Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
|
|
Login / Signup |
|
| Intro • Complete Draft • Rosters • Round: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22 | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Survivor I - Nugget Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - Clinton Portis had the worst season of his career last year and still finished as the 11th overall running back. He had 383 touches for over 1500 yards. He will be force fed the ball and has no competition or worries of a RBBC. He is a capable receiver out of the backfield and will be the focal point of the offense. With Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner leaving town, I expect big things out of Clinton, especially early in the season. The last 3 seasons he finished the season as the 4th, 5th, and 11th ranked running back. Consistency and a healthy offensive line should lead to another top 5 finish. Negatives - YPC and TDs dropped dramatically last season compared with the previous two seasons in Denver. A 5.5 ypc dropped to 3.8 as injuries to the offensive line and confusion at QB allowed defenses to stack the box against the run. 31 touchdowns in his 1st 29 games dropped to only a combined 7 scores last season. He is not a huge man, 5’11”, 205 lbs, and some concerns exist over the amount of hits he takes. Draft Strategy - I entered the draft wanting 3 RBs in the 1st 4 rounds. Portis is a safe pick in that he will get his touches. With the best ball scoring, I’m looking for homerun hitters and not worried as much about the strikeouts. If Portis can give me multiple 25+ point games, I’ll be fine with some under 10pt outings as well. He was my highest rated RB at this point.
Positives - Corey Dillon and the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have a knack for winning. Corey produced 1635 rushing yards with an outstanding average of 4.7 ypc. 13 combined touchdowns led to his final fantasy ranking as the 7th best RB. He enters his 9th season knowing what he needs to do to be successful, and in a system that brings the best out of their players. Corey had 9 100- yd games and his worst rushing performance was against a tough Buffalo defense in which he still put up a respectable 79 yards. His average of over 16 FFP/game is a nice cushion for your # 2 RB. Negatives - 30 years of age is not something that can be considered a positive for a RB. Corey is not much of a factor in the passing game, as he recorded only 15 receptions last season. In a PPR league, I’d prefer a back who averages at least 30 catches a season. Kevin Faulk and Cedric Cobbs may see the field a bit more this season and I’d expect to see a 15% decrease in touches this season. Draft Strategy - The only non RB players I would have considered at the juncture in the draft were already taken. Corey is the clear starting RB in New England, and the week 7 bye is one I was not as concerned with.
Positives - J.J. Arrington was the first running back selected in the 2nd round of this years draft and is in an excellent position to contribute immediately. He will fill in for a retired Emmitt Smith and his main competition comes from career backup Marcel Shipp. He rushed for over 2000 yards last season at Cal and every game was a 100yd performance. With Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald keeping opposing defenses honest, there should be a great opportunity for Arrington to put up well over 1000 yards. Arizona’s improved defense should lead to less garbage time for the wide receivers and more touches for JJ. Negatives - He is a rookie, and he will need to learn the blocking schemes quickly. If he can’t be counted on to protect Kurt Warner, he will not see much 3rd down duty. He is a smaller RB, only 5’10”, and has to learn the pace of the NFL game. The quicker he picks up the playbook and reports to camp, the better chances he has for this season. Draft Strategy - Considered McNabb at this point, but I’m not sold on him being an upgrade over the QBs available 3 rounds later. Antonio Gates was another I considered here but passed on. I think he’s a great talent, but I don’t see him repeating his performance of last season. With my plan of 3 RBs in the first 4 picks, Arrington had the most upside/least risk of RBs available.
Positives - He is the incumbent staring running back who has the ability to be a three down back. He catches passes out of the backfield, averaged 5.1 ypc in 2003 and 4.7 ypc in 2002. In 2003, Kevan finished as the 17th RB while only getting 201 carries. With a rookie QB likely under center from day 1, Kevan will be asked to shoulder the load to take the pressure of the $50 million dollar QB. With receiving options like Johnnie Morton and Brandon Lloyd, look for Eric Johnson and Barlow to be very involved in the passing game. Negatives - Any one who had Barlow on their team last year will be hard pressed to have Kevan anywhere near their team this season. The 49ers were awful last season, and after three series they seemed to abandon the run. He is not guaranteed to be the starter, as the 49ers spent a third round pick on Frank Gore, and Maurice Hicks and Terry Jackson stole some time last season. His ypc was down to 3.4, which was a full yard below his career average. For a RB with top ten potential last year, his finish as RB #27 was a huge disappointment. He must prove himself this year or his career could be over. Draft Strategy - With the ability to start 3 RBs each week, I selected Barlow to be RB #4. I wasn’t sure I wanted to go this route, but by selecting 4 top 25 RBs, I won’t have to reach for RBBC players later or pick up career backups that may produce if a starter goes down. There are no transactions available in this format, so I can’t hope to get the next Reuben Droughns or Nick Goings if a RB doesn’t pan out or a starter gets injured. With Gates and McNabb selected between picks, this was not a tough decision. I’m scared of a repeat of the 2004 season, but would have been more scared of late rounds picks of players like Tony Fischer and Kevin Faulk had I passed on RB here.
Positives - Jeremy Shockey is a two time pro-bowler who has been the go to guy for the Giants. He is a large target (6’5”, 250 lbs) with good hands who is coming off a 6 TD season. While Eli Manning still develops into a top NFL caliber QB, he is able to depend on Shockey to make tough catches in the red zone. He is a match-up problem for defenses and I look for him to mature into a top 3 TE. Negatives - Shockey has been inconsistent in the past, and was dinged up with minor injuries over the last two seasons. He only played in 9 games in 2003, and was often listed as questionable on the injury report last year. He spent the summer in Miami away from his teammates and some of them were unhappy about his commitment to the team. He seems to be a distraction in the locker room and the NY media may be a little much for him. He has yet to live up to his potential, this season may be no different. Draft Strategy - Looking for TE or QB at this point, and I had Vick, Collins, and Green all in the same tier. Shockey was above Heap and Crumpler in my opinion, and I still wasn’t ready to jump into the WR game. The week 5 bye week is going to be a problem in many leagues this season, but I can’t avoid talent when I see it.
Positives - Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan have upgraded an already potent Raider offense. Collins finished as the 15th rated QB while playing in only 14 games. Almost 3500 yards and 21 TDs last season could approach 4000 yards and 30 TDs this year with the improvements on offense and a full 16 games. The defense of the Raiders is atrocious and should lead to many shoot-outs. Negatives - Kerry Collins has more career interceptions than touchdown passes. In 10 seasons, he has only once finished the season as a top 10 QB. He is not a mobile QB that can create much with his feet. Randy Moss brings a lot of baggage with him and may disrupt the team harmony in the locker room. Draft Strategy - Vick was taken, Green and Collins wouldn’t make it back around. I think Kansas City will have the better of the two defenses, so I see Collins having more passing opportunities. I really wanted a QB from the AFC West, and dealt with the week 5 bye once again.
Positives - Muhsin Muhammad was the top fantasy WR last season, setting career highs for yards (1405) and touchdown catches (16). He enters the 2005 season as the unquestioned #1 WR for the Chicago Bears. Muhsin has 3 seasons with over 90 catches, including over 100 in 2000. With the recent success of the receivers in Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay, the NFC North seems like a division where a WR could succeed. His size and athleticism should make him the primary target for Rex Grossman in the red zone. Negatives - The Bears WRs combined for 3 touchdown receptions last season. The offense sputtered and there was no consistency. Muhsin had a career year last season, and the previous two seasons he only had 3 TDs each year. The question is how much will Muhsin regress to the mean. The lack of a solid # 2 WR will lead to double teams all season long for Muhsin. Draft Strategy - With the RB position set, strong starters at QB and TE, we can begin to address the WR position. I have slacked on WR on purpose, but only because of the Survivor, best ball format. It is my belief that the WR position is the most inconsistent. A player who gets 15 targets one week may get 4 targets the next. It is not like a starting RB who will get 20 carries. There are normally not multiple TEs to spread the wealth around. But each NFL team will start at least two WRs; many will run 3 WR formations. If a team runs the ball well, the WRs may never get involved. Weather plays a bigger factor. I decided before the draft that I would not select a WR early and load up at RB. I would rather have 7-9 mediocre WRs that have the ability to put up occasional big games as compared to a standard 5-6 WRs that are drafted as WR 1, WR 2, and WR 3. Chad Johnson scored TDs in less than half the games he played. At WR #30, Muhsin is a valuable player for my squad as he will see plenty of targets and could have some monster weeks. He had too much talent for me too pass up the opportunity at this point.
Positives - Eddie has averaged 57 catches and almost 950 yards over the past 3 seasons. He averaged 17.5 yards/reception last season and is the #1 WR on a top three offense. While defenses put their best coverage player on Tony Gonzalez and the focus most of their energy on Priest Holmes, Kennison is in the position to take advantage of the #2 CB. He does not run into double teams and has the ability to separate and make the big play. Negatives - Kennison is 32 and has only one top 20 finish (18th last season) in the last 5 years. Last years 8 TD catches may have been an anomaly as he had 5 scores in 2003 and a meager 2 in 2002. He is an afterthought in the red zone, probably behind even Jason Dunn. Draft Strategy - I need to pick up WRs for the next couple of picks after the long layoff. I liked him better than # 2 receivers like Housh, Stallworth, and Givens. Only negative was that he was another player with the dreaded week 5 bye.
Positives - Keenan McCardell is a proven veteran. From 1996-2003, Keenan had at least 60 catches every season and he finished in the top 25 6 times. He is the #1 WR on the Chargers roster and a rejuvenated Drew Brees offers the opportunity to return to the top 25. After holding out with the Bucs last season, Keenan made 31 catches in only 7 games. With defenses keying on Antonio Gates more this season, look for McCardell and his 6’1” frame to get more attention in the red zone this season. Negatives - McCardell is 35 years old, and the chances of him putting up top 20#’s again are a stretch. San Diego moves the ball through LTII, he is their 1st and 2nd option. Gates set an NFL record last year for TDs by a TE. This leaves few options for the WRs to get their touches. Reche Caldwell, Eric Parker, and Vincent Jackson will all push for playing time. San Diego’s success last season will lead to a very tough schedule, with games against Philly, New England and Indy on the road. Draft Strategy - With over 40 WRs off the board, and still only two on my roster, I was pleased to select Keenan McCardell. His best days may be behind him, but the opportunity to select the #1 WR on an AFC West team this late is amazing.
Positives - Justin is a young receiver who has improved his catch total each of the last 3 years. The reunion with his offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger from Tennessee and a healthy Chad Pennington should lead to a top 30 finish for Justin. He has ideal size (6’2” and 218 lbs) and led the team in targets last season. Negatives - Pennington had a great chemistry with Coles before he left to go to Washington, and his return should make Coles the #1 receiver. Pennington has to remain healthy for the offense to click, and reports of his arm strength being weakened will not help Justin. Draft Strategy - Considered QB and Defense at this point, but I really like Kerry Collins as my #1 this season and only 2 defenses have been selected as of this point. Of the remaining WRs, I think McCareins has the most available upside. Coles should be the possession receiver, while Justin can be the big play man.
Positives - Brian Griese is the clear cut starter in Tampa Bay this season after starting last year as the # 3. Brian has the opportunity to return to the top 20 QB he was in Denver from 1999-2002. TB QB Brad Johnson finished at # 9 in 2003, so the possibility under Gruden exists for Griese to put up QB #1 stats. Michael Clayton should improve after his stellar rookie campaign. Pittman should remain the third down back that is involved in the passing game, as well as the addition of TE Alex Smith, who could be the best rookie TE this season. Brian has the tools and players to lead this team into the playoffs. Negatives - Chris Simms and Luke McCown also want to lead the Bucs, and are both capable QBs. Gruden has not had much success since the Super Bowl win in 02, and may be under pressure to put Brian on a shorter leash. Another WR must step up with Clayton, with Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard not getting any younger. Cadillac Williams will also have to prove a capable RB to take pressure off the passing game. Draft Strategy - There was a run on QBs in the 11th round, but I was able to get the player I wanted. He would not have made it any further, as two more quarterbacks were selected before I chose again. With 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 QBs and a TE at the midway point in the draft, I’m very comfortable with my team and my chances against my opponents.
Positives - The Atlanta Falcons led the NFL in sacks in 2004 with 48. They also had 29 turnovers and 5 special teams and defensive touchdowns. The addition of Edgerton Hartwell to play alongside Keith Brooking should make a solid core for the Falcons to attack on defense. Negatives - Their schedule is tougher this season due to winning the NFC South this past season. The Falcons ran the ball 55% of the time last season, and their success in rushing the ball led to less time on the field for the defense to make plays. They only held opponents to 10 points or less 4 times last year. Draft Strategy - There are no points for yardage and unless a team throws a shutout, points against count very little as well. The scoring system dictates that turnovers and sacks are where the points come from, and this is what the Falcons do well. I like the additions the Falcons have made on defense and wanted to pick my 1st defense before the runs started. Three more defenses were selected in the 10 picks after mine.
Positives - Jabar is the # 2 WR on the Houston Texans coming off of his best season as a pro. His yards per reception increased to 15.4 last season as he hauled in 41 receptions for 632 yards. As the offensive line in Houston continues to improve and Domanick Davis establishes the running game, Carr should have more opportunities to utilize his WRs. Andre Johnson will demand the double team, allowing Jabar the opportunity to take advantage of man coverage. Negatives - Jabar is recovering from off season rotator cuff surgery and will need to be fully recovered to make an impact. He has three seasons under his belt, and has yet to distance himself from his competition. Jabar had 70 targets last season, compared to 142 for Andre Johnson. Corey Bradford and Derrick Armstrong would like some of those targets. Draft Strategy - At WR 58, I’m hoping for three or four big games were he has 5/80 and a TD. He is a player who should never see action in a standard redraft, but may have some value in a best ball format. #2 WRs are hard to find at this point, and with the start 3 WR requirement, I need more wide outs desperately.
Positives - Terry Glenn is the #2 WR in Dallas and is reunited with former Patriot teammate Drew Bledsoe. He put up 394 yards in 5 games in 2004 before being injured for the rest of the season. He averaged 6.8 targets per game, which last season would have placed him in the top 40 WRs. The last two times he played a full 16 games he was WR # 27 and #20. With Keyshawn starting on the opposite side, the Cowboy wide receivers have some veteran experience to move the ball downfield. Negatives - In 9 seasons Terry Glenn has only remained healthy two times. He is 31 years old and has always counted on his speed for separation. Bill Parcels has a history with Terry, referring to him as “she” due to his injury plagued history in New England. Witten and Keyshawn may steal a majority of the receptions. Draft Strategy - Again, the opportunity to draft a #2 WR with big play potential fit in with my plan. He is WR #6 on my roster, but with my 1st 4 picks spent on RBs, I don’t need anymore help there. I’ve got two good QBs locked up, and a solid TE and defense. It is too early for a kicker in this format, so I’ll continue to look at WR and possibly a third QB.
Positives - As a 1st round draft choice last season, JP Losman was able to learn behind Drew Bledsoe and get acclimated to the NFL. This off-season, Drew ended up in Dallas and JP has been anointed the starter. With two strong receivers, a stud RB, and an excellent defense, JP should have the tools available to succeed. The coaching staff understands he will have some rough outings, but will give him the room to develop into an NFL QB. Negatives - He is in his first season as a starting NFL QB. The game is much faster on Sundays than it is during practice. He should have some decent games, and some awful games. He is a third string fantasy QB that I would not want as a back-up in a standard redraft league. Draft Strategy - This is not a standard redraft league, and I wanted a third QB who would be on the field. The situations in CLE, DET, CHI, and MIA were more questionable than BUF, hence JP is on my squad. If I’m using JP’s stats this season, either he is doing much, much better than I anticipated, or Collins and Griese turn out to be horrible.
Positives - David saw his career take off after joining the Patriots in 2001. In the three seasons he remained healthy, he finished as WR#34, WR#33, and WR#32. Not bad for a player selected in the 16th round. As he transitions to the Redskins, he has the opportunity to make an immediate impact. Coles (168 targets) and Gardner (105 targets) are gone, and Santana Moss and Patten become the two new starters. He had 7 games with double digit fantasy points last season. Negatives - At age 31, Patten is getting a bit long in the tooth to learn a new offense. He is a small receiver, only 5’9. Patrick Ramsey has not gotten a ringing endorsement from the coaching staff, and if Jason Campbell takes any snaps the season is likely already doomed. Strength of Schedule data indicate WAS has one of the toughest schedules for wide receivers. Draft Strategy - If Clinton Portis starts to get keyed on, my man Patten should help me pick up some points. He is in a good situation to help the Redskins as Joe Gibbs should pull out the stops this season if he wants to remain in coaching. . His amazing 18.2 yards/reception should lead to some nice games, which is crucial in my strategy to have a lot of #2 receivers posting occasional big games. Again, “lots of receivers” was the draft plan in this format, as I don’t have a stud or even a semi stud WR to hang my hat on.
Positives - A first round selection in 2004, Michael has a season under his belt in the NFL. The Falcons were horrible last season at WR, with Peerless Price and Dez White not making the top 50 at WR. Jenkins is in a position to crack the starting line-up with a good camp, and if Michael Vick improves on his passing attempts, he could be a steal this late in the draft. Negatives - He is not a sure starter; he’s competing with Peerless Price, Dez White, and 1st round selection Roddy White. The Falcons only passed on 46% of their offensive plays, and led the league in rushing. No ATL WR had more than 3 TDs last season, and Alge Crumpler should continue to be the teams leading receiver. There is limited upside for any Falcon WR. Draft Strategy - We are at WR 72; this is the 8th WR on my squad. He has a chance to start, and at this point in the draft he seemed like a better option than a rookie WR. He did avg. 17 yards/reception last season, although it was only on 7 catches.
Positives - Jack Del Rio has built his team around defense. Mike Peterson and Darryl Smith should anchor this crew who early last season showed they could keep their team in tight, low scoring games. They should improve this season with more experience and little turnover. Negatives - No D/ST touchdowns last season. No game breaking star on defense. Conservative offense leads to conservative games with fewer opportunities to create turnovers. Draft Strategy - I needed a 2nd defense, they have potential. Defenses were starting to come off the board and this seemed to be where the best value was.
Positives - Top Kicking prospect of 2004. 80% FG conversion rate with a long of 53 yards. Young offense in the AFC West should lead to lots of scoring opportunities. 54/55 extra point attempts last season. Negatives - Missed the filed goal that would have had the Chargers advance in the playoffs. The Chargers schedule is ridiculously difficult this season, with games on the road in NE, PHI, and IND. It will be tough for SD to repeat last season’s performance. Draft Strategy - He’s a kicker, but I was targeting an AFC west kicker due to high scoring games. Elam, Janikowski, and Tynes were selected, so I’m happy to get Kaeding here.
Positives - Alex Smith was the 2nd TE drafted in the 2005 draft. He was a third round selection out of Stanford. He goes to the Bucs, where he will be given the opportunity to contribute right away. His competition is Anthony Becht, who is known more as a blocker than a receiving TE. The TB TEs has been known to have good #’s in the past under Gruden. In 2004 they combined for 59 catches and 4 TDs. Negatives - He is a rookie and may not see the field right away. He has to learn to pick up the blocking schemes and the playbook, and beat out several veteran TEs. And then he may get to see three targets per game as Clayton, Pittman, and Cadillac Williams should be the focal points of the Bucs offense. Draft Strategy - I think Alex Smith starts from game 1 and I think he’ll put up top 20 #s. I hope this occurs before week 5 when Shockey is on bye. I thought Travis Taylor would remain until next pick or I’d have selected him here.
Positives - Josh had a decent rookie season and should build on it in his sophomore campaign. He went a respectable 24/31 on FGs, with a long of 53 yards. He was perfect on XP attempts, 21 for 21. He should be the clear cut starter, but someone will probably be brought into camp to push him to improve. Last season he finished as the 22nd ranked fantasy kicker. Negatives - The Jags need to improve their offense this season. 21 XPA is pathetic. Without more opportunity to score, Josh will never be a #1 kicker. Draft Strategy - I wanted a 2nd kicker in a warm climate or indoors. His last outdoor cold weather game should be week 13 against CLE. I felt he was best K available I felt confident would retain his job. I don’t like some of the other Kicker movement going on in the NFL.
Positives - He has the opportunity to outplay Samie Parker for the #2 WR role on the most prolific offense in the NFL. He was a first round selection out of UCLA for a reason, but never meshed with the offense in Philly. Dick Vermeil has found a way to bring the best out of players who have struggled on other teams (Priest, Trent Green, Kennison). Negatives - FredEx may not make the squad and has never proven himself to be worthy of his high draft selection. He talked his way out of Philly and may become a team cancer in Kansas City. He has never finished the season as a top 60 fantasy WR, and has a career high of 2 TDs in a season. Draft Strategy - Total flyer pick. He may have a couple of decent games as a Chief. As WR #9, he is not expected to contribute much, but if I can use him twice this season, he’ll have been a successful pick.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Forums |
News | Login
/ Signup | Contact
Us |