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Survivor I - BassNBrew Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - James scored 308 points in this scoring system last year while Manning was posting passing numbers the likes rarely seen before. In 14 of his 15 meaningful games, James score at least 15 fantasy points. James has consistently caught over 50 balls per season and his yards per carry and reception have returned to career bests after recovering from his season ending injury in 2001. Not only is James a safe pick with little downside, I expect Indy’s offense to tilt back towards the ground game this year. Of course this is another contract year for James. Negatives - James has missed time in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Draft Strategy - I was very relieved that the Holmes temptation was removed by Raidergil. I probably would have drafted James anyway as he set the table for the rest of the draft.
Positives - Jones posted monster numbers last year in a half season last year and showed great durability after his initial injury last year. I anticipate more involvement for Julius in the passing game as Richie Anderson won’t be a factor this year. As the 15th RB selected in this draft, Jones offered both the potential to be a top ten fantasy back and comes with low miles under the hood. In his last 7 games of 2004, Jones’ post three 25+ point fantasy games (two of those 30+ in this format). Those are the type of games that are money in a best start format. Negatives - The fact that Dallas signed Anthony Thomas as a free agent and spent a high pick on Marion Barber is a concern. If Jones finds his way into Parcells’ doghouse, this pick will be a bust. In his rookie campaign, Jones lost time to injury on two occasions. Draft Strategy - I had targeted Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, or Terrell Owens at this spot. Unfortunately all had been selected, however, both Manning and Culpepper were jumped on early which sent several quality RBs dropping into my lap. There were two backs that I liked better at this spot, but I felt pretty confident that one would make it back to me, where Jones would likely be gone based on his FBG ranking.
Positives - Speed and big play ability. Bell has top five fantasy running back potential. The Denver system has been a haven for stud RBs year after year. Denver’s passing game has plenty of weapons to open up the field for Bell to find space to utilize his speed. Negatives - Mike Shanahan is his coach. Of course Mike Shanahan could be an issue. Did I mention Mike Shanahan? Griffin, Anderson, Dayne, Clarett, and likely some other RB we haven’t heard of. Draft Strategy - You’re not going to win a league with this play all, best record format without hitting some homeruns. Bell is the poster boy of fantasy homerun swings this year. I really felt like someone with his potential was a steal in the 3rd round. By selecting Bell as my third RB, I felt comfortable that I was virtually set at RB and even had a solid flex play in my holster. I wasn’t the least bit tempted to select a WR here as I had several top ten WR candidates buried down the FBG ranking list.
Positives - Eight FBG writers that I respect (and one I don’t) see Boldin as being undervalued this year. People forget that Boldin had one of the greatest rookie years ever and finished as the #4 ranked fantasy WR in 2003. Last year he posted serviceable numbers despite returning from a serious knee injury and running after wound ducks from John Navarre and Shaun King. Warner should definite improve the quantity and quality of Boldin’s receiving opportunities. Negatives - Fitzgerald could blossom into the primary WR for the Cardinals as he definitely has a better pedigree. While the QB situation in Arizona has improved, without solid o-line play in the desert, Warner could end up being the proverbial deer in the phoenix. Draft Strategy - With my RB situation well in hand, it was time to load up on some WRs. When reviewing the FBG rankings, I liked Boldin as well as any of the nine WRs ranked in front of him.
Positives - If you’ve watched Smith play as much as I have, you’ll realize that he’s one of the best WRs in the game. Smith is fearless over the middle and would sooner slug a team mate then avoid contact by dodging out of bounds. He’s even as fast as a speeding bullet and will leap over CBs in single bound. From week 6-16 in 2003, (he only played a quarter or so in week 17 as the game meant nothing), the worst statistical day for Smith was 4-50. If you expand those 11 games into an entire season you get 106-1400-9. Based on the 2005 FBG projections this would put Smith in the #5 to #6 range with Johnson and Horn. Negatives - The qualities that make Smith one of the best WRs in the league as tend to make him a huge injury risk. Some will point to the loss of Muhammad as a negative, but I see it as a non factor. Draft Strategy - As soon as I mapped out my draft, I was relying on the low FBG ranking to drop Smith into my lap. He’s a third round talent that I felt comfortable would last until round five. Having this trump card allowed me to be aggressive with my third round pick.
Positives - Chambers has all the skills to be an elite NFL WR. All that is missing is a serviceable QB. I holding out hope that Frerotte is the missing link or possibly another year of seasoning for AJ Feeley makes a difference. While Chambers’ schedule isn’t soft in 2005, it won’t be the brutal one the Dolphins faced in 2004. Negatives - Chambers is frequently found more regularly on the back of a milk carton then appearing on ESPN’s Prime Time. Elite WRs should be a factor more often then Chambers is. Fortunately I won’t have to pick which weeks to start him in this format and can cover his absences with depth at the WR position. Draft Strategy - I really liked Deion Branch better at this spot, but his bye matched Smith’s and I thought he would still be around when I drafted five picks later. My plan was to grab Chambers and slough Branch to the next round; unfortunately Mikey T caused that to blow up in my face.
Positives - Suggs closed out the 2004 season with rushing performances of 105, 143, and 131 yards. He also had one game earlier in the season where he posted 100 yards receiving. Suggs is definitely the most talented back on Cleveland’s roster. Negatives - Combine the durability of Fred Taylor with Keyshawn Johnson’s nose for the end zone and you would have a back that’s demonstrated more than Suggs. The addition of Droughns via trade from Denver will cut into Suggs’ playing time limiting his upside. Draft Strategy - With the Branch plan dead in the water, I was forced to re-evaluate my situation. I had about 10 WRs all in the same tier that I felt I could wait on. The board was littered with good QBs so I felt no urgency to go that direction. Even though I felt strong at RB, I saw huge value in Suggs and Foster and decided that by taking a RB here that I could wrap up that position and not have to chase long shots to play or play injury roulette later in the draft. Suggs situation is slight less cloudy then Foster’s.
Positives - As the 11th QB selected in this draft, I felt that I had found decent value selecting my first QB in the 8th round. After an abysmal fantasy start in 2005, Hasselbeck finished the year strong with three touchdowns in 4 of his last 7 games. The lost of Robinson to the local AA chapter will be more than covered by the addition of Joe Jurevicius and Jerome Pathon. Playing the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals twice each year lends itself to some nice matchups liberally sprinkled throughout the season. Negatives - I’m hard pressed to find any negatives about Hasselbeck given where he was selected in this draft. Now that the Alexander situation has been temporarily sorted out, paint a downside scenario has become very difficult. Draft Strategy - Hasselbeck was the last QB in a tier of proven performers and seemed like a table pounding buy at 8.10. After surveying the teams behind me, I didn’t think he would make it back to me. I really wanted Moss or Stokley to solidify my WR corps with another explosive option, but felt one would be there at 9.3. As it turned out, strategically Hasselbeck was my worst pick of the draft and a classic case of being tempting by low hanging fruit and veering from a solid plan.
Positives - Johnson caught 82 balls for 825 yards last year to ranked 4th in TE receptions and receiving yards. The current FBG projections show a 25% reduction in production from last year’s output to 2005, yet still leave Johnson ranked 7th in this format. These numbers add up to a very safe selection as the ninth TE off the board in the ninth round. Negatives - Johnson’s career has been plagued with injuries and he’s appears to have an allergic reaction to end zone paint. A rookie QB debuting in San Francisco can be argued as both a pro and con for Johnson, but there’s no arguing that the Niner’s offense in general will be very anemic. Draft Strategy - With Moss and Stokley disappearing just out of reach, I was reeling at this point. I desperately wanted to take a WR here, but didn’t see any value anywhere on the board. I took a couple of deep breaths and took stock of the situation. My sleeper QBs would be around for a while, but Eric Johnson was still sitting out there head and shoulders above his peers at the position.
Positives - After doing in depth statistical analysis while preparing for this draft, I found a very interesting trend regarding 7th year WRs in a 2nd year West Coast offense that pointed to Price as a super sleeper in 2005. Yeah, right…actually if I’d known that I’d have to come up with some positives in a write-up about Price before the draft, I wouldn’t have made this selection. Negatives - The Falcons passing attack has been woefully the last two years. Since this draft occurred, Price has been demoted to the bench with the coach questioning his toughness. Hopefully that will ignite a fire under his rear to perform up to the level which he’s being paid. Draft Strategy - After my last blunder, I felt like I needed to load up at WR to recover. QB could wait as people were starting to dip into the RB lottery abyss and actually draft defenses for some unknown reason, which was buying me time. Obviously the WR ranks were pretty much picked over by this time.
Positives - Bryant finished a 2004 season of turmoil with stats of 58-812-4. Not shabby production for a WR that can be had this late in the draft. Two of those games in 2004 resulted in 30+ point outputs in this format, which is the type of production you like to see in a best starter league. Some of the quotes attributed to Bryant this off season indicate that he’s finally matured and that we’ll finally see the output that he’s capable of. Negatives - The Cleveland offense is a mess and the schedule always finds Baltimore and Pittsburgh appearing twice. Trent Dilfer at the helm certainly will never be mistaken for Peyton Manning. Draft Strategy - Going into the draft I had targeted Griese at this spot as my first QB. Having taken the luxury of Hasselbeck early, I still felt like depth at WR would be a key to winning this league. We can only start one QB, but can potentially start 4 WRs. Bryant was the last WR left on the board projected by FBG to post 140 points and the bottom was falling fast at this position.
Positives - Boston has played 3 full seasons since 2000 and posted 200 fantasy points in this format in each of those years, peaking at 300+ points. Even in his partial 2002 season he was on pace for 200+ points. Basically every time Boston has been on the field, he’s produced like a top 25 WR. That’s the type of potential I like to see in my WR6. Negatives - Well documented…steroids, injuries, fragile ego, Miami quarterbacks. Draft Strategy - There was a huge QB run since my last pick which included Griese. This pick would become a mini turning point of my draft. I decided not to jump on the end of the QB run and wait on my sleepers until later. At this time I was looking for a guy who could potentially be the difference maker that takes me to a title. There wasn’t a more physically talented player left on the board then Boston.
Positives - Robinson finished ranked in the 30’s last year at his position on a team that feature both Burleson and Moss in the top 20, which makes him a great value pick this late in the draft. With Moss departing to Oakland, there are currently a pile of Viking receptions available for the taking to the Viking wide out that jumps up to the occasion. With Culpepper’s ability to throw the deep ball, Robinson will likely post several usable 20+ point games. Negatives - Robinson has been a perennial underachiever since his huge year all the way back in 1999 for Chicago. Yes, it’s been that long. Draft Strategy - Seems like I’ve developed an appetite for WRs, this being the fourth selected in the last four picks. This seemed like the time for one last homerun swing before getting on with the chore of filling out the rest of the roster.
Positives - Comments from FBG.com: Todd Pinkston, entering his sixth season, had found his role in Philadelphia as a complementary offensive player. Drafted with an eye toward becoming the team’s lead receiver, he was mercifully relegated to secondary status with the acquisition of Terrell Owens. Although his overall numbers weren’t gaudy (36 receptions for 676 yards and one touchdown), his career best 18.8 yards per reception were crucial to keeping defenses honest and creating the underneath opportunities that Terrell Owens, Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith capitalized upon. Although he wasn't a multi-dimensional receiving threat, his season-ending Achilles tear will certainly impact the overall productivity of the Eagles passing game. Negatives - Comments from FBG.com: The only negative fantasy owners need concern themselves with is Pinkston's season ending injury during the early days of training camp. Pinkston tore his Achilles tendon and is lost for the entire 2005 season. For those in dynasty leagues looking beyond 2005, one of Pinkston’s flaws is evident upon first laying eyes on him; his frame. Pinkston is among the skinniest players in the league, which limits his ability to get off the line when facing press coverage, and makes it all but impossible to outmuscle defenders for jump ball situations. Pinkston’s other major flaw is only evident when breaking down film; he’s desperately afraid of taking a big hit. His fear of contact and failure to lay out for several catchable balls the last few seasons have soured Eagles fans against him, and likely gives QB Donovan McNabb pause on occasion, as well. Draft Strategy - n/a
Positives - Vinny Testaverde finished 2004 as the 16th ranked fantasy QB. There are plenty of knocks against Bledsoe, but surely his talents haven’t eroded beyond Vinny’s. Parcells likes his veteran QBs and definitely has a win now mentality which bodes well for Bledsoe’s 2005 outlook. A promising young RB, a star at TE, and a solid veteran WR corps should provide Bledsoe plenty of weapons. Negatives - To steal a thought from Jason Wood, Bledsoe was released by Buffalo for a guy with 5 career passes (two of those passes being to an unknown target). Of course we all know the Brady story. Maybe this all bodes well for Drew Henson. Draft Strategy - I’ve pushed my luck as long as possible at QB and a back up to Hasselbeck was now a must. I fully expect Bledsoe to surprise people with some big fantasy weeks in 2005 and to look back as the 24th QB selected being a great sleeper pick in this format.
Positives - Everything out of the Panther's camp has talked about the TE position being primarily one of a blocker. I don't buy everything I read and look for Jones' size, hands, and speed to be incorporated into the red zone package. At 6'4" Freddie Jones towers over the entire Panther's WR corps. Let's not forget that the Panther's actually used Julius Peppers as a target in last year's goal line packages. I expect Jones to pick a portion of Muhammad's production as talent and necessity win out over philosophy. Negatives - He might up and retire at the drop of a hat. Draft Strategy - I was confident that I crushing the competition at this point in the draft, so I figured adding a guy collecting a retirement check will level the playing field and keep people interested in this competition.
Positives - With weapons like Chambers, McMichael, Booker, and Boston on the roster and a significant upgrade at RB this year, the Miami offense could be potentially potent. Frerotte acquitted himself well in relief of Culpepper the last couple of years when handed the keys to an offensive machine. Negatives - As of the time I’m penning this, Frerotte has still not been named the started over Feeley and may end up carrying the clipboard for my team. Frerotte has been a career journeyman for the last decade. Draft Strategy - Frerotte and Garcia are my two biggest sleeper QBs. Given the weapons each has at WR, either could post top ten weekly numbers on a regular basis if they’re starting. Raidergil already had 3 QBs and Mikey T was sitting on Ramsey with a week 3 bye so I pulled the trigger on Frerotte with his week 4 bye and figured Garcia would come back to me on the return.
Positives - Reunification with his previous coach from days gone by in San Francisco. I’m not so much sold on Garcia as I’m sold on Williams, Williams, Rogers, Pollard, and Jones. If Garcia does see some playing time, history says he’ll vulture some ground TDs which will be a nice bonus. Negatives - Based on Garcia’s performance last year, not only did he leave his heart in San Francisco, he left his game there as well. With Harrington being paid franchise QB money, he will be given every chance to succeed. Draft Strategy - These QBs are cheap and could possibly end up posting very nice numbers. It’s not unreasonable to think that my lineup may on several occasions have 4 starting NFL QBs capable of posting outstanding numbers.
Positives - The additions of LB Kendrell Bell, CB Patrick Surtain, and S Sammy Knight will add some big play to the Chiefs. Of course having Dante Hall returning kicks adds a lot of potential for points contribution from the special teams. The Chiefs finished 2004 in the top 10 in sacks. Negatives - Kansas City scored only one defensive TD last year. Of course the NFL leader posted five, a mere difference of 24 fantasy points. Draft Strategy - Waited as long as I could on a defense and still was able to draft one that has great potential to score in this format. With scoring revolving almost solely around turnovers, sacks, and TDs, securing a defense early was a wasted pick in my opinion. I actually prefer defenses that will be playing in shootouts in this format as it tends to lead to more interceptions and sacks.
Positives - Brown converted 92% of his field goals in 2004 and was perfect in his PATs. I see no improvement in the Seahawks defense from last year and their division will lend itself to some high scoring games. Negatives - The rainy weather in Seattle doesn’t bode well for the kicking game…of course for some reason it never rains when the Seahawks play. Draft Strategy - I’m running out of picks. Actually I was targeting Brown primarily because I had drafted Hasselbeck earlier. If a drive stalls for Hasselbeck, I’ll still pick up some consolation points.
Positives - A former top ten NFL draft pick blessed with speed. Beyond that, the only positive that makes this pick worthwhile is that he’s upgrading from Boller to Culpepper at the QB position. This pick has a tremendous amount of upside for a WR selected in the 20th round. Negatives - For four years Taylor has failed to sniff meeting expectations. At some point in time he will just need to be written off as an injury prone NFL bust. Draft Strategy - Pretty much everyone is filling out there rosters by now and has one wildcard pick left. I felt comfortable that a serviceable defense and kicker would be on the board in the next tow rounds so I decided to pull the trigger on my last flier. With Robinson on board I wanted to take one last foray into Culpepper’s gaudy numbers. I really see Minnesota’s WR2 being a veteran with Williamson being the WR3. Taylor was a second shot at that WR2 production in a high flying offense.
Positives - San Diego returns all 11 defensive starters and has a week 10 bye. Negatives - Finished just about dead last in sacks as a team in 2004 and lacks big play talent. Draft Strategy - I had no one with a week 10 bye on my roster, so this selection provided some balance in that area. Every week when my arsenal has an empty chamber or two, there’s at least an opportunity that San Diego can contribute to my weekly score. Defense is a crap shoot any way.
Positives - With the scoring format rewarding long field goals, I tried to target a kicker late with a track record of success in making long kicks. In 2003 Hall kicked four 50+ yard field goals and six 40-49 yard field goals. Negatives - Hall has missed time due to injuries and the Redskins offense was anemic in 2004. Last year three Washington kickers combined to score a mere 90 points. Draft Strategy - Need two kickers, Hall is a kicker. I refer to TE/K/D as the trash positions. All six of my “trash” selections have different bye weeks, so I’ll always have five of them posting numbers for me each week, which will likely convert several potential close losses to wins in this format.
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