Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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| Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Undervalued WRs
Marc Levin - Every year, I place Driver in my undervalued list and every year he lives up to the billing. With a late 5th round ADP (and often available a full two rounds after Javon Walker) Driver is an incredible value play. He trailed Walker by just over 2 standard FF points per game in 2004, he was a top-12 fantasy receiver, and he has the full confidence of his quarterback. He actually had more targets in 2004 than Walker, and there is no reason to think that will change in 2005. Aaron Rudnicki - Many people probably don’t realize it, but Driver has finished as a top-10 fantasy WR in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Although Walker emerged as the WR1 in Green Bay last year, there are still plenty of passes to go around as Favre is coming off another 500+ attempt, 4000 yard season. Walker and Ahman Green will draw most of the defensive attention and that will create some favorable matchups for Driver. The Packers should also have one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year and I expect Favre to get involved in quite a few shootouts. Jason Wood - Donald Driver enjoyed a career year with 1208 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2004, finishing as the 10th best fantasy receiver. This was his second top-10 finish in the last three seasons and yet he’s being drafted as the 20th WR off the board? As long as Brett Favre is under center, there’s no reason to think Driver should fall off considerably and, at worst, should be drafted as a solid WR2 this year. David Yudkin - Driver has rankled as the #10 WR twice in three years and was injured in the middle. Javon Walker seems to be the darling of fantasy football owners, but Driver actually out produced Walker over the remainder of the season (and playoff game) after Walker went nuts against the Colts (11-200-3) in Week 3. The Packers lost 2 starters on the OL, Ahman Green may be on the decline, and Green Bay’s defense made very few improvements and will again have problems keeping the score down. Add it all up, and the Packers should again be airing it out and Driver should be a key beneficiary.
Maurile Tremblay - Kennison is the top WR in one of the league’s more explosive offenses, coming off a thousand yard season, but is going in the ninth round of the average twelve-team draft. It may be because, due to his age, people see him as having little upside potential – but I believe that view is incorrect. Kennison has always had great speed, and still does, but he has become a better wide receiver in the last few years as his patterns have become more disciplined and his hands more reliable. I believe he has the potential to outperform his 2004 numbers, perhaps significantly. Jason Wood - Kennison finished 18th among fantasy receivers last season and no worse the WR36 in the last three seasons. He’s steadily developed into Trent Green’s most reliable wide receiver and with Johnnie Morton’s release, only Tony Gonzalez is likely to be targeted more often. While Kennison isn’t likely to deliver top-20 numbers consistently, he’s almost assuredly going to produce better than his ADP suggests. David Yudkin - Eddie Kennison ranked as the 36th, 24th, and 18th best fantasy wide receiver the past three years—yet his ADP is in 35. The Chiefs offense and Kennison have improved each year since the arrival of head coach Dick Vermeil—and there is nothing that would suggest a sudden demise to the offense or Kennison’s production. The Chiefs have not signed any notable free agent wide receivers and did not invest heavy in the NFL draft at WR either. All signs point to another season as a great value pick in fantasy football drafts for the upcoming season.
Marc Levin - Rod Smith returned to the ranks of starting fantasy WR in 2004. He had two more targets per game than teammate Ashley Lelie and the same number of touchdowns with an increase to 14.5 yards per catch after stagnating at under 12 yards per catch the previous three years. He is clearly still the most important receiver in the Broncos’ pass attack and a favorite target of QB Jake Plummer. As the #33 receiver who I soften available in the 8th round, expect Smith to well exceed his draft spot and to outperform WRs drafted two rounds earlier. Aaron Rudnicki - Since becoming a starter with the Broncos in 1997, Rod Smith has never finished a season ranked lower than #29 among fantasy WRs. The retirement of Shannon Sharpe and trade of Clinton Portis in 2004 allowed him to become a bigger part of the offense, and he responded with his best season since 2001. Jake Plummer is coming off the best season of his career, in which he threw 27 TDs. The emergence of Ashley Lelie as one of the better deep threats in the league should provide Smith with more favorable matchups and fewer double teams. Jason Wood - Rod Smith isn’t getting any younger, but he’s coming off a 79 catch, 1144 yard, 7 touchdown season that saw him finish among the top 15 fantasy receivers. Smith is fanatical about his fitness, and the Broncos return with no material changes to their offensive personnel so it’s illogical to assume Smith is due for a precipitous falloff. While he may not be a sure bet to finish among the top 15, he’s hardly risky enough to justify his very low ADP.
Maurile Tremblay - Bruce is undervalued seemingly every year, probably because he plays in the shadow of Torry Holt. But in Saint Louis, there are plenty of balls to go around, and Bruce always manages to get his share. He caught 89 passes for 1292 yards last year, and has caught for more than 1,000 yards in five out of the last six seasons. Moreover, his yards per catch has hovered above 14 for the past two seasons, a sign that age has not yet slowed him. David Yudkin - No one passes more than the Rams do, and while some people may think that could be different in 2005, HC Mike Martz has shown no signs of changing. Bruce has ranked in the Top 18 for 6 consecutive seasons, and the only way he won’t do that again is if he gets hurt. After having some hamstring issues early in his career, Bruce has missed just one game in six years. Many have suggested that Bruce is getting long in the tooth, but he will be still be 32 on opening day (he’ll turn 33 during the season). In the past 25 years, there have been 21 WR that scored 150 fantasy points at age 33 or older—and that point total would likely place Bruce in the Top 20 yet again.
Aaron Rudnicki - Apart from his nightmare 2003 season in Tampa, Keyshawn has never finished a season ranked lower than #29 among fantasy wide receivers. Even though Drew Bledsoe’s best years are well behind him, he’s still a capable passer when given time and should provide an upgrade from Vinny Testaverde. Keyshawn remains one of the best possession WRs in the game, and should provide Bledsoe with a reliable target in the red zone. Look for him to put up numbers similar to what Eric Moulds did last year when he finished as the #26 ranked fantasy WR. Jason Wood - Keyshawn Johnson isn’t a fantasy stud anymore, but he’s also far better than his ADP suggests. In nine NFL seasons, Johnson has been a top 30 receiver in all but one season (the year he was suspended for six games by Tampa Bay). He’s the Cowboys lead receiver, durable, and sure to be targeted often by Drew Bledsoe. You’re virtually guaranteed a top 25-30 finish by Johnson with a tad of upside if Bledsoe catches lightning in a bottle as he did in his first season in Buffalo a few years ago. Yet you can roster Johnson several rounds later than his production warrants.
Chris Smith - Sure he is fast with blazing quickness. Everybody knows that in regards to Santana Moss. However most don’t realize that he runs pass routes that are as crisp as anybody else in the NFL and has the potential to not only exceed this low ADP but to blow it out of the water. Just two years ago he finished as the 8th best fantasy receiver and as the clear-cut # 1 guy in Washington this year he will get a lot of looks. He is down on many owners’ lists this year due to a difficult season last year but he was seriously injured much of last year and played through significant pain. He may emerge as the ‘Steal of the Draft’ in 2005. Maurile Tremblay - Moss showed his ability as a pass-receiver in 2003 when he finished as the #8 fantasy receiver in the league. He has blazing speed, the toughness to catch the ball in traffic, and dizzying open-field moves as a runner after the catch. He is coming off a very poor 2004 season, and for that reason fantasy owners are writing him off as a WR3 at best. They are overreacting. Moss will be the primary target in the Redskins’ revamped passing attack this year and should be a decent WR2.
Chris Smith - The Dolphins offensive attack had a brutal season last year in which they couldn’t do anything right. The quarterback play was spotty, the offensive line play was terrible and the running game was non-existent. Chris Chambers still managed to catch 69 passes for 898 yards and 7 touchdowns and he has now scored 18 times in the past two seasons. The Dolphins have a new offensive philosophy, a better offensive line thanks to the tutelage of new coach Hudson Houck and Chambers should return to a top twelve finish in 2005.
Andy Hicks - Larry Fitzgerald looks to be one of the most naturally gifted receivers in the NFL. Add in a solid work ethic and an all round team player, it’s hard not to wish him every success. As a fantasy force he managed 8 TDs from the disappointing Cardinals quarterbacks in his debut season. With the addition of Kurt Warner, a much improved running game and 2 excellent alternate receivers, Fitzgerald will be nice value for those considering a 2nd or 3rd receiver in the late 5th, early 6th round.
Aaron Rudnicki - Givens has shown steady improvement every year since entering the league in 2002. He showed that he could perform like a #1 WR when Branch was hurt early in 2004, putting up 37 receptions and 644 yards in the first half of the season. Givens was a restricted free agent this offseason and signed the Pats’ one year tender offer, so he will be headed for unrestricted free agency in 2006 and has extra motivation to have a great season. The team lost David Patten via free agency to the Redskins, so Givens should have little competition for the starting spot opposite Deion Branch and appears headed for a top-30 season.
Cecil Lammey - That’s the last time I’ll be typing that name! Housh is a great young receiver that is fitting in nicely with former college teammate Chad Johnson. His numbers have steadily increased every year and I expect this year to be big for him. He had some monster games (including a 171 performance against NE) near the end of last season. He also seemed to be building a great rapport with Carson Palmer. With Rudi Johnson keeping D’s focused on the run, and Chad Johnson commanding the coverage, Housh should have himself one helluva year.
Maurile Tremblay - In his third year as a pro, Lelie enjoyed his first 1,000-yard season in 2004 and finished as the #23 fantasy WR. For some reason, fantasy owners are apparently expecting him to regress in his fourth year: he is being drafted, on average, as the thirty-first WR. I, on the other hand, expect improvement. Lelie is already an outstanding deep threat, and as he gains experience he should become a more effective receiver on the intermediate patterns as well. I believe a 1,250-yard 2005 season is well within Lelie’s grasp.
Andy Hicks - The last time Justin McCareins played under Jets offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger was at Tennessee in 2003. He finished that season as the 22nd ranked wide receiver. Having worked with Chad Pennington for one year, McCareins could be a very nice late selection especially at his current value. He played well at times last season improving as the year went on. His big, physical frame will be a perfect complement to Laveranues Coles and with the Jets likely to open up the passing game you can do a lot worse then keep Justin McCareins as your WR3 or on your bench to pinch hit in a good match up.
Andy Hicks - Nobody wants to draft Eric Moulds on reputation this year, which is why for once he becomes nice value. Moulds has consistently been overvalued for years and has apparently burnt many a fantasy owner. This year offers the chance of redemption. Last year was a pretty ordinary effort on the passing side for Buffalo. The introduction of J P Losman may be seen as a negative, but considering the play of Drew Bledsoe over the last couple of years that might not be possible. Buffalo will continue to rely on their strong defense and the running game of Willis McGahee, but don’t count out Moulds yet. He has proven to be a multiple top 5 fantasy receiver and while those heights aren’t likely, he should surprise many this year.
Andy Hicks - Muhsin Muhammad finished last year as the Number 1 ranked receiver. While he will not come close to that in 2005, he is being vastly underrated heading into drafts for this season. With the likelihood of Rex Grossman missing the whole season, Muhammad could fall even further in drafts. He will clearly be the focal point in the Chicago passing game and a revamped offense should deliver much better results that last year. With Jeff Blake summonsed it is unlikely last years problems at Quarterback will be replicated. If you are in the position to draft Muhammad as your third receiver, grab him and don’t look back.
Cecil Lammey - The happiest person in the world when Randy Moss signed with the Raiders was Jerry Porter. Okay, that may be hyperbole, but he had to be pleased at getting such a playmaker for a teammate. What Moss will do is force the defensive coverage his way which means Porter will have lots of man on man coverage. Jerry has been somewhat inconsistent in his pro career, but has always flashed enormous potential. Now working with Kerry Collins in his 2nd year in that offense (plus the addition of Moss and LaMont Jordan) means that Porter has a great chance of fulfilling that potential.
David Yudkin - Detroit has a lot of weapons and many are assuming that Roy Williams will be the primary target this year. However, we have no idea if that will be how it plays out. If the projected ratio of production is altered even a little bit, Rogers will rank higher than the WR37. With Mike Williams not playing in any league at any level last season (with the exception of Madden football), Rogers should be on the field the majority of the time. And if Rogers breaks his collarbone again, that likely would be a league record, and I doubt Rogers has a record breaking season in him this year.
Chris Smith - Stallworth had 58 receptions a year ago and has now scored 16 touchdowns in his first 40 games. He is coming into his own as a receiver and will often play in the slot this year where he is most comfortable. He could climb into the top twenty this season.
Chris Smith - Toomer has finished as at least the 26th best fantasy receiver in five of the last six years. Sure the wheels fell off a year ago thanks to poor quarterbacking from rookie Eli Manning and injury woes but Toomer is an absolute steal with the 143rd overall pick. He should approach 70+ receptions and 1,000+ yards.
Mark Wimer - Walker was awesome last year, and he missed exactly zero reps with Brett Favre during his mini-camp holdout. Favre spent the off-season rededicating himself to playing football, and Walker figures to benefit the most from Favre’s rediscovered zeal. The Packers’ D is not very good – I expect Favre, Walker and company to be in a lot of “shootouts” this year. Walker is a value even at his current lofty status as the #28 pick overall. I project him as the 15th best overall player this season.
Mike Anderson - Depending on the implications of Charles Rogers breaking his collar bone for two straight seasons, Mike Williams is either the #2 WR on a team with limitless weapons and a 3 time Pro-Bowl QB, or perhaps the best slot receiver in the game, challenging Brandon Stokley for the title. At 6’5” 229 Lbs, Williams would easily create mismatches at the slot, and has Pro-Bowl Talent. Should Rogers not be able to go, Williams will step into an outside receiver role, and challenge for ROY. Either way, with an average draft position of 11.10, he is going off the board a minimum of 4 rounds behind where he will perform.
Cecil Lammey - That’s that rookie. Well, he was a rookie last year. This year Roy will be the leading receiver on a high powered offense. That means good things for Roy owners. Williams has great concentration and makes the circus catch look like second nature. He also has strong hands and great leaping ability, which make him a good option in the red zone. He also shaved the “lamb chop” sideburns, which will make him more aerodynamic and thus faster. Roy will benefit from better QB play as well. Joey Harrington is playing better so far in the preseason and Jeff Garcia is licking his chops in anticipation of commanding this offense.
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