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The Stategist


As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…


Something's got to give???…

Last year was a banner season for passers. A combination of an ongoing trend toward wide open passing combined with renewed emphasis on illegal downfield contact led to record passing numbers. Specifically,

  • Passing Yards: Five (5) QBs threw for at least 4,000 yards (tied for a single season record) and Twelve (12) QBs threw for at least 3,500 yards (a new record)
  • Passing TDs: Four (4) QBs threw for at least 30+ TDs (not to mention Peyton Manning setting the single season record), Nine (9) QBs threw for at least 25 TDs (a new record), and Fifteen (15) QBs threw for 20 or more TDs.

It's not unreasonable to expect the continued proliferation of passing, usually these trends run in multi-year cycles, but through the first four weeks of the season, QBs are at a historically blistering pace, one which seems hard to believe will continue.

Consider, through four weeks:

  • Ten (10) QBs are on pace for 4,000-yard passing seasons, including two QBs (Donovan McNabb and Marc Bulger) who are on pace for 5,000 yards
  • Sixteen (16) QBs are on pace for 3,500-yard passing seasons, which would be a new NFL record
Quarterback
Team
TDs thru Wk 4
Proj '05 TDs
Donovan McNabb
Phi
1333
5332
Marc Bulger
StL
1311
5244
Tom Brady
NE
1172
4688
Trent Dilfer
Cle
822
4384
Kerry Collins
Oak
1091
4364
Drew Bledsoe
Dal
1062
4248
Carson Palmer
Cin
1061
4244
Brett Favre
GB
1041
4164
Daunte Culpepper
Min
1020
4080
Matt Hasselbeck
Sea
1011
4044
Eli Manning
NYG
985
3940
Aaron Brooks
NO
938
3752
Kurt Warner
Ari
696
3712
Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
688
3669
Steve McNair
Ten
895
3580
Trent Green
KC
879
3516
Peyton Manning
Ind
868
3472
Byron Leftwich
Jac
866
3464
Jake Delhomme
Car
857
3428
Gus Frerotte
Mia
623
3323
Drew Brees
SD
823
3292
Brian Griese
TB
793
3172
Jake Plummer
Den
787
3148
Mark Brunell
Was
587
3131
Anthony Wright
Bal
570
3040
  • Six (6) QBs are on pace for 30+ TD seasons , a record pace
  • Eighteen (18) QBs are on pace for 20+ TD seasons, a record pace
Quarterback
Team
TDs thru Wk 4
Proj '05 TDs
Donovan McNabb
Phi
11
44
Carson Palmer
Cin
9
36
Brett Favre
GB
9
36
Eli Manning
NYG
9
36
Marc Bulger
StL
8
32
Ben Roethlisberger
Pit
6
32
Drew Bledsoe
Dal
7
28
Gus Frerotte
Mia
5
27
Kerry Collins
Oak
6
24
Peyton Manning
Ind
6
24
Jake Delhomme
Car
6
24
Drew Brees
SD
6
24
Brian Griese
TB
6
24
Trent Dilfer
Cle
4
21
Mark Brunell
Was
4
21
Matt Hasselbeck
Sea
5
20
Steve McNair
Ten
5
20
Tim Rattay
SF
5
20

Have a Great Week!


Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

  • 1 point per 25 yards passing
  • 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
  • 4 points per passing TD
  • 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
  • -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me (wood@footballguys.com) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues

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