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Survivor I - RoarinSonoran Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - After his second consecutive MVP and a record-setting 2004 season, not much has changed to think he won't at least come close to that stature again this season. Three 1000-yard WRs return in Harrison, Stokley, and Wayne, as well as a stud RB in Edge. Manning has yet to miss a regular season game in his seven-year career, and everyone knows that you can't score fantasy points if you're not in the game. He has the tools and the skills to once again post big numbers. Negatives - One cog in Indy's 2004 engine was TE Marcus Pollard, who is now with the Lions. This absence could disrupt Indy's usual two-TE set. Contract problems with Edge may disrupt the team's chemistry, so the pre-season will be one to watch. A drop-off is expected, as the 40-TD mark has only been breached four times (I'm willing to accept 'only' 30-35 TDs). Draft Strategy - Drafting Manning wasn't my initial plan, but picks 1-6 didn't go as I expected. So, instead of the "stud RB theory", I went with the "stud stud theory".
Positives - 5.0 ypc in a backup role as a rookie last year, Jackson has been named the starter. His size and speed should help grind out those tough yards. Supported by a passing game and an improved o-line, he'll have his opportunities. Negatives - Although Jackson has been named the starter, Faulk will still be in the mix and taking away carries. The goal-line situation has yet to be resolved, so hopefully Faulk won't be assigned the 'vulture' role. Draft Strategy - After passing on an RB in round 1, I couldn't afford to not take one this time around. Jackson has the skills to fill Faulk's shoes, and I'm willing to take a flyer on him here. One of the draft chat comments that followed this pick alluded to Jackson being an "RB on a passing team". Well, that never stopped Faulk from being at the top of draft lists over the years.
Positives - Once again, I've selected a 2004 backup who'll be the featured back in 2005. And like Jackson, Jordan averaged over 5ypc in that role. In moving out of CMart's shadow and into the spotlight, he's a good fit for Coach Turner, a proponent of a balanced attack. With Moss and Porter on the outside, Jordan should be able to find some room to run. Negatives - He's now a Raider. I *hate* the Raiders, and I hate drafting them. Having been a backup for four years, Jordan hasn't had the opportunity to show he can handle the load. The Raiders' defense was nothing to write home about last year, and being porous again this season would hurt the running game if they have to play catch-up. Draft Strategy - As the RB ranks were getting thin at this point, I knew I needed to select a strong RB2 before they were all gone. Some may see Jackson and Jordan as unproven quantities, but I see them as diamonds in the rough. I can't wait to see them all polished up!
Positives - While not a backup last year, Bennett also moves into the spotlight this year. As WR2 behind Mason last year, he pulled down 80 catches for 1247yds and 11 TDs. With Mason and his 96 catches gone, Bennett becomes the go-to guy. Henry joins Brown in the backfield, which should provide enough punch to keep the passing lanes open. Negatives - Most of his numbers came with Volek under center. That shouldn't be as much of a factor this year with Mason gone, but it does leave a question of chemistry with McNair. Also adding to the chemistry question is Henry and Brown working the RBBC. Calico is coming back from injury, as well as legal troubles, and may not have enough presence to prevent the defense from cheating towards Bennett. Draft Strategy - The time came to start picking my WRs, and Bennett was sitting there at the top of my draft list. While I don't expect him to rack up 28/517/8 every three games (like he did in a span last year), I feel he'll put up reasonable and consistent numbers.
Positives - Two words, Randy Moss. With Moss drawing the attention, Porter should find himself open. He comes in off of his best season as a pro, with just under 1000yds. With the addition of Jordan and a running game, defenses will have to play a little more honest. Negatives - Two words, Randy Moss. Porter was primed to be the "the guy", and then here comes Moss. If Moss decides he wants to play, he can certainly steal looks away from Porter. Curry also returns, and can steal some passes in the WR3 spot. Draft Strategy - Did I mention that I hate the Raiders? :) I'm taking a chance selecting an RB and WR from the same team, but sometimes you have to go with the best available at a position. Best-case scenario will have Jordan and Porter both lighting up the board as the Raiders score 50 (yeah, right), but I'll be happy with one putting up big numbers one week and the other playing big another week. Oh and here's hoping Moss gets lost while taking a tour of the Winchester House.
Positives - Big and strong like you want a TE to be, he has the skill, smarts, and hands of a WR. With the addition of Mason and Clayton to improve the WR corps, defenses won't be able to double-team him. Negatives - He's coming off an ankle injury with reconstructive surgery, and has missed mini-camps. Mason and Clayton will take looks he normally would have gotten in the past, as he was the bulk of the passing game. Draft Strategy - I really wanted Heap, and since TEs were starting to quietly be taken, I didn't think he'd last another round. Gonzo and Gates in the 3rd round? Nah, Heap in the 6th is perfect for me. Plus, he's a Sun Devil, man!
Positives - He has the size and ability you want in a receiver. Projections have him in the 6-8 TD and just under 1000yds level. With the best-ball format, that might just be enough. He has a decent WR2 in Toomer, great RB in Barber, and good TE in Shockey as a supporting cast. If Manning can shake off his rookie blues and avoid the sophomore jinx, Burress has all kinds of potential for a great season. Negatives - Burress has long since had all kinds of potential, but has a tendency to be lazy and inconsistent. He needs to shake the "Randy Moss School of Receiving" and live up to his potential. Manning also needs to break out, else this will be a long season. Draft Strategy - Once again I've selected a player who's getting the spotlight opportunity. I hadn't planned on that, but hey, I'll go with it. At this point in the draft, I'm starting to load up at WR and RB, wanting to take the best available. Survivor scoring is a best-ball format, so the more bodies I can throw out there, the better chance for three of them to score highly each week.
Positives - With 58/767/5 last year, he should improve as Pathon is no longer on the team. He has a good supporting cast in Horn, McAllister, and Brooks, and they could be a force if they can all stay healthy and on the same page. Negatives - Hamstring problems have hurt him in the past, but he did manage to play all 16 games last year. Staying healthy is key to any player. He also needs to kick his maturity level up a notch. He's another player who owns the Randy Moss book; let's hope it gathers dust on the shelf. Draft Strategy - My load-up of WR and RB continues, though there are a lot more valuable WRs at this point than RBs. I’ll take the WRs that are available now, and pick up the RBs as they come to me.
Positives - He's a possession receiver, and has the size to excel in the red zone. Projecting about 70 receptions, almost 1000yds, and a half-dozen or so TDs, and Johnson becomes a nice addition to the roster. If he and Glenn can avoid the injury bug, and throw in Jones and Bledsoe in the backfield, there could be some good numbers popping up in the Lone Star State. Negatives - Although it didn't seem to appear last year, his "me first" attitude is likely still there, just under the surface. If he can be a team player, and avoid "Leon", I'll be happy. Bledsoe joins the cast in Dallas, and like Johnson, is near the end of his career. Does Bledsoe still have enough left in the tank? Time will tell. Johnson also needs a healthy Glenn to keep the defense honest. Draft Strategy - I also hate the Cowpies, so this was another bitter pill to swallow. :D Alas, one can't always draft based on team alliances, but on what the player brings to the table. Johnson may no longer be the stud of years gone by, but he's still good enough to be a stud at least a few games out of the year, and that should be enough in this best-ball format.
Positives - If you can look past the last 12 months, he was a damned good RB. Negatives - He's a pot head, a fruit cake, a quitter, a....well, you get the picture. He has a big mountain to climb, what with a four-game suspension looming, trying to come back from a year off, 20-30lbs lighter, a much-heralded rookie in Brown ahead of him. Draft Strategy - Well, someone had to be the Mississippi River Boat Gambler, and I decided to give it a shot. Will it pan out? We shall see. If all he does is break loose for a 70yd TD on a 3rd and inches play just once, that might be the kick I need to avoid elimination. Once I start sending him telegrams that I buried some pot in the endzone, I'll have the Steal Of The Draft(r) on my hands.
Positives - A career season last year gave him a #7 fantasy QB standing. He managed to do this with a backfield that was injured more often than they were healthy, his #1 receiver in Smith out for the year, and "MushHands" Muhammed and a rookie Colbert picking up the slack. His backfield is back, Smith is back, and Colbert is ready for his second year, so a decent season awaits Delhomme. Negatives - A healthy backfield could lessen the need for a passing game, though the return of the injury bug could also hurt it as the defense stacks the passing routes. Delhomme has a good framework to work with, but it could just as easily come crashing down. Draft Strategy - The backup QB run was on, so it was time to get in while the getting was good. Delhomme is good in a quiet way, and should prove to be a more than sufficient QB2 behind Manning.
Positives - One of the highest scoring and most accurate kickers of all-time, and he kicks for a team that lights up the board. Near-automatic on XP (has missed only two in his career), and also does well from 40+ (bonus points on the longer kicks). In the final year of his contract, so this could be his audition for a new contract or a new team for 2006. Negatives - Not-so-strong on kickoffs, he was relieved of that duty last year. The only other negative would be his personality, but if he’ll just shut up and kick the ball, he’ll be fine. No one likes kickers anyhow. Draft Strategy - While kickers generally have about the same value, I wanted two studs who could put up big points on a weekly basis, instead of one who gets 3pts one week and 15pts the next. Drafting #1 and #12 wouldn’t get me a consistent score, so my goal was to go after #1 and #2, and to do so would require drafting them a little early. While other teams will be relying on their PK2 during their PK1’s bye week, I’ll have PK1 and PK1a.
Positives - He’s a workhouse-type back who was a surprise sleeper in 2003, and had high hopes for a great 2004 season before getting sidelined for the season with an injury. He blocks well and can catch the ball, a well-rounded back. If healthy, he should get the starting nod should highly touted and drafted rookie J.J. Arrington not pick up the pro game fast enough. As a backup, he could still vulture some TDs, and that may be enough for a Survivor win during a given week. Negatives - Umm, he’s a Cardinal? Once he finds another team, he’ll likely lead them to the Super Bowl. lol He returns from a broken leg and dislocated ankle suffered in the 2004 preseason. If he’s fully recovered and can stay healthy, he’ll have to beat out his other negative, Arrington, for the starting spot. He’s climbed that hill before, bumping future Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith to a backup role last season before getting injured. Draft Strategy - I deviated from my kicker plan as I felt Shipp wouldn’t last another round. I had only three RBs to this point, and the pickin’s were gettin’ slim.
Positives - He’s a career just-under-80% kicker, though he’s had much better success in the past two seasons, above 85%. He’s improved from 40+, coinciding with giving up the kickoff duty three years ago. 40+ means bonus points, so this is a good thing. Like Vandy, he’s also missed only two XP. His QB Plummer quietly finished in the #5 spot in 2004, and production means opportunities to score. Negatives - For just about any other position, being 35yo would be a negative. He has the same name as a favorite movie mass murderer. If you rearrange the letters in his last name, you get “Lame” or “Male”. (yes, I’m reaching) Draft Strategy - I returned to my kicker plan, as of course Vinatieri was taken in the next pick after I took Shipp. Oh well, #1 and #3 should do nicely.
Positives - The 2005 version should be a marked improvement over 2004 with the addition of James, Winfield, Udeze, Scott, Thomas, Smoot, Sharper, Williams, Cowart, and Harris. They may not ever be confused with the Doomsday Defense, Steel Curtain, and Purple People Eaters of old, but they will be improved and should offer some fantasy point surprises. Negatives - All these new faces could take some time to gel. If they don’t, well they can’t get much worse than last year, ranked 28th in total defense. Draft Strategy - DT1s were starting to leave the board, and I wanted to make sure I got MIN as part of my DTBC package. At least, that seemed to be the consensus from the message board. Chase Stuart’s DTBC column came out a couple of days after the draft, and MIN was nowhere to be found. I’ve never really been a fan of DTs, usually grabbing a stud or resorting to playing matchups off the waiver wire during the season. Since there will be no waivers here in Survivor, DTBC is as good a strategy as any.
Positives - Led the Lions in rushing and receptions last year. A strong back, he’s a big plus to the passing game, both receiving and blocking. Could be the go-to guy should Jones go down. Negatives - Jones is the starter, and Bryson competes with Pinner for the backup role. Being the 3rd down receiving back could be his only action. Draft Strategy - Still looking for depth at RB, and the inventory is thinning more and more.
Positives - He’s a QB with grey matter, and spends time camped out in the film room. He was drafted in the first round for a reason, that being he can step in and make a difference right off the bat. Mobile and accurate, he could bring excitement to what was a dull SF team in 2004. Negatives - He’s a rookie, and will have to earn the starting position. A suspect supporting cast could prevent his skills from being exhibited. SF only plays the Cardinals twice. Draft Strategy - I wanted a third QB instead of being limited to just two, especially when one is out for a bye. Smith may not be a game 1 starter, but when he does get the nod, he could prove to be a good insurance policy.
Positives - Coach Smith now has one season under his belt, and should be able to better implement his style. The pieces are in place, anchored by Urlacher, and this could be a great defensive season. Negatives - A lack of depth could prove their undoing should injuries strike. The offense needs to excel to take the pressure off. Draft Strategy - This completes my DTBC. A #11 and a #15. I’ll take that.
Positives - He’s big and fast at 6’1”, 215lb, just like you’d want a WR to be. Given Glenn’s injury history, playing time should be more of a “when”, not “if”. He’s had limited opportunities of late, but his sophomore season in 2002 showed he’s capable of putting up a 1000yd season. Bledsoe returning to Parcells’ fold should bring a better passing game to the mix as well. Negatives - He had his opportunities last year after coming to Dallas, but didn’t make much of them. Johnson and Glenn are healthy, which doesn’t bode well for his playing time. Draft Strategy - With these last few picks, I want to load up on RBs and WRs. I’m not seeing many RBs that I like, so I’m taking the best available WRs.
Positives - He took advantage of Winslow’s absence last year, and gets that opportunity once again. 28/287/5 were some good numbers for a “backup” thrust into the limelight, and could see great improvement upon becoming a “regular”. Negatives - Will be competing for/splitting time with Shea. Absence of Winslow could hurt the entire passing game, as he would have drawn coverage. Heiden (and/or Shea) must make a Winslow-like impact to benefit both himself and the passing game. Draft Strategy - With three picks to go, I took my TE2. I was watching my Survivor-mates, as some waited until the last pick to take a TE2/PK2/DT2. They wouldn’t have been happy during a bye week if they had forgotten.
Positives - Another hot prospect, waiting for an injury ahead of him. He has size and strength, and some wheels on top of that – 4.45 in the 40. He had a good June minicamp, so he’s in a good position to earn some playing time. Negatives - A new OC and Mason leaving for greener pastures could mean too many changes for an offense to gel. Jones starts off at #4 on the depth chart, behind Bennett, Calico, and another rookie (Roby) drafted ahead of him. He has a steep hill to climb in order to get some playing time. Draft Strategy - Once again, another WR for my stable. I should be able to get more out of a third-string WR than a backup RB.
Positives - Almost 500yds and 3 TDs in a backup role last year, he has potential. He and Curtis should help take the pressure off of Holt and Bruce. Negatives - There are just too many horses ahead of him in the Rams stable. He had his knee scoped in February to repair some slightly torn cartilage, so he needs to be back to full speed by camp. Draft Strategy - For my Mr. Irrelevant, I went with a homer pick. He’s a Sun Devil, man! I ended up with eight WRs, a pretty good mix of starters and up-and-comers.
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