Jason Wood - The Stategist

As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

A Look At Cumulative Value

This week an interesting discussion arose on our message board. Someone asked about the value of the 1st overall pick in 2006 redraft leagues; specifically asking how much you would be willing to give up for the right to pick LaDainian Tomlinson. As one might expect, a great many people chimed in that they would be willing to give up a small king's ransom for the chance to grab Tomlinson first overall. While I don't have an issue with taking Tomlinson 1st overall next year [presuming he's healthy of course], I DID take issue with how overwhelming people perceived the value of the 1st overall pick. My counter was…"I wouldn't give up much because I bet I could acquire the 2nd overall pick for much less and come away with near equivalent value in Shaun Alexander."

Some were surprised by this and specifically, someone commented that "he hasn't been at the level of LT for the same number of years."

This struck me as noteworthy for two reasons. 1) Alexander and Tomlinson have both been full time starters since the beginning of the 2001 season, and 2) Alexander has been exceptionally productive over that span.

In fact, here are the cumulative numbers of both backs from 2001-2005 [Week 13]

L. Tomlinson - 9,431 yards rushing/receiving & 78 TDs [rush/rec]
S. Alexander - 8,332 yards rushing/receiving & 92 TDs [rush/rec]

Using conventional scoring [1 pt per 10 yards rush/rec, 6 pts per rush/rec TD]…this equates to:

L. Tomlinson - 1,411.1 fantasy points
S. Alexander - 1,385.2 fantasy points

While Tomlinson HAS been the better player these last five years statistically, Alexander is much closer than he's given credit for. In fact, Tomlinson has only scored 1.9% more fantasy points in the last FIVE seasons…less than 0.5% differential on an annualized basis.

For fun [and because the Data Dominator does the heavy lifting], this got me wondering about the best players cumulatively over the last few seasons. Using the Data Dominator, we can easily look back to the 2002 season [i.e., almost four years]…let's take a look at the top performers at each position, shall we?

Quarterback (QB) - Cumulative Fantasy Points [2002-2005]

Rk	Quarterback	PassYds	PaTDs	INTs	Rush	RuYds	RuTDs	FanPts
1	Peyton Manning	15902	130	47	112	244	2	1304.3
2	Daunte Culpepper	13552	86	57	277	1575	17	1224.1
3	Trent Green	15203	90	51	104	447	2	1125.9
4	Aaron Brooks	13556	83	56	200	880	10	1101.8
5	Tom Brady	14335	97	50	138	256	2	1092.4
6	Brett Favre	14032	107	75	72	171	0	1071.7
7	Donovan McNabb	11896	80	34	196	1096	13	1067.7
8	Matt Hasselbeck	12962	78	49	129	535	5	994.6
9	Jake Plummer	11710	75	54	169	818	7	955.5
10	Drew Bledsoe	12805	71	54	93	177	6	924.0
11	Kerry Collins	13770	69	61	87	117	1	921.2
12	Marc Bulger	11934	71	51	66	179	8	896.0
13	Steve McNair	10506	68	40	162	800	9	891.7
14	Drew Brees	11323	75	49	120	307	3	877.8
15	Michael Vick	7626	46	32	344	2408	16	870.1
16	David Carr	10024	45	51	198	1013	6	767.5
17	Jeff Garcia	8457	50	35	167	883	13	754.8
18	Jake Delhomme	9795	66	44	83	141	2	735.9
19	Joey Harrington	9678	56	61	105	346	0	682.3
20	Chad Pennington	8440	52	31	88	240	5	653.0
21	Brad Johnson	8619	59	32	59	136	0	648.6
22	Byron Leftwich	7848	43	32	92	323	6	600.7
23	Jon Kitna	7373	46	34	70	208	4	563.5
24	Brian Griese	7793	47	40	81	152	1	558.9
25	Mark Brunell	6912	42	16	94	389	1	542.5
26	Rich Gannon	6476	35	16	61	198	3	485.6
27	Tommy Maddox	6936	41	39	45	100	0	481.8
28	Carson Palmer	6044	44	25	45	68	2	472.0
29	Jay Fiedler	5443	33	30	73	259	6	436.1
30	Vinny Testaverde	6114	26	31	32	79	3	404.6
31	Patrick Ramsey	5532	33	29	40	83	2	399.9
32	Quincy Carter	5223	27	30	104	373	2	388.5
33	Kurt Warner	6191	19	23	28	88	1	377.4
34	Josh McCown	4824	22	26	81	384	3	359.6
35	Ben Roethlisberger	4323	32	18	75	203	2	358.5
36	Jeff Blake	4418	26	27	72	292	3	345.1
37	Kyle Boller	4662	23	27	94	287	1	332.8
38	Kelly Holcomb	4131	31	24	28	9	0	307.5
39	Tim Couch	4156	25	24	32	103	1	299.8
40	Eli Manning	3855	26	21	25	102	0	286.0

Thoughts…

Peyton Manning is top the rankings and no one is surprised
Daunte Culpepper, a fantasy machine, remains in the 2nd spot despite a horrible start to 2005 and a season-ending injury mid-season
Trent Green is the surprising #3 further adding to his reputation as fantasy football's least appreciated passer
Aaron Brooks 4th place ranking epitomizes the notion that fantasy value is NOT equivalent to NFL value
This is probably the only time you'll ever see Joey Harrington listed above Carson Palmer and Eli Manning in any fantasy-related list again

Running Back (RB) - Cumulative Fantasy Points [2002-2005]

Rk	Running Back	Rush	RuYds	RuTD	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	FanPts
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	1282	5827	61	273	1994	8	1214.7
2	Shaun Alexander	1255	5700	68	134	975	8	1123.5
3	Priest Holmes	939	4338	68	181	1730	5	1044.8
4	Tiki Barber	1154	5356	32	222	1964	4	945.0
5	Clinton Portis	1156	5495	41	135	1094	4	932.7
6	Edgerrin James	1217	5117	34	191	1368	2	863.5
7	Ahman Green	974	4549	29	166	1181	8	800.0
8	Jamal Lewis	1131	5029	29	108	905	2	779.4
9	Deuce McAllister	1034	4436	33	166	1196	3	778.2
10	Curtis Martin	1169	4807	26	155	979	2	746.6
11	Fred Taylor	1034	4708	18	142	1178	2	707.6
12	Warrick Dunn	846	3870	22	139	1174	5	666.4
13	Corey Dillon	938	3997	29	83	609	1	638.6
14	Ricky Williams	861	3565	28	112	801	2	615.6
15	Domanick Davis	745	3056	23	147	1226	4	588.2
16	Rudi Johnson	847	3559	30	58	322	0	568.1
17	Brian Westbrook	498	2227	13	179	1738	14	563.8
18	Marshall Faulk	644	2699	21	202	1322	5	556.1
19	Travis Henry	802	3337	23	87	564	2	539.1
20	Michael Pittman	672	2743	9	199	1684	6	529.7
21	Kevan Barlow	751	3067	20	113	866	2	523.3
22	Thomas Jones	751	3095	18	120	836	0	500.1
23	Stephen Davis	722	2882	27	44	378	1	493.0
24	Jerome Bettis	749	2601	32	30	229	0	479.5
25	Duce Staley	594	2463	12	98	1016	5	449.9
26	Eddie George	782	2613	21	67	501	2	449.4
27	Antowain Smith	686	2621	15	74	533	2	417.4
28	T.J. Duckett	514	2124	28	27	218	0	401.2
29	Charlie Garner	331	1626	10	148	1394	5	391.0
30	Lamont Jordan	455	1835	18	104	866	2	389.1
31	Reuben Droughns	527	2298	9	77	681	5	381.9
32	Michael Bennett	500	2278	8	88	778	4	377.6
33	Moe Williams	298	1323	19	121	1125	3	376.8
34	Larry Johnson	360	1763	21	45	509	2	365.2
35	Emmitt Smith	605	2185	16	45	303	0	348.9
36	Willis McGahee	547	2160	17	41	306	0	348.6
37	Marcel Shipp	526	1980	6	97	817	3	332.7
38	Anthony Thomas	608	2201	13	52	336	0	330.7
39	Chris Brown	457	2016	11	51	486	2	328.2
40	Garrison Hearst	413	1821	12	75	548	2	319.9
41	Amos Zereoue	442	1628	9	121	940	0	310.8
42	Mike Anderson	354	1493	15	45	408	5	309.1
43	Kevin Faulk	308	1223	4	128	1224	4	290.7
44	William Green	562	2092	9	45	277	0	289.9
45	Steven Jackson	337	1542	11	59	488	2	281.0
46	Mike Alstott	266	921	15	91	665	2	260.6
47	Kevin Jones	400	1656	10	46	278	1	259.4
48	Chester Taylor	333	1462	4	95	658	3	252.0
49	Julius Jones	381	1462	10	45	304	0	236.6
50	Tyrone Wheatley	352	1421	10	39	269	0	229.0

Thoughts…

This list has a precipitous drop-off point fairly quickly, emphasizing how uncommon it is for RBs of any caliber to maintain a high level of performance beyond a few year span
Tomlinson, Alexander and Holmes shouldn't be surprising…but I would bet very few people would've named Tiki Barber as the 4th most productive RB over the last four seasons
This is probably the only time you'll ever see Travis Henry listed above Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee and Steven Jackson in any fantasy-related list again

Wide Receiver (WR) - Cumulative Fantasy Points [2002-2005]

Rk	Name	Recs	RecYd	RecTD	FanPts
1	Marvin Harrison	388	4965	46	762.8
2	Torry Holt	377	5385	33	727.8
3	Randy Moss	310	4514	42	701.8
4	Terrell Owens	304	4365	42	694.9
5	Chad Johnson	325	4934	31	676.1
6	Hines Ward	343	4292	35	658.0
7	Joe Horn	297	4199	29	590.1
8	Derrick Mason	332	4216	22	547.4
9	Donald Driver	273	3800	25	534.8
10	Reggie Wayne	260	3623	28	522.9
11	Chris Chambers	246	3438	26	516.9
12	Rod Smith	305	3819	20	509.2
13	Muhsin Muhammad	258	3633	25	507.6
14	Plaxico Burress	237	3859	22	505.2
15	Santana Moss	216	3494	25	503.8
16	Jimmy Smith	255	3739	21	493.1
17	Isaac Bruce	259	3712	21	490.0
18	Laveranues Coles	319	4039	14	486.4
19	Eddie Kennison	222	3654	19	484.4
20	Darrell Jackson	246	3589	22	483.2
21	Eric Moulds	305	3592	19	468.8
22	Amani Toomer	239	3623	18	462.0
23	Keyshawn Johnson	246	3268	20	440.4
24	Steve Smith	230	3231	20	436.7
25	Joey Galloway	191	3071	21	431.7
26	Keenan McCardell	224	2907	22	416.5
27	Jerry Porter	199	2817	23	415.1
28	Drew Bennett	188	2780	18	390.2
29	Donte Stallworth	177	2536	22	385.8
30	Anquan Boldin	225	2988	14	383.6
31	Javon Walker	156	2419	22	367.1
32	Antonio Bryant	188	2799	15	366.2
33	Koren Robinson	190	2923	12	364.0
34	Ashley Lelie	157	2798	12	360.2
35	Marty Booker	222	2926	12	359.7
36	Peerless Price	209	2756	15	357.2
37	Terry Glenn	179	2808	14	357.0
38	Rod Gardner	190	2344	19	349.5
39	Dennis Northcutt	181	2447	11	334.3
40	Deion Branch	200	2551	13	329.2
41	Justin McCareins	152	2418	14	324.2
42	Andre Johnson	190	2606	11	321.8
43	Travis Taylor	172	2382	11	315.4
44	Jerry Rice	185	2501	12	315.1
45	Marcus Robinson	126	1784	22	307.4
46	Brandon Stokley	148	2036	16	300.9
47	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	170	2213	10	297.6
48	Johnnie Morton	154	2192	8	290.9
49	Larry Fitzgerald	140	1908	15	286.3
50	Bobby Engram	189	2318	9	280.8

Thoughts…

Derrick Mason (7th) and Chris Chambers (11th) are mild surprises among the top 12; a testament to their health and consistency more than their ability to perform at truly elite levels in any given season
Marvin Harrison has been a man among boys, staying healthy and out of trouble unlike other elite counterparts Terrell Owens and Randy Moss
Eddie Kennison at 19th makes a case for his being the most underappreciated fantasy receiver of the new millennium
This is probably the only time you'll ever see Dennis Northcutt listed above Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in any fantasy-related list again

Tight End (TE) - Cumulative Fantasy Points [2002-2005]

Rk	Name	Recs	RecYd	RecTD	FanPts
1	Tony Gonzalez	294	3586	26	510.1
2	Jeremy Shockey	233	2828	17	376.8
3	Antonio Gates	168	2232	23	361.2
4	Alge Crumpler	181	2466	19	356.6
5	Todd Heap	207	2459	16	331.8
6	Randy McMichael	207	2325	15	318.3
7	Marcus Pollard	142	1693	17	268.3
8	Jason Witten	172	1891	10	246.1
9	Bubba Franks	143	1251	19	241.7
10	Shannon Sharpe	123	1456	11	207.6
11	Daniel Graham	98	1153	15	205.3
12	L.J. Smith	114	1273	9	180.3
13	Erron Kinney	133	1285	8	176.5
14	Dallas Clark	83	1149	9	167.9
15	Jermaine Wiggins	142	1329	6	165.9
16	Itula Mili	112	1240	7	162.0
17	Freddie Jones	144	1301	6	157.1
18	Jerramy Stevens	96	1107	8	156.7
19	Billy Miller	108	1146	7	153.6
20	Chris Cooley	91	943	9	148.3
21	Christian Fauria	74	757	12	147.7
22	Doug Jolley	107	1181	5	147.1
23	Boo Williams	87	941	9	146.1
24	Matt Schobel	83	866	9	139.6
25	Ernie Conwell	83	976	6	138.6
26	Chad Lewis	97	997	7	137.7
27	Steve Heiden	99	879	8	134.9
28	Anthony Becht	94	775	10	134.5
29	Mark Campbell	91	846	9	133.6
30	Kyle Brady	97	943	7	131.3
31	Jim Kleinsasser	101	949	5	127.1
32	Ken Dilger	95	918	6	125.8
33	Eric Johnson	118	1146	2	125.6
34	Desmond Clark	93	955	5	123.5
35	Stephen Alexander	101	1002	3	115.2
36	Jeb Putzier	71	1003	2	111.3
37	Kris Mangum	82	820	5	109.0
38	Mikhael Ricks	65	780	5	103.0
39	Chris Baker	52	602	5	90.2
40	Brandon Manumaleuna	62	616	5	88.8

Thoughts…

Gonzo is the runaway favorite, no surprise
Shockey, Gates and Heap are all top 5 despite missing time over the 4-year span [in Gates' case due to not yet being a starter]
Shannon Sharpe's top 10 position despite retirement speaks to his HOF value AND the relative ineptitude at the position despite the resurgence in recent years at the top of the group

Have a Great Week!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

1 point per 25 yards passing
1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
4 points per passing TD
6 points per rushing or receiving TD
-1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues