Survivor I - Marvin88 Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Pick 1.4: RB Deuce McAllister - NO

Positives - Big. Strong. Fast. When Deuce McAllister was healthy in 2003, he ran for 1,600 plus yards on 350 some odd carries with 8 TD's. He also caught 69 passes for 515 yards. He missed time last year due to an ankle injury, but still managed a 1,000 yards in a struggling Saints offense that was always playing from behind and Deuce was not always the first option; and this playing dinged up most of the season. His three year average as a starter is still 300/1,300/10 rushing and 50/350/1 receiving. That's pretty solid numbers from a "not that highly rated" offense. With Deuce healthy, news that the Saints will try to rely more on the running game this season, and an offensive line that looks to have improved, Deuce could be poised to put up numbers close (if not beyond) those of 2003.

Negatives - Since it appears that “hold out” rumors have pretty much abated, the only negative I see for McAllister is one of the things that hurt him last year - the Saints get behind early and often because of a bad defense and are forced to abandon the run. But oddly enough, due to the particular scoring system of this Survivor League, even this negative could turn into a positive as Deuce could catch more passes.

Draft Strategy - The question here might be “Why not Shawn Alexander whose ADP is 1.02?” The answer for me is that he just doesn’t catch enough passes, and with some uncertainty over a possible “hold out”, Deuce is the safer pick. In fact, after LT, Priest, and Edge were off the table, more logical choices might have been Westbrook or D. Davis. But I did not want to rely too heavily on receptions from Westbrook and I still do not feel that Davis is as durable as Deuce. A stud RB with this pick would free me up to pursue whatever the draft brought my way with my remaining picks and not force me to necessarily lock in on RBs in the next two rounds.

Pick 2.9: WR Marvin Harrison - IND

Positives - Of course, Marvin88 had to have his namesake. But this was not a “homer” pick. Harrison’s consistency speaks for itself over the years catching almost 33% of Manning’s TD passes last year. He is elusive and runs flawless pass routes, which makes him so deadly. Throw in his repore with Manning and you have almost an unstoppable WR. He is deceptively fast and has a knack for knowing when to “lay down” avoiding the big hit, thus preserving his health. Since 1999, he has caught over 100 passes 5 out of 7 years with two “blip” years of 86 and 94 catches.

Negatives - The only negative I see in Harrison is size. Although he is elusive, it only takes one solid hit by someone like a Rodney Harrison (who head hunts Harrison every chance he gets) to put Marvin on the sidelines. He is beginning to get up there in age also as he’ll turn 33 around the start of the season.

Draft Strategy - Here is where having a high draft pick benefited me. With Deuce already in the fold, I could really look for value. At this point there were already (14) RBs off the board. Instead of falling in lock step with the RB run, I decided to couple my 2nd and 3rd round picks with stud WRs hoping that RBs would continue to leave the board until my 3rd round pick. Harrison was the best WR left on the board at this point (rated 5th), but could arguably be considered a safer pick over a TO who is threatening to “holdout” and, dare I say, Randy Moss who must begin to gel with a new (sometimes erratic) QB in Kerry Collins. There’s no doubting the offensive fire power of the Colts and it is simply a matter of who is going to catch the TDs. Marvin will get his share.

Pick 3.4: WR Reggie Wayne - IND

Positives - Reggie Wayne’s numbers have consistently improved year over year since his entry into the league in 2001. Peyton Manning threw (49) TDs last year. Wayne caught almost 25% of these. Manning is projected to drop 20% in TD production to (40) – that’s a pretty huge anticipated drop, but understandable. But adjust Wayne’s totals accordingly and he still catches 8-9 TDs. That’s still pretty strong. He really seemed to have a better rapore with Manning last year than in previous years. He is also playing for a new contract.

Negatives - Wayne is still considered the #2 WR on the team. So it is difficult to select a #2 WR with a #3 pick even though the production is there. Wayne can also be a little inconsistent where he seems to disappear during certain games for no reason. Also, BYE week problems right off the bat with the WRs having both Harrison and Wayne.

Draft Strategy - I’m sure that I will get stares like I have four heads with this pick! But follow me here. I stated before that “there’s no doubting the offensive fire power of the Colts and it is simply a matter of who is going to catch the TDs.” And, yes, Marvin will get his share. But so will Wayne. And keep in mind the most important thing, in the Survivor format you do not have to start players. Simply your best three WRs scores are taken. In that scenario, Wayne not only becomes insurance for Harrison (if Harrison gets hurt, then Wayne would become more valuable), but if Wayne happens to catch the TDs on a given Sunday, then I am still getting the majority of Manning’s passing TDs (around 60% to be exact). That means if Manning throws (40) TDs as projected, then I would receive (26) of those TDs which averages to just under two per week. Another way to look at it – the best RB left on the board at this point was Rudi Johnson projected for 237 points. Wayne is projected for 272 points. And in the Survivor scoring system, 6 catches by Reggie would equal 60 yards rushing by Rudi.

Pick 4.9: WR Roy Williams - DET

Positives - Williams only started in 11 games as a rookie WR last season. He was also hobbled by a bad ankle for some of that time. Yet he still was able to put up 54/817/8 respectively. With Charles Rogers back, Mike Williams and Marcus Pollard added to the mix, Detroit should have plenty of weapons this year - so it will be hard for defenses to key on just Williams. With a sub-par defense (and many others in the NFC North) Detroit could get into a lot of shootouts which would also bode well for Williams.

Negatives - William’s success depends greatly on QB Joey Harrington. Harrington will need to be on his game early in the season for Williams to do likewise. Williams also is still only in his second NFL season and could still be considered “green” by the three year WR theory. Detroit has seemed to have had its primary RB hurt the last few seasons to some extent so a healthy Kevin Jones could possibly see more touches and cut back on the Detroit passing game although probably not much.

Draft Strategy - The logical choice for a FBG here would be to add my second RB. But at this point, all but (4) teams had at least two RBs already and all of the teams between me and my next pick already possessed at least two RBs, but those same teams had (1) WR combined. So a WR run seemed inevitable (at least to my next pick) so I succumbed to the temptation to add that third significant WR and would look to get a RB with my next pick in the 5th round. This gave me the #4, #7, and #14 projected WRs in a 3 WR league.

Pick 5.4: RB Thomas Jones - CHI

Positives - Jones has talent and finally realized some potential year before last toward the end of the season with Tampa Bay and last year with Chicago before Grossman went down. His value is currently low because of the specter of Cedric Benson. But he has been declared the starter by Lovie Smith since Cedric Benson still has not signed with the Bears and no deal is in place. If you look at Onterrio Smith’s first year in the NFL, one of the critiques of him was that he could not pick up on the pass blocking schemes. I find it hard to believe that Benson (even if he could replace Jones as the starting RB) could similarly learn these subtle nuances while not in camp; essentially handing the starting job to Jones. If Jones starts, then his value would increase by from his current projected #24 ranking into an even higher ranking.

Negatives - Though I do not feel Cedric Benson is as big a threat as some think, he is still a threat, and some think Benson is better suited for the Bear’s offense. And grabbing Jones with my #5 pick (although the best RB on the board at this point – and I desperately needed another RB) when his ADP is 8.11 is a little hard to swallow. Jones production did go down when Grossman went down, and even if Jones won the starting job, there is still Benson looking over his shoulder waiting to come into the game; especially if the Bear’s season turns “south” and they are eliminated from the playoffs early in the season. I would think Benson would get the reps in this scenario.

Draft Strategy - Well, my strategy sort of worked. There was a mini-run on WRs. Two RBs did actually leave the board between my 4th and 5th pick, but none ranked higher than Thomas Jones. So I grabbed that second RB. I felt fortunate to get a RB that was as productive as Jones was last year and a RB that was possibly ranked lower than he should be (and will be in August IMHO) once the dust settles and everyone realizes that Cedric Benson has yet to play a down in the NFL.

Pick 6.9: RB Larry Johnson - KC

Positives - Larry Johnson would be a top ten RB were it not for the fact that he plays behind who many consider THE top RB. He put up “Priest-like” numbers ( 5 TDs) in his last three starts at the end of the season running behind an excellent KC offensive line. He is THE most valuable back-up and possibly could see some goal line carries. Priest has been dinged up at some point in the season the last three years. If that happens again (and Priest is almost 32), Johnson’s value would sore.

Negatives - Simply put – he is a back-up! And you do not typically want to make this type of move this early on in the draft. In a worse case scenario, Johnson and all his talent fester on the sidelines. And I am not a big proponent of rooting for someone to get hurt, and this exactly where I might find myself - reveling in someone else’s misfortune if it comes to past. It’s much more fun to root FOR players than AGAINST them. This will either be the dumbest pick I could make or the savviest. But regardless, it is an early gamble. Its guys like this in these situations that could make you scratch your head at the end of the season wondering why you ever picked him for your #6 overall.

Draft Strategy - Here was my first deviation from apparent value, but with strategy still behind my thinking in this pick. Jake Plummer was the apparent value pick yet his ADP was 7.09. So I took a chance that Plummer would still be there at the turn. I decided to grab another RB (still being pretty deficient at that position). Since Larry Johnson’s ADP was 6.09 and Priest’s owner was selecting in two more picks, I decided to steal Priest’s “backup”. This was a gamble, but one that could pay off if Priest goes down. My deficiency at RB would turn into a decided strength if this happened and it would make the owner of Priest very vulnerable. In drafting “backup RBs”, it’s important to look for RBs who are good runners, RBs who play behind injury prone starters, or RBs who have great offensive lines. Larry Johnson fits all three categories. I would follow this same strategy with RBs the remainder of the draft.

Pick 7.4: QB Jake Plummer - DEN

Positives - Plummer had one of his best seasons last year with over 4,000 yards passing and 28 TDs. These are top ten QB numbers. He also ran for 200 yards. He tends to be drafted below his value because the things most people remember are Jake’s screw ups. But he is in a great offensive system with offensive weapons in place for him to succeed. Even John Elway was quoted as saying that Jake was “in his prime” and “walking into the best situation he’s ever had” after being in the Denver offense for two years now. Plummer could possibly even have upside this year – especially if the INTs are reduced which you would think Shanahan would want to work on.

Negatives - Sometimes you just wonder what Jake is thinking. Without notice, Plummer can sometimes make what can be the most “boneheaded” play. He also tends to rack up an excessive amount of INTs (20 last year). He sometimes can be his own worst enemy.

Draft Strategy - Plummer was still there when it got to this pick so I was wise not to take him earlier. There was a considerable drop off at QB coming after Plummer, Brooks, and Green left the board and since I did not have a stud QB I wanted to get one of the top ten before they were gone and couple him with my second QB just outside the top ten. Also, this was where the value was at that time so I went ahead and decided to go the QB route with this pick.

Pick 8.9: WR Lee Evans - BUF

Positives - Evans had a remarkable rookie season catching 48 passes for 842 and 9 TDs. He is a deep threat who cannot be double covered with Eric Moulds opposite him at the other WR spot. He also posted rush stats of 5/85 which makes it clear that the Bills like to get the ball in Evan’s hands. Even if his production goes down a little, he is still a great pickup as a #3 WR in a 3 WR league. And although he will have to get used to a new QB, the Bills DEF is good enough to give the Bill’s OFF plenty of touches.

Negatives - : I see two negatives for Evans. One, he is almost certain to draw more attention this year because of his first year success, and two, the introduction of a new QB in Buffalo could hurt his production. It will take some time for new QB Losman to get acclimated. The longer it takes for this to happen, the longer the production of the Bill’s WRs will suffer.

Draft Strategy - I was prepared to go ahead and take my second QB with this pick and be pretty much done with the QB position, but value raised its head when Evans was still available. Evans glaringly stood out on a list where he was the #25 ranked WR and WRs ranked #26 - #36 were already taken. I went with Evans (ADP 8.03) and decided to wait and grab the best QB still available with my next pick just around the corner. This gave me another top notch WR, strengthened my ability to field a good core of WRs even during the BYE (week 8) for Harrison and Wayne, and gave me (4) of the top 25 ranked WRs. Again, don’t forget the 1pt. per reception for WRs.

Pick 9.4: QB Carson Palmer - CIN

Positives - Palmer finished strong toward the end of the season. He actually posted (2) - 3TD games and (1) - 4TD game last season. He performed well against some good DEFs last season and has a favorable schedule this year having (6) easy games against sub-par pass DEFs. He actually shed some weight in the off-season making him quicker and more mobile. He supposedly worked hard with his WRs in the off-season as well. With a good running game (Rudi Johnson) and an excellent core of WRs (including C. Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) Palmer has the potential to put up top ten numbers this year.

Negatives - He is still a young QB learning what life is like in the NFL. Also, with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore both in Cincinnati’s division, Palmer will have to face each of these teams very good DEFs twice.

Draft Strategy - After grabbing Plummer in the 6th round, I thought it might be advantageous to pick another QB soon and hope that having two projected top 11 QBs would equate to a top five “combined” performance for the entire Survivor season. And, in fact, Palmer was the value pick at this stage in the draft. Plummer’s and Palmer’s SOS also seemed to fit together fairly well giving them a “combined” projected of (8) EASY weeks against weak pass DEFs.

Pick 10.9: TD Buffalo Bills - BUF

Positives - Buffalo’s D/ST was one of the best last year from a fantasy standpoint. Here were the stats: 2nd in overall DEF, 2nd in INTs, 5th in fumble recoveries, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Add Terrance McGee running back (3) kickoff returns for TDs and the DEF scoring (4) TDs of their own and you can see why they produced so well. The Bill’s DEF seems to want to improve as they do not appear satisfied with being #2 according to linebacker Jeff Posey.

Negatives - The Bills DEF will have to replace cover corner Antoine Winfield and DT Pat Williams. They also have a more difficult SOS.

Draft Strategy - My main need at this point was at TE. But there was a big drop off in point projection from the 3rd ranked DEF to the 4th ranked DEF so I decided to go ahead and pick up a top notch D/ST with this pick.

Pick 11.4: TE Jeb Putzier - DEN

Positives - Putzier put up 36/572/2 last season. That’s not stellar, but was career highs for Putzier and did put him in the top 12 TEs. The Broncos seemed to really value Putzier by matching the Jet’s offer in the off-season in order to retain him. The Broncos passing attack is a good one ranking in the top ten in both passing yards and passing TDs. Putzier has nothing but upside as far as TDs go having ONLY 2 last season. He finished 12th in receptions for TEs and, for what it’s worth, the Denver GM has stated that Putzier could get more balls thrown his way this season and, as such, “is going to catch a lot of balls” this year.

Negatives - Putzier did not receive a lot of red zone targets last season and you’d like to see a lot more TD production. The acquisition of Stephen Alexander (who actually caught more passes than Putzier while playing at Detroit last year) could potentially cut into Putzier’s production if it gets into a TEBC situation in Denver.

Draft Strategy - Starting TEs seemed to be flying off the board more quickly in this draft than is typical of other more standard drafts – probably because of the 1 pt. per reception. As such, the value pick at this point was Putzier. He was the best TE left on the board and I felt that I had better go ahead and take him now with his touted “sleeper” potential knowing that I needed two more TEs to utilize a TEBC strategy in light of the fact that I did not have one of the TE studs.

Pick 12.9: RB Mike Anderson - DEN

Positives - Although it is probable, there is no guarantee that Tatum Bell will be the starter. While Bell is the most talented of the Denver RBs, he has had some problems with “fumblitis”. Enter Mike Anderson. Anderson has proven in the past that he can handle the work load having had a stellar 2000 season with 297/1487/15 which most have forgotten about. He has been proclaimed (for now) the #1 RB entering training camp. Bell has shown to be prone to injury as well as Quentin Griffin, and with Clarett being somewhat undersized, Anderson is probably the most durable Denver RB at this point. Anderson could see goal line carries as well being the bigger RB.

Negatives - There is potential for Anderson not to be the starter and also the potential for a RBBC situation in Denver. Recent Acquisition Ron Dayne could end up getting some goal line carries as well. Bell and Griffin could get dinged up enough to still be able to contribute, but not be completely sidelined. And the most dangerous scenario of all – Bell stays healthy, stops fumbling, and becomes a fantasy stud.

Draft Strategy - Looking again to “shore up” the RB position and at this point there are only “backups” left so I would use the same strategy as I looked for a backup who was an established RB in his own right, had a good offensive line, and was backup to an injury prone starter. Anderson was one of the best backs left on the board at this point, and had the added advantage of being in a situation similar to that of Larry Johnson who met all three of my criteria. If Anderson does get to start at any point in the season, then the additional production is “gravy” since I am getting him at “backup” RB value. Now I would have two vulture backup RBs in the fold who would be waiting in the wings to capitalize if the #1RB went down.

Pick 13.4: WR Justin Gage - CHI

Positives - With Rex Grossman back at QB and the acquisition of WR Muhsin Muhammad, whoever ends up as the Bears #2 WR could see some production. Gage has been impressive during the off-season. He is tall, which gives him an advantage over defenders, and he is also fast. He had pretty good rapport with Grossman last year before Grossman’s season ending injury. Add the fact that the Bears DEF should be improved means the Bears OFF should see more touches.

Negatives - Gage’s numbers were not that impressive last year catching less than (20) passes. Not only that, but he could potentially lose the #2 WR spot to Bernard Berrian. Though Gage has made a good impression during the off-season, Berrian has made a good impression as well, so it is not clear as to who will get the #2 WR spot. If Gage is demoted to the #3 WR then, obviously, his production would be hurt.

Draft Strategy - Simply looking for more skill position players and finding the value with this pick at the WR position. Gage appeared to be the best compliment to my lineup left on the board.

Pick 14.9: WR Reggie Williams - JAX

Positives - Reggie Williams was a high draft pick by the Jag’s and has a lot of talent. He actually appears to have increased his speed and strength during the off-season. He is still considered the #2 WR for the Jaguars and with the Jacksonville running game having some question marks, QB Byron Leftwich may be throwing more often. You would think that opposing DEFs primary focus would be on stopping Jimmy Smith, so if Williams can perform he should get adequate looks. Lastly, Jacksonville has a favorable SOS against pass DEFs.

Negatives - The primary “knock” on William’s is that he tends to have “hands of stone”. It will not take long for Williams to be replaced by Troy Edwards or Ernest Wilford if his consistency catching the football does not improve. There is also rookie Matt Jones in the background.

Draft Strategy - Again looking for value in players left on the board. I still needed some complimentary TEs, but at this point the value still seemed to lie with the WRs. Williams is a touted “sleeper” pick and was a better compliment to my line-up than Darius Watts who shared a BYE week with WR Lee Evans whom I had already taken.

Pick 15.4: TE Ben Troupe - TEN

Positives - Troupe is probably the more athletic of the Titan’s TEs. The Titans also now have Norm Chow as the offensive coordinator (who will pass the ball) and you would think this would bode well for the Titan’s passing game. McNair no longer has Derrick Mason to throw to and the rest of the Titan WRs are young. That means the TE position could see a lot more action this season. Tennessee will probably find themselves passing more as well since there DEF has been depleted and thus will probably require the Titans to play from behind most of the season.

Negatives - Troupe is still recovering from a foot injury which does raise questions as to when he will be ready for action. He is targeting his return at mid to late training camp. He also could find himself splitting time with the Titan’s other TE Erron Kinney.

Draft Strategy - Looking to begin building a “platoon” at the TE position. Troupe was another touted “sleeper” pick and one of the best TEs left on the board at this late stage in the draft.

Pick 16.9: TD Cincinnati Bengals - CIN

Positives - The Bengals were statistically in the top ten in DEF last year with 20 INTs, 37 sacks, and 16 FRs. The addition of rookies David Pollack and Odell Thurman at LB will help the Bengals DEF this season. And with Marvin Lewis being a defensive minded coach, the addition of this young talent could give this team a boost defensively. This group is obviously not of the caliber of a Ravens or Steelers DEF, but could be a good backup DEF and still finish top ten again.

Negatives - Cincinnati was pretty bad against the rush last year giving up an average of almost 130 yards/game which ranked 26 out of 32 NFL teams. It was their above average rate of producing turnovers that produced their fantasy points (ranking 6th in turnover ratio in the AFC). Their overall schedule is a little more difficult this year as well.

Draft Strategy - I was looking to complete my platoon at the TE position. The #13 projected TE (Jerramy Stevens) was still on the board while the #15-#20 ranked TEs were already gone, but Stevens ADP sat at 18.12 and most teams already had (2) TEs. On the other hand, the Bengals D/ST projected #8 was also still on the board while the #10-#12 D/STs were already gone. So it seemed like getting a backup D/ST was the best option. I already had the Bill’s D/ST and the Bengals DEF looked like a good compliment SOS-wise (especially early in the season) as they combined with the Bengals to have (9) favorable matchups against opposing OFFs.

Pick 17.4: TE Jerramy Stevens - SEA

Positives - Jerramy Stevens put up career numbers last season with 31/349/3. With the departure of Koren Robinson, Stevens could see more passes thrown his way as Matt Hasselbeck looks for other receivers. Hopefully, with the signing of Shawn Alexander, the Seahawk’s OFF can get back to some type of normality. His competition, TE Itula Mili, appears to have come into camp over weight so Stevens looks poised to have a lock on the starting TE position.

Negatives - Stevens could be considered an underachiever. His production was inconsistent last year and he only finished 19th among fantasy TEs.

Draft Strategy - Not only was Stevens still around (again, projected as the #13 TE), but now the projected #14-#20 TEs had left the board. So I was able to complete my platoon of TEs with this pick and have a respectable TE combo of the #10, #13 and #16 projected TEs. These (3) TEs combined created a strong SOS with (11) projected favorable matchups against DEFs.

Pick 18.9: QB Trent Dilfer - CLE

Positives - This guy has a Super Bowl ring and is really an underappreciated QB. He has no competition for the starting job and the Browns might surprise offensively this year (because expectations are so low). A healthy Lee Suggs should take some of the pressure off the pass rush so if Dilfer has time to throw he might be able to put up some decent numbers. He also has a capable group (if not excellent) of WRs in Northcutt, Davis, Bryant, and the rookie Edwards. Hopefully Dilfer will have a chance to cover for Palmer or Plummer on weeks where they have poor performances.

Negatives - It’s still the Browns so it’s hard to get real excited about Dilfer’s prospects here. The loss of Kellen Winslow, Jr. will obviously hurt his production. Dilfer has always had a poor TD to INT ratio.

Draft Strategy - My final “platooning” move at the QB position as I take the only starting QB left on the board, but still projected to have better stats this season than Kurt Warner and Gus Frerotte who had already been taken. This was pretty much insurance against Palmer or Plummer going down early in the season as both have late BYE weeks.

Pick 19.4: RB Tony Fisher - GB

Positives - I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but RBs get 1 pt. per reception. Fisher actually caught almost as many passes as Ahman Green last season (A. Green: 40 ; Fisher: 38) and actually had more receiving yards. Fisher was actually 15th in receptions among all RBs. He even threw for a TD. As a backup #2, Najeh Davenport out ran #3 Fisher 359 yards to Fisher’s 224 yards, but Fisher far surpassed Davenport in receiving yards 277 to 33 and also had 2 receiving TDs. So Fisher could be considered the #2 RB for Green Bay.

Negatives - Fisher is still considered the #3 RB currently behind Green and Davenport and as such (in theory) could see less playing time than both. But that’s the only negative I can see this late in the draft.

Draft Strategy - I feel like this was one of two late round gems I found. Fisher was the best projected RB left on the board. In fact, he was the projected #50 RB. That’s a pretty high rating this late in a Survivor League draft. To add a little perspective to this, the #49 projected RB was Mike Anderson with Denver who I took in the 12th round. Najeh Davenport, his cohort at Green Bay, was the #52 projected RB and he went in the 12th round as well. I would say that Fisher fits one and a half of the three criteria I mentioned earlier. He definitely plays behind a starting RB who is injury prone (although A. Green has held up pretty well the last few years). Fisher is no Larry Johnson, but he is good. I am not that confident in Green Bay’s offensive line which is why I believe Green’s projections are lower this year. But if Green gets hurt, I think it would be Fisher, and not Davenport, that would get the most playing time since Fisher is much more versatile. This may have been my second best value pick!

Pick 20.9: PK John Kasay - CAR

Positives - Carolina’s DEF should give Carolina’s OFF plenty of chances. Kasay also has the ability to kick the 50 plus yard FG (of which he had 3 last year). Kasay is pretty accurate only missing 3 FGs (2 of these attempts over 50 yards; the other attempt over 40 yards).

Negatives - Kasay, by far, kicked more extra points than FGs last year. He was only 24th in fantasy points among Ks.

Draft Strategy - Not much strategy here other than waiting late on a kicker (maybe a little too late – at least for the first one). Kasay was the best K left on the board so I grabbed him.

Pick 21.4: RB Moe Williams - MIN

Positives - OK, what am I missing here? Moe Williams is the projected #57 RB with an ADP (19.03). Yet, Michael Bennett is the projected #27 RB with an ADP (4.09) and Mewelde Moore is the projected #42 RB with an ADP (9.10). Do last year’s stats justify this? Bennett finished with 276 rush (1 TD) and had receiving stats of 21/201/1. Moore finished with 379 rush (0TD) and had receiving stats of 27/238/0. M. Williams finished with 161 rush (3TD) and had receiving stats of 21/233/1. These stats in this Survivor League would equate to Bennett = 80.7, Moore = 88.7, and Williams = 84.4. So what’s different? Onterrio Smith is gone – that’s about it unless you count on Bennett staying healthy. Regardless, Moe Williams is an experienced back who gets a lot of goal line touches and third down looks. Bennett is injury prone, Minnesota has a decent OFF line, and Moe is a sturdy RB. Between Williams and Moore - Williams (I feel) would be the more dependable back.

Negatives - The only negative I see here is that the best situation Williams owners could expect would still be a RBBC (although Moe still gets his projected stats in this situation) unless both Bennett and Moore got hurt.

Draft Strategy - The positive remarks above pretty much say it all. William’s ADP is (19.03) so I actually got him cheap at (21.04) – and that for an RB that could potentially see as much time as Bennett and Moore when all is said and done, or could see considerably more playing time if the injury bug hits Bennett as it seems to have every year.

Pick 22.9: PK Billy Cundiff - DAL

Positives - Dallas should be improved on OFF this year which should help Cundiff’s totals. Cundiff has pretty good range as he kicked (9) 40 plus yard FGs last year. Cundiff’s misses were all over 40 yards as well.

Negatives - Cundiff, by far, kicked more extra points than FGs last year similar to Kasay. He was only 20th in fantasy points among Ks.

Draft Strategy - Best K left and I needed a backup.