Survivor I - Warrick Dunn Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD	FPT	RANK
2002	230	927	7	50	377	2	184.4	19
2003	125	672	3	37	336	2	130.8	27
2004	265	1106	9	29	294	0	194.0	15

Positives - Dunn is a solid performer, and is the #1 RB on the #1 Rushing Team in the NFL. He is coming off his best season with the Falcons, posting 1100 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, and 30 receptions, with nine TDs. Due to the constant threat of Vick in the backfield, defenses can not key on Dunn. He is undervalued in drafts everywhere, with and ADP of 50 (RB 28) this year. T.J. Duckett is usually drafted higher, and usually disappoints. Additionally, Vick has stated that he is going to try to continue his evolution into a pocket passer this year, which should increase Dunn’s role on the ground and out of the backfield.

Negatives - Dunn may be the #1 RB on the #1 Rushing Team, but that team also includes Michael “Mike” Vick. Dunn will lose his share of yards and red zone touches to Vick, and possibly some goal line and short yardage carries to Duckett. A true RBBC situation, without injury to Duckett, Dunn will probably not crack the top 15 RBs.

Draft Strategy - The Gouda was licking his chops as his third round pick approached and Rudi Johnson was still on the board. However, those dreams were shattered when Worm took what should be considered the steal of the draft two picks before me. I needed another RB before all the second-tier choices were gone, and took Dunn as the 21st RB selected. Dunn is consistently undervalued in drafts. Last year he would have finished around the #15 RB in this scoring system, but was still available with 20 RBs off the board. True, he must contend with the RBBC, but if Duckett gets injured, he could creep into the top 10.