakland snapped him up.

Now it’s Jordan’s time to shine. His impressive 4.9 career yards per carry will be put to the test as Jordan will be the workhorse back in Norv Turner’s new offense. He’ll also be replacing the Oakland Running Back By Committee that finished dead last in rushing attempts and yards last season. With Tyrone Wheatley, Amos Zereoue and JR Redmond out of the picture, Jordan is finally in a position to deliver that breakout performance that so many fantasy owners have been waiting for.

How much of a breakout will Jordan have? Well that’s an entirely different story.

Positives

• Finally out of Curtis Martin’s shadow, Jordan will take snaps with the first team from day one. A clearly defined offensive role can only help his confidence.
• The Raider passing game now includes Randy Moss. With Joey Porter and Moss stretching the field, Jordan won’t see many eight-man fronts

Negatives

• Oakland’s defense gave up almost 6000 yards last season and they won’t be much better this year. It’s going to be hard to run the ball 25 times when the defense is giving up 30 points a game.
• Jordan has never had more than 108 touches in a season. How is he going to perform when that number triples?
• Oakland is going to face a tough run schedule this season. They the second WORST fantasy RB strength of schedule in the league (18.5).
• Oakland only ran the ball 328 times in 2004. If they increase that by 20% for 2005 (remember, Randy Moss is now catching passes as well), that’s still only 394 carries for the entire TEAM. Zack Crockett and Justin Fargas are still with the team and they had 83 carries between them last season. How much is Jordan really going to carry the ball?

Final Thoughts

Unless he goes down to injury, Lamont Jordan is going to have a breakout season. That’s not saying much though as he has never finished higher than 43rd among fantasy running backs. Will Jordan finish in the top 25 for fantasy RBS this season? Probably. Will he crack the top 20? Maybe. Will he finish higher than 15th? Probably not. There is too much stacked against him. Oakland’s defense is terrible, and they won’t be able to feed him the ball 25 times a game like some people think. Even worse for fantasy owners is the fact that Oakland’s 2005 opponents don’t give up a lot of points to fantasy RBS. With Randy Moss now on offense, the focus is still going to be passing first, running second. With Fargas taking 3rd down carries, and Crockett stealing goal line TDS, Jordan isn’t going to get many chances to light it up for fantasy owners. Look for him to finish around 20th for fantasy RBS in 2005.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Shooter McGavin:
I'm making a conscious effort to temper my expectations for the Raiders O, especially Jordan. They're going to throw a lot, since their defense is really bad, and Jordan hasn't been a feature back in the league. I think he'll put up good numbers, but I don't see him getting the carries to get into the top-10 or anything. Still, a very solid RB2, IMO.

The (Grid) Iron Giant:
Man. Sometimes I feel like people make this harder than it has to be. When was the last time we had a good RB paired with a decent line and a coach who prefers to run the ball and we *didn't* see good numbers from that back? If there's a list of more than one or two guys who failed in that situation, I'd love to see it.

fridayfrenzy:
Lamont Jordan is not the marquee player of the Raiders, Randy Moss is. Don't get that mixed up. One of the reasons the Raiders may have not run the ball last year is because of "who" was running the ball, but having that low number of carries can not just be attributed soley to that. It is also due to other facets of the game, such as O-line, game situations, shoot-outs, etc.. Being almost 100 RB carries short of the NFL average has a lot more to do with just who is running the ball.

randilover:
I am surprised at how little talk this offseason move has gotten. This could be pretty big for Jordan and Oakland. He is really fresh, sitting behind Martin all those years has left him with little mileage. He had been aching for years to be a number one and will look forward to making a first impression. He is fast and strong and can catch as well. Add in He has a huge supporting cast, a coach who likes to run, run, run with one RB, and a young and athletic O-line, and you have the makings of potential #1 RB.

NFZ:
The optimism for Lamont is great, as I plan to keep him as my 2nd RB this year, but the Oakland situation scares me. Habitually I will pay a good price for any Norv RB. However, I foresee a struggle for Jordan in his transition. Not only that, I see a struggle for him fighting for red zone touches with Moss. In addition, I think Norv will try and utilize his entire RB stable.

LaMont Jordan Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	275	1145	8	35	245	1
Will Grant	286	1148	7	16	114	1
Message Board Consensus	283	1174	9	27	206	1