Survivor I - Ahman Green Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD	FPT	RANK
2002	286	1240	7	57	393	2	217.3	13
2003	355	1883	15	50	367	5	345.0	2
2004	259	1163	7	40	275	1	196.8	13

Positives - I was surprised to find Green still available at this point, especially in a scoring system that awards 1 point per reception. Green is able to rack up large chunks of yardage by being utilized in both the running and passing games. Over the last 4 years, Green has finished in the top 3 at his position twice. I think Green Bay will make every effort to emphasize the run once again this year. Although I expect Najeh Davenport to receive a small share of the rushing load, I expect Green to improve on the worse than expected performance he posted last year which was primarily a result of failing to reach 20 carries in 8 games. Green is also in the last year of his contract and should be motivated to attempt to earn one more payday.

Negatives - Green Bay lost 2 starting offensive lineman and signed lesser quality replacements. Green Bay also did not effectively address some defensive weaknesses which could cause them to fall behind often and negatively impact the running game as they would need to pass more to catch up. Green is also 28 and could be nearing the beginning of the end. Davenport, who has been impressive in limited opportunities, is waiting in the wings to take over should Green struggle. Off the field, there is an unresolved domestic violence case pending which could prompt a response from the league, should Green be found guilty.

Draft Strategy - I was targeting a RB2 at this spot and was fortunate to find Green available. Green underperformed last year compared to previous years while Green Bay featured the passing game more than in recent seasons. Even with all the struggles in Green Bay last year, Green still finished ranked 13th and I was able to take him as the 17th RB off the board. I considered Rudi Johnson at this point, but Johnson is not heavily involved in the passing game and had the second most carries in the league last year which may limit his upside. Even if Green only duplicates last year’s performance, he is a good value pick at this point. If Green can modestly improve on last years numbers, he’s a potential top ten RB and a steal as the last pick of the second round. With Tomlinson and Green in tow, I like my team’s prospects so far.