Survivor I - Thomas Jones Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD	FPT	RANK
2002	138	511	2	20	113	0	74.4	45
2003	137	627	3	24	180	0	98.7	38
2004	240	948	7	56	427	0	179.5	19

Positives - Jones has talent and finally realized some potential year before last toward the end of the season with Tampa Bay and last year with Chicago before Grossman went down. His value is currently low because of the specter of Cedric Benson. But he has been declared the starter by Lovie Smith since Cedric Benson still has not signed with the Bears and no deal is in place. If you look at Onterrio Smith’s first year in the NFL, one of the critiques of him was that he could not pick up on the pass blocking schemes. I find it hard to believe that Benson (even if he could replace Jones as the starting RB) could similarly learn these subtle nuances while not in camp; essentially handing the starting job to Jones. If Jones starts, then his value would increase by from his current projected #24 ranking into an even higher ranking.

Negatives - Though I do not feel Cedric Benson is as big a threat as some think, he is still a threat, and some think Benson is better suited for the Bear’s offense. And grabbing Jones with my #5 pick (although the best RB on the board at this point – and I desperately needed another RB) when his ADP is 8.11 is a little hard to swallow. Jones production did go down when Grossman went down, and even if Jones won the starting job, there is still Benson looking over his shoulder waiting to come into the game; especially if the Bear’s season turns “south” and they are eliminated from the playoffs early in the season. I would think Benson would get the reps in this scenario.

Draft Strategy - Well, my strategy sort of worked. There was a mini-run on WRs. Two RBs did actually leave the board between my 4th and 5th pick, but none ranked higher than Thomas Jones. So I grabbed that second RB. I felt fortunate to get a RB that was as productive as Jones was last year and a RB that was possibly ranked lower than he should be (and will be in August IMHO) once the dust settles and everyone realizes that Cedric Benson has yet to play a down in the NFL.