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Survivor I - Worm Commentary NOTE: this draft was completed on 7/24
Positives - Well, you can’t ask for more out of your first round pick than the 1500+ rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs, 52 receptions for 550+ yards and two receiving TDs that Tiki exploded with last year. Sure, some say that he won’t repeat his great 2004 season, but with HC Tom Coughlin at the helm again this year, I expect Tiki to make another top five appearance. While some think that rookie Brandon Jacobs may vulture some rushing TDs, with 11 redzone TDs in 68 redzone carries, Tiki was one of the most effective RBs inside the 20 last year. Negatives - Barber has had a fumbling problem throughout his career, but after changes to his technique last year, he only lost 2 fumbles the entire season. Also, Tiki is 30 years old and approaching the age where running backs tend to get dinged up. Can he repeat his spectacular 2004 season? Draft Strategy - I knew I would go RB here, and pretty much knew who 1-5 would be this year, and I had narrowed it down between Barber, Dom Davis, and Westbrook in this spot. I knew none of them would be around at 2.7. My philosophy is that in the latter part of round one you have a bunch of guys who all have the potential to crack the top 5 if things go right. You just have to pick “your guy”. In the end, Tiki was my guy based on the fact that he is a proven veteran who catches a lot of balls for a RB who had a great 2004 season.
Positives - You only have to look back to Lewis’ 2003 season to see what he’s capable of. With 2000+ yards at an amazing 5.3 yds/carry, Lewis has shown that he CAN be an elite back. Projecting Lewis’ 2004 numbers out to an entire season (he missed 4 games on league suspension), you get 1340+ yards and 9 TDs. I project Jamal to slightly eclipse those numbers this year and jump into the top 10 at RB. Negatives - You never know what’s going to happen with Jamal Lewis. He may be in jail 4 months from now and that’s a risk you take when drafting him. Also, with to major knee surgeries in his past as well as off-season ankle surgery, there is a definite injury risk with Lewis. Draft Strategy - I had already planned to go RB/RB with my first two, but seriously considered Chad Johnson here. In the end, with the possibility to start three RBs because of the flex position each week, I decided Lewis was my pick.
Positives - Rudi is a powerful runner who had decent speed through the hole. He had a great year last year (1450 yds / 12 rtd.), and there’s nothing stopping him from repeating. He faced a tough schedule last year, and this year with an easier schedule on paper and an improving defense, he should have more chances to grind it out. Palmer having his first full year complete under center can only help Rudi. Opposing D’s will always have to respect the downfield threat of Chad Johnson, giving Rudi some decent space to work with. Negatives - Rudi doesn’t catch very many balls (15), and he is not as explosive as some of the other backs in the league. He may also lose some time to Chris Perry this year. Draft Strategy - I was surprised that Rudi was here at this point in the third round. This was one of my quickest picks of the draft. With Barber and Lewis, I know have 3 backs that could all end up in the top 10 if things work out right. Was eying either Joe Horn or Reggie Wayne here, but they went right before me at 3.2 and 3.4. Again, RB represents strong value as there is a possibility to start three each week.
Positives - Wow, this kid had a great rookie year. With the addition of rookies Cadillac Williams at RB and Alex Smith at TE, the offense as a whole should be improved. This can only help Clayton. With veterans Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway, Clayton should not face much double coverage and while he’ll be a focal point, the offense won’t rest on his shoulders. At 6’4” he can go up and get it. I look for him to build on his 80 catches as well as his 1100+ yards of last year. Negatives - The possibility of a sophomore slump. Clayton had a good year his rookie season, but Ds will not be surprised by this kid this year. He’ll have to bring it every game against the opposing team’s number one corner. Draft Strategy - I was really hoping for Hines Ward at this pick, but he went two picks before. I had planned to take a couple QBs later in the draft so I knew I was going WR here. Looked at Burleson and Steve Smith here, but didn’t like Smith’s injury history and wasn’t quite sold on Burleson without Moss. I think with my RB core, Clayton will make a decent #1 WR for me.
Positives - Isaac Bruce just keeps on having solid seasons. Bruce caught almost 90 balls last year, and with Holt stretching the defense, Bruce is a solid second option. As always, the Rams love to throw the ball, and Bruce won’t be forgotten. I look for Bruce to grab around 80 balls for ~1050 yards and 6 TDs, solid #2 WR numbers. Negatives - Bruce is getting old, almost in his mid 30’s. Injuries could start to creep up on him. Although the Rams love to spread it around, that unfortunately means the TDs are spread also. Draft Strategy - Wanted another WR here, still waiting on taking a QB. Watching the 5th round I was really hoping for Coles or Steve Smith, but again, they were taken just a few picks previous. With a total of 5 RB/WR, I now have a solid core of starters for the RB/WR/flex positions.
Positives - The Iron-Man of the quarterback position, Favre is someone you can rely on to show up each and every week. With 4000+ yards and 30 TDs, Favre had a solid 2004 season. Favre has confidence in himself and his teammates, allowing for huge passing games. With the Packer defense looking to have a down year, Favre could end up throwing the ball more as well as later each game. If Favre’s WR corps stays healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw for 4000+ yards again, with even more TDs. Negatives - Favre is getting older and the retirement talk has started. Though the Pack’s WR corps has the talent, they haven’t been a consistent unit. At this point in his career, it’s hard to predict how long Favre can keep up his usual level of production. Draft Strategy - Debated WR or QB here, and decided that the value wasn’t there at WR. Wanted Collins here, but he went 3 picks previous. Favre was an attractive option to me for his propensity to have big games. While he will undoubtedly show up every game, he tends to disappear some games and have huge games in others. This is a perfect profile for a Survivor league player, as you never have to choose who starts.
Positives - Lelie finished 2004 with his first 1,000 yard season, and has improved his numbers every year. He had a huge yards per reception last year and if he can catch a few more balls this year, he will be in for a big season, perhaps somewhere in the 12-15 WR range. He’s tall, quick, and does well as the number two guy. I expect Lelie to have a breakout season. Negatives - I think more has been expected of Lelie than what he has shown his first three years in the league. He’s always under-performed, and really hasn’t had that breakout year to prove that he can be THE guy. Draft Strategy - In my mind I had to go WR here. Although Clayton and Bruce is a nice tandem, they aren’t sure things. If you don’t draft a stud WR, depth at this position is key in survivor leagues, as the 2nd and 3rd WRs are often inconsistent.
Positives - Brady and the Patriots love to spread the ball around, so Givens will get his opportunities. Givens has been special during stretches, and has the talent to perform when he’s called upon. Had a great start to 2004 before falling off the second half of the season. With David Patten moving on to Washington, Givens will be looked upon more. Negatives - As mentioned, Givens had a horrible end to the 2004 season, catching 19 balls for 232 yards and no TDs the last 8 games. Has a propensity to disappear for stretches. Draft Strategy - Wanted another WR here, and it hurt when Kennison and Stallworth were taken right before. Would have taken Lee Evens here, but already had Bruce and Lelie with week 9 byes. Givens is young, and has shown decent improvement in his numbers throughout the last few years. I now have 4 solid WRs to fill 2 or 3 spots each week.
Positives - Well, what can you say about the Pats defense? A huge piece of the puzzle that has brought multiple championships in the past few years, the Pats defense consistently puts up fantasy points. They finished 2nd last year in fantasy points even though they were not as dominant as in years past. The New England weather is an ally to this defense, and can cause many low scoring games later in the season. Negatives - The Pats have had some big personnel losses over the off-season. Ty Law was released and LB Teddy Bruschi retired. Never mind the fact that their defensive coordinator moved on to coach another team. Draft Strategy - What it comes down to is that I didn’t like anything else on the board at this time. I could have taken another WR here, or perhaps a 2nd QB, but the value just didn’t seem to be there. If Eric Johnson wasn’t taken a few picks earlier I would have taken him, but after he was taken I knew I was going to wait until late to grab a couple TEs.
Positives - Charles Rodgers has tons of talent and will be given tons of opportunity. This is a pick with a ton of upside. Rodgers was unbelievable in college and showed flashes of that in his first few games as a pro before breaking his collarbone. He has speed and size, along with an offense that should be greatly improved this year. Negatives - Unfortunately, this pick also has a huge downside. Rodgers has not shown that he can stay healthy for any extended period of time as a pro, only playing in 5 total games in his first two seasons. He his a huge injury risk. Also of concern are his two WR mates, who could snatch up a ton of balls. Draft Strategy - As mentioned, huge upside pick here. Rogers can be something special if he stays healthy. Wanted more WR depth, and the WR herd is getting thin at this point. Still waiting on the TE position at this point, and would have taken McCareins if available at this pick.
Positives - Carr showed a little bit of what he can do last year. The Texans offensive line has improved and Carr has gotten more and more confidence. Andre Johnson is a star in the making, and the two will feed off each other. Dom Davis and the running game continue to improve and take heat off of Carr. Davis also provides a good dump off option. Negatives - Carr really hasn’t shown that he can be a consistent quarterback. He’s averaged more interceptions than touchdowns so far in his career, and doesn’t have many options outside Johnson and Davis to throw to. Draft Strategy - Needed a QB to go with Favre and I figured if I can grab a QB from the middle tier of QBs, I could skate by with only having two on the roster. Carr will complement Favre well, as his inconsistency doesn’t hurt as much in a survivor league. Was thinking either Leftwich or Carr here, and Teumessian Fox made the choice easy.
Positives - Cooley is entering his sophomore year in the NFL (posting a respectable 37 catches for 314 yards and 6 td’s his rookie season), and could be a top target for Ramsey inside the red zone this year. With Laveranues Coles traded back to the Jets, Cooley may be able to take on an increased role as a possession receiver for Ramsey. If he can catch a few more balls this year, Cooley could sneak into the top 10 at TE. Recent reports say Cooley has improved his blocking and Redskin tight ends coach Rennie Simmons recently said that this improvement could lead to him staying on the field in all packages. Negatives - Quite simply, the Redskins don’t remind anybody of the Colts. There aren’t a whole lot of TDs to go around, and Cooley did quite well hauling in 6 TDs last year out of Washington’s 18 total passing TDs. His TD number could drop this year, and he’ll have to make up for that in receptions if he is going to come anywhere near the top 10 this year. Draft Strategy - Time to grab a TE. I wanted Eric Johnson in the 9th, but BassNBrew scooped him up. As the 12th TE off the board, I felt I had to grab a couple TEs in the next few rounds to salvage anything out of this position. I didn’t want teams to start grabbing backup TEs and end up with the leftovers at the position.
Positives - Buckhalter has shown that he can score when called upon. In 2003, sharing duties at RB, Buckhalter accounted for 8 TDs on 126 carries, including two games of 20+ fantasy points. If Westbrook goes down, Buckhalter’s value obviously skyrockets, but even if Westbrook stays healthy, Buckhalter could get ample opportunities close to the goaline, throughout the game to keep Westbrook fresh, or in end game situations when the game is out of hand. In the 13th round you can’t find a backup RB with more opportunity and upside than Correll Buckhalter. Negatives - Injuries, injuries, injuries. Obviously, injuries are a theme throughout the “negative” side of a lot of these picks. Buckhalter has had two serious knee injuries in the last few years, missing two whole seasons as a result. Also, while Buckhalter is a good inside runner, he won’t catch a lot of balls and that limits his time on the field. Draft Strategy - At this point in the draft, all major starting positions are filled and it’s time to draft “upside” players. At some point this season, there WILL be a team that loses their starting RB to injury for a decent portion of the season. I think to win a league like this you need to get lucky and be the guy that owns that team’s backup. Even if Westbrook stays healthy for a full season, I think Buckhalter will provide starting RB like numbers for at least a couple of weeks.
Positives - WR pickings are getting thin, and Caldwell presents as much upside as anyone left. Pre-injury, Caldwell showed good speed last year and has good running abilities after the catch. He showed a good report with Brees last year through five weeks, catching three touchdowns in that span. If he can return to form and take over the #2 WR position this year, he presents great value at this position in the draft. Negatives - Caldwell is coming off a torn ACL suffered in week 6 last year. As speed and quickness is his game, the injury could really affect his potential to pick up where he left off. Caldwell is also facing competition for the job not only from Eric Parker, but from rookie Vincent Jackson, who reports say is looking good in camp. Also, before his first few games last year Caldwell did give any signs that he can be a top shelf receiver, showing little in his first two years in the league. Draft Strategy - Still needed a few receivers to round out my lineup, and Caldwell could be a good pick if he can recover and show that he can continue to improve his game as he looked to be doing last year. At this point, while there isn’t much left at WR, I like Caldwell’s upside.
Positives - Daniel Graham plays big, and is a threat near the goal line. He had a huge start to the year, with 5 TDs in his first 4 games, so he has already shown that he has pass-catching abilities. If he can keep the nagging injuries away, there’s no reason think Graham can’t put together a solid season. Negatives - Graham had a few injuries last year and basically disappeared mid-season. Ben Watson will provide some competition for TE receptions, and Brady has not shown a tendency to look for TEs over the past few years. As everyone knows, New England spreads the ball around a lot, so it’s hard to predict how a player might fare as far as TD receptions go. Draft Strategy - Needed a TE to pair with Cooley, and Graham showed last year that he is capable of a big game now and then. That’s what you need in a Survivor situation where you don’t choose your starters, so I think he’s a good fit for the system. At this point I’m not planning on taking another TE, so hopefully Cooley and Graham can come through with a few big games.
Positives - Janikowski has a booming leg and has improved his accuracy the last few years. With the addition of some new offensive skill position players (namely Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan), the Raiders offense should improve this year and Janikowski will be a beneficiary. Negatives - Janikowski is a nut. His off the field problems have been well documented, and you never know what he is going to do. He has all the skills to succeed as a top 5 PK if he can keep himself on the field this year. Draft Strategy - The 5th PK off the board, I think Janikowski will at least match his draft position this year with the new Raider offense. I wanted Dominic Rhodes here, but he was taken 2 picks prior.
Positives - Chris Perry had a great collegiate career at Michigan, and was drafted in the first round by the Bengals in the 2004 draft. He’s a hard runner who has good receiving skills (better than starter Rudi Johnson’s), so he may see some action in the passing game this year. Negatives - Obviously Perry shouldn’t be much of a contributor should Rudi Johnson stay healthy all year. Perry only accumulated a couple of carries last year before suffering a strained hamstring and a pulled abdomen muscle, so he’s basically unproven in the NFL. Draft Strategy - Perry is a capable backup to one of my top RBs, so it was essential to grab him at some point. If Rudi gets hurt or even if he struggles a bit, Perry could get a chance to show what he’s got. The Bengals drafted him to be their future at RB, so he will get his chance at some point.
Positives - Jacobs is a big rookie who could get a chance to take over short yardage and even goal line duties for the Giants and according to recent reports, he has been impressive showing good moves for a big guy as well as good power. If he does get some goal line looks, he could be good for a few big games this year. Negatives - Jacobs shouldn’t get significant touches unless Barber goes down with an injury. He’s a rookie and a big guy who may not fit the every down back mold in the NFL. Draft Strategy - A handcuff of sorts to Barber. Reports say he could vulture some TDs this year, so I thought I’d grab him just in case. Handcuffs = good.
Positives - Mark Clayton caught 149 balls for 2,300+ yards and 23 TDs in his last two years at the University of Oklahoma. He has good acceleration and good after the catch moves, as well as a good set of hands. He broke multiple Oklahoma receiving records and should make a good transition into the NFL. He should compete to be the number two receiver in Baltimore this year. Negatives - At 5’11”, Clayton is not a big receiver and is not the fastest guy out there, though he has good acceleration. He might have a tough time adjusting to the physical nature of the NFL. Clayton also missed a few days of camp before signing his rookie contract. Draft Strategy - This is a late upside pick. If Clayton can win the second receiver job, he could be in for a few big games this year. I wanted to add one more receiver to my lineup, and I like what Clayton brings. Besides, now I have both Claytons on my roster.
Positives - The Seattle D should be at least slightly improved this year with some free agent additions (LB Jamie Sharper, DE Bryce Fisher, CB Andre Dyson). Negatives - Seattle was horrible on defense last year. With New England being my other defense, they shouldn’t be expected to contribute to my scoring most weeks, and that’s a good thing. Draft Strategy - Needed a bye week filler for New England’s week 7 bye. Seattle plays Dallas at home that week, and should be looking to stop Julius Jones after he ran all over them last year. If they can provide me with one or two other good scores during the year they will have done their job.
Positives - Lindell had a good year last year, hitting on 85% of his attempts, and making all 45 extra point attempts. Negatives - Lindell hasn’t shown that he can be counted on from long range, and only hit on 1 FG of over 40 yards last year. Draft Strategy - Needed another kicker for Janikowski’s bye week. I think Buffalo’s offense should continue to improve and perhaps so will Lindell’s numbers.
Positives - While he has only served in a backup and kickoff return role, Morris has shown good moves when given the opportunity and has produced a 5.2 ypc number in only limited duty. Morris should be the guy to step in if anything happens to Shaun Alexander, a consensus top 5 back. Negatives - Shaun Alexander is a hoss. He hasn’t shown any tendency for injuries in his five year career. Seattle will pound Alexander and Morris won’t likely see much action outside his kick return role. Draft Strategy - Last round flyer on somebody who could produce if he gets the chance. Seattle has a high-powered offense in which any capable running back will most likely succeed. If Morris gets the chance, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t produce top 10-15 RB numbers.
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