Survivor I - Larry Johnson Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD	FPT	RANK
2003	20	85	1	1	2	0	14.7	104
2004	120	581	9	22	278	2	151.9	26

Positives - Larry Johnson would be a top ten RB were it not for the fact that he plays behind who many consider THE top RB. He put up “Priest-like” numbers ( 5 TDs) in his last three starts at the end of the season running behind an excellent KC offensive line. He is THE most valuable back-up and possibly could see some goal line carries. Priest has been dinged up at some point in the season the last three years. If that happens again (and Priest is almost 32), Johnson’s value would sore.

Negatives - Simply put – he is a back-up! And you do not typically want to make this type of move this early on in the draft. In a worse case scenario, Johnson and all his talent fester on the sidelines. And I am not a big proponent of rooting for someone to get hurt, and this exactly where I might find myself - reveling in someone else’s misfortune if it comes to past. It’s much more fun to root FOR players than AGAINST them. This will either be the dumbest pick I could make or the savviest. But regardless, it is an early gamble. Its guys like this in these situations that could make you scratch your head at the end of the season wondering why you ever picked him for your #6 overall.

Draft Strategy - Here was my first deviation from apparent value, but with strategy still behind my thinking in this pick. Jake Plummer was the apparent value pick yet his ADP was 7.09. So I took a chance that Plummer would still be there at the turn. I decided to grab another RB (still being pretty deficient at that position). Since Larry Johnson’s ADP was 6.09 and Priest’s owner was selecting in two more picks, I decided to steal Priest’s “backup”. This was a gamble, but one that could pay off if Priest goes down. My deficiency at RB would turn into a decided strength if this happened and it would make the owner of Priest very vulnerable. In drafting “backup RBs”, it’s important to look for RBs who are good runners, RBs who play behind injury prone starters, or RBs who have great offensive lines. Larry Johnson fits all three categories. I would follow this same strategy with RBs the remainder of the draft.