Survivor I - Priest Holmes Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD	FPT	RANK
2002	313	1615	21	70	672	3	372.7	1
2003	320	1420	27	74	690	0	373.0	1
2004	196	892	14	19	187	1	197.9	12

Positives - When healthy Priest Holmes is unquestionably the number 1 player in fantasy football. Over the past 4 years Holmes has averaged 22.6 points per game finishing those seasons as the #2, 1, 1 and 12 fantasy running back in overall points – and of course last year’s total was gained in a mere 8 games. In the past 3 seasons alone Holmes has scored a ridiculous 66 TDs, 12 more than second place Shaun Alexander. Holmes is the centerpiece of a Kansas City offense that finished second only to Indianapolis in offensive TDs scored. With 10 time Pro Bowl OG Will Shields deciding to return for another year the Chiefs will again possess the best offensive line in football.

Negatives - Obviously the biggest negative is the injury risk. Holmes missed the second half of last year with strained knee ligaments. He has also had 2 previous knee injuries and torn hip muscles that cut his 2002 short. He is 32 and, although he hasn’t carried the same load as other’s his age, he is still reaching the age where a sudden drop off can occur. Holmes was used much less in the passing game last year only catching 19 balls after averaging 68 per season in the previous 3 years. Backup Larry Johnson had some huge games finishing out last year and could definitely be used more often in an attempt to keep Priest healthy.

Draft Strategy - I wrestled with the decision whether to take the most reliable stud in fantasy, Shaun Alexander, or the most explosive in Holmes. I decided since I was basically playing with house money in this contest to go for broke. Nothing against the 14-16 TD’s you are assured out of Alexander, but at number 2 overall Priest still offers upside. Last year was Alexander’s best at 307 points, meanwhile in each of the previous 2 seasons, Holmes scored 373 and was on pace for 396 last year. That is just too much potential for me to pass up.