Jason Wood's Thoughts

The easiest advice would be to tell you to steer clear. After all, there are five receivers on the roster that could well earn playing time, with three (McCardell, Parker, Caldwell) equally capable of leading the Chargers in receiving OR missing a big chunk of time with an injury. Furthermore, the Chargers have a RB who caught 100 passes two seasons ago (Tomlinson) and a tight end who just broke the single season record for TD receptions at the position (Gates). Last season the Chargers WR corps accounted for a mere 50.8% of the team's receiving yards...30th in the league (ahead of only ATL and NYG).

Percentage of Team Receiving Yards by WR Corps

• PIT -- 82.4%
• STL -- 81.7%
• CIN -- 80.8%
• NO -- 76.0%
• BUF -- 75.4%
• HOU -- 73.0%
• IND -- 72.4%
• SEA -- 72.2%
• WAS -- 71.4%
• GB -- 70.6%
• CAR -- 70.5%
• JAX -- 70.1%
• TEN -- 70.0%
• NYJ -- 69.3%
• CLE -- 69.2%
• ARI -- 68.9%
• DEN -- 67.0%
• NE -- 66.3%
• OAK -- 65.2%
• TB -- 62.3%
• DET -- 62.2%
• MIA -- 62.1%
• DAL -- 59.7%
• CHI -- 59.1%
• MIN -- 58.8%
• PHI -- 58.5%
• SF -- 55.3%
• BAL -- 55.1%
• KC -- 52.4%
• SD -- 50.8%
• ATL -- 49.6%
• NYG -- 49.2%

But fantasy football is about rostering talent. In the later rounds, almost no player drafted is a sure bet to contribute, you're simply adding depth to your team and hoping that circumstances present themselves in such a way that your late round picks end up producing far beyond conventional pre-draft expectations. (In other words, you're trying to draft "sleepers.")

And to that end, the Chargers WR corps may provide one or two potential options. But before we can evaluate which Chargers WRs, if any, are worth drafting to fill out your roster, we need first look at their expected draft position. According to Antsports ADP data:

• K. McCardell (WR37, Pick 9.10 overall) -- Keenan McCardell is the most logical choice to finish atop the Chargers WR rankings at year end given his pedigree. Pro-rating his seven games played a year ago equates to 71 receptions for 898 yards over a full season. Considering he stepped into the Chargers offense midway through the year (via trade), one could make the case he will benefit from having a full training camp this season and be that much more effective. Yet, given McCardell's age (35), the fact he missed time last year with a hamstring injury, and the balance among the WR corps, I'm not sure it's prudent to assume he'll rebound demonstrably. Since you have to draft McCardell in the ninth round, the risk/reward isn't overly compelling.
• R. Caldwell (WR54, Pick 14.01 overall) -- On talent alone, many observers believe Reche Caldwell is the team's best wide receiver. Yet, he just can't seem to stay healthy. In three seasons, Caldwell has missed 19 games including 12 last season following a torn ACL. Before the injury, it seemed Caldwell had finally put it all together scoring TDs in three of his first five games, and averaging a whopping 17.2 yards per reception. According to published reports, Caldwell is almost fully recovered from his ACL tear and should enter the season as a starter opposite McCardell. There are worse things than drafting an NFL starting WR toward the very end of your draft, which current ADP suggests is possible with Caldwell.
• E. Parker (Undrafted, Outside of WR74) -- Eric Parker is the most puzzling of the group, in my opinion. He's small (6'0", 170 lbs.) and like Caldwell has been unable to stay healthy. But last year he played in 15 games and saved his best for last, enjoying two 100-yard games in his final three contests of the season. According to current depth charts, Parker enters the season behind McCardell and Caldwell. Will Parker be the team's first choice if either go down to injury? Probably so, but let's not forget that the Chargers drafted Vincent Jackson in April and, since Parker is no longer the team's primary return man on special teams, he could be fighting for a roster spot in camp.
• V. Jackson (Undrafted, Outside of WR74) -- Vincent Jackson is a huge (6'6", 235 pound) receiver who played at Northern Colorado; where he dominated. The Chargers chose him in the 2nd round believing his size and abilities far superseded the risks associated with his level of competition. Whether Jackson is ready to contribute this season is unclear, but the team didn't use a 2nd round pick on him to not figure into the team's plans.
• K. Osgood (Undrafted, Outside of WR74) -- Kassim Osgood is playing under a one-year deal this season, and would seem the odd man out in terms of expected playing time. He was thought to be a red zone option (6'5") to help offset the smaller Caldwell and Parker, but with the presence of Vincent Jackson and the emergence of All-World TE Antonio Gates, Osgood's other limitations make him less likely to play a regular role in red zone packages.

Positives

• McCardell has exceeded 1100 yards receiving five times in his career, is just two seasons removed from a top 10 fantasy finish, and was on pace for 70+ catches and almost 900 yards despite joining the Chargers midway through the season
• Caldwell and Parker are both capable of being productive receivers if healthy, and can be had toward the later part of your draft; so the risk of their not producing is minimized
• Drew Brees emerged as a Pro Bowl quarterback last season, and showed a willingness to spread the ball around

Negatives

• The Chargers don't throw the ball a lot, ranking just 28th in attempts last season; any fall off in their efficiency this year (fewest INTs, 6th most TDs) would be detrimental to the entire receiving corps
• Gates and Tomlinson guarantee that the Chargers WR corps is going to see a smaller piece of the total pie than most other WR units around the league
• No Chargers WR finished in the top 40 last season

Final Thoughts

The Chargers ranked 28th in pass attempts a season ago, have superior red zone options in Tomlinson and Gates, and no WR ranked among the top 40 fantasy WRs last season. For those reasons, you shouldn't count on any of them as every week contributors in 10- and 12-team leagues. But each of them, particularly the trio of McCardell, Caldwell and Parker, have had their moments and could be decent spot starters or bye week fill ins depending on their health and how the depth chart shakes out. Don't reach for any of them, but if you're looking for a 4th or 5th receiver in the final third of your draft, you could do worse than roster an NFL starter while many other league members are drafting backups.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

The Chargers’ WRs are very hard to do projections for this year since the pecking order among the top three receivers is unclear. Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker are currently listed as the starters, but Reche Caldwell may have more upside potential than either if he is healthy. Rookie second-round pick Vincent Jackson is the best athlete of the bunch and could make an immediate contribution. Moreover, the entire group of WRs must be devalued somewhat, at least for fantasy purposes; since the team’s true number one receiver is tight end Antonio Gates. So even if McCardell, Parker, or Caldwell separates himself from the rest of the WR pack, he will still be the number two option in the passing offense.

If you look at my projections, you will see that I don’t have any particular Charger WR projected to get more than 640 yards receiving. That doesn’t mean I don’t expect any WR to come close to 1,000 yards this year – it is very possible that one of them will. But the uncertainty over whom it is most likely to be keeps me from bumping any of their numbers up too high. To successfully predict, for example, that Eric Parker will have 1,000 yards receiving, I will have to be right twice: first, that at least one Charger WR will have 1,000 yards, and second, that it will be Parker rather than McCardell or Caldwell. Each proposition is in doubt, so the two-part combination is not sufficiently likely to justify projecting Parker for 1,000 yards -- and the same reasoning applies to McCardell and Caldwell as well. This does not mean, however, that each of the receivers lacks upside potential. As I mentioned, any of the three could end up with 1,000 yards. By the same token, however, any of the three could find himself the odd man out and end up with only 300 yards. Their projections are an average of all such realistic scenarios, weighted by their probabilities.

The upshot is that, while McCardell, Parker, and Caldwell are all too risky to target in the middle rounds of your draft, each has enough potential to warrant stashing at the bottom of your roster. If you pick the right one, you could have a 1,000-yard receiver for a bargain-basement price.

Positives

• Experienced WR who runs good routes and understands how to get open against a variety of defensive looks
• Has fine size, hands, and body control, and has excellent footwork near the sideline
• Has been very productive throughout his career, and could easily move up to #7 this year on the all-time receptions list

Negatives

• McCardell is 35 years old, and was never a speed-burner to begin with, so losing a step could render him ineffective
• Was slowed by a pulled hamstring last year, and is at the point in his career where injuries may start to nag at him more frequently
• Is more of a possession receiver than a big-play threat

Final Thoughts

None of the Chargers WRs are attractive mid-round fantasy draft picks this year, but McCardell, Parker, and Caldwell all have enough potential to make them worthy of late-round consideration. As a group, the Chargers WRs will probably have about 2000 yards receiving. That may be divided up fairly evenly, or one guy could end up with the lion’s share. Which guy? It’s impossible to predict at this point, but I would say that McCardell is the safest pick while Caldwell probably has the most upside potential. Meanwhile, Parker may have the best overall combination of big-play ability and steady production when healthy. I have the three rated fairly evenly this year, so my advice is not to be the first person in your draft to pick a Charger WR. Wait a couple rounds and pick the third one; you will get approximately the same value at a more reasonable price.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

brednbuddah:
I guess when you have such an uncommon talent as an Antonio Gates on your team, you really don't need to have a talented WR corp, see KC. However, one of those guys should step up and take some pressure of Gates. I think the guy to do it will be Eric Parker. He really came on strong at the end of last year by putting up 100yd/TD efforts in 2 of his last 3 regular season games. He even came up big against my Jets in the Playoffs with 9 rec for 93 yards. If you don't call that stepping up, you don't deserve an explanation.

tommyGunz:
I follow the Chargers as much as anyone on these boards (outside of MT), and I have NO CLUE who will end up leading the Bolts in receiving this year. Parker, McCardell, Caldwell, and VJ are all tossups, IMO. McCardell's the safest play, but the safe WR for the Bolts isn't going to win you a fantasy title.

Family Matters:
McCardell is always a little underrated in FF. The Warrick Dunn of WRs, he consistently puts up solid numbers year in year out. 2005 will be more of the same. Consider this, last year he was left on the sidelines in a dispute with TB. After being traded to the Chargers, he finally saw the field in week 7 and yet his receptions projected out to over 70. After having a half season and the playoffs under his belt, he should do even better this year.

isiahcleaves:
Look at it this way.... Caldwell has caught 48 passes for his entire 3 year career. He certainly didn't have much competition in SD for a starting spot, yet that was the best he could do (a lot of his poor stats are due to injuries). Heck... Parker caught more than that in his last 11 games last year. Again... if you're drafting early (before training camp begins).... Parker is an excellent late round pickup who has the ability to put up a 1000 yd season if given the opportunity.

Keenan McCardell Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	66	875	5
Maurile Tremblay	0	0	0	640	4
Message Board Consensus	0	0	55	658	4