Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Overvalued QBs
Mike Anderson - Highly touted coming into the league in 2001, Michael Vick has yet to play a full season. With an average draft position of 4.07, this marks the 4th year in a row that Vick has been over hyped. So far in the NFL Vick has yet to throw for over 16 passing TDs, only reaching double digit passing TDs in two of the four years he has played. Last season, Vick played in parts of 15 games, throwing 14 TDs, 12 INTs, and 3 rushing TDs. The Falcon’s system is a West Coast offense, which Vick is entirely unsuited for. Cecil Lammey - Vick has a ton of ability and at times can take over a game. However, he is too inconsistent to be taken as the QB4 in a fantasy draft. The Falcons have a great rushing offense, and Vick is a big part of that. What they lack is a big time passing game. Vick has never been known as a great passer as evidenced by him only throwing for more than 200 yards twice in the 2004 season. Michael Vick will never be confused with Steve Young and thus one must pass on him early in the draft. Marc Levin - I actually like Michael Vick’s chances for a solid fantasy year, but he seems pretty risky as the QB6 with a 5th round ADP. Vick’s 2004 fantasy numbers were a roller coaster, he topped 250 passing yards only once, and he threw only 14 TDs against 12 INTs. While those big rush games are fantasy gold, Vick does not consistently provide them. He is a tremendous injury risk and, ultimately, you need weekly passing numbers from your fantasy QB. You are better off with guys drafted after him who will be throwing the ball all day long and rarely get injured – such as Brett Favre, Tom Brady, and Matt Hasselbeck - and if your league rewards 6 points for every TD, Vick’s value is even further eroded compared to those QBs. Jason Wood - Every season there are fantasy leaguers who stumble over themselves to roster Michael Vick, believing that his passing skills are going to reach a level where he becomes an overall elite fantasy option. Yet, last season Vick finished a modest 12th among fantasy QBs despite running for 902 yards. Looking at the Atlanta receiving corps, it’s difficult to envision how or why Vick can morph into an accurate passer in 2005, and to draft him among the top 5 or 6 at his position summarily discounts the very real risks he brings on the injury front.
Aaron Rudnicki - Tom Brady has been remarkably consistent over the past 3 seasons, finishing as the #9, #11, and #10 ranked fantasy QB. His numbers seemed to decline during the 2nd half of 2004, however, as Corey Dillon became a much bigger focus of the offense. The loss of Charlie Weis will also be tough to overcome, as he was the man most responsible for designing the offensive gameplans and calling the plays every week. A recent injury to his blindside protector in LT Matt Light is also cause for some concern. Maurile Tremblay - I like Tom Brady as both an NFL player and as a fantasy player, but it seems the two-time Super Bowl MVP’s average draft position is being pushed up a bit based on his celebrity status. I don’t see any other reason to draft him more than two full rounds ahead of guys like Drew Brees and Jake Delhomme, who in my view have similar potential. The Patriots lose offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss this year, and I would not be surprised to see a stronger dose of Corey Dillon and the running game than we saw from the Patriots last year.
Mike Anderson - Joey Harrington has an average draft position of 10.02, and is perhaps the most over rated player on the entire board. Jeff Garcia wasn’t brought to Detroit to hold the clipboard as the team struggles under Harrington. Garcia was HC Mariucci’s starter at San Francisco, earning 3 Pro-Bowl appearances. Garcia is tailor made for the West Coast offense, and with weapons Kevin Jones, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams, Garcia should take over at the first sign of trouble, and have a high-powered offense firing on all cylinders as Harrington watches from the sideline. Jason Wood - If you think Joey Harrington will remain the Lions starting quarterback for the majority of 2005, than there’s no reason to question his selection as the 21st QB drafted. But if you believe, as I do, that Jeff Garcia was brought in to run Steve Mariucci’s offense sooner rather than later, Harrington is too risky a bet when there are still eight to ten other starters on the board. Garcia went to three Pro Bowls playing for Mariucci, and Harrington has done nothing to suggest he’s capable of holding off the savvy veteran.
Chris Smith - I love Manning’s worth in fantasy leagues but he is going too early in fantasy drafts this season. In a typical fantasy league (only start 1 QB), he should never be inside the first five picks. An owner taking Manning that early will be working from behind at both RB and WR for the rest of the draft. Mark Wimer - Go here; look at Manning’s career numbers. Last year was a career year for Peyton Manning – he’s already lost one of the triplets (Brandon Stokley) for part of the season. Let someone else burn a top ten pick on Manning while you lock down a franchise running back – you’ll be glad you passed on Peyton Manning come December.
David Yudkin - Few teams in recent memory had the turnaround the Chargers had in 2004. However, their success may have been aided by a last place schedule. This year, the Bolts will face much stiffer competition. Brees averaged 178 passing yards against playoff teams vs. 228 against non-playoff foes. Against playoff teams, he had 5 TD passes and 5 INT in 5 games. Compare that to 22 TD passes and just 2 INT in 10 games against non-playoff teams. For the fantasy gurus, that’s 11.9 fantasy ppg vs. playoff teams and 20 ppg vs non-playoff teams. With an #11 ranking last year, even a slight drop-off in production will cause Brees to fall more than 2 spots.
Cecil Lammey - Carr has shown great toughness during his brief NFL career. What he hasn’t shown is an ability to get the ball in the endzone on a consistent basis. Last year Carr had 13 games in which he threw 0-1 TD passes. And during those games he threw 12 interceptions. He is rated as the QB18, but there are others like Joey Harrington rated below him that have better weapons surrounding him on offense.
Andy Hicks - Drafting Brett Favre this year is fraught with danger. Not only did Favre throw for multiple interceptions in seven games, including the four INTs effort in the playoffs, but he struggled against some of the better defenses last season. This year Green Bay looks in danger of regressing, and no matter how good Favre has been, at age 36 he can no longer carry this offense like he used to. If you draft Favre, you’ll need to play him in suitable matchups only, negating his worth. That results in another good QB having to be drafted to complement Favre. Caution is advised when considering Favre.
Maurile Tremblay - Hasselbeck is being selected as the tenth QB this year even though, among last year’s top 32 QBs, he ranked only 18th in fantasy points per pass attempt (including his 342 yard, 2 TD playoff performance against the Rams). This year he is without WR Koren Robinson; and despite all of Robinson’s various problems, Bobby Engram is not an upgrade over Robinson in terms of talent. I do see Hasselbeck as a legitimate fantasy starter, but he is going a full round or more ahead of QBs like Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, Drew Brees, and Jake Delhomme, all of whom have the potential to put up similar numbers.
Aaron Rudnicki - While the Giants have made several upgrades on offense that should make Manning’s job easier, ranking him as the #24 QB still seems optimistic. In the 9 games he played last year, he only topped 200 yards passing once and failed to throw a single TD in five of them. Plaxico Burress is capable of being a true #1 WR, but he has been wildly inconsistent during his 5 year career. Amani Toomer is coming off his worst season as a starter, and he never seemed to click with Manning in any of the games they both played in. Manning’s recent elbow injury is also reason enough to consider dropping him on your draft board.
Chris Smith - Last year, McNabb had a dream season in which he threw for 31 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions, good enough for 3rd at the quarterback position. However this year his receiving core is in shambles and he is likely to slip back some in 2005. He only threw 16 touchdowns during the 2003 campaign and he will likely slot in somewhere between his sensational 2004 campaign and the 16 touchdowns of the year prior. Early in the 3rd round is too early for McNabb.
David Yudkin - Pennington has averaged 213 passing yards and 1.2 TD per game since becoming a starter. That works out to 3,400 yards passing and 19 TD over a 16-game season. By comparison, the #16 QB last year had over 3,500 passing yards and 20 TD. However, Pennington has yet to play a full season, is recovering from shoulder surgery, never was a great deep passer, and is being asked to throw deep patterns even though his game is better suited for shorter routes. Add in a new OC that historically has run the ball into the ground, and Pennington loses a lot of luster. Things would really have to fall right for Pennington to rank 16th or better.
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