Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued TEs
David Dodds - Jeremy Shockey has not performed to expectations since entering the league. With his combination of size, strength and athleticism, Shockey was expected to be a man among the boys at the tight end position. Despite mostly negative news in his early career, Shockey has finished 3rd, 11th and 6th among tight ends in his first three seasons. With the talent to push Gonzalez and Gates as an elite TE, Shockey at an ADP of TE6 could represent outstanding value this season. Andy Hicks - Jeremy Shockey is still one of the higher ranked tight ends available this season, but he has the makings to be one of the best. Last season he ranked sixth which is around his current draft slot. That was his first season under Tom Coughlin, and he missed a game and played injured in others. He also had rookie Eli Manning tossing the rock. With the addition of Plaxico Burress the Giants have a receiver who can take the focus off Shockey, and all the above points should mean Shockey heads towards the elite which he has promised since his debut season. Chris Smith - Second year quarterback Eli Manning should be more comfortable this season, and Shockey could emerge as his top receiver in 2005. Shockey has always had the talent to be a top three tight end, has averaged 4.7 receptions per game and scored a career best six touchdowns last season. Chase Stuart - Jeremy Shockey has averaged 4.7 receptions and 54 yards per game since he entered the league in 2002, numbers only bested by one tight end in the league (Gonzalez). Shockey should easily improve on his 2004 numbers, skewed downward by an unstable QB situation and Eli Manning’s poor performances. Shockey spent the offseason getting in terrific shape, and as Manning matures Shockey will challenge Gonzalez and Gates as the top TE in football. Jason Wood - Last season the Giants quarterbacks threw a combined 12 touchdown passes, and Jeremy Shockey caught six of them. Despite being self-admittedly less than 100% in 2004, Shockey finished 6th among fantasy tight ends and caught 61 passes for 666 yards. With the maturation of Eli Manning, an improved offensive line, and a (hopefully) healthy season, there’s no reason Shockey can’t significantly out produce his 2004 totals and deliver excellent value in the middle of your draft. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Last season Jeremy Shockey started the season dinged up from offseason surgery. Heading into the 2005 season, Shockey is healthy and should be primed to return to one of the top TEs in the league. With the improvement Eli Manning showed at the end of last year, Shockey is a steal for owners who draft him. "Jurb26" - I think this is the year that Shockey shows what he is capable of. Manning will step in and get more comfortable at QB this year, and the Giants also added Plax to create a downfield threat. Tiki is still scaring teams from the backfield, and I think Shockey will have more room to work with and better match-ups this year then ever before. This very well could be the year we see him jump into elite status.
Mike Brown - There has never been a question about Dallas Clark’s talent. He’s got great athleticism, excellent speed, and terrific hands for the most part. The problems have been staying healthy and the presence of Marcus Pollard. Well, at least one of those factors has been eliminated with Pollard having signed with the Lions. The other part of the equation is up to Clark. He can be one of the league’s very best tight ends, and with how much the Colts like to feature the tight end in the passing game, Clark could very well provide Jason Witten-type value. Colin Dowling - Dallas Clark is being selected at the end of round seven in redrafts despite being the veteran pass-catching tight end in the league’s most prolific passing offense. Clark finished 11th last season among tight ends despite only catching 25 passes and splitting time with Marcus Pollard. Well, Pollard is no longer on the team, and if Clark can repeat his performance from last year while adding Pollard’s numbers, he could be in the 60 catch, 700 yard, double-digit touchdown range. My gut says that will position him a little higher then TE7 at year’s end. "diesel7982" - Clark was TE11 last year despite catching only 25 passes. This year, he’ll get almost all of the TE catches with Marcus Pollard moving on to Detroit. With Peyton Manning throwing the ball, everyone is a “goal-line receiver”, but Clark definitely saw he far share of targets around the end zone. Expect Clark to get upwards of 600 yards and 5+ TDs as he becomes the #1 TE option in Indy. "Fullback Fro" - Gone is Marcus Pollard. Dallas Clark is going to get a chance to step up for the Indy offense as the only proven TE receiving threat on the roster. He really started to come on at the end of last year. In fantasy football it is always important to get players that are trending upward, and Dallas Clark is trending upward. Grab him in rounds 6/7 and you could end up with a top TE. "Iwannabeacowboybaby" - Playing tight end with Peyton Manning automatically gets you noticed by fantasy football enthusiasts. Throw in the fact that Clark has outstanding hands and can run after the catch makes him one of the top TEs to get this upcoming year. With Marcus Pollard leaving for Detroit, the sky is the limit for Clark this year. "SammyJankis" - Clark combined with Marcus Pollard last year for 732 yards and 11 touchdowns. With Pollard now in Detroit, Clark will be top dog in the Colts’ tight end rotation, ahead of Ben Hartsock and Ben Utecht. Indianapolis loves to run a two-TE set, so Clark won’t get all the tight end production for the Colts, but he should see the lion’s share of the targets. Clark will finish the year with plenty of yards and should challenge every other TE but Antonio Gates for the most touchdowns.
David Yudkin - Randy McMichael’s numbers have improved each year since debuting in 2002. He has ranked as the 9th, 8th, and 5th best TE in that time, and with Miami looking to get the offense on track, McMichael should continue to see a steady workload. He had over 70 receptions and just under 800 receiving yards and remains one of the Dolphins’ few receiving threats. "Bagger" - Randy McMichael was the fifth best tight end in 2004 but has an ADP of TE8 in 2005. In McMichael’s three years in the NFL he has ranked ninth, eighth, and fifth respectively in terms of fantasy production. I do not see a regression in McMichael’s talents, especially with the abysmal wide receiver situation in Miami. McMichael has never ranked lower than 68th in terms of overall fantasy production, yet he is taken as the 90th pick in 2005 drafts. A top five TE that can be drafted in the mid seventh round is value. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - In Randy's three years with the Dolphins, he's been #3, #2, & #1 on the squad in receptions. His involvement in the offense has grown over those three season (39-49-73 receptions). He keeps getting better despite mediocre QB play. In fact, that just might be one of the factors in his success. He's played all 48 games in his three seasons, something the three TEs above him cannot say. While Clark and Shockey may have more "upside," they have repeatedly shown to be very fragile. Following the mantra that week-to-week consistency helps you win leagues, McMichael is a great value play at TE8. "Bloom" - McMichael has improved every year and still has upside in only his fourth season. He is the probably the best short/intermediate target in the Miami passing game. McMichael has also been extremely durable, not missing a game in his career, while some of the options above him (Heap, Shockey, Clark) are more injury prone, and McMichael produced near or above the per game production those more fragile options last year. "BostonFred" - Randy McMichael is available in the early eighth round. Jason Witten will cost a late fifth. Yet McMichael scored just one fewer point per game. McMichael has improved steadily in each of his three years in the league and looked good with Feeley at QB. There's some risk with the new coach and the QB uncertainty, but he's the best of the second tier TEs.
Cathy Fazio - Eric Johnson was heads and shoulders above the field of San Francisco’s receivers in 2004. Johnson will remain the safety valve for whichever young quarterback wins the starting position, either Tim Rattay or rookie Alex Smith. Johnson was one of the leading tight ends in every category except for touchdowns in 2004. If he can get into the end zone more than twice in 2005, he will be firmly entrenched in the upper echelon of tight ends making him a great value pick at this draft spot. Marc Levin - Johnson stayed healthy for all of 2004, which was a nice change from missing all of 2003 and much of 2002 after a promising rookie year. He was the third tight end in catches with 82, his receiving average was over ten yards per catch, and he was an important piece of the 49ers’ passing attack. Young and inexperienced QBs like Alex Smith and Tim Rattay will probably look for Johnson as their outlet quite often. As the TE9 with an average ninth round draft spot, Johnson is a nice late round TE starter. Maurile Tremblay - What most of the great fantasy TEs have in common – Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Todd Heap (when healthy) over the past few years, for example – is that their teams have lacked a true #1 WR, forcing the TE to play a bigger role in the offense than is traditional. The same goes for the 49ers. They did little to address their sub par WR corps this offseason, and Johnson will again be a focal point in the passing offense. Although he had a poor second-half of the season and finished as the #7 TE last year, he showed in the first half that he has the potential to be top five at his position. "BostonFred" - Eric Johnson had 82 catches last year on a team that went back and forth between QBs and didn't have a good wide receiver. Then San Francisco drafted a rookie QB and got rid of their leading wide receiver. Somebody's got to catch some balls in San Francisco, and Eric Johnson has shown that he can get open and catch the ball (he caught over 70% of the 115 balls targetted for him in 2004).
"Family Matters" - Smith is going as the #11 TE. Now that Chad Lewis is considering retiring, the opportunity for Smith to move up looks very good. Combined, they accounted for a #5 TE ranking last year. If TO holds out then Smith’s value will be even greater. While Smith won’t get all of Lewis’s fantasy points, he should get the lion’s share and finish well above his ADP. "joffer" - LJ showed marked improvement last year, and he became a legitimate red zone target with five TDs. With the lack of good WR targets in Philly other than T.O. and the possibility that T.O.'s holdout turns ugly, McNabb should be looking his way even more this year. In an era where the TE is experiencing a rebirth of athleticism and offensive involvement, Smith is a prime candidate to take a step into the next tier with the Wittens, Crumplers, and Heaps. Waiting until ten TEs are already taken before grabbing LJ Smith is a nice value. "Tick" - I expect Smith to outperform his draft spot for two reasons: he will continue to improve and will take a larger portion of the TE pie for the Eagles. Chad Lewis has not announced his retirement, but even if he returns his contributions should be minimal. Meanwhile, LJ Smith enters his third season and should break out. Giving him half of Lewis's production puts him at eighth in my projections at the top of the heap after the solid top seven TEs.
Colin Dowling - This is quite the head-scratcher. Wiggins is being drafted as the 10th tight end despite finishing as the eighth tight end in 2004 despite playing only 14 games. Do people think he isn’t capable of repeating his 70 catch performance of last year? I, for one, wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him catch 70 balls considering Daunte Culpepper will be looking for a new favorite target this fall. Wiggins should be able to out-produce the 11th TE slot pretty easily this season. "Family Matters" - With an ADP as the 10th TE taken in the draft, Wiggins is a great value. Last year he finished as the 7th ranked TE in only 14 games played. That projects out to a top five TE. With the Vikings resigning him they confirm his value to their offense. Now that Moss is gone they may lean on him a little more. A top five TE from the #10 ADP means great value for you. You can focus on another position or two and wait on your TE while others spend an early pick on the Gonzo/Gates/Whitten early round selections. "LHUCKS" - Wiggins finished with the 8th most fantasy points by a tight end in '04 with only 14 games played. Over the course of a full season Wiggins would have caught over 80 balls. The Vikes then rewarded him with a five-year deal worth $7.3 million and a $1 million signing bonus. All in all I like Jermaine to easily exceed his ’05 ADP value. He could have 20 fewer receptions over a full 16 game season and still achieve this...which isn't asking a lot.
"Bagger" - With the lack of wide receiving options in Dallas in 2004, Jason Witten broke out as the third best tight end in terms of fantasy football production. While he is being drafted as the fourth TE in mocks, Witten should be able to duplicate on his 2004 numbers at a draft price that is over two rounds lower than the top two tight ends. The Dallas wide receiver situation is not improving in 2005 which means more opportunities for Witten. "Barry Jive and the Uptown Five" - There's one major reason I think Witten is exceptional value as TE4, even though he's listed here as a RD5 selection. He's the best receiver on his team and has a coach that makes Pro Bowlers out of his TEs by throwing to them so much. In a TE mandatory league, I think he's the clearly the #3 TE behind Gates & Gonzo. I also think it's a major drop between Witten at TE3 and Heap at TE4 simply because of the passing games employed by their teams. Even when Heap was healthy and the Ravens have had no quality WRs, Todd maxed out around 60-68 receptions. In his first season as the full-time TE, Witten posted 87 catches. There's a TON of value in those extra 20 receptions per year. If he is on the draft board as TE4 in your draft, take him without hesitation. "Fullback Fro" - Witten ended last year with 87 receptions. That’s good for a WR---phenomenal for a TE. I see no reasons why those numbers will change significantly with Drew Bledsoe under center. I could see him easily challenging for the TE1 this year, and getting him almost two rounds later than Gates or Gonzalez is well worth the gamble.
Cecil Lammey - Crumpler really came into his own in 2004. He can really move well and find the soft spot in the defense. He also provides Michael Vick with a great outlet receiver when Vick gets in a jam. Crumpler has soft hands and catches the ball away from his body. He is deceptively fast for a man his size and runs well after the catch. Vick is not a great passer, but what he can do is play dink and dunk football with Crumpler being on the receiving end of most of the dunks. His ADP is TE5, but he could easily be the TE3 at the end of the 2005 season. "diesel7982" - Michael Vick can’t find a WR, but he sure can find Alge Crumpler. He produced 774/6 last year despite missing 2 games. Alge has the upside to be a top two TE, and Vick’s reliance on him will prevent him from being a bust, even if he doesn’t produce at a top two rate. Expect at least another 800/6 from Crumpler.
Cecil Lammey - Miller is exactly what the Steelers were looking for. He is a playmaking TE that is too fast for LBs to cover and too big for a safety to play. Miller has good speed and sets up defenders well. Big Ben Roethlisberger will definitely use Miller and his playmaking abilities when in a rush. Miller creates good separation and works well in traffic. Heath is also a great red zone target and will help Pittsburgh ease the pain of the Plaxico Burress departure. Miller creates horrendous matchup problems whenever he’s on the field and will easily outplay his ADP ranking of TE13. Aaron Rudnicki - Miller is a very promising TE whose receiving skills are on par with a player like Todd Heap. The Steelers lost their #2 WR when Plaxico Burress signed with the Giants, and Miller should be able to help fill the void. He is a disciplined route runner with very reliable hands and should quickly become a favorite target for Ben Roethlisberger, especially in the red zone.
Mike Brown - Franks has been a top-10 tight end in three of the past four seasons. He’s been a TD machine in all but one year, and that was when Ahman Green was running wild all over the field. It’s not that Franks will greatly outperform his ADP; it’s that you can almost guarantee that he’ll finish higher than twelfth. He isn’t to be confused with a potential stud at the position, but he’ll almost certainly grab enough scores from Favre to warrant starting status in every league.
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