Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued RBs
Maurile Tremblay - It is the last week in August, and Mike Anderson is still atop the Broncos’ depth chart at RB. Tatum Bell will play a large role in the Broncos’ offense this year, and there’s a good chance that he’ll win the starting job by the midpoint in the season – but there’s also a decent possibility that he won’t. Anderson isn’t giving it up easily: he has looked strong in training camp and in the preseason, and figures, at worst, to be part of a strong RBBC. As the 136th player off the board, Anderson is one of the better draft-day bargains around. Jason Wood - When it was first announced that Mike “the Marine” Anderson was 1st on the Broncos depth chart, it seemed like a clever motivational ploy to light a fire under Tatum Bell. Yet, midway through August and Anderson remains the top back. Furthermore, he’s acquitted himself well in practice and preseason game action. While it’s understandable that people view Anderson as a risky proposition, how he’s not worth more than the 136th overall pick is beyond me. David Yudkin - Anderson may not end the season as the #1 RB in Denver, but for now he’s still listed as #1 on the depth chart. There is no sound reason for that, of course, given Anderson’s age, return from injury, and limited role the last few seasons and a younger, faster Tatum Bell on the roster. But on average Anderson is only requiring an 11th round investment to acquire him, and we’ve seen how well the Denver system has supported players like Anderson, Gary, and Droughns. Last year, the #48 RB had 536 total yards and 2 TDs.
Aaron Rudnicki - After struggling to produce in Arizona for several years, Thomas Jones rejuvenated his career in Tampa and eventually landed in Chicago, where he looked like a new player. Despite playing on a team that had a rotating door at QB and WR, and some holes on the offensive line, Jones proved himself an excellent dual threat with nearly 1000 yards rushing and over 400 yards receiving. While 1st round pick Cedric Benson was thought to be a better fit for the team’s new offensive system, he has yet to sign a contract so Jones has a pretty strong grip on the starting job for the time being. Finally, the free agent additions of Muhsin Muhammad at WR and Fred Miller at RT should help improve the running game. The loss of Rex Grossman at QB will hurt, but the drop-off to the backups won’t be as severe as some think. Chris Smith - There are a number of reasons to like Jones this season and his ADP of 82nd overall. First of all, he is cemented in as the top back for the Bears with Cedric Benson still mired in a contract dispute. He has a great deal of talent and played well last year behind a patchwork offensive line when healthy and finished as the 19th best fantasy back. Finally the Bears offensive line is shaping up quite nicely and he should find holes to run through. Even when Benson does eventually sign, Jones quickness and receiving skills will net him a great deal of playing time. Maurile Tremblay - Jones looked pretty ordinary when he was with the Cardinals at the beginning of his career, and that’s being generous. I’m not one to hold a grudge, however, and since then he’s shown the kind of ability you’d expect from a top ten draft choice. In Tampa Bay two years ago, and in Chicago last year, Jones has shown extraordinary quickness, good open-field moves, and surprising burst through the hole inside. The Bears’ offense was atrocious last year (limiting Thomas’s scoring opportunities), and this year may be no better, so that’s a legitimate concern. The other major concern is that, if and when rookie RB Cedric Benson signs, he will challenge Jones for the starting job. But with a current ADP of 82 overall, these concerns are being MORE than sufficiently taken into account. He is going at least a round and a half later than he should be going.
Cecil Lammey - Moore is a great value late in the draft. Yes, Mike Tice is a young Mike Shanahan when it comes to coachspeak. Yes, Michael Bennett is the announced starter for the Vikings. That doesn’t mean that Moore won’t get his chance. Moore is a very versatile back. Averaging 8 receptions in his 3 starts in 2004. Moore is also a very shifty RB, averaging 6.2 ypc in the aforementioned starts. Bennett is a straight line runner with an injury history that reads like War & Peace. Moore is a great value play, and could see significant time as a starter for the Vikings in 2005. Chris Smith - For those of you drafted Michael Bennett in the third rounds of fantasy drafts, take heed. The best running back in Minnesota is Mewelde Moore who is not starting right away but very well may wrestle the starting job away from Bennett who has looked tentative so far this preseason. Moore has great quickness, runs with surprising power for a smaller back and is a superb pass receiver. Even his coaches believe he is the best option if he can improve his questionable attitude going forward. At worst, he’ll split time with Bennett and catch a lot of passes and that alone with help him exceed his draft slot of 111th overall. If you want value then you want Moore and not Bennett. David Yudkin - Moore averaged 179 total yards per game in his three starts last year and has looked great in the preseason. Onterrio Smith is gone for the season and Michael Bennett’s knack for injury has been well documented. Many of the Vikings coaches have apparently stated that they think Moore is the best back on the team. At some point this season, there is a decent chance that Moore will be the starter in Minnesota, and finding a potential starting RB in the 10th round is a fantasy steal.
Aaron Rudnicki - Taylor has fought through injuries for much of his career, but he’s never finished lower than the 28th best RB in any season that he’s managed to play at least 10 games. Furthermore, he’s saved some of his best performances for the last 3 years when he has averaged 4.6 yards per attempt and collected 133 receptions. The Jaguars have improved their depth at the RB position in recent years with the addition of LaBrandon Toefield and Alvin Pearman, but neither is in the same class as Taylor, who should continue to be the feature RB as long as he is healthy. There is certainly risk associated with drafting Taylor this year given the knee injury he is still recovering from, but his upside makes him a value pick as the 28th RB off the board. Jason Wood - When it was revealed that Fred Taylor suffered a more serious knee injury than originally thought his draft stock plummeted as some feared the worst. Yet, Taylor’s rehab has progressed well and he’s participated in the practice on a limited basis since mid August. It now seems Taylor will be ready for the season opener barring a setback, and given the Jaguars offensive philosophy under new OC Carl Smith, Taylor should significantly outperform his RB28 ADP if that turns out to be an accurate timetable. David Yudkin - Taylor has averaged 110 total yards and 0.64 TD per game over his career. He’s always been a high-risk draft prospect based on his health issues—except this year he can be had in the 5th round instead of the 1st or 2nd. While he likely won’t score as much as he did early on, he’s still a yardage machine if he’s on the field. In the 5 mostly healthy seasons he’s played, he’s ranked 4th, 6th, 11th, 8th, and 20th. No other RB available at this point in a draft will have anywhere near that type of track record.
Mike Anderson - Quietly, Tiki Barber was the 2nd highest scoring fantasy RB in the league in 2004. Ball control HC Tom Coughlin’s teams have averaged just fewer than 450 carries a year in his 9 seasons. In his first season with Coughlin, Barber set career highs in carries, rushing yards, TDs, and yards from scrimmage. There is every expectation that after 9 straight years, Coughlin is not going to change his entire offensive philosophy, and will continue pound the ball with Barber again this season. Fantasy Owners overlooking this, as witnessed by his low 2.05 average draft position, while Barber is drafted by more astute Owners, will be left behind as he has another top 5 RB fantasy performance. Jason Wood - How many years will Barber be undervalued? Last season, despite being the lone offensive weapon that defenses planned for, Barber led the NFL in yards from scrimmage with more than 2,000 total yards, scored 15 touchdowns and caught 52 passes. He was the 2nd best fantasy RB in 2004 and has finished no worse than 15th in the last five years. To presume he’s incapable of another top-10 season would be a grave mistake on draft day.
Marc Levin - Foster’s current late 4th/early 5th round ADP allows him to be selected behind Chris Brown, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, and Tatum Bell. While injuries may be a concern, talent and opportunity are not. He has been essentially handed the starting role and we should all remember how incredible he looked in Carolina’s Super Bowl run. This is the year to expect him to translate that talent into regular season performance. The Panthers are a run oriented team that was able to make a pedestrian back like Nick Goings look like a decent fantasy option - think about what an explosive back like Foster will do. Finally, since injuries are really the only concern, his value is highlighted by being selected behind backs who carry similar injury risks (C. Brown, T. Bell, M. Bennett), some who are guaranteed to split time, and some who are not even their team’s current starter (Bell, R. Brown, Carnell Williams). As an aside, Fred Taylor’s ADP is right behind Foster’s, and he makes for a nice value pick as well. Mark Wimer - Stephen Davis has just started practicing as of August 22nd, and his repaired knee has yet to be tested at full speed. Eric Shelton is a rookie who has yet to make a statement (his OC Dan Henning recently said the following of Shelton “Somewhere along the line, we would like to see Eric become a featured back in the NFL. There is a lot of road that has to be traveled before we see that”). DeShaun Foster is the Panther’s starter, and the team loves to run the ball. He is definitely a value at pick 49 – he is worthy of a high 3rd round selection in my opinion.
Andy Hicks - Once Kevin Jones got going in 2004 he became an elite fantasy back in all but TD production. He led the league in rushing yardage over the last half of the season and averaged over 5 yards a carry in this time span, LEADING the league in both categories. Detroit will almost certainly have a better passing game this season with the addition of Mike Williams, the return from injury of Charles Rogers and a fully fit Roy Williams. Add in Marcus Pollard and a decent alternative signal caller to Joey Harrington in Jeff Garcia and Kevin Jones should be a lock to elevate the touchdown figures into the elite level as well. If you are drafting late in the mid to late first round, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Cecil Lammey - Don’t let this up and coming superstar get past you in your fantasy draft. In the last 8 weeks of the season, Kevin Jones was the NFL’s leading rusher. Let other owners in you league believe the fallacy that Steve Mariucci is a RBBC coach. Snag up Kevin Jones and watch him shine. He really came into his own at the end of the season and proved that he could be a durable, full time back, and produce on an elite level. He could use a few more receptions, and is getting better at catching the ball out of the backfield. Defenses will be distracted by the WR combo of Williams, Williams, and Rogers. This means big things for Kevin Jones as he should hardly ever see 8 in the box.
Andy Hicks - Assuming a starter will get injured can be a quick road to fantasy despair, except when that starter is named DeShaun Foster. Foster has not shown durability of any kind in his career to date. Even if he is fit, he has shown nothing worth being considered an automatic NFL starter. Stephen Davis will not be fully fit for the start of the season and at this stage of his career looks like a change of pace back at best. That leaves 2nd round rookie Eric Shelton to fill the void. Shelton fits the style the Panthers need to wear down opponents. With an excellent nose for the end zone, he is good value in the 11th round. Draft him as your 4th or 5th back and reap the rewards when he is likely to inherit the job full time during the season. Aaron Rudnicki - Stephen Davis is 31 years old and coming back from microfracture surgery on his knee, so there is a very good chance he won’t be able to contribute much in 2005. Deshaun Foster is the projected starter, but he’s had a lot of difficulty staying healthy in the past. The Panthers drafted Shelton in the 2nd round as insurance, but he may be given a chance to compete for the starting job right away. He’s a power back who can carry a heavy load and should be given the goalline duties at a minimum.
Cecil Lammey - Don’t believe the Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson RBBC talk. Benson is a workhorse. He always has been and he always will be. The Bears may start the season with the two sharing carries, but by no later than week 4 Benson will take over and never look back. Cedric is great near the goal line and in short yardage situations. He has decent hands out of the backfield and can make defenders miss in the open field. Cedric is all about getting the rock. Chicago will feed him the ball 20 plus times per game and he will wear down defenses with his punishing style. Kyle Orton is a rookie QB and the Bears will need Benson to carry the load if they want to have any chance at success. With Benson’s holdout many owners are going to shy away from this future Pro Bowler. Take Cedric in the later rounds and watch him turn it on in the latter part of the season. Cedric Benson could be a great source of playoff punch for your fantasy team.
Mike Anderson - At an average draft position of 8.01, or the 38th RB off the board, Reuben Droughns is very undervalued this season. Droughns was brought into Cleveland to be the starter, and by that alone should be drafted no later than the 32nd RB off the board. Take into account many teams with a cloudy RB position, and Droughns moves up even more. Droughns finished last season with 1,240 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Cleveland RB Lee Suggs is not equipped to break tackles inside with the power that Droughns’ has, and should be an outside the tackles, change of pace back.
Marc Levin - Every year, Dunn exceeds his draft spot. This year, with a 4th round ADP, Dunn again represents great running back value. Dunn has averaged 11.9 standard FF points per game over the last two years and he finished as the #14 back in 2004. Being selected behind injury and experience question marks such as Michael Bennett, Cadillac Williams, JJ Arrington, and Lamont Jordan, Dunn seems a much more dependable pick.
Maurile Tremblay - Faulk has conceded the starting job to the much younger Steven Jackson, but he will still be on the field plenty for the Rams this year. The Rams have experimented with using Jackson and Faulk at the same time by lining Faulk up out wide or in the slot. Moreover, Faulk is still the team’s third-down back, and his exceptional open-field run skills are tailor-made for use on screens and draws. Faulk is at the age where people might think he is washed up, but if you just watch him on a few plays in a preseason game, you will know that he’s still got plenty of quickness and moves in his arsenal. He will still be a major part of the Rams’ RBBC, but he is being drafted later than most other RBBC members who are in much lesser offenses.
Chris Smith - If it wasn’t for his serious knee injuries while at Miami U. he would be considered the next Clinton Portis. While his knee injuries are undoubtedly a concern, he only has to beat out an overrated player in Kevan Barlow to win the starting tailback job for the 49ers and by all accounts he has had a tremendous first preseason. He won’t begin the season as a starter but the season may unravel in a hurry for the rebuilding 49ers and he will see more and more playing time as the year goes on. He is certainly worth more than his current draft position of 134th overall.
Andy Hicks - Curtis Martin is being drafted in roughly the same spot as 2004 and 2003, mid to late second round and even later in some drafts. A new year brings the same old Curtis, another finish around the 18 mark. Except for one thing, he finished as the 4th rated RB in 2004. Apparently last year was an aberration to most fantasy drafters who think Martin will not come close to last years figures. Martin is a super reliable back for any fantasy squad. He hasn’t missed a game since 1998, has more than 1500 total yards in most years, averages 9 touchdowns a season and most importantly always generates points. For your RB2 you can’t go wrong with this guy.
Marc Levin - Ricky Williams will end up starting over Ronnie Brown. Yup. I said it. Brown was very late to sign with the Dolphins, he has to beat out other backs before he even earns the start, and even if (when) he does, during those first four games that Williams is serving his suspension, Brown gets to take the hits from four brutal run defenses (TB, NE, NYJ, and Den are the Dolphins first four games of the season). Ricky then gets to return to the team just in time to run hog wild against his former team, the New Orleans Saints, whose run defense was absolutely atrocious in 2005. Others in your league are likely to recognize this, however, so while his 9th round ADP is tremendous value, the advice here is that you can even reach for him a little in the 8th or a touch earlier and you will still get good value out of him.
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