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Survivor I - Mikey T Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - This will be my easiest pick in the draft. Tomlinson is the consensus number 1 pick among most fantasy football communities. He is as adept at catching passes (232 receptions over the last 3 years) as he is at scoring touchdowns (50 total touchdowns over the last 3 years). He only failed to score in 1 game last year, which could be considered a down year as he played through a sore groin for much of the season. I do believe that Priest Holmes has the potential to outscore Tomlinson this year, but the issues regarding Holmes health and age (32 this season) coupled with the need to use a 4th round pick to draft Larry Johnson as a handcuff, make this pick as easy as it gets. Negatives - This is Tomlinson’s 5th year in the league. Over his short career he has carried the ball 1,363 times which is 5th most among active RBs during the last 4 years. This heavy usage, while great from a fantasy football perspective, may eventually take a toll on Tomlinson’s health. Tomlinson has also failed to finish as the top RB during his career finishing 3rd each of the past 3 years. Also, as the Chargers passing game improves, there may be less need to rely so heavily on the running game. Draft Strategy - My plan, very simply, was to take the best player available at the position with the fewest quality starters available later in the draft. The scores from the 2 highest scoring RBs will be tallied each week with the possibility of a 3rd in the flex spot. Taking a RB with the first pick in the draft is a must as my next pick is at 24 and the RB pickings should be slim at that point but elite players from other positions should still available to choose from.
Positives - I was surprised to find Green still available at this point, especially in a scoring system that awards 1 point per reception. Green is able to rack up large chunks of yardage by being utilized in both the running and passing games. Over the last 4 years, Green has finished in the top 3 at his position twice. I think Green Bay will make every effort to emphasize the run once again this year. Although I expect Najeh Davenport to receive a small share of the rushing load, I expect Green to improve on the worse than expected performance he posted last year which was primarily a result of failing to reach 20 carries in 8 games. Green is also in the last year of his contract and should be motivated to attempt to earn one more payday. Negatives - Green Bay lost 2 starting offensive lineman and signed lesser quality replacements. Green Bay also did not effectively address some defensive weaknesses which could cause them to fall behind often and negatively impact the running game as they would need to pass more to catch up. Green is also 28 and could be nearing the beginning of the end. Davenport, who has been impressive in limited opportunities, is waiting in the wings to take over should Green struggle. Off the field, there is an unresolved domestic violence case pending which could prompt a response from the league, should Green be found guilty. Draft Strategy - I was targeting a RB2 at this spot and was fortunate to find Green available. Green underperformed last year compared to previous years while Green Bay featured the passing game more than in recent seasons. Even with all the struggles in Green Bay last year, Green still finished ranked 13th and I was able to take him as the 17th RB off the board. I considered Rudi Johnson at this point, but Johnson is not heavily involved in the passing game and had the second most carries in the league last year which may limit his upside. Even if Green only duplicates last year’s performance, he is a good value pick at this point. If Green can modestly improve on last years numbers, he’s a potential top ten RB and a steal as the last pick of the second round. With Tomlinson and Green in tow, I like my team’s prospects so far.
Positives - After 8 seasons in the league, Gonzalez is simply the best tight end of this era. He owns 5 of the top 11 seasons for receptions by a TE over the last 15 years. He caught 102 passes last year and is the primary receiving threat for the Chiefs high powered offense which shows no signs of slowing down. He’s caught at least 63 passes and 6 touchdowns for the past 6 years with his best receiving and yardage totals coming last year. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Gonzo yet and I look forward to another highly productive and consistent season. Negatives - Gonzalez is 29 years old and has had issues with a foot over the last couple of years that haven’t impacted his performance and appear to be resolved. With more teams adapting offensive philosophies which focus on getting the ball to the TE, Gonzalez is no longer the only TE who is the primary receiving option on his team reducing his advantage over other TEs in the league. Draft Strategy - I wanted one of the top 5 receivers to fall to me at this spot. I felt Joe Horn was a reach here and a 3rd RB would not add as much value to my team as an elite TE who should score 100 points more than half the starting TEs in this league. Although Antonio Gates may have another great season, he’s only been an elite TE for one year. I’ll take my chances on a TE who’s been playing at an elite level for 6 years. I wasn’t comfortable taking a TE this high, but thought he represented the best value at this draft position. If trades were allowed, I would have tried to trade down a few spots.
Positives - Donald Driver has been a top 10 receiver in the NFL 2 out of the past 3 years. Last season, Javon Walker only caught 4 more passes and 3 more touchdowns than Driver, numbers which could easily be reversed this season with Favre being unhappy with Walker’s holdout threats. Walker is definitely the bigger playmaker and the more athletic of the two, but Driver and Favre have more chemistry and more of a history together. With a questionable defense, Green Bay could be forced to score more points this year providing potential for a career season from Driver. Negatives - Driver, who has just turned 30, has struggled with injuries in the past and often takes big hits making the difficult catch. Walker could improve his game even further into the elite category forcing Favre to throw him the ball even more. Ferguson could finally emerge as a consistent threat giving Favre a third option which could reduce Driver’s opportunities. Draft Strategy - Without a WR on my roster at this point I expected to take the best available receiver. The downside of having the first or last pick in a serpentine draft is that there are 22 picks between draft choices. This makes it difficult to predict runs and forces you to take players higher than their average draft positions if you think their value warrants it and they won’t be available for your next pick. In a normal draft, I would have tried to trade down a few spots, but since picks couldn’t be traded, I took Donald Driver - the WR I thought would have the best season of those available. I again took a player a few spots higher than he would normally be taken because I didn’t think there would be any way Driver would be available for my selection at the end of the 6th round. I’m actually very happy with this pick as I think Driver will come close to providing the production of a number 1 WR at the cost of a number 2.
Positives - The second overall pick in the NFL draft, Brown possesses a great combination of size (HT: 6-1, WT: 223), speed (4.43 forty-time), strength, and pass catching ability. The Dolphins have a new coach and a new philosophy which should benefit the running game. The Dolphins have the potential to improve quickly with decent QB play and the multifaceted Brown as the centerpiece of the offense. With Ricky Williams suspended for the first 4 games of the season, Brown will have the opportunity to seize the starting job and never look back. The Dolphins have too much invested in Brown not to allow him to develop on the field. Negatives - Brown never received a full rushing load at Auburn as he shared the job with Carnell Williams so it’s unknown whether his body will hold up over the course of a 16 game NFL season. Ricky Williams has performed at a pro bowl level in the past and could quickly step in should Brown struggle or wear down. There’s always additional risk taking a rookie as there is no certainty that they will be able to perform against the high level of competition they will face each week. Draft Strategy - I was hoping to be able to draft a 3rd RB here in the fifth round to provide depth and possibly fill the flex position in the starting requirements. I was surprised to find Brown still available here 11 spots lower than his average draft position of 38. At worse, he’ll be a capable 3rd RB who should help out on bye weeks and have a few big games. If he lives up to his billing, he has top 15 potential and would give me a strong trio at RB along with Tomlinson and Green. This was a great value pick in the fifth round and allowed me to accomplish my plan to draft 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds knowing that the quality at RB would be gone before my next pick.
Positives - Trent Green has finished as a top 5 QB each of the previous 2 years. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards and at least 24 touchdowns each of the last 2 seasons. The KC offense returns intact with the exception of Johnny Morton which some might consider addition through subtraction giving Samie Parker an opportunity to start. Green threw for 12 touchdowns during the teams final 5 games last year, which was more than Peyton Manning. The Chiefs have been one of the NFL’s top offenses over the last several seasons and there’s no reason to expect that to change this year. Negatives - Green will be 35 at the start of the 2005 season. His primary offensive weapons are 32 (Holmes), 32 (Kennison), and 29 (Gonzalez) indicating that the skill level could drop off dramatically if age catches up with one or more of these skill positions. An improved defense could lessen the need to get involved in shootouts and reduce the number of points the Chiefs need to win games. Draft Strategy - As the 8th QB drafted I thought Green represented value. If Larry Fitzgerald wasn’t taken directly before this pick, I likely would have taken the WR and waited to get a QB later. I’m a bit concerned about having both Green and Tony Gonzalez as the risk is increased should the Chiefs offense not perform as expected. I like this pick and expect Green to continue to perform as a top 5 QB this year.
Positives - Branch is in a position to be Tom Brady’s primary receiver and the first option on offense. Branch came up huge in the Patriot’s playoff victories against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia including 15 receptions, 249 yards, and a touchdown. Branch spent most of last year injured, but returned and hit his stride at the end of the season. A case can be made that he was Brady’s most effective and valuable weapon in the playoffs. Only starting his fifth year in the NFL, Branch is capable of a breakout season and finishing in the top 20 at his position. Negatives - Branch was hurt for a good part of last year and has never caught more than 57 passes or 4 touchdowns in a season. The Patriots like to spread the ball around in the passing game and it’s unlikely that Brady will lock onto a single receiver for an entire season. The two playoff performances against the Steelers and Eagles may not be enough to predict that high level of production for an entire season. As an Eagle fan, Branch’s performance in the Super Bowl is burned into my memory and I may be giving him more credit than he deserves. Draft Strategy - Branch may have some off weeks, but in this league’s ‘best ball’ format where the high scores at each position are used rather than a starting lineup, I can enjoy reaping the rewards of his good weeks while not having to worry about his down weeks. I plan on taking 7 or 8 receivers in this draft to make up for my lack of top level quality at this position in the hopes that I’ll have at least 3 WRs each week who will provide good production. I feel Branch has good upside with potential to outperform this draft position. At worse, Branch should have a handful of good games and I’ll need to rely on the depth I hope to draft at this position to make up the difference.
Positives - In his 6th year in the league, Stokley finished last season with career highs in almost every receiving category, finishing 11th at the WR position. He’s working with a future HOF QB playing in his prime after just shattering Dan Marino’s passing touchdown record. Even if his numbers are reduced by 20%, that should be good enough to just finish in the top 25 WRs this season. His upside, should either Harrison or Wayne miss time, is off the charts. Negatives - Stokley was sometimes invisible, scoring or exceeding 100 yards in only 7 games out of 18 played (including 2 playoff games). It was also only the second time in his career he’s played in all 16 regular season games. He’s also likely the fifth option on most passing plays behind Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and James. Stokley was only able to put up these numbers as part of a record setting passing performance by Peyton Manning. For Stokley to repeat this performance, a lot of planets would have to line up correctly. Draft Strategy - Stokley’s upside was too much to pass up here. It’s tough to take a teams 3rd receiver in the 8th round, but I believe Stokley may out score several team’s primary receiver. Again, in a ‘best ball’ format, I don’t need Stokley to be consistent, I just need him to put together 7 or 8 good to great games this season for him to live up to this draft position.
Positives - Shelton was a scoring machine at Louisville, rushing for 20 touchdowns last year. He’s 6-3, 245 lbs and a perfect fit for the Carolina Panther offense. The Panther’s selected him in the second round and should give him every opportunity to see significant playing time early in the season with a chance of winning the starting job before the end of the year. His competition on the team is DeShaun Foster, who hasn’t had more than 113 rushes in a season, Stephen Davis, who may not be healthy at the start of the year, and Nick Goings, who has been returned to fullback. I like the odds of Shelton eventually becoming the primary ball carrier and goal line back with Foster playing a third down, change of pace role. With the success this offense has had running the ball in recent years, that could add up to a great season for Shelton. Negatives - If the versatile Foster has truly overcome his injuries, he could be difficult to displace from the starting job. If Davis can play, even on a limited basis, he’ll likely receive the short yardage and goal line work similar to Jerome Bettis, leaving little opportunity for Shelton to make an impact this season. Goings is also a wildcard, having proven he could handle the job during several starts last year. Shelton will also need to prove he can handle the various blocking assignments which can sometimes take a while for a rookie to master, possibly limiting his opportunities all season. Draft Strategy - I wanted to take one more RB with a chance of starting early in the season. Faulk, Bettis, and Duckett didn’t fit this criterion. I may have reached a bit for Shelton but feel the risk is warranted considering the value of the Carolina starting RB and the less than inspiring competition currently on the roster. With 3 RBs already on board, I don’t need Shelton to necessarily start early in the season. If this pick pans out, Shelton, along with Ronnie Brown, will compete to give me one of the highest scoring flex positions in the league. I know everyone could say that if their picks work out as expected; I just happen to like mine so far.
Positives - Galloway has great speed and game breaking ability. He finished in the top 15 for 4 consecutive years in Seattle before an injury marred season and a subsequent trade to Dallas. Galloway is more of a big play receiver capable of taking it to the house on any given down. Galloway developed a nice chemistry with Brian Griese late in the season scoring 5 touchdowns in his final 5 games. He also worked well with Michael Clayton late in the season as the receiving load was fairly balanced between the two. Negatives - Galloway has had a tough time of it recently with his last finish in the top 10 coming in 1998. Since then, he hasn’t finished any higher than 26th overall. Part of his downturn could be attributed to his 4 years in Dallas with constant struggles and turnover at the QB position. He’s missed significant time in his career due to injuries including the first half of last season. He’s 33 and could lose his starting job to Ike Hilliard or one of the other receivers on the roster should he get hurt again. Draft Strategy - As with my previous WR picks, I’m not looking for week to week consistency, just the potential for 6 or 7 good games during the course of the season which I believe Galloway is capable of as long as his health holds out. I believe there is some upside here as well, as Michael Clayton may see more double teams this year and, with the emergence of Carnell Williams, Galloway should see primarily single coverages allowing him many opportunities to make big plays for the Bucs. I don’t think Galloway was a great value here, but I definitely think he deserved to be selected at this point.
Positives - Pittsburgh finished first in the NFL in total defense last year. Their one weakness was at defensive back, but their 1st round draft choice, Bryant McFadden, as well as the continued improvement of young players, should help improve this area. Pittsburgh did not loose any impact player to free agency this year (Kendrell Bell only played in 3 games last year) so there’s no reason to think they can’t repeat last years performance and remain a top defense this season. Negatives - It’s hard to remain a top defense in the NFL. If their weaknesses at DB have not been addressed effectively, they may find themselves mismatched against some of the better passing offenses in the league, many of which are on their schedule this year (New England, San Diego, Cincinnati (twice), Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Minnesota). If the Pittsburgh offense cannot perform at the same high level that it did a year ago, the defense may find itself on the field more in less advantageous field position. Draft Strategy - I wasn’t planning on taking a defense this high, but finding the last of the elite defenses still available at this point provided too much value. I was tempted to take a second QB here, but hoped that one would drop to me with my next pick at the end of the 12th round. At the halfway point, I’m very pleased with my team. I have a top 5 QB, the top TE, a great group of RBs including Tomlinson, and a top defense. I’m not as pleased with my receivers, but knew there would be a penalty for taking Gonzalez. I just hope quantity will make up for quality and that a few of my undervalued selections will outperform their draft positions.
Positives - Over his 3 year career, Davenport has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. He’s had over 70 carries each of the past 2 seasons in a backup roll. He had the opportunity to run the ball 19 times against the Rams last year and responded with 178 yards and a touchdown. He signed a 1 year contract during the off season and should be extremely motivated to earn a bigger payday as an unrestricted free agent next year. If Ahman Green misses time for any reason, Davenport should, at least, be a capable backup with a chance to be a star. Negatives - Davenport has struggled with minor injuries over his brief career and some might question whether he can stay healthy as a starting RB over an entire season. Ahman Green has been a fantasy force over the last few seasons and is in the prime of his career. Should Green miss time, there’s no guarantee that Tony Fisher wouldn’t be named the starter or see increased playing time. Draft Strategy - Due to the nature of this league (no free agent pickups or trades) I didn’t want to leave my roster in a position where a single injury to a key player could ruin my season. My philosophy in this type of league is to make an attempt to back up my top RBs if the primary backup is secure in his position and there is reason to think he could succeed as a starter. In this case I felt that Davenport is the likely backup to Green and could perform at a high level if needed. This pick will protect me against an injury to Green and should lock up the starting Green Bay RB for my team. I intended to take a second QB here, but miscalculated, not expecting 7 QBs to be selected since my last pick. Rather than take a QB at the end of a run, I’m hoping to take a decent second QB with my next pair of picks.
Positives - This will be Kevin Curtis’ 3rd year in the NFL placing him into the mythic 3rd year WR category. It was obvious that Mike Martz began incorporating Curtis into his game plan more toward the end of last season. In his final 3 games, including two postseason appearances, Curtis totaled 17 receptions for 335 yards and a touchdown. He had at least one reception for 34 yards or more in each of these games. There have also been rumors regarding Curtis possibly playing some WR2 in the Ram’s offense this year. Should Isaac Bruce (33 this year) miss any time, Curtis could shine. Negatives - Curtis isn’t the only young WR with potential on this team. Shaun McDonald has also shown flashes of great ability and should also have more passes thrown his way. It’s also not outside the realm of possibility that McDonald could outplay Curtis, bumping him to WR4 or at the very least, greatly limit his opportunities. The running game should also be better this year with Steven Jackson starting, decreasing the team’s reliance on the pass (if that’s possible in a Mike Martz designed offense). Curtis has only shown potential up to this point. Draft Strategy - Just like Stokley, Curtis has the ability and potential to perform like a top WR for 5 or 6 weeks this season, possibly more should everything fall into place for the young WR. When Curtis has his productive weeks, he should put up solid WR2 numbers, whereas, a WR like Keyshawn Johnson may be a more consistent performer, guaranteeing me a handful of points on a weekly basis, but rarely, if ever, having the breakout game. Since I don’t need to choose starters each week in this format, I’d rather take a chance on Curtis’ upside realizing that he’ll likely disappear at times as well. I may have reached here a bit, but didn’t think Curtis would be there for my next pick. I may live to regret not selecting Marcus Robinson at this spot.
Positives - Ramsey is still a young QB, only entering his 4th season. He took over midway through last season and is the projected starter this year. Ramsey should be more comfortable in his second year running Joe Gibbs’ offense. He also realizes that this may be his last opportunity to have a legitimate shot to run an NFL offense and should be motivated to have a good season. Ramsey tossed 8 touchdowns against 5 interceptions in the final 6 games of last season showing improvement which will hopefully continue into this year. Ramsey has the potential to make significant improvement similar to Drew Brees last season. Negatives - Ramsey is likely to be on a short leash as there’s pressure for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins to win now. Veteran Mark Brunell is still on the roster and 1st round pick Jason Campbell may be given a chance should the team fallout out of contention later in the season. Ramsey will be throwing to a whole new cast of receivers as Coles and Gardner have been replaced by Santana Moss and David Patten. Not only does Ramsey need to quickly develop chemistry with these new receivers, there are many who think this may be a downgrade in talent as well. Ramsey has yet to perform at the level expected when he was a 1st round pick several years ago, and the current situation he finds himself in may not be one any QB could succeed in. Draft Strategy - Having missed the initial run on backup QBs, I had to grab the best remaining QB here or risk not having a backup at all. If Ramsey can hold onto the starting job, he should post stats good enough to help cover Trent Green’s bye week or cover for Green should he miss a week or two. Should Green miss significant time, I’m in trouble at this position. Looking over the past few rounds, I probably should have selected a higher quality backup QB rather than take a defense in the 11th round knowing that defenses would still be available after the starting QBs dried up. I just felt that the value of the Pittsburgh defense was too great to pass up and got caught on the wrong side of a run at the position.
Positives - Jurevicius is an experienced veteran who has been a competent receiver for Tampa Bay for the last three seasons. He possesses great size (6-5), and good hands, traits currently in short supply in Seattle. Jurevicius will battle Bobby Engram for the starting receiver position opposite Darrell Jackson with the loser likely playing the slot position in the Seahawks 3 WR sets. I think this is a great opportunity for Jurevicius to earn more playing time than he has received in recent seasons. If he can win the starting spot, I believe he will quickly become one of Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite targets and post his best receiving numbers to date. I think Jurevicius has good ability, is a great fit, and has great opportunity to succeed. Negatives - Jurevicius has had nagging injuries throughout his career. He has never been able to crack a starting lineup or catch more than 51 passes in a season. Bobby Engram is currently the favorite to earn the starting gig, forcing Jurevicius into a potential third WR role with competition from Jerome Pathon. There’s also no guarantee that Jurevicius will make the team should he struggle in preseason. There have been rumors regarding Seattle making a trade for a WR which would muddy the waters even more. Draft Strategy - I’m honestly not sure why I made this pick. Maybe because we were already about 6 hours into the draft, maybe because I was targeting Samie Parker, Reggie Williams, Caldwell, and Glenn who were all selected in the 8 picks prior to my selection, or maybe it was simply food deprivation. At the time I felt much better about this pick, but I likely could have selected Jurevicius several rounds later and taken another QB like Eli Manning here.
Positives - Chatman was the primary backup to LaDainian Tomlinson last season and faired quite well gaining 392 yards and scoring 3 touchdowns on just 65 carries averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He possesses good size and speed and has shown talent when given the opportunity. Negatives - Chatman has difficulty keeping his weight in check and didn't display the desired work ethic in the off season leading to his unexpected release just days after this draft occurred. The fact that he's not currently on a team's roster can be considered a pretty significant negative although there are several teams with interest which may potentially offer a greater opportunity for playing time then Chatman would have had backing up Tomlinson in San Diego. Draft Strategy - My strategy was simply to have Tomlinson's primary backup on my roster to provide adequate scoring potential should Tomlinson miss any time. My plan failed as Chatman was cut by the Chargers making Michael Turner the probable backup. Hopefully Chatman finds another opportunity in the NFL. It's been rumored that the Vikings, Ravens and Panthers are the three finalists to sign RB Jesse Chatman. Minnesota and Carolina especially may present a better opportunity than San Diego, although both teams already have crowded backfields as it is. You win some and you loose some.I think I lost this one.
Positives - Engram has been on the Seahawks roster for 4 seasons with 50 or more receptions 2 of those years. He only possesses average size and speed, but has become a clutch receiver and a dependable target for Matt Hasselbeck on 3rd downs. With Koren Robinson permanently out of the picture, Engram has a great opportunity to win a starting role opposite Darrell Jackson. The last time he was a starter (in Chicago), Engram caught 88 passes for 947 yards. I think he has a very good chance to duplicate those totals should he retain the starting job for the entire season. Negatives - Engram is 32 years old and may not be as fast as he once was. Should he be named the starter, he will need to master a new set of routes and be able to get separation running outside patterns rather than finding the open spot in the middle of the field as a slot receiver. There is competition on the roster in the form of Jerome Pathon and Joe Jurevicius and a trade to acquire yet another receiver has been rumored. Draft Strategy - By selecting both Jurevicius and Engram, I should have Seattle’s 2nd and 3rd receivers locked up. I don’t think Pathon has the talent and consistency needed to earn significant playing time. Barring injury, I’m projecting that Engram and Jurevicius should combine for about 900 yards and 8 touchdowns providing the value of a top 30 WR between them. Engram is a good value here, and, paired with Jurevicius, should provide excellent scoring potential in an offense that has generated over 20 touchdown passes for the previous 2 seasons.
Positives - Dallas was a top defense 2 years ago during Bill Parcells first season as Cowboy’s coach. They slid back to an average defense last season (#16 overall). Parcells has taken drastic steps to overhaul their defensive weaknesses during the off season. The Cowboys signed highly regarded free agents Jason Ferguson (DL) and Anthony Henry (DB) providing instant upgrades at their respective positions. Parcells also drafted Marcus Spears (DL) and Demarcus Ware (DE/OLB) adding great size, strength, and speed to the defensive front 7. It’s also been speculated that the additions of these players were intended to allow Dallas to utilize a 3-4 defensive scheme. These personnel additions, along with Parcells’ track record with defenses, should allow Dallas to once again be a top 10 overall defensive team this season. Negatives - It’s impossible to predict how much the rookies will contribute this season. There may also be a learning curve should Parcells decide to use the 3-4 defense exclusively which may last well into the season. There also needs to be a significant improvement in the Dallas offense which will keep the defense off the field and help in winning the field position battle. That’s a lot of improvement expected from a team that finished with only 6 wins last season. Draft Strategy - With the last pick in the 18th round, I selected Dallas believing they should be a solid defense with upside, potentially finishing in the top ten should the new personnel additions come up to speed quickly. The only skill positions left for me to fill are an 8th WR and a backup TE. There are no great values available at either of those positions so I chose to go with the best available defense. Pittsburgh and Dallas should provide my team with above average defensive scoring all season.
Positives - Jeff Wilkins has been the top kicker in the NFL 2 of the past 4 seasons. He is capable of kicking 50+ yard field goals making 4 out of 5 last year. He benefits from the Rams high scoring offense and hasn’t missed an extra point since 1998. Wilkins should receive more opportunities this season resulting from the expected improvement of the Rams offense including Steven Jackson taking over as the starting RB, and the continued growth of the young receivers on the roster. Wilkins has every chance to return to prominence this season as one of the elite kickers in the NFL. Negatives - Wilkins can be one of the most inconsistent kickers in the league. While he finished as the top kicker 2 of the past 4 seasons, the other 2 years he finished 22nd and 24th (last season). The Mike Martz offensive philosophy can often lead to reduced field goal opportunities as Martz would rather attempt a 30 yard touchdown pass with a big lead in the 4th quarter than to run the clock down via the running game and settle for the field goal. Draft Strategy - In the 19th round, as the 8th kicker drafted, I felt that Wilkins was the best choice. He is capable of big games and is part of one of the top offenses in the NFL. The Rams also play in a dome taking away any negative weather effects on the kicking game. I would prefer not to take a kicker at all, but I’d rather take one with upside here than select from the scraps at the end of the draft.
Positives - Like my previous pick at kicker, Carney kicks in a dome eliminating any negative weather effects on the kicking game. Carney has never finished any worse in scoring than 15th overall over the last 4 years averaging 25 field goals and 36 extra points each season during that span. He is capable of kicking 50+ yard field goals, completing 2 out of 3 attempts last season. The Saints are a solid offensive team and should provide ample scoring opportunities for Carney. Negatives - Carney is 41 years old and has not been consistently healthy over his career. The Saints are streaky offensively often disappearing for weeks at a time. Draft Strategy - I needed a 2nd kicker and liked Carney’s consistency over the past few seasons. I could have waited until the last pick in the draft but liked the idea of having 2 dome kickers on offenses capable of big games so pulled the trigger here.
Positives - Watson was a 1st round pick of the Patriots last year. He possesses great size (6-3, 253lbs) and speed (4.4 40 time) and should be an effective big play threat from anywhere on the field. He should be given the chance to earn significant playing time over the course of the season and has the raw ability to be a star at the position. Daniel Graham was used often as a blocker and should resume that role this season opening the door for Watson to become the primary receiving threat at TE on the team. Negatives - Watson was hurt the first week of the season last year and needs to prove he is fully recovered. Graham has played well when given the opportunity to catch passes from Tom Brady and any mistakes by the inexperienced Watson will not be tolerated by the N.E. coaching staff. There are only so many passes to go around and Brady is likely to look to the veterans on the team in clutch situations. There is a small window of opportunity that could close on Watson quickly making him an afterthought for much of the season. Draft Strategy - This is a big time deep sleeper pick this year. Watson could be a total bust or could be this years breakout TE. Because I already have Tony Gonzalez I decided to take a chance on Watson as any other TE selected here would likely never outscore Gonzalez during the course of the season anyway. If Watson performs up to his hype and potential, he should provide several big weeks. On the other hand, should Gonzalez miss time this year, I may regret not taking a backup who is at least assured of getting consistent playing time. I would have selected Doug Jolley here if he were not chosen just prior to my pick. With the quality of the other teams in this league, the upside of this pick was worth the risk.
Positives - As the last pick in the draft I select David Terrell. Terrell is attempting to resurrect his career in N.E. He has all to tools to succeed and possesses great size (6-3, 210 lbs). He’s caught over 40 passes each of the last 2 seasons on a losing Bears team and is now being reunited with his former Michigan teammate who helped make him a 1st round pick, Tom Brady. Terrell’s lack of previous success could be attributed in part to the less than stellar quarterbacking in Chicago during his short time in the NFL. The Patriots will provide excellent coaching and are known for making the best use of a player’s talents. There is also opportunity in N.E. as current starter David Givens is a free agent next year and David Patton left via free agency. Injuries have also reduced the competition for playing time in training camp making Terrell the early favorite to win the third WR spot on the team. Negatives - Terrell is a former high 1st round pick of the Bears who never came close to living up to his potential. There is some strong competition for a roster spot including veterans (Troy Brown and Tim Dwight) and prospects (Bethel Johnson). The opportunities may be scarce if Terrell and Brady cannot reestablish their previous chemistry quickly. This is a one time shot for Terrell at this point in his career. If he doesn’t show the ability, work ethic, and dedication (which weren’t evident in Chicago), he won’t last long on this team. Draft Strategy - As the final pick in this draft, I was looking to strengthen what I consider my weakest position, receiver. David Terrell has what you look for in a fantasy prospect: talent, opportunity, and an offense that fits the player’s skill set. All of these currently exist in N.E. for Terrell. I like the value of this choice with the 264th pick of the draft. Overall, I like my team, but there are at least several others I like a bit more. I think I can effectively compete at every position except receiver which was weakened by selecting Gonzalez over Joe Horn. I’m hoping that in this case quantity (8 receivers selected) makes up for quality (top 3 receivers are Driver, Branch, and Stokley). If my picks at WR remain healthy and are productive, I think I’ll be competitive. Everyone has a chance to win and will succeed or fail based on injuries, picks that outperform their draft position, and some luck. Some teams are definitely at more risk than others but in this league, there is no difference between 2nd and 12th place so some risk is warranted. We all chose our bullets, now we’ll find out how well we aimed over the next several months. Good luck to all.
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