Survivor I - Muhsin Muhammad Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD	FPT	RANK
2002	3	40	0	63	823	3	104.3	45
2003	2	-2	0	54	837	3	101.5	33
2004	3	15	0	93	1405	16	238.0	1

Positives - Muhsin Muhammad was the top fantasy WR last season, setting career highs for yards (1405) and touchdown catches (16). He enters the 2005 season as the unquestioned #1 WR for the Chicago Bears. Muhsin has 3 seasons with over 90 catches, including over 100 in 2000. With the recent success of the receivers in Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay, the NFC North seems like a division where a WR could succeed. His size and athleticism should make him the primary target for Rex Grossman in the red zone.

Negatives - The Bears WRs combined for 3 touchdown receptions last season. The offense sputtered and there was no consistency. Muhsin had a career year last season, and the previous two seasons he only had 3 TDs each year. The question is how much will Muhsin regress to the mean. The lack of a solid # 2 WR will lead to double teams all season long for Muhsin.

Draft Strategy - With the RB position set, strong starters at QB and TE, we can begin to address the WR position. I have slacked on WR on purpose, but only because of the Survivor, best ball format. It is my belief that the WR position is the most inconsistent. A player who gets 15 targets one week may get 4 targets the next. It is not like a starting RB who will get 20 carries. There are normally not multiple TEs to spread the wealth around. But each NFL team will start at least two WRs; many will run 3 WR formations. If a team runs the ball well, the WRs may never get involved. Weather plays a bigger factor. I decided before the draft that I would not select a WR early and load up at RB. I would rather have 7-9 mediocre WRs that have the ability to put up occasional big games as compared to a standard 5-6 WRs that are drafted as WR 1, WR 2, and WR 3. Chad Johnson scored TDs in less than half the games he played. At WR #30, Muhsin is a valuable player for my squad as he will see plenty of targets and could have some monster weeks. He had too much talent for me too pass up the opportunity at this point.