Jason Wood's Thoughts

You don't need me to explain that Randy Moss is among the best players of his generation, and on pace to perhaps be the most productive fantasy receiver in history (or at least 2nd most to Jerry Rice, aka G.O.A.T.). Ultimately evaluating Randy Moss is a much simpler exercise than some may think, because of one simple thing. At least one person in your league is going to believe Moss will be as good, or better than he's ever been; and that person will be more than happy to draft Moss early and make him the 1st WR off the board.

My advice to you? Don't be that person.

Again, to be clear, I'm not suggesting Randy Moss won't be productive (I currently rank him 4th among fantasy receivers), but if you want him, you're going to HAVE to draft him early enough that anything short of being the top rated fantasy receiver just won't be good enough. Could he end up at the top of the fantasy WR rankings at season's end? Absolutely.

But do I think there's enough risk to Moss' situation that you're better off drafting another position in the late 1st/early 2nd round and grabbing one of the other elite fantasy WRs instead? Without question.

Here is a quick run through of the reasons why Moss is a bit too risky to spend a 1st or early 2nd round selection on:

• Moss is changing teams -- Typically receivers who switch teams need a period of adjustment as they get acclimated to a new QB, new coaches, and a new playbook. While Moss' talents may be enough to overcome the normal adjustment period (Terrell Owens did it), it's still a risk factor relative to the other elite fantasy WRs.
• Norv Turner is the head coach -- Norv Turner hasn't exactly had the Midas Touch when it comes to wide receiver production. In Turner's 8 years as an NFL head coach, a WR went for 1,000+ yards only five times. Granted, none of his previous WRs were close to the caliber of Randy Moss, but it's indicative of the kind of ball control, conservative offensive approach that Turner likes to employ.
• K. Collins is the quarterback -- Kerry Collins is not a good quarterback. While I believe Moss' presence will allow Collins to enjoy his best fantasy season to date, he's still a MAJOR step down from Daunte Culpepper. In 10 years as a pro, Collins has completed more than 60% of his passes ONCE, has never thrown for more than 22 TDs, has more career INTs than TDs, and is a career 55.9% passer. There are going to be times when Collins misses the mark. Not only might that impact Moss' upside, but it may well also challenge Moss' ability to control his emotions. If Moss got upset when Culpepper didn't get him the ball (64.4% career completions), how will he react with Collins at the helm?
• Moss is coming off an injury riddled season -- Judging from Moss' current ADP, fantasy leaguers seem to forget that he missed three games and was limited to playing the role of decoy in several others last season. In fact, for the year Moss ended up with only 49 touchdowns and 767 receiving yards. Hamstring injuries can linger/recur, and so much of Moss' production is tied into his ability to beat defenders downfield, it's something to watch for in training camp.

Positives

• The most dominant receiver of his generation, capable of scoring from anywhere on the field at any time
• The Raiders defense looks questionable again, which means Collins should be throwing the ball quite a bit to try to stay in games
• Moss will be motivated to dominate this year, to show the world that the Vikings made a mistake in parting ways with him

Negatives

• His situation has taken a turn for the worse (i.e., less effective QB, conservative head coach, no longer playing in a dome)
• Moss is coming of an injury plagued season and must avoid the recurrence of hamstring issues that have impacted so many other receivers in the past
• Moss has often been his own worst enemy, and losing and shoddy QB play have set him off in the past, this year he's likely to suffer both and it will be a true test of his maturity

Final Thoughts

Just to reiterate, I don't think Randy Moss is going to have a bad season...far from it. In fact, I have him finishing 4th among fantasy receivers. It's just that in order to justify taking him at his current ADP, you NEED Moss to be a lock for world class production, anything short and you've done yourself no favors in rostering him. The confluence of all the aforementioned risks is enough that I would let someone else roll the dice on him this year, and take your chances elsewhere. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Randy Moss takes his side show to the asylum known as Oakland, and given his boisterous and narcissistic behavior, he may very well fit right in. The Raiders seem to relish players with a sense of swagger and appear to openly embrace them.

For whatever the reason, Moss found his services no longer welcome in Minnesota, a team he produced some of the best WR numbers ever for seven seasons. The question from here on out is: Now what?

Moss has all the talent in the world when he musters up the conviction to fully harness it. However, his work ethic, ego, antics, theatrics, heart, and dedication all came into question over the years, and that was part of what prompted him to receive a one-way bus ticket to the West Coast—and the team didn’t even bother to tell Moss he was traded. Talk about don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Moss will be leaving the friendly confines of the Metrodome, which came with all of the following features, benefits, and accoutrements:

• A Top 10 team ranking in points scored and total yards in 6 of 7 seasons and a Top 10 team ranking in passing yards in all seven of Moss’ seasons played
• The highest ranking fantasy QB on a ppg basis each year since 2000 with 64 TD passes over the last two seasons, a lifetime TD to INT ratio of 129 to 74, and a 64.4% completion percentage
• An offensive scheme that has been successful for years and averaged 46 TDs scored per season in Moss’ tenure with the Vikings
• A locale where he averaged 14.6 fantasy ppg at home over his career
• A dome (Moss has averaged 15.1 fantasy ppg indoors)

Instead, he gets what’s behind door number two...

• A coach (Norv Turner) that has only twice had a WR with 10 or more TD receptions in a season: Henry Ellard (10) and Chris Chambers (11) in 20 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator
• An offensive system that has rushed the ball into the end zone a great deal (55% passing TD/45% rushing TD)
• A team that scored 34 TDs and ranked 18th in points scored last year and ranked dead last in rushing
• A QB whose best fantasy season was as the #8 QB (his only Top 10 ranking in 10 seasons), a career high of 22 TD, just two seasons with 3,500 passing yards, a career completion percentage of 55.9%, and more career INT than TD
• An open air stadium (Moss has averaged 11.7 ppg outdoors) and grass (Moss has averaged 11.3 ppg on grass)

To break things down into a simple equation:

Great WR (Moss) + Great QB (Culpepper) + Great System (Green/Tice) = Great fantasy production

Great WR (Moss) + Average QB (Collins) + Good System (Turner) = ?

Of course, Minnesota was not all kumquats and caviar as this makes it out to be, and Oakland is not quite the "Latch Key" kid that this makes it appear. There’s no substitute for talent, and if anyone can make an impact, it’s Randy Moss.

The other quirky thing about Moss is that he traditionally has performed much better indoors or on turf than outdoors or on grass.

In 75 Games Indoors:
5.4 receptions, 92.5 receiving yards, 0.95 TD, 15.1 fantasy ppg

In 40 games Outdoors:
5 receptions, 73.2 receiving yards, 0.7 TD, 11.7 fantasy ppg

In 78 Games on Turf:
5.6 receptions, 92.4 receiving yards, 0.95 TD, 15.1 fantasy ppg

In 37 Games on Grass:
4.7 receptions, 71.7 receiving yards, 0.68 TD, 11.3 fantasy ppg

I tried to find an explanation for this and could not. Initially, I checked to see if the defenses were dramatically askew but found:

Average Defensive Rank (Passing Yards)

• In 57 Home Dome Games: 16.9
• In 18 Road Dome Games: 21.2
• In 40 Road Outdoor Games: 14.7

I then looked into Daunte Culpepper’s numbers to see if maybe he was the culprit, but the difference in his performance between turf and grass was not even worth mentioning. The difference between indoors and outdoors was less than 10%. Bottom line, it looks like Moss plays better inside and on turf. This could be relevant because Oakland plays all of their games outside and only one game on turf this season. Then again, it could just be a coincidence.

Another factor that could negatively impact the Raiders this season is that Kerry Collins faced one of the easiest schedules for QB last year, with an opponents’ average ranking against the pass (yardage) of 21.5. The 2005 schedule could be a lot tougher, with an average ranking (based on 2004 results) of 15.8.

In his first 19 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Norv Turner’s teams averaged 472 rushes per season. In his first year in Oakland, the Raiders had 328 carries. Everyone expects Oakland to air it out, but grind it out has been Turner’s modus operandi. In a similar vein, prior to coming to Oakland, Turner’s teams averaged 20 passing TDs and 17 rushing TDs per season (a 55%/45% split). Almost everyone is giving the Raiders a 70%/30% split or weighted even more in favor toward passing TDs.

Positives

• Moss has averaged 13.7 fantasy ppg over his career, which projects to 220 points over a full season. He’s been the #1 WR three times and ranked in the Top 5 six straight years prior to last year. In poker terms, he’s got the nut
• Moss has proven to be the ultimate impact player. He can single-handedly alter a game and cause defenses to game plan around him. That won’t change just because he’s in Oakland
• The Raiders offense seems primed for a breakout season, and the porous Oakland defense will ensure high scoring affairs and inflated passing totals

Negatives

• Oakland’s talent level and offensive passing scheme may not be on par with Minnesota’s. The Raiders should run much more than last year, and the team could actually have FEWER passing attempts. Moss only wishes he could play AGAINST Oakland.
• Changes in stadium and field conditions could come into play. Moss has produced at a performance level 30% lower outdoors and on grass.
• Although I did not mention it above, only one Top 10 WR has switched teams and outperformed his baseline Top 10 performance level his first year on his new team. (Irving Fryar going from Miami to Philadelphia) Note: Small sample size + others were not Randy Moss = probably not that big a deal)

Final Thoughts

One has to wonder if there was more to the Oakland trade than meets the eye. On the surface, being a royal pain in the derrière seems like a suspect reason to trade one of the game’s all-time greatest receivers. Conspiracy theorists will ponder whether Moss has residual health issues stemming from his nagging ankle and hamstring injuries from the last two seasons.

Assuming Moss can stay healthy, he could easily negate all the issues I presented here. However, it could take some time to develop a working rapport with his new team (in addition to the possibility that his new team may not be as good offensively as his old one).

We simply do not know how the Raiders offense will function with Moss in the lineup, nor do we know what the chemistry will be like between Moss and new QB Kerry Collins. On paper, Collins appears to be capable of a 4,000/30 season—except that there have only been 23 such seasons to date accomplished by a total of 14 QBs. Those levels may be attainable, but one has to wonder if Kerry Collins can put it all together to perform at an elite level on a weekly basis.

Based on everything I’ve seen and researched, I don’t see Moss exceeding his baseline average of fantasy production he established in Minnesota (220 fantasy points). In fact, I would conclude that the data would point to Moss producing at a level a fair amount below that.

Some have suggested that Moss’ numbers this year could approach all-time levels. That seems extremely unlikely. Several people in the Moss Player Spotlight thread projected him at over 300 fantasy points this year, and I frankly cannot see that happening.

Moss’ talent and skill level could trump all the factors that may be predicting a dip in his performance. However, I do believe that when combined together, Moss will not do as well this year as he has done in Minnesota. In fact, Moss could be one of the most over hyped players of the season. His current ADP as the #1 WR and #10 player overall is earlier than in other seasons when there was hardly any risk at all in taking him that early. As opposed to other seasons, I would not recommend investing a first round pick in Moss in a standard scoring league, and that’s what it’s going to take to get him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

BrickTop:
A couple of things - Collins can throw the deep ball well, but he's streaky. Moss has made just about every QB he's played with look good, but I don't trust Collins. He seems to have problems mentally getting over mistakes, and he goes into serious funks. I'd hate to have Moss as my #1 when Collins disappears for 2 or 3 weeks, throwing picks to wide open defenders instead of Moss.

radballs:
Last year, I was really down on Terrell Owens because he was switching teams. I had completed a study on WRs switching teams and there was hardly ever a good performance following a move to another team. He proved me wrong and I now believe that stud WRs can overcome such a change in team philosophy and coaching. Moss will still put up incredible numbers despite going to Oakland.

jurb26:
There has not been a single situation that Moss has faced in his NFL career and not gotten through with flying colors. His move to Oakland will be no different. Remember, this is the only WR in the NFL that is actually BETTER than TO.

Bull Dozier:
Collins has been a journeyman during his career, and I did a brief analysis in another thread of his leading receivers through the years (obviously, none of which were near as talented as Moss). Collins has shown that he has not suffered from switching teams, and has been able to adjust to new receivers. Moss has played with several QBs during his career, albeit all in the same offense for the most part. However, the differences in the game of Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Todd Bouman, Gus Frerotte, and Daunte Culpepper are quite different and Moss has produced with each and every one of those players. Moss will be able to produce with Collins.

Randy Moss Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	85	1275	12
David Yudkin	0	0	90	1260	11
Message Board Consensus	0	0	88	1400	14