Jason Wood's Thoughts

Eddie Kennison has made a career out of being under-appreciated. As part of one of the best WR draft classes in NFL history (1996), Kennison burst onto the scene as a rookie, finishing 17th among fantasy wideouts. But after his solid rookie year, Kennison fell on hard times and he struggled to find a permanent home. From 1998 to 2001, Kennison played for five different teams (St. Louis, New Orleans, Chicago, Denver and KC) until finally landing in Kansas City for the final five games of the 2001 season.

In his first full season in KC (2002), Kennison enjoyed a resurgence of sorts. He caught 53 passes for 906 yards. Even though he only managed two touchdowns that year, his yardage was enough to put him back on the fantasy map as a marginal contributor (he finished 36th).

But as the prolific Chiefs offense has matured, so has Kennison's contribution. In the last two seasons, Kennison has managed to build on his resurgent 2002, finishing 24th and 18th, respectively in 2003 and 2004. Last year, his ninth NFL season, Kennison set career marks for receptions (62) and yards (1086) to go along with eight touchdowns. He's become a reliable and integral part of the Chiefs offense, and is arguably Trent Green's second most viable option behind TE Tony Gonzalez.

This year, with fellow veteran Johnnie Morton released, Kennison is poised to once again play a major role on a team that should put plenty of points and yards on the board.

Positives

• Kennison has shown steady improvement in his three and a half seasons in Kansas City
• Kennison has finished no worse than 36th among fantasy receivers as a full-time Chief, and is coming off an 18th place finish yet his ADP is outside the top 40
• With Johnnie Morton released, Kennison is sure to be among the most targeted of Chiefs behind TE Tony Gonzalez

Negatives

• Entering his 10th season, Kennison has never caught more than 62 receptions and shouldn't be viewed as someone with tremendous upside
• With Johnnie Morton out of the picture and uncertainty at the WR2 position, can Kennison continue to produce with defenses keying on him with greater emphasis?
• An injury to Trent Green would derail the outlook for Kennison and the entire passing game given the tenuous backup situation

Final Thoughts

Kennison isn't a world beater, and he's not someone who's going to suddenly put up 90 catches, 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns; but he's got an excellent chance to match last year's production; which would mean acquiring top-20 production for the price of a fantasy backup. Considering Kennison's current ADP is WR41, he is the definition of VALUE.

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Quick – what wide receiver was a top-20 finisher last year, yet is being drafted on average, 41st at his position? Tick…tick…tick…ok, it really shouldn’t take this long to figure out that the answer is Eddie Kennison.

Kennison enjoyed his finest statistical season in 2004, setting career high totals in receptions and yards, while finishing one off his previous high in touchdowns. He wasn’t merely a possession guy, either, as his 17.5 per catch average established a new career high as well.

In our recent Value Plays article, Kennison was tabbed as the best value at wide receiver in all of football. A whopping fifteen writers selected Kennison as one of the best values in drafts this season, with some very good commentary as to why he will perform up to his ADP.

http://footballguys.com/05valuewr0.htm

Kennison is, by all accounts, one of the most universally disrespected fantasy football commodities in recent years. Despite finishing as the #36, #24, and #18 WR the past three seasons, most fantasy owners won’t even give him a second look as a starter in their league. In leagues that require two receivers, Kennison has been starter-worthy the past two seasons. And in leagues that require three, he has been no worse than a #3 in any of the past three years. So why the lack of respect from the fantasy community? To further understand what the thought process is of prospective owners, let’s weigh the pros and cons to owning Kennison this year.

Positives

• Kennison plays in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. While Tony Gonzalez is option #1 in the passing game, and Priest Holmes certainly gets his share of touches, Kennison is unquestionably the #1 wide receiver on the team. He’s also the team’s top deep threat
• Kennison’s value isn’t only relegated to big plays. His 19 red zone targets were the 12th highest total in the entire league. Of course, he was second on his own team to Tony Gonzalez, but finishing second to the NFL’s leader in red zone targets isn’t exactly being a slouch
• Considering the way his career was headed, Kennison has been incredibly consistent the past three years with the Chiefs. He has had between 53 and 62 receptions each year, as well as recording between 853-1,086 yards
• He hasn’t done it as much recently (just 4 carries the past two years combined), but Kennison can run the ball as well. It might not seem like a big deal because wide receiver rushing stats are difficult to project (because of the fluky nature of how they are accumulated). Still, those extra 50 yards or so that running receivers can pick up might make a difference of 3-4 VBD slots

Negatives

• Despite the high total of red zone targets, Kennison only managed three red zone scores last year. While it is nice to haul in some long scores for performance leagues, big-play touchdowns are nowhere near as reliable as red zone scores are
• Kennison’s receiving counterpart, Johnnie Morton, was let go by the team recently. How that impacts Kennison remains to be seen. It could go one of two ways: Either A) The loss of Morton means more balls coming Kennison’s way, or B) The loss of Morton means more attention being paid to Kennison. I tend to think the latter. The extra passes Kennison might see will probably be negligible, because it’s not as if the Chiefs are losing a 90-catch, 1,200-yard guy. Meaning it’s not as if there are a whole bunch of stats that will now go elsewhere. Plus, I think the remainder of the receiving corps (Hall, Boerigter) will more than make up for the loss of Morton’s stats. No, my worry is with the experience of those two (Hall/Boerigter). Since neither of those players has ever regularly lined up as a starting NFL receiver, we don’t know how well they’ll be able to take pressure off Kennison
• Priest Holmes didn’t play last year after Week 9. Once he went out, it gave numerous other players in the Kansas City offense an opportunity to shine. Larry Johnson obviously did just that, giving the team a glimpse of what he is capable of. But while Johnson stole the headlines, Eddie Kennison also significantly improved his stats during the time Holmes was out

Final Thoughts

Kennison’s stats in 6 games with Holmes: 24 receptions, 388 yards, 0 TD (6.7 fantasy points per game)

Kennison’s stats in 8 games without Holmes: 38 receptions, 698 yards, 8 TD (14.7 fantasy points per game)

Kennison’s production with Holmes out of the lineup more than DOUBLED! Either Kennison took advantage of the loss of Holmes, or the team featured him more as a result of losing a playmaker, or a combination of the two. Now, with Holmes returning, it’s a good bet that Kennison’s stats will be closer to the first line than the second.

The return of Holmes, in my opinion, is sure to make a dent in Kennison’s totals. One cannot reasonably expect Holmes to post his typical stats, Gonzalez to post his typical stats, the Chiefs defense to be much-improved (as I do), AND Kennison to maintain his 2004 level of production. The return of Holmes and the improved defense are two factors specifically working against Kennison. That’s not to say I think Kennison will fall flat on his face and fail to score a TD all year; merely that I want to warn against a strange phenomenon I’ll call, “Overvaluing the value.”

Kennison is currently being looked upon as a great value pick. And if you can get him late in your draft, you should do so. But be careful. If EVERYONE in your league begins looking at Kennison as a great value, then someone (don’t let it be you) might want to pull the trigger on him far too early. The key, as we’ve preached for years, is to get value out of your draft. While Kennison finished as the 18th-best receiver last year, make sure you don’t draft him as the 18th WR off the board because there is no value in that.

Like I said, Kennison is being taken on average as the 41st receiver off the board. Do yourself a favor and make sure he doesn’t last that long in your league. Expecting him to repeat a top-20 season is in all likelihood, a stretch. But considering he’s been a consistent starting-caliber receiver three years running and is the number one wide receiver on one of the best offenses in football, Kennison will provide tremendous value if you can get him late. Why does he last to 41? I don’t know. Perhaps because he isn’t a sexy pick. He’s too steady. You know he isn’t going to go off for 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns out of the blue, because the Chiefs offense isn’t constructed to provide the wide receiver with those types of numbers. Thus, if you’re looking for someone to make-or-break your season, this isn’t the place to look. But if you’re looking for a steady presence that you can almost always rely on for consistent fantasy production, look no further than here.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

LHUCKS:
The #1 WR in one of the most potent and consistent offenses in the league, Kennison reeled in almost 1100 yards in just 14 games making him the #17 fantasy WR in ’04. I’m not sure if people are projecting fewer games played as Kennison does have a fair amount of injury risk, but his early rankings seem awfully low given Kennison’s ’04 credentials. After all, Kennison has only missed two games in the last three years. He’s still the #1 WR in KC and that alone is enough to rank him amongst the top 25 fantasy WRs in the game.

loser:
An interesting stat:

Kennison's six games with Priest: 0 TDs
Kennison's eight games w/o Priest: 8 TDs

KnowledgeReignsSupreme:
Very quiet fantasy producer much like his QB. He'll be around 1,000 yards with 4-5 TDs. MFL ADP data has him at 112, which is higher than he's been going the last few years. Still, that's WR3-4 territory, and having a 1,000 yard guy there is nice.

MelvinTScupper:
He's a value pick to me. He's the #1 WR on this team, but not the #1 target, which is Gonzalez. I do think that Priest will stay healthy for a little longer this year, and that Kennison's AVERAGE numbers will take a small hit. He only played in 14 games this year, which might mean he could still get a minor uptick in totals.

Kleck:
Because all of Kennison's TD's, and his above average yardage totals, came in the absence of Holmes last year (thanks loser for pointing that out earlier in this thread), I took what I believe to be a more conservative approach when projecting Kennison's 2005 season. An increase in receptions and yards for totals, but the average per game for each are lower, and also a decrease in ypc and TD's for totals and average per game.

Eddie Kennison Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	65	945	6
Mike Brown	0	0	55	880	5
Message Board Consensus	0	0	66	1020	6