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Survivor I - Spoofy Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - In a league with reception points, Westbrook is gold. Despite playing just 13 games in 2004, Westbrook finished the season as the 7th best RB in this scoring system, averaging over 20 points per game. Westbrook is all about turning small opportunity into big rewards. This guy can reach the goal line promised land from anywhere on the field, breaking loose for 9 TDs from over 20 yards out, including 2 kick returns. And, his spot in the top 10 was reached with far fewer touches than his peers. Negatives - Durability is his biggest question mark. Since entering the league, Westbrook has not played a complete season. Correll Buckhalter returns from injury and the Eagles spent a 3rd round pick on Ryan Moats this year, surely cutting into Westbrook’s already limited carries. Draft Strategy - Sitting at the end of the draft order is tough enough in a league with some weak owners, but 12 footballguys (who can even write engaging haikus!) would surely be a challenge. I figured the 11 picks before me would be nearly all RBs. I suspected that possibly only Manning and Moss would be the non-RB picks. Knowing this, I ranked my top 10 RBs. I had suspicions that Westbrook would fall because he tends to get undervalued. I really hoped Moss might make it because the next WR on my board was Owens and I didn’t want 2 Eagles off the bat. With Wheelhouse surprisingly grabbing Culpepper at 11, my strategy changed a bit because now 2 of my top 10 RBs were still sitting there. Thank you, Mr. Wheelhouse.
Positives - After taking the running back reins in week 5 of last season, McGahee never looked back. He topped 100 yards in 7 of his 12 starts, and despite playing behind Travis Henry the first third of the season, finished as a top 15 RB. Henry has moved elsewhere, and the ship is squarely in McGahee’s hands to sail. There is really no one behind him to steal significant carries. McGahee is ready to roll. Negatives - The knee! In his final college game, McGahee suffered a terrible knee injury, which required surgery in 2003. He is now more than 2 years removed from the injury, and will be called upon to carry the load all season. McGahee proved he could tough it out with injuries last year, always coming back on the field for more. But there are some injuries you can’t come back from. He will also be facing a lot of 8-man fronts with an inexperienced QB at the helm. In a league with no pickups or trades, losing McGahee would crush a team’s chances of winning. Draft Strategy - It’s not my birthday, but our Survivor league left me a big gift by passing on McGahee. With an ADP of 6th overall, I thought for sure he would go, and planned accordingly. But when he fell in my lap, it was an easy switch in tactic to grab him here. I was thrilled with a Westbrook/McGahee tandem picking at the end of the order. My only concern here is that both players have durability question marks. Since we are stuck with the team we draft, losing either player for even a few weeks would be a huge blow to my odds of winning.
Positives - Andre Johnson enters his third season in the NFL, and this should be his best season yet. He improved in every facet of the game from year one to year two and I see no reason for that not to continue. Not much has changed in Houston, as he is playing with the same head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback that he's had since day one. Negatives - That same head coach and offensive coordinator that he's had since he began is probably the biggest negative about Johnson. He has big play ability, but the offensive philosophy on the Texans is run, run, run and then run some more. When the ball is thrown, Johnson is the main target. Unfortunately, so far it has only been thrown enough to make Johnson a viable WR2, instead of a WR1 where he is typically drafted. Draft Strategy - My plan here was to grab Antonio Gates if he fell this far. Unfortunately, Nipsey once again snagged the guy I was eyeing up (he took Randy Moss in round 1) 2 picks before me. With my back-to-back picks, it was going to be Gates and a top WR. Witten was my next TE, but I thought it was too early to grab him. Not getting locked into one strategy is an integral part of a good draft, so I was ready to go with either WR/WR or RB/WR instead. Of my WR options at this spot, I liked Andre Johnson, Darrell Jackson, and Hines Ward. Johnson was my top choice.
Positives - Jackson has averaged over 15 fantasy points per game the last two seasons, ranking him in the top 15 both years. Robinson had a better grip on the bottle than the football and has been dismissed from the Seahawks roster. Jackson is now clearly the top WR in Seattle (although he proved it last season anyway). Negatives - Stone hands! Jackson may want to start putting stick'um on his hands so that he and the ball can be less like oil and vinegar on the field. Jackson has averaged 11.5 drops over the last 2 seasons. Making those catches would’ve put Jackson in the top 10 at his position. He did make marginal improvement in this area, averaging fewer drops per attempt, but he still had the 2nd most drops in the league last year. This just won't cut it when the top duty on your job description is to actually catch the ball! Draft Strategy - At WR, I liked Jackson and Ward. Both players lost their opposite this season. Plaxico Burress, the former Robin to Ward’s Batman has moved to NYC, while Koren Robinson, Jackson's partner in crime, has embraced DUI and was cut. This could help or hurt Ward’s/Jackson’s value. Flip a coin. Heads Hines, Tails Darrell. I always pick tails, so Jackson makes the squad. I also considered RB here as there were still several players I liked, including Fred Taylor and Michael Bennett. McNabb also received some brief consideration. But, with reception points, I opted to grab 2 receivers and hope that 1 of the several RBs I still ranked highly would fall.
Positives - He may be a QB, but Vick's biggest positive is his legs. Last season, Vick had more rushing yards than Priest Holmes! He can break free for the long TD anywhere on the field, but he also led the league in QB redzone rushing attempts at 24, double all other QBs except Culpepper. That means 6 points for your TD instead of 4. In addition, the Falcons have been working to improve the passing game, drafting receivers the last 2 years. Negatives - If it weren't for his legs, Vick wouldn't be much of a QB. His passing yards and TDs are abysmal. Vick will produce some big weeks, but others will leave an owner wondering whether he even suited up for the game. He finished as the 12th QB last season, but his ADP position has him being drafted in the 4-6 QB range. Vick is a player with big upside, but his inconsistent scoring can grate on the nerves of even the most patient owner. Draft Strategy - I had full intention of going RB in this spot. Nipsey, the thorn in my side so far this draft, once again snatched my coveted player in Chris Brown. Taylor, Bennett, Jones and Ronnie Brown went much earlier and Chris Brown was the only guy I still wanted. I didn’t like the remaining RBs enough to draft them here, although I strongly considered Duce Staley. I’ve never been a huge fan of Vick’s because of his inconsistent play. However, in this best ball format, I had planned all along to grab 3 good QBs and hope that they would take turns blowing up each week. Vick is a great player to do this, especially with his legs, and in the 5th round was good enough value. Since I don't have to debate about starting him on a week where he may flop, he should produce enough big weeks to pile up the wins. I must admit though, I second guessed this pick as soon as I made it and still do even now as I write this.
Positives - Excluding a lackluster performance in 2003 (which still had him ranked in the top 36), Jimmy Smith has been a steady producer the last 9 seasons. He ranked top 20 in 2002 and 2004 at age 33 and 35 years respectively. He has averaged over 85 receptions a season the last 9 years, which is key when you get 1 point per catch. Smith is still entrenched as the number one receiving option in Jacksonville. Negatives - That swooshing sound you hear is the hands of Father Time's clock flying around its face. Smith is getting up there in age, now in his 36th year around the globe. All players, even great ones like Jerry Rice, hit that age wall. Smith has declined over the last few years, but still ranks in the top 36, but his days of being a fantasy WR1 are likely over. Draft Strategy - I was thrilled to find Jimmy Smith still sitting here. I get him as my WR3, which I have no doubt he will achieve, with the upside of possible WR2 numbers. The only other WR I considered was Mason, but I'll take the guy who already has a rapport with his QB over the receiver still in the QB dating stage.
Positives - Despite being suspended the first 3 games of the season, Pittman ended the year as the 14th ranked RB in this scoring system. He may have lost his starting job to rookie Cadillac Williams, but he still will be an important part of the Bucs' success this season. Negatives - A big shiny new Cadillac! Pittman is no longer the starter, being replaced by a newer model. Barring a Williams injury, Pittman's numbers will drop significantly from last season. In addition, Pittman's off-the-field issues have gotten him in trouble in the past, causing the suspension in 2004. Draft Strategy - And there's Nipsey the Thief again. I watched too many RBs fly off the board and it was time to grab some. I had my sights locked on DeShaun Foster but he went so it was time for plan B. Wheelhouse took Mewelde Moore, so that eliminated that option. Pickings were slim, so I decided to grab Pittman here. He finished top 15 last season and caught 40 balls. He will obviously be behind Cadillac Williams, but will still get playing time and can step in with ease if Williams gets hurt or falters.
Positives - Tatum Bell, Quentin Griffin, and Garrison Hearst. At the beginning of the season, these 3 Stooges were slapping, fighting and nyuk nyuk nyuking for the starter spot in Denver. Apparently, Shanahan's favorite Stooge is Shemp as Droughns, a footnote in the lineup, shocked everyone by leading the Broncos at RB. Once again the starting Bronco RB excelled, with Droughns concluding the season in 15th at RB. Negatives - Droughns moves to the Browns where the 2004 starter, Lee Suggs still remains. The 2 backs will surely split time. The question is how many opportunities will Droughns get. Suggs will be fighting for the ball and the Browns have gone with the hot hand in the past. Draft Strategy - Time to roll the dice. I wanted more potential at RB and pick 84 and 85 were the spots I choose to do it. Cleveland brought in Droughns for a reason. He also finished top 15 last season, while Suggs was below 30. RBBC is definitely a possibility, but I'm betting on Droughns producing and winning the majority of the carries. Besides, at this point, I have to take a chance with the remaining RBs on the board.
Positives - Just as the Chargers and fantasy football owners were ready to write off Brees, he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and makes magic on the field. At least for one more season, Brees will be at the helm with a supporting cast that features LaDainian Tomlinson at RB and Antonio Gates at TE. Negatives - Was last season just a fluke? Brees did face a weak schedule in 2004, which may have contributed more to his success than his talent. Excellent season notwithstanding, Brees still has 1st round pick Philip Rivers looming over his shoulder. Rivers is getting paid too much money to ride the pine forever. Draft Strategy - My plan entering the draft was to draft 3 QBs who have the ability to explode any given week. When Brees faces weak defenses he can certainly get the job done. With an ADP of 8.05, I felt he was great value at the end of the 9th round and will be a excellent complement to start with Vick and the other QB I am targeting for late in the draft, Kyle Boller.
Positives - The wheels on the bus go 'round and 'round, 'round and 'round… Most people felt the wheels on the Bus were worn thin entering the 2004 season. But when Staley got injured, Bettis transformed himself into a younger model and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. With the run-oriented Steelers philosophy, Bettis will still see playing time, particularly at the goal line. Negatives - Bettis may join Barry Sanders in the retirement home this summer. With rumors he may call it quits before the season starts, makes this a big gamble in a league where your team is locked after the draft. Even if Bettis plays again, Staley returns and reclaims his starting job, limiting the Bus to spot duty. Draft Strategy - For once Nipsey didn't steal my targeted player. Instead, Wheelhouse did. I was going RB with this pick and was hoping for Marshall Faulk. With him going, I grabbed my next ranked RB, which was Bettis. This is a risky choice as Bettis could easily retire which would make this a wasted pick. But I'm banking on him sticking around for 1 more season. And another Staley injury could make this pick a steal. Yep, I need some stars to align…
Positives - "Last year, I think me sharing time with Chad Lewis and me not being the starter kind of showed what I can do," TE L.J. Smith said. "I put up decent numbers and I wasn't the starter and I just felt like if I had the opportunity this year, I think everything will take care of itself." Smith sees a breakout season directly ahead. "This year, with two years under my belt, I'm ready to go." I agree with Smith, this will be his breakout season. Smith has established himself as the top TE on his team, beating out Chad Lewis, who may retire this season. Negatives - Chad Lewis' return this season is still unsettled, which could cut into Smith's numbers. Although he has improved his catching ability, Smith still occasionally drops what should be easy receptions. Draft Strategy - My plan entering the draft was to take either Gonzalez or Gates in the 3rd round. When both were taken, I switched strategies to taking a guy with big upside at good value. Smith, who has an ADP of 10.05 looked like just the guy I needed. I drafted him as the 11th TE taken, and I see him finishing at least that well, with the potential to finish even higher.
Positives - Williamson is a speedy receiver who will stretch the field and catch the long balls. With the departure of Randy Moss, Williamson will look to step in and pick up the some of the slack. The Vikings were willing to spend a 1st round pick (7th overall), so they have plenty of confidence in his ability. Negatives - Rookie receivers rarely produce in their first season. Williamson will be fighting for time with Nate Burleson, Marcus Robinson, Travis Taylor and Kelly Campbell. The Vikings are promising to pass less this season, not good news for a receiver striving for fantasy points. Draft Strategy - I expect Williamson to rack up the points several weeks this season, breaking into my lineup, especially during the bye weeks of my starting 3. He will likely disappear some weeks, but with this best ball format, I think he fits perfectly into a lineup as a WR4. Getting him a round later than his ADP was value too good to pass up.
Positives - Boller has much better receiving options this year with the acquisition of Derrick Mason and rookie Mark Clayton. Heap looks to be returning from injury as well. New offensive coordinator Jim Fassel is hoping to open up the offense which should bring more opportunity for the young Boller to succeed. His numbers improved in the 2nd half of 2004, and with a better cast of receivers this year, he has nowhere to go but up. Negatives - Boller’s play can be quite erratic at times. With a healthy Jamal Lewis on the team, the main focus of the offense will still be run first with some passing sprinkled in for good measure. At this point, Boller’s numbers only make him worthy of QB3 in most leagues. Draft Strategy - Entering the draft, I targeted Boller as my QB3. His schedule this season looks good and he finally has a top flight WR in Derrick Mason, plus Todd Heap is (hopefully) back from injury. With Vick, Brees and Boller to choose from each week for the top score, I feel my QBs are the strength of my team right now.
Positives - Davis was on pace to have a decent season last year, but after 7 games, was sidelined with turf toe. “I think I was on pace to do very well last year,” Davis said recently. “It's just a shame that I had to get hurt. But this is a whole new season, a whole new beginning, and I've got my mind right to be able to finish this season healthy and help this team any way I know how.” I agree. Negatives - Davis hasn’t exactly racked up the receptions. In the 7 games he played last season, he only topped 3 receptions in a game once. So far in his career, he has scattered a big game here or there, but his typical output is 2 receptions for 30 yards. Not exactly stellar numbers. Draft Strategy - This pick may have been a bit of a reach, but Davis impressed me before his injury sidelined him for the 2004 season. As my WR5, I felt this was worthy of a big risk/reward type of choice. The other receiver I considered here was Todd Pinkston, but with Westbrook and LJ Smith already on my team, I thought that would be Eagles overkill.
Positives - On the surface, the Colts appeared to be a poor defense last season, allowing staggering amounts of points to opposing offenses. But quietly they placed third overall in takeaways and sacks. That’s steady output folks. Indy faces 6 easy opponents this season, with only 1 tough game, making this a possible defensive steal. Negatives - With most of the money going to offense, the Colts D is a hodgepodge of pedestrian players. With their points allowed, you aren’t going to get shut out points any time soon. The Colts special team is also far from special, so don’t expect many TDs this season. Draft Strategy - My plan at these next two back-to-back picks was to grab a good defensive combo. From the start, I planned to combine the Colts and Vikings’ schedules. Looking at the strength of schedule, the Vikings have 7 easy games and only 2 difficult. The Colts have 6 great match ups and only 1 hard game. Their schedules overlapped very well. Unfortunately, the Vikings went a few picks earlier and I was scrambling to find a replacement. I still took the Colts and will analyze another D to take when it comes back to me in 23 picks.
Positives - In 2001 and 2002 in Chicago, Booker posted top 12 WR numbers. In 2003, his production dropped, but he still managed WR3 points. His move to Miami was disappointing, but most moves are in their 1st season. The passing game should be improved this season with either Feely or Frerotte at the helm. Booker has a lock on the 2nd WR spot in Miami and should improve upon his numbers from last year. Negatives - His receptions were cut in half from his top performances in 01 and 02. In both his last year in Chicago and first year in Miami, he averaged just 51 receptions. Just one measly touchdown last year didn’t help his numbers either. Draft Strategy - Because the Vikings were taken, I decided to grab another WR here while I searched for my 2nd Defense. Booker finished as the 52nd WR last season, and I’m getting him here as the 68th receiver drafted. I expect him to finish at least as well as last season so felt this was an excellent value pick.
Positives - Despite their horrible points against and yardage allowed, the Saints still managed to rank 10th in takeaways with 32 total. Add that to 37 sacks (which ranks right in the middle of the pack at 16), and you have a decent backup defense. Negatives - The Saints were having a yardage liquidation sale last season, placing them squarely in the NFL basement for total defense. They failed to keep their opponents below 20 points until week 14 (and kept adversaries below 20 for the final 4 games). The team hasn’t done much in the off season to upgrade, seemingly keeping their fingers crossed that the current squad will improve by leaps and bounds in 2005. Draft Strategy - Pickings were a bit slim in the defense department but the Saints meshed pretty well with the Colts schedule. When the Saints have tough games, the Colts have easy ones. And when the Colts have their bye and a couple harder games, the Saints have their easiest opponents. I’m hoping this committee approach will be as good as having a top-ranked defense.
Positives - The addition of rookie tight end Heath Miller will significantly improve the position because it gives the Steelers a quality pass-catcher over the middle. With the departure of Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh has no set number 2 receiver, and with Miller’s excellent pass catching abilities, they may have their replacement. Negatives - The Steelers have not utilized the TE position in past years, connecting an average of just 19 catches the past 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is a run-first offense, and when they need a short pass, RB Duce Staley is also a capable receiver. Throw in that Miller is a rookie, and the odds are not in his favor for a highly-productive season, as least not this year. Draft Strategy - I skipped my 2nd TE in the 16th round because there were 4 I liked and figured at least 1 of them would make it to me. No such luck. Wiggins, Pollard, Kinney and Stevens all went and I was left without much in the way of choice. I debated between Miller and Steve Heiden, but finally settled on the rookie.
Positives - One hundred nine and counting is Graham’s current tally for consecutive extra-point attempts made (81 of those as a Bengal). In addition, he has missed just 7 of 56 field-goal tries the last 2 years. Since joining the Bengals, Graham improved his field goal percentage to over 87% and ranked as the 5th best PK last season. He seems to have found his home in Cincinnati. Negatives - Graham’s kickoffs need some work, as he had just 2 touchbacks last season. However, since there are no fantasy points attached to that stat, I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. Draft Strategy - I put off the kicker position long enough and my 228 and 229 picks were set aside for them. I was very pleased to see Graham here as I have him ranked in my top 10. Considering the 1st kicker went in round 12, it couldn’t work out much better than this.
Positives - The Steelers have ranked in the top 10 in kicker scoring 3 of the last 4 years. Reed excelled last season in the less-than-ideal conditions in Heinz Field. Since joining the Steelers, Reed has improved each season and was awarded a 5-year deal. He finished as the 3rd best kicker in 2004. Negatives - Eight of his games are played at Heinz Field, one of the toughest stadiums for kickers (although it hasn’t affected him much – he has a better field goal percentage at home then on the road). Draft Strategy - Kicking beside Graham will be Jeff Reed. I also had him ranked in my top 10 and feel this combo should give me a leg up on the competition. Okay, that was pretty lame humor, but after a 7-hour draft, the jokes start failing. My apologies.
Positives - The Bills signed Williams as an undrafted free agent last year and he impressed the coaches enough to make the team. Of course, he sat behind Willis McGahee and Travis Henry on the depth chart, but late season injuries forced Williams onto the field the final weeks and he did well. Henry is gone and Williams looks like a front-runner to back-up McGahee. Another injury and Williams could see significant time. Negatives - Too small to be an every down back, Williams is better suited for 3rd down and spot duty. It is far from certain that Williams will be McGahee’s primary backup. Buffalo may acquire a free agent to fill that role, or split the carries between Williams and ReShard Lee. Draft Strategy - Looking at my team, I felt my RBs were fairly weak. I had Westbrook and McGahee and a ton of question marks. I had planned to grab Buckhalter in case of problems with Westbrook but he went before I could get my hands on him. Williams seems to be leading the pack right now to backup McGahee and I figured he was worth this late rounder in case I lose McGahee to injury.
Positives - Minnesota has one of the easiest rushing schedules this year. Onterrio Smith is gone for the year, which leaves one less person Fason battles for playing time. Different RBs have excelled at different times, so Fason has a good chance of proving himself in that offense. Negatives - Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore and Moe Williams all have a piece of the RB pie, leaving a very small piece for Fason. Add Culpepper to the mix, and now he has crumbs. Draft Strategy - Minnesota’s rushing schedule looks promising and Fason has 1 less RB to compete against with the year-long suspension of Onterrio Smith. With an ADP in the 14th round, this may represent my best value in the draft. If Fason can find a way into the top Viking spot, this last round pick could work his way into my regular lineup.
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