Survivor I - Chad Pennington Commentary

NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24

Recent Stats

YR	CMP	ATT	PYD	PTD	INT	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	FPT	RANK
2002	276	399	3120	22	6	29	49	2	254.9	14
2003	189	297	2139	13	12	21	42	2	163.2	25
2004	242	370	2673	16	9	34	126	1	207.2	22

Positives - Mike Heimerdinger joins the Jets from Tennessee, taking over at the new offensive coordinator. After transforming the Titan’s offense from a grind-it-out run game to an air-it-out vertical passing attack, Herman Edwards hopes he will do the same for the Jets. Pennington’s all-time favorite target, Laveranues Coles rejoins his former QB, and Justin McCareins is reunited with the O.C. he formerly excelled under. Pennington could realistically put up 3,500 yards and 25 TDs. Curtis Martin is also getting long in the tooth, which could result in more passing attempts now that Lamont Jordan is not there to spell him.

Negatives - Pennington has been in the league five years and is yet to play a full season. This year he is coming off offseason rotator cuff surgery, and it is unknown if he will be ready to go when training camp starts. Even if he is ready to go, his history dictates that his chances of starting over 14 games aren’t the best. While Martin is approaching the NFL’s senior citizen club, he is still the epitome of consistency, and the Jets will rely on him for a good part of their offense.

Draft Strategy - Heimerdinger’s teams average 3,800 yards and 24 passing TDs over his 10 years as an O.C. Those kinds of numbers from Pennington in the 11th round would represent great value, and he will serve as a more than capable #2 QB. I don’t need Pennington to put up big numbers every week, just to cover Bulger’s bye and maybe contribute one or two other weeks when the Jets are trailing and need to air it out. Had originally targeted the Steelers Defense with this pick, but with them off the board, I got a great QB2 in the middle of the QB2 run.