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Survivor I - Wheelhouse Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - The biggest positive is that, in this scoring system, Daunte Culpepper led all players in fantasy points, including Peyton Manning and his miraculous record-breaking season. Culpepper 421 points Manning 409 points What's he going to do without Randy Moss in 2005? Even if we erased Randy Moss' statistics from 2004, Culpepper still had 3950 yards passing with 26 touchdown passes, not to mention his 406 yards rushing and 2 rushing touchdowns. We all know that if Randy isn't there, some of those touchdown passes will go to someone else. That "someone else" is a strong WR corps of Nate Burleson, Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson and 1st round pick Troy Williamson, plus tight ends Jermaine Wiggins and Jim Kleinsasser. The change may be just what the Vikings need. That offense doesn't look damaged at all. I'll give you another positive - the Minnesota defense has improved over the off-season, which could lead to better field position from turnovers, thus giving a greater chance for red zone scores. One more positive: How many bad passing games do you see? (TB, @CIN, NO, @ATL, BYE, @CHI, GB, @CAR, DET, @NYG, @GB, CLE, @DET, STL, PIT, @BAL, CHI) Negatives - Some think the Vikings offense will sputter without Randy Moss and his effortless 40-yard catches downfield. I'll be honest; I think Culpepper's numbers will decrease because of the Moss departure. The question is - How much will his numbers decrease and will it even affect his fantasy production on a weekly basis? I think his touchdown numbers and yardage numbers will be slightly lower, but nothing drastic. Another negative is that the Vikings lost their offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to the Dolphins. Replacing Linehan is offensive line coach, Steve Loney. So does this mean more of an emphasis on the running game? That is yet to be determined, but a possibility nonetheless. Draft Strategy - With the 11th pick in the draft I wanted to get a player with the best value, but I also didn’t want to handcuff myself without a RB. In the end, value won out. I chose Culpepper thinking I had the best player at the QB position for this particular scoring format. There is a big bonus to having a strong, consistent QB putting up big points every week. Not many owners have that luxury and if I’m one of the few, it greatly benefits me.
Positives - The biggest positive is that Owens is a finely-tuned machine when it comes to catching the ball. Not only is he good at what he does, but he is on a very productive offense led by a great quarterback in Donovan McNabb. The two may have their spats, but when it becomes game time, both have their sights on doing whatever they can to gain victory. Owens is a top flight receiver that will likely put up much needed points every week. In the last 5 years, Owens has averaged 89 receptions, 1293 yards and 13 touchdowns. Negatives - Obviously the thought of a holdout was a concern, but Owens is attending training camp (but says he won’t be happy). He believes he outperformed his current contract and should be paid what he’s worth. It’s doubtful that his contract will be restructured and that may cause some unneeded stress for him and the rest of the team. Another cause for concern regarding Owens is his knee/leg injury that sidelined him at the end of the 2004 season, all the way up until the Super Bowl. If his play at the Super Bowl is any indication of how his 2005 season will be, then we probably have nothing to worry about. Draft Strategy - I don’t think everyone would’ve done what I did. Even though I had the 11th pick in the draft, I never thought I wouldn’t have a running back after my first two picks, but that’s exactly where I was after selecting Owens. So why take Owens and not a running back? I was all prepared to select Willis McGahee, but he was taken one pick before me. As I looked at the other running backs available (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Corey Dillon, Steven Jackson, Jamal Lewis) that might interest me, I concluded that I was going to continue to go with the best value available. For me, that was clearly Owens. Even if Randy Moss was still on the board (which he was not) I still think I would’ve picked Owens, just because I think he has something to prove and I like how he gels with McNabb and the Eagles offense. I knew I had the best quarterback and the best wide receiver with this pick. I’d rather have that, than take a chance that the 11th best running back would outperform Terrell Owens in terms of fantasy production. I think I made the right choice, but I absolutely have to take a running back with my 3rd pick and probably my 4th pick. I’ll have to agonize for 20 more picks and watch the running backs disappear, but I’m gambling that my decision will be worth it.
Positives - Williams, was a first team All-America running back at Auburn last season and was taken by the Buccaneers with the 5th overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. Two other running backs were selected ahead of Williams (Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson), but Williams is considered to be the outright starter and immediate impact, whereas the others have some competition. Despite playing alongside Ronnie Brown at Auburn, Williams managed to finish the 2004 season at Auburn with 1,718 all-purpose yards. Only James Brooks (1,800 yards in 1979) and Bo Jackson (1,859 in 1985) gained more all-purpose yards in a season for the Tigers. Negatives - At 5’11, 217 lbs. Williams is not a bruising back, but more of an explosive quick cutter, much like veteran teammate Charlie Garner, but bigger. Williams is improving on his receiving game, but that is not his forte, although he did catch 21 of his 45 collegiate receptions last season. The job looks to be his to lose, but veterans Michael Pittman and Charlie Garner, both experienced receiving backs, will likely get more 3rd down play than Williams. Williams may not be an every down back just yet and that could hurt his production this season. Draft Strategy - After not taking a running back in either of my first two picks, I absolutely had to take one here. At the time, I had my choice of Michael Bennett, Kevan Barlow, Ronnie Brown, Fred Taylor, Chris Brown, Travis Henry, Duce Staley, Cedric Benson, and DeShaun Foster. Why did I choose Carnell Williams? Every single back, with the possible exception of Michael Bennett, had big question marks relating to playing time and position battles. I had two picks coming to me in the next four and I wanted both Bennett and Williams. Williams is more of a risk than Bennett, but Williams has the potential to be an elite rookie running back, that we all salivate over come week 6. It’s a risk vs. reward, and I was banking on reward. I foresee the Buccaneers making great strides offensively and I expect Carnell Williams to be a major contributor from the get go. That could not be said about any of the remaining backs on the board, with the exception of possibly Michael Bennett, whom I hoped to choose two picks later.
Positives - Two words – contract year. Not only is it a contract year for Michael Bennett, but he’s finally healthy and poised to make an impact as the starting running back for a great offensive team. It also helps to have your coach in your corner. Mike Tice on Bennett this year: “I think Michael Bennett could be a player that could have a great year for us. He's had another exceptional off-season, and I anticipate that he could have the biggest year of his career.” Vikings RB coach Dean Dalton on Bennett’s blazing speed – “Bennett was clocked in 9.91 seconds and 10.0 seconds in 100-meter track races this spring. The 9.91 would have been a fifth-place finish in the last Olympics in Athens, Greece," "He's smoking." Bennett is healthy for the first time in two years after recovering from major ankle and knee surgeries. "He's better now than he has ever been, and he has matured.” One more positive – The Vikings new offensive coordinator is former offensive line coach, Steve Loney. With Loney coordinating the offense, I suspect the Vikings will put more of an emphasis on the running game, which would surely benefit Bennett. Negatives - While Michael Bennett may be the starting running back as of right now, Mike Tice has been known to shift things around and change his mind. Although it’s a positive response from Tice on Bennett’s chances this season, we’ve learned long ago to take whatever Mike Tice says with a grain of salt. Another concern for Bennett owners is that he is an injury risk. He was healthy this time last season too, but then the injury bug struck him in the preseason. The Vikings running game looks to be solid once again this season, but if you happen to select Bennett, be sure to consider backup Mewelde Moore and possibly rookie Ciatrick Fason. Draft Strategy - After shockingly not selecting a running back in either of my first two picks, I absolutely had to grab my starting backs before all of the talent was picked over. Luckily there were two backs still on the board that I considered securely locked in as the starting back. One was Buccaneers rookie, Carnell Williams (whom I selected two picks prior) and the other was Michael Bennett. Bennett does have competition in Mewelde Moore, Moe Williams and possibly rookie Ciatrick Fason, but it's his role to lose. That couldn't be said of the other backs still on the board. I was fortunate to have Bennett available. Passing on him with this pick, would've been draft suicide, considering I'd have to wait another 20 picks before my next selection. It was a no-brainer.
Positives - Rod Smith is a consistent, productive veteran receiver on a good offensive team. He has seen an increase in fantasy production over the last two years and has averaged 80 receptions over his last three. Smith is still the #1 wide receiver for Denver, despite Ashley Lelie’s emergence. I don’t anticipate that changing anytime soon. The departure of Shannon Sharpe last season meant an increase in nearly 300 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns for Smith. The 35-yr old remains on pace to be Jake Plummer’s go-to guy, especially in the red zone. Negatives - Rod Smith is 35 and is only getting older. He can’t keep the #1 wide receiver role forever. Although, Smith may not lose his #1 position this season, Ashley Lelie is emerging as a threat to his production and could decrease his overall numbers. Draft Strategy - After going QB, WR, RB, RB, I needed to solidify another strong, capable, productive WR for my team. Rod Smith, Jimmy Smith, Derrick Mason, Chris Chambers, Deion Branch were among the better wide receivers available. Why did I choose Rod Smith? After having a sub-par 2003 season, Smith rebounded nicely in 2004 becoming the 15th best wide receiver. The only wideout with a better season ending rank that was still available was Brandon Stokley. I’ll take the more polished, consistent, #1 receiver over any #3 receiver every time.
Positives - Derrick Mason has improved his reception totals each of the last 6 seasons. He has emerged as an elite receiver catching 95 or more passes each of the last 2 years. Mason has missed only 6 games in his 8 years in the league, which proves his durability. He’s consistently improving year after year and now with Baltimore, he’ll be the #1 wide receiver option for the Ravens, compared to last year where he had an emerging Drew Bennett stealing his production. Despite the solid receiving competition last year, Mason managed to catch a career-high 96 passes. His only competition this season is tight end Todd Heap. Negatives - Ravens quarterback Kyle Boller is no Steve McNair, but on the flip side, Boller has never had a wide receiver with the talent of Derrick Mason to throw to. It remains to be seen, how effective Mason will be in the Ravens weak passing attack. Will Mason suffer due to the weak passing game or will the offense flourish due to Mason’s presence? This is a big question mark that won’t be answered until the season begins. I tend to think the system helps the player more than the player helps the system, but either way, don’t expect Mason to duplicate his 90+ reception performances of years past. Draft Strategy - With a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR already selected, I could’ve gone tight end here. Todd Heap, Dallas Clark, Randy McMichael and Alge Crumpler were among the available tight ends I coveted. My concern was, if I take a tight end here, what value would I have at wide receiver 20 picks from now? If I could get a better receiver now and still get one of the tight ends I had my sights on, that would be a win-win situation. Plus, the better value of all players available was from the wide receiver position or the quarterback position, but thanks to my 1st round selection of Daunte Culpepper, I didn’t have to worry about that. The logical choice for me was to again, go with experience, consistency and talent and that meant Derrick Mason. My top 3 wide receivers are each #1 receivers on their respective teams. All of my wideouts fall into the top 17 among all wide receivers from last season. Although I may have some question marks at running back, my quarterback position and wide receiver positions are loaded with talent, experience and consistency.
Positives - Although Mewelde is not slated as the starting back for the Vikings right now, he clearly has shown that he is capable of moving the ball, catching the ball and doing what’s asked of him. As a rookie last season, Moore was thrust into the starting running back position due to injuries to Michael Bennett and a suspension to Onterrio Smith. He didn’t disappoint, rushing for 92, 109 and 138 yards respectively, not to mention 12, 7 and 5 receptions for 98, 70 and 30 yards. A very Priest-like performance from the rookie was enough for anyone to take notice. This season, Moore looks to be the 2nd back on the depth charts behind Michael Bennett, due to the one-year suspension of Onterrio Smith. If Bennett gets injured, which seems to be an often occurrence, Moore takes over. If Moore’s performance last season is any indication of what he’s capable of this season, he could be a steal middle-round pick. Negatives - The obvious negative is that, as of right now, Moore is not the starting back in Minnesota. Incumbent running back Michael Bennett is in a contract year and he’ll likely do whatever he can to keep his #1 status. Moore can only benefit greatly if Bennett falters or is injured. Moore has outstanding receiving skills, which will surely be utilized on 3rd down situations, but his real value is if he winds up as the starting back for an extended amount of time. Draft Strategy - Moore was taken to back up the often injured Michael Bennett. Not only do I like Moore’s talent and skills, but he proved last season that he can do it all from a running back standpoint. He is one of the better receiving backs in the NFL and he’s led by one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. That alone, spells value in my book. So why take Mewelde here, with the 7th pick? The other backs available had big question marks relating to position battles. Taking Moore here gave me peace of mind that I’ll have the Minnesota running game pretty well covered and in the event of an injury, I’ll have the answer waiting on my bench.
Positives - McMichael is coming off career highs in receptions (73), yards (791) and touchdowns (4). This is the last year of his contract, which should raise the eyebrows of every fantasy owner. With the Miami offense looking to make major strides in 2005, this should benefit McMichael. New offensive coordinator Scott Linehan got a lot of use out of his tight ends in Minnesota, but none had the talent and skill that McMichael brings. If you thought last season was McMichael’s pinnacle, you may be in for a surprise. Negatives - McMichael is no stranger to the law. His off the field antics have him in trouble after allegedly hitting his wife. The league could fine and/or suspend him for his actions, but as of right now, he is not expected to miss considerable time. Another concern is with the change of coaches in Miami. It’s possible that McMichael would have to earn his way back as a major contributor on offense. It’s possible that head coach Nick Saban will focus on the downfield talents of Chambers, Booker and Boston and not so much the tight end position. If that’s the case, it could mean less production from McMichael. Draft Strategy - I needed a tight end and I kept putting it off to secure value at other positions. Six other tight ends were selected before this pick (Gonzalez, Gates, Shockey, Heap, Crumpler, Dallas Clark). McMichael was the 5th ranked tight end last year and for me to get him in the 8th round as the 7th tight end taken in the draft is reason enough for me to be excited about this pick. Why did I take McMichael and not Eric Johnson, who was also available? Although Johnson had more receptions and yards in 2004 than McMichael, his end of the season rank was 8th compared to McMichael’s rank of 5. I also have more confidence in the Dolphins offense over that of the 49ers offense. McMichael has improved each of his three years in the league, whereas Eric Johnson might’ve had a fluke season. That’s yet to be determined, but my gut was to take McMichael.
Positives - Marshall Faulk is healthy once again, but he is not the same player he used to be. Knowing this, he decided it was best to hand over the reigns to second-year star in the making, Steven Jackson. Faulk won’t be a mainstay on the sidelines though, he’ll likely flank out as a receiver and contribute more to the passing game. We all know what Faulk is capable of, so in the event of an injury to Jackson, consider Faulk an adequate replacement that could pay big dividends in the Rams wide open offense. Even without the starting role, Faulk will still contribute, especially in the passing game, which bodes well for those that are rewarded points per reception. Negatives - While Faulk may be healthy this season, he is not close to being the player he was in the past that managed to reach a record 2000 total yards for four consecutive years. Faulk has chronic knee problems that keep him from being the explosive, quick-footed back that he once was. While Faulk relinquished his #1 running back role to lessen the load on his body, it’s possible that even a part time workload could prove to be too much to handle. Faulk’s value lies on his ability to stay healthy and the chance that he might see more involvement in the event of an injury to Steve Jackson. Draft Strategy - With my next two picks I wanted to get Marshall Faulk and Jerome Bettis. I decided it was best to grab Faulk first and hope that Bettis can last two more picks, before I pick again. Although Faulk is not the starting back in St. Louis, he’ll still see the field as a receiver. In the event of an injury to starting running back Steven Jackson, Faulk will likely step in, which would definitely increase his value and help my team.
Positives - T.J. Duckett scored 19 touchdowns over the last two years (11 in 2003, 8 in 2004), that’s not too bad considering he’s backup running back to Warrick Dunn. If given the opportunity to start, he could put up big numbers. Regardless though, he’s capable of putting up multiple rushing touchdowns on any given Sunday, simply because he’s clearly the Falcons goal line back. Negatives - Even when Duckett does get a chance to start (Dunn injury) he has shown inconsistency as the starting back. The Falcons offense is much more in sync when they can rely on a pass-catching back, unfortunately, Duckett is not one. Duckett seems to get the majority of his yards in the 2nd half, to give Warrick Dunn a rest. Although, he seems capable, he may not be able to put up consistent numbers, even if he is given the starting role. Draft Strategy - I wanted Jerome Bettis, but he was selected one pick before me. T.J. Duckett is another insurance pick for me - not because I have Warrick Dunn (I don’t) but because I needed to get another “value” running back, before they are all picked over. When other owners are choosing the Kevin Faulk’s and the Moe Williams’ of the league, in the 15th and 16th rounds, I’ll be choosing an unsigned free agent wide receiver or a quality kicker. Getting my running back roster taken care of now, will pay dividends in the rounds to come.
Positives - Tyrone Calico is a big target at 6’4, 220 lbs. In addition to his size, Calico has speed to burn. With Derrick Mason now in Baltimore, that leaves Drew Bennett and Calico as the remaining main options for Steve McNair and new Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow. He looked very promising last season before falling to a season-ending knee injury. The fact that Tennessee did not decide to pursue free agent receiver Rod Gardner, leads me to believe that Calico is very much included in their 2005 plans. Negatives - His ceiling this season completely depends on how he’s able to recover from his knee injury, which included a torn medial meniscus and structural damage to his ACL. Will he be able to return to pre-injury form or will he have any setbacks. Just the possibility of such is cause for concern. Calico could very easily outperform his ADP, but are you willing to take the gamble? Draft Strategy - I had my sights on Calico since my last pick, 20 selections ago. Eight receivers were selected in that stretch, but Calico was not one of them. In the draft applet chat section I kept saying to the other owners “fall to me, fall to me.” It was Calico I was referring to and he did in fact, fall to me as the 11th pick in the 11th round. You know what they say – at 11:11 make a wish. Calico is my wish. Why the big interest in Tyrone Calico? The Titans offense lost a major contributor in Derrick Mason, but it opens up Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico to fill in as the #1 and #2 wide receivers respectively. My instinct tells me that Bennett will be the heavily covered receiver, which will leave more open plays for Calico. With the new heavily offensive-minded Norm Chow as the Titans offensive coordinator, we could see big things from the Titans offense. Calico is a gamble, due to his recovery from knee surgery, but if my thoughts are correct, he will easily outperform his ADP and perhaps have a season like Peerless Price did in Buffalo.
Positives - Perhaps the biggest positive for Kurt Warner is that he finally has a receiving corps similar to what he had in St. Louis. The Cardinals boast three capable receivers in Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson. All three were first round picks, with the ironic exception of Boldin, who was a second round pick. Not many teams can say that about their receivers. Warner is obviously capable of doing great things on the football field, maybe all he needs is a strong receiving unit, like he had with the Rams? Negatives - What caused Kurt Warner to fall from grace among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks? The only tangible setback was his injury to his finger. Since that injury, he has had trouble with snaps and holding onto the ball. He doesn’t get the same zip on downfield passes that he used to and thus his passes tend to have more air under them often resulting in an incompletion or an interception. This is a big negative, and could very well be the reason for Warner’s continued decline. Draft Strategy - I needed a backup quarterback and in my opinion, Kurt Warner was the next best available. I focused on securing my key positions before grabbing a backup quarterback, hence the lack of talent still on the board. I don’t plan on starting Kurt Warner over Daunte Culpepper, so this is not really a pick of importance, but of need.
Positives - Ronald Curry is pretty much as athletic as they come. Last season he gave us a glimpse of what he’s capable of, until he suffered a torn Achilles tendon and was lost for the remainder of the year. Curry, like Hines Ward, was a quarterback in college. He knows the game well and only recently has begun to showcase his talents at the wide receiver position. As of right now, Curry will be the 3rd wide receiver option on a very potent Raiders offense. In the event that something happens to Randy Moss or Jerry Porter, Curry’s value could sky-rocket. Negatives - Let’s not forget Curry tore his Achilles tendon late last season (week 13 to be exact). Even though he’s an athletic stalwart, he still has to recover. September will be nine months after the injury - will that be enough time for recovery and rehabilitation? That remains to be seen. Even if fully healthy, he is still only the #3 option for the Raiders passing game. Brandon Stokley has shown that #3 receivers can produce, but it isn’t likely that Curry will be able to put up similar Stokley-like numbers without something happening to either Randy Moss or Jerry Porter. Draft Strategy - Ronald Curry really impressed me last season and I think he’s capable of being a big contributor to the Raiders offense this season, especially with the talents of Randy Moss drawing coverage his way. Curry has speed, hands and the presence of mind to know what the quarterback is thinking, seeing as how he was a former quarterback himself. Last season, pre-Moss, Curry (as the #3 WR option) managed to secure 50 receptions and 6 touchdowns by the end of week 13. If he can do that again this season, he’ll surely outperform his ADP and would likely give my team a big lift grabbing a talent like that in the 13th round.
Positives - Washington defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is a defensive-minded genius. At least that’s what history dictates. He’s seen success with Tennessee, Buffalo and now Washington. It’s hard to find a track record with results like that, but that’s exactly what Williams brings to the table. The Redskins increased from 27 sacks in 2003 to 40 sacks in 2004. They only allowed 81.5 yards per rush last season (2nd best in the NFL). Negatives - The Redskins may be on the verge of being an elite defensive team, but how does that translate to fantasy production? They were ninth in sacks (40), only 3 teams had fewer fumble recoveries, which isn’t good news. The Redskins were a middle of the road team in terms of interceptions (18) and they scored only 2 defensive touchdowns, compared to Buffalo’s league-leading 10. The Redskins may have a strong defense, but as of right now, it’s not amounting to stellar fantasy points. Draft Strategy - Look at Gregg Williams’ track record – that’s why I made the pick. They have a favorable schedule and in my opinion, they are on the verge of being a quality fantasy defense.
Positives - At the time of the pick, Gardner was still with the Redskins, but it was apparent that he was either going to be cut or traded. It turns out Carolina picked him up and he’ll likely be the #2 wide receiver for the Panthers behind Steve Smith. The Panthers needed a tall receiver to take over for the departed Muhsin Muhammad and Rod Gardner at 6’2 fits the bill. While Steve Smith will very likely be the go-to guy for Jake Delhomme, Rod Gardner will still get plenty of looks himself. Second year receiver Keary Colbert is having hamstring issues in training camp, which also further opens the door for Gardner to excel. Negatives - Gardner is new to the Carolina offense, unlike Keary Colbert. Even though the Panthers want Gardner to fill the role of the departed Muhammad, it may not be that easy of a transition. Redskins fans will tell you that Rod Gardner is not all he’s cracked up to be. Although he has never had less than 46 receptions or 4 touchdowns in a season, he hasn’t exactly lived up to his lofty expectations of a first round draft pick. Draft Strategy - Value – I knew that Gardner was not going to stay with the Redskins. The moment David Patten signed, he was gone – the only question was, where is he going? At the time of the pick, it was still up in the air. I was hoping it wouldn’t be Tennessee, because that would mean that the Titans aren’t that high on Tyrone Calico (my 11th pick) coming back strong after injury. I would be happy with Seattle or Carolina and as luck would have it – he’s Carolina bound. To get a player with Gardner’s talent and skill this late in the draft is a steal, in my opinion. The fact that he’ll likely be the #2 wide receiver on a good offensive system is icing on the cake.
Positives - This league rewards 1 bonus point for field goals over 40 yards and 2 bonus points for field goals over 50 yards. David Akers converted 27 field goals last season and 15 of them were 40 yards or more. The fact that he is on the Eagles means more opportunities for extra points. Akers converted 41 of 41 extra points last season. Negatives - Akers has never had more than 2 field goals of 50 yards or more in a season. He has 9 career 50+ yard field goals and overall he is 60% from 50 yards or beyond. Draft Strategy - I normally wait longer to pick a kicker, but with the scoring system rewarding for longer field goals, I decided it was worth the pick. I had already secured my starters and most of my backups. Any other pick from here on out will likely be a defense, a safety valve or a risk pick that has value. What’s not to like about Akers? He’s consistent and he’ll likely be in the top 5 among kickers, as he’s reached that level 4 of the past 5 seasons.
Positives - The Dolphins defensive unit has always been a stellar fantasy defense, however last season the unit as a whole took a dive down the rankings as the 20th best fantasy defense. Coming back from injuries include Tim Bowens (missed 14 games last season), Larry Chester (also missed 14 games) and Junior Seau (8 games missed). The secondary took a hit losing Patrick Surtain to the Chiefs, but they turned right around and signed the capable and underappreciated veteran, Lance Schulters. New Head Coach Nick Saban was a defensive genius with LSU and now he’s bringing his defensive intelligence to the NFL. Negatives - Saban would like to use a 3-4 defense, but he may not have that luxury until he gets the right players for the scheme. Even though Saban is a defensive minded coach, he has to adjust to the NFL and that could take some time. The Dolphins defense will likely improve from last season, but will they warrant fantasy consideration? That’s yet to be determined. Draft Strategy - I took Miami here, because they have always been a strong defense, despite the down year last season. I’m banking that Nick Saban’s presence will revitalize a team that historically has been strong year in and year out. After finishing 20th among fantasy defenses last year, one has to think that ranking will go up.
Positives - Did you know that Boo Williams had 79 targets last season (9th best among Tight Ends), including 18 red zone targets (4th best among Tight Ends)? He’s fairly young (26 years old) and is considered one of the more athletic Tight Ends in the game. Negatives - The Saints have two other Tight Ends on the team in Shad Meier and Ernie Conwell that will likely take away production from Williams. Although he may still get his red zone targets once again, he probably will not see a lot of yards. Draft Strategy - The Tight Ends still available were becoming weaker and weaker and I needed a backup to Randy McMichael. Boo Williams has the talent and skill to be a big contributor on offense, but the Saints primarily utilize him as a big red zone target. In the event that the Saints have a change of plans offensively, Williams could be a big factor in the offense. I’m not banking on that, but the potential is there, hence the pick.
Positives - If Stephen Davis can come back from micro-fracture surgery on his knee, he could potentially still be a big contributor to the Panthers running game this season. DeShaun Foster is an injury risk and rookie draft pick Eric Shelton may not be ready to contribute just yet. If this is the case, Davis could find himself as the primary back running behind a much-improved offensive line. Negatives - There are several - take your pick. Even though he’s one season removed from being a quality fantasy back, there is still the issue of recovering from micro-fracture surgery, competing with both DeShaun Foster and rookie Eric Shelton and don’t forget father time. Draft Strategy - I mentioned before that my later picks are either defenses, backups, safety valves or risk picks with value. The Stephen Davis pick is a risk pick with value. If by some chance Davis returns healthy and capable, I could come out smelling like a rose, but a lot has to happen in order to even have that chance.
Positives - The Lions scored 6 touchdowns on returns or turnovers last season. Only the Bears, Ravens and Bills had more. With kick/punt return specialist Eddie Drummond returning from injury, the Lions are likely looking at similar numbers this season. Rookie Shaun Cody will help an improving defensive line, which should increase the sack numbers. Negatives - The Lions are an average, middle of the road defense that only has fantasy consideration due to their strong return game. If the return game falters, so does the fantasy production. Draft Strategy - I like the Lions schedule and I am banking on Eddie Drummond elevating the return game once again. Detroit is my third defense taken. I’m hoping that one of the three that I chose (WAS, MIA, DET) will make significant progress and thus increase my fantasy production.
Positives - Kris Brown has the leg to kick longer field goals and he’s on an offense that can move the ball into field goal range. Brown was 7 of 12 from 40+ yards last season. Negatives - Kris Brown’s field goal efficiency dropped from 81.8% to 70.8% last season. He is not on a team that will have a lot of extra point attempts. As of right now, Brown is an average kicker on a slightly below average offense. Draft Strategy - I needed a backup kicker to David Akers and Brown was the best available, in my opinion.
Positives - Brad Johnson is returning to his old stomping grounds in Minnesota where he has put up quality numbers in the past. He will be Daunte Culpepper’s backup and if called upon, would likely have some value, considering the Vikings are a top 5 offense in the league. Negatives - Johnson’s productivity has decreased over the last few years ultimately resulting in being released by the Buccaneers. Maybe Johnson’s skills are best used on more offensive-minded teams? Maybe age is catching up with him? Backup quarterbacks for the Vikings have seen tremendous success in the past, but that was with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who is now with Miami. Draft Strategy - I chose Brad Johnson as my last pick, because I knew he’d be available. Why would anyone but the Culpepper owner want to waste a pick on the Vikings backup quarterback? In the event that Culpepper misses time, at least I’ll know that I have the backup that has, in the past, seen tremendous success in that role.
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