Jason Wood - The Stategist

As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

L. Tomlinson and P. Manning are OK, but give me Patrick Pass and Matt Schaub…

Fantasy Points per Touch: The Quarterbacks (QBs)

A recent discussion on our message boards regarding Ben Roethlisberger and his place among the NFL's QB hierarchy lead to someone pointing out that Big Ben is having a remarkable season when you consider how few "touches" he gets per game. While Donovan McNabb is dropping back to pass 40+ times a game, Big Ben is lucky to get 20 attempts.

It's a compelling argument for Big Ben's supporters. Consider:

Using FBG scoring, Roethlisberger is the 19th ranked fantasy QB through Week Seven with 94.6 fantasy points
However, he's only taken 100 pass attempts and run the ball 12 times (for a grand total of 112 touches)
In terms of fantasy points per touch, Big Ben is producing 0.84 fantasy points; which is tops in the league. Think of this as a measure of offensive fantasy efficiency.

Quarterbacks (QBs): Fantasy Points Per Touch (Min: 20 Touches)

Rank	Name	Team	FanPoints	Touches	FPperT
1	Roethlisberger,Ben	PIT	94.5	112	0.84
2	Schaub,Matt	ATL	34.8	55	0.63
3	Bledsoe,Drew	DAL	142.1	239	0.59
4	Brunell,Mark	WAS	127.4	215	0.59
5	Palmer,Carson	CIN	145.2	251	0.58
6	Manning,Eli	NYG	116.8	204	0.57
7	Favre,Brett	GB	131.2	230	0.57
8	Vick,Michael	ATL	98.4	175	0.56
9	Delhomme,Jake	CAR	100.4	180	0.56
10	Bulger,Marc	STL	126.6	231	0.55
11	Manning,Peyton	IND	118.2	219	0.54
12	Brees,Drew	SD	110.0	206	0.53
13	Brady,Tom	NE	120.7	235	0.51
14	Hasselbeck,Matt	SEA	125.6	254	0.49
15	Collins,Kerry	OAK	109.9	224	0.49
16	McNabb,Donovan	PHI	131.4	268	0.49
17	Brooks,Aaron	NO	118.9	245	0.49
18	Leftwich,Byron	JAX	91.9	192	0.48
19	Rattay,Tim	SF	49.2	104	0.47
20	Holcomb,Kelly	BUF	45.3	97	0.47
21	Plummer,Jake	DEN	106.5	231	0.46
22	Carr,David	HOU	78.7	171	0.46
23	Testaverde,Vinny	NYJ	31.6	69	0.46
24	McNair,Steve	TEN	102.0	223	0.46
25	Culpepper,Daunte	MIN	107.1	235	0.46
26	McCown,Josh	ARI	74.7	166	0.45
27	Garcia,Jeff	DET	16.6	38	0.44
28	Griese,Brian	TB	79.0	187	0.42
29	Green,Trent	KC	83.2	200	0.42
30	Dilfer,Trent	CLE	81.1	196	0.41
31	Pennington,Chad	NYJ	34.2	89	0.38
32	Frerotte,Gus	MIA	85.5	224	0.38
33	Warner,Kurt	ARI	39.2	106	0.37
34	Wright,Anthony	BAL	74.9	205	0.37
35	Volek,Billy	TEN	12.2	34	0.36
36	Martin,Jamie	STL	18.4	54	0.34
37	Maddox,Tommy	PIT	10.2	31	0.33
38	Harrington,Joey	DET	51.3	157	0.33
39	Orton,Kyle	CHI	55.6	178	0.31
40	Losman,J.P.	BUF	33.9	114	0.30

Some observations:

Atlanta backup QB Matt Schaub showed excellent fantasy productivity while playing in place of the injured Michael Vick; remember this in a year or two when Schaub tests the free agent market and gets a chance to start (it will happen)
For as God awful as David Carr has been this year, he's been more productive on a per touch basis than Steve McNair, Trent Green and Daunte Culpepper to name a few. This may lend credence to the notion that Carr does have a future as an NFL signal caller, and deserves a chance to play behind a "good" offensive line for a change
The vaunted Dennis Green passing attack in Arizona really isn't operating at a high level no matter which QB is under center. That said, McCown has been markedly better than Kurt Warner and probably deserves to hold onto the job
Although Kelly Holcomb hasn't set the fantasy world on fire, his job is probably safe particularly when you consider that J.P. Losman is the worst performing QB on this list
While Carson Palmer is benefiting from a large amount of touches, he's also operating at an extremely high level per touch; giving credence to the notion that he can finish the year at or near the top of the fantasy rankings
In fantasy leagues, rushing QBs usually have a decided advantage because of the relative value of rushing yards versus passing yards. Yet, through Week Seven, that doesn't appear to be the case this year as Mike Vick is the only mobile QB among our top 10 in terms of "per touch efficiency"

Fantasy Points per Touch: Running Backs (RBs)

So LaDainian Tomlinson is lighting the world on fire, sitting atop the fantasy rankings in no small part to his 10 rushing TDs, 1 receiving TD and oh yes, his two PASSING TDs. So obviously he's atop our list of most productive fantasy RBs on a "per touch" basis, right? Think again…that honor belongs to Patriots H-Back Patrick Pass…

Running Backs (RBs): Fantasy Points Per Touch (Min: 20 Touches)

Rank	Name	Team	FanPoints	Touches	FPperT
1	Pass,Patrick	NE	39.3	34	1.16
2	Alexander,Shaun	SEA	152.8	159	0.96
3	Duckett,T.J.	ATL	42.3	45	0.94
4	Pittman,Michael	TB	54.0	58	0.93
5	Tomlinson,LaDainian	SD	160.9	174	0.92
6	Bell,Tatum	DEN	68.0	74	0.92
7	Crockett,Zack	OAK	17.6	20	0.88
8	Rhodes,Dominic	IND	24.3	28	0.87
9	Johnson,Larry	KC	62.3	72	0.87
10	Westbrook,Brian	PHI	86.3	100	0.86
11	Holmes,Priest	KC	101.5	123	0.83
12	Bryson,Shawn	DET	25.1	31	0.81
13	Jackson,Steven	STL	109.7	137	0.80
14	Morris,Maurice	SEA	18.4	23	0.80
15	James,Edgerrin	IND	145.3	182	0.80
16	Jordan,Lamont	OAK	115.7	145	0.80
17	Faulk,Marshall	STL	29.5	39	0.76
18	Barber,Tiki	NYG	89.8	120	0.75
19	Davis,Stephen	CAR	77.5	107	0.72
20	Gore,Frank	SF	28.6	40	0.72
21	Jones,Thomas	CHI	104.8	147	0.71
22	Davenport,Najeh	GB	22.8	32	0.71
23	Foster,DeShaun	CAR	37.3	53	0.70
24	Dillon,Corey	NE	71.8	103	0.70
25	Brown,Ronnie	MIA	72.0	106	0.68
26	Jones,Greg	JAX	22.3	33	0.68
27	Parker,Willie	PIT	77.5	116	0.67
28	Pinner,Artose	DET	19.7	30	0.66
29	Perry,Chris	CIN	43.8	67	0.65
30	Gordon,Lamar	PHI	18.3	28	0.65
31	Smith,Antowain	NO	35.8	56	0.64
32	Dunn,Warrick	ATL	90.8	144	0.63
33	Portis,Clinton	WAS	85.7	136	0.63
34	Anderson,Mike	DEN	74.2	120	0.62
35	Fisher,Tony	GB	17.2	28	0.61
36	Taylor,Chester	BAL	32.3	53	0.61
37	Barlow,Kevan	SF	55.4	93	0.60
38	Moore,Mewelde	MIN	53.4	90	0.59
39	McGahee,Willis	BUF	99.0	168	0.59
40	Davis,Domanick	HOU	78.7	134	0.59
41	McAllister,Deuce	NO	63.2	110	0.57
42	Williams,Carnell	TB	57.3	102	0.56
43	Brown,Chris	TEN	61.7	110	0.56
44	Payton,Jarrett	TEN	15.4	28	0.55
45	Neal,Lorenzo	SD	11.4	21	0.54
46	Bettis,Jerome	PIT	19.0	35	0.54
47	Jones,Julius	DAL	66.9	124	0.54
48	Haynes,Verron	PIT	19.9	37	0.54
49	Faulk,Kevin	NE	14.3	27	0.53
50	Williams,Shaud	BUF	15.3	30	0.51
51	Martin,Curtis	NYJ	77.5	152	0.51
52	Johnson,Rudi	CIN	75.3	150	0.50
53	Pearman,Alvin	JAX	16.5	34	0.49
54	Betts,Ladell	WAS	21.9	46	0.48
55	Jones,Kevin	DET	50.7	111	0.46
56	Taylor,Fred	JAX	50.6	111	0.46
57	Ayanbadejo,Obafemi	ARI	10.3	23	0.45
58	Droughns,Reuben	CLE	54.2	122	0.44
59	Bennett,Michael	MIN	11.6	27	0.43
60	Stecker,Aaron	NO	15.0	35	0.43
61	Turner,Michael	SD	11.9	28	0.43
62	Green,Ahman	GB	40.2	96	0.42
63	Lewis,Jamal	BAL	51.6	124	0.42
64	Thompson,Tyson	DAL	17.7	43	0.41
65	Barber,Marion	DAL	14.8	38	0.39
66	Shipp,Marcel	ARI	32.9	91	0.36
67	Henry,Travis	TEN	11.7	34	0.34
68	Arrington,J.J.	ARI	11.6	37	0.31
69	Graham,Earnest	TB	8.3	28	0.30
70	Benson,Cedric	CHI	7.3	29	0.25

Some observations:

RBs that have a high TD per touch ratio skew this chart considerably, so goal line specialists including Zack Crockett and T.J. Duckett appear much higher on this list than you might otherwise expect. Of course, this is a measure of FANTASY efficiency and nothing is more potent than a carry or catch that yields a TD
Michael Pittman has been far more productive on a per touch basis than Cadillac Williams, a byproduct of his receiving prowess
If Tatum Bell can stay healthy and hold onto the ball, it sure looks like he's the better option than Mike Anderson
Edgerrin James sits at 15th on a per touch basis, solid to be sure…but Dominic Rhodes is in the top ten, maybe he'll get a job as a starter somewhere in the future
As productive as Priest Holmes remains, one can understand why Larry Johnson continues to get a lot of work too
Ahman Green may be the Packers workhorse, but both backups (Davenport and Fisher) have been more productive when given their chances; don't forget that when deciding whether to bid for Tony Fisher this week
Owners of Willie Parker, Willis McGahee, Caddy Williams and Rudi Johnson (to name a few) should be very glad their players get a ton of touches, because they're not that productive on a per touch basis

Final Thoughts

We'll look at wide receivers and tight ends another week. In the meantime, I would be curious to hear your thoughts on this metric and ways we might streamline the formula to better measure efficiency from a fantasy perspective.

Have a Great Week!

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

1 point per 25 yards passing
1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
4 points per passing TD
6 points per rushing or receiving TD
-1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues