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The Life of a Stud (2006 Edition)
Posted 7/7 by Mike Herman, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

What does the career path of a fantasy football stud look like? When does studliness begin, and when does it end? Are there any not-so-stud-like gaps in the middle? The same types of questions surface every year about the current batch of top fantasy players. A wide variety of factors will determine the answer for each individual player. What follows is a graphic comparison of numerous studs' careers, in hopes of finding any trends or parallels.

What exactly is a fantasy stud? That question could have numerous answers, and could be an entire article in and of itself. For the purpose of this study, I started by looking at all players who had a year end fantasy rank in the top five, going back to 1980. To make the final cut, they had to have an additional top five finish, or the top five plus two top tens. Some quality players probably missed the cut. Some two-year-wonders that may not belong probably made the list, however a player coming off of two strong years will be a candidate for a top pick in fantasy drafts, and thus worth studying.

Following are the results for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, showing the fantasy rank for each year of their NFL career. Top five finishes are highlighted in yellow while top tens are in green. Active players and their upcoming year (2006) are shown in blue.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Jeff Blake
71
19
4
4
22
44
11
24
85
27
22
58
69
Kurt Warner
69
1
14
1
40
53
29
22
Donovan McNabb
37
5
8
13
13
3
20
Ken O'Brien
33
3
5
12
18
16
19
10
41
43
Aaron Brooks
28
8
5
3
8
16
Jeff Garcia
18
2
2
10
12
27
43
Daunte Culpepper
73
1
15
1
1
1
33
Trent Green
76
7
23
14
8
3
4
8
Drew Bledsoe
16
4
20
6
6
11
8
13
44
5
21
19
6
Jim Kelly
4
9
11
9
10
2
5
7
11
13
16
Boomer Esiason
43
6
2
8
4
6
9
14
28
6
15
27
29
27
Tom Brady
72
21
9
11
10
2
Doug Williams
28
17
4
4
7
71
27
17
46
Mark Brunell
56
14
3
8
15
13
7
12
21
47
33
14
Tommy Kramer
36
60
8
12
5
4
43
27
12
10
41
34
35
67
Neil Lomax
29
20
9
2
11
17
4
6
Steve McNair
42
33
5
4
12
15
7
7
7
32
15
Jim Everett
34
21
2
3
4
12
6
27
8
8
23
51
Ken Anderson
28
16
4
1
1
7
10
18
15
30
2
3
24
24
54
61
Randall Cunningham
44
19
1
1
2
1
63
3
37
9
40
43
3
38
39
39
Ron Jaworski
49
41
48
5
13
13
5
13
11
8
15
9
31
58
49
Matt Hasselbeck
66
59
30
19
4
13
5
Scott Mitchell
68
68
24
27
2
9
10
56
63
40
87
Jeff George
23
19
26
19
7
7
47
3
38
14
37
60
Phil Simms
23
23
22
61
7
7
8
13
5
15
20
34
35
14
Danny White
51
64
47
45
8
12
5
5
30
10
29
14
54
Brian Sipe
30
42
12
25
8
1
2
10
29
6
Dave Krieg
66
31
34
22
3
4
11
10
21
12
14
23
10
35
24
17
27
79
66
Steve Bartkowski
17
39
32
16
18
3
3
14
7
21
40
42
Joe Theismann
47
58
29
22
11
9
15
7
6
3
6
25
Dan Fouts
26
17
24
11
29
7
4
1
1
1
14
11
8
16
16
Jeff Hostetler
69
68
55
41
34
21
21
3
10
30
8
42
Vinny Testaverde
33
16
14
11
24
14
21
16
19
2
16
5
65
12
25
48
33
16
44
Rich Gannon
74
63
18
15
19
39
58
40
31
18
3
4
4
2
37
45
 
Peyton Manning
9
4
3
3
4
2
2
3
Steve Young
35
14
30
36
31
38
7
1
1
1
9
10
9
1
54
Warren Moon
12
18
12
7
13
5
2
1
13
4
6
3
34
7
27
70
53
Joe Montana
52
26
8
2
2
4
1
23
2
9
4
3
56
18
12
John Elway
27
13
5
6
3
8
10
6
5
17
2
5
5
5
4
13
Brett Favre
73
7
5
2
1
1
1
2
6
9
5
11
10
6
13
Dan Marino
12
1
2
1
5
3
7
8
3
2
32
3
11
14
11
10
24

The upper 34 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of seven players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the quarterback "picture" above:

  1. Let's start with who's not on the list. Fifteen players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first five on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to join.

    Michael Vick Kordell Stewart Troy Aikman
    Jake Plummer Mark Rypien Tony Eason
    Brad Johnson Timm Rosenbach Lynn Dickey
    Carson Palmer Don Majkowski Billy Kenney
    Eli Manning Steve Beuerlein Jay Schroeder

  2. Four out of the 41 players were/are two-year wonders. Jeff Blake is the only one that did so in back-to-back years. Kurt Warner has a chance at adding another top ten finish to his resume, depending on how long he can hold off Matt Leinart. Matt Hasselbeck is in the best situation to add a third top ten.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is four years (7 out of the 27 that are done playing).
  4. The most top ten finishes: Brett Favre currently has 12, and needs just one more to break his first place tie with John Elway. Right behind them is Dan Marino with 11.
  5. Only two studs made the top ten in his first year. Jim Kelly was the first; however he made a two-year pit stop in the USFL before playing in the NFL, so he wasn't a true "rookie". Peyton Manning also started out in the top ten and has never left.
  6. Top ten finishes at the latest point in their career: Marino had that honor in his 16th season. Favre can join him this year.
  7. Most of the players took a break from the top 10 at some point and then returned (23 out of the 27 that are done playing).
  8. The most common slump year appears to be the eighth season. Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, and Daunte Culpepper are all heading into their eighth year; however none are coming off a top ten last year. The only current eighth year guy that did was Matt Hasselbeck.
  9. Unlike running backs, a handful of the late-bloomer QBs had sustained success: Dan Fouts, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon.
  10. Aaron Brooks dropped out of the top ten in his sixth season. Of the five other QBs that previously did the same, four returned to the top ten in their seventh year.
  11. Trent Green, Kurt Warner, and Peyton Manning are all entering their ninth season. Only 12 of 31 studs logged a top ten finish in their ninth year.
  12. Drew Bledsoe is coming off a top ten finish as he enters his 14th season. He's hoping to join the select company of Rich Gannon, Steve Young, Brett Favre, and John Elway as the only studs to have back-to-back top tens that late in their career.
  13. Mark Brunell has now gone five consecutive years without a top ten finish. No stud has returned to the top ten after that long of a break. The closest were Ken O'Brien and Dave Krieg who each had a gap of four years between top ten finishes.
  14. Steve McNair enters his 12th season looking to return to the top ten. Only Ron Jaworski, Vinny Testaverde, and Dan Marino were able to do so previously in year twelve.

Running Backs

Running Back
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Billy Simms
1
1
10
15
25
Joe Cribbs
3
10
17
7
61
27
66
131
Jerome Bettis
2
13
41
7
4
20
16
19
21
31
26
18
36
Fred Taylor
4
28
6
103
11
8
20
33
Curt Warner
4
131
17
3
4
10
33
101
Eddie George
8
12
11
3
3
19
10
22
41
Curtis Martin
2
4
14
7
8
10
18
18
4
29
Clinton Portis
4
5
11
6
Edgerrin James
1
2
32
24
10
6
5
Earl Campbell
2
1
2
12
25
8
55
52
LaDainian Tomlinson
7
3
3
3
3
Ottis Anderson
4
5
9
21
10
6
45
69
153
51
6
16
88
117
Marcus Allen
1
6
3
1
17
10
15
60
13
60
46
5
19
24
15
27
Herschel Walker
4
2
3
11
14
8
10
12
21
67
91
86
Terrell Davis
12
2
2
1
77
58
46
Terry Allen
43
4
11
7
1
29
31
17
71
38
William Andrews
21
8
2
3
2
97
Shaun Alexander
54
4
5
6
1
1
Jamal Anderson
146
87
10
10
2
120
22
65
Ricky Williams
27
18
8
2
9
ret
27
Gerald Riggs
26
42
5
5
8
20
52
26
41
37
Ahman Green
82
113
5
3
13
3
13
69
Neal Anderson
100
11
5
3
3
7
13
29
Roger Craig
16
11
2
11
7
2
10
48
44
41
70
Chuck Muncie
31
14
30
8
20
3
5
11
120
Earnest Byner
60
11
41
6
22
13
4
6
12
72
64
27
27
67
Joe Morris
91
101
44
3
2
32
18
64
Chris Warren
115
131
17
13
3
4
18
23
45
41
38
Priest Holmes
157
15
44
34
2
2
1
12
32
Wendell Tyler
69
133
12
126
5
2
24
9
27
116
John Riggins
25
14
37
15
5
35
79
16
11
21
27
3
7
38
Tiki Barber
34
44
32
13
15
7
15
2
4
 
Thurman Thomas
29
2
2
2
2
3
7
17
11
40
40
88
69
Eric Dickerson
1
2
10
1
3
1
9
32
33
32
103
Marshall Faulk
4
6
17
7
3
2
1
1
14
16
29
53
Ricky Watters
8
4
6
5
3
9
9
9
8
60
Emmitt Smith
7
3
1
1
1
1
6
18
6
5
20
25
26
64
23
Barry Sanders
4
1
1
7
16
2
3
5
1
10
Walter Payton
17
2
1
1
2
4
13
16
5
4
4
5
27

The upper 32 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of seven players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. My apologies to any of the players (or their fans) that just missed the arbitrary cut.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the running back "picture" above:

  1. Who's not on the list? Twenty-three players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first five or six on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to join.

    Jamal Lewis George Rogers Dalton Hilliard Dorsey Levens
    Mike Anderson Napolean Kaufman Christian Okoye Garrison Hearst
    Tiki Barber Natrone Means Greg Bell Derrick Fenner
    Domanick Davis Barry Foster Charles White Robert Delpino
    Larry Johnson Lorenzo White Albert Bentley Freeman McNeil
    Stephen Davis Rodney Hampton James Wilder  

  2. Joe Morris and Chris Warren were the only two-year wonders. Both did so in back-to-back years in the middle of their career.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is three years (12 out of the 29 that are done playing). Second place is four years (6 out of 29).
  4. The most top ten finishes: Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, and Ricky Watters all have nine. The closest active players are Marshall Faulk with seven and Curtis Martin with six.
  5. Many of the players took a break from the top 10 and then returned (17 out of the 29 that are done playing).
  6. The most common slump year for early starters is the third year. Seven of the eight returned to the top 10 in their fourth year (Edgerrin James being the exception).
  7. None of the late-bloomers had sustained success, i.e. more than three top ten finishes. Tiki Barber is hoping to change that.
  8. All the lifetime achievers hit the top ten in their first or second year. LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, and Shaun Alexander are off to good starts.
  9. Most stud RBs heading into their tenth year haven't done especially well. Priest Holmes is poised to join the crowd.
  10. Fred Taylor appeared to be at the point of no return last year, and this year is no different.
  11. Ahman Green's career has closely paralleled Neal Anderson's so far. This year, his ninth, he heads into uncharted territory, since Anderson only played eight years.
  12. Curtis Martin will be shooting for one last hurrah, like Ottis Anderson, Marcus Allen, or John Riggins.
  13. Any review of lifetime achievement usually concludes with imagining what could have been if Barry Sanders hadn't retired?

Wide Receivers

Wide Receiver
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
  
Charlie Brown
3
5
73
62
23
117
John Jefferson
1
4
1
34
35
15
78
110
Dwight Clark
77
3
14
2
13
18
15
34
50
Mark Duper
113
7
7
45
3
18
50
47
29
13
16
Lynn Swann
59
3
34
6
5
23
25
42
59
Ernest Givens
13
9
16
35
4
15
6
22
68
85
Wesley Walker
15
3
35
66
18
5
14
29
34
5
91
34
127
Andre Rison
31
2
7
4
2
12
45
55
15
50
107
43
Mike Quick
75
1
9
2
12
5
48
84
101
Mark Clayton
96
1
17
4
12
3
16
68
6
49
68
Anthony Miller
47
5
11
43
5
7
15
10
43
46
Isaac Bruce
75
2
8
31
73
6
6
17
16
18
12
58
Torry Holt
35
7
8
15
2
7
6
Gary Clark
19
6
3
15
7
3
3
12
31
51
67
Sterling Sharpe
40
2
8
22
1
3
2
Eric Moulds
78
83
4
23
14
33
4
45
26
35
Antonio Freeman
119
16
2
2
20
18
35
57
122
Chad Johnson
78
18
3
9
4
Carl Pickens
84
37
7
6
3
38
19
39
100
Steve Watson
99
90
2
14
9
8
21
35
93
Rod Smith
109
89
3
12
29
4
4
22
25
15
16
Tony Hill
100
11
5
2
23
19
17
20
8
33
Joey Galloway
14
13
5
9
82
124
43
26
48
55
5
Stanley Morgan
36
14
2
8
12
10
26
31
31
2
32
49
54
58
Terrell Owens
57
20
3
47
3
2
2
12
4
32
Harold Carmichael
60
47
1
6
16
26
7
4
8
12
13
9
45
127
James Lofton
12
21
4
4
4
4
5
12
28
14
63
87
38
9
19
98
Carlos Carson
93
84
18
3
16
28
50
4
38
113
Wes Chandler
51
11
13
7
1
18
27
3
27
41
126
Herman Moore
113
14
13
6
3
6
7
23
93
64
135
Michael Irvin
37
69
54
2
3
4
11
7
37
9
37
91
John Stallworth
62
37
60
4
7
6
77
11
6
116
3
18
64
45
Hines Ward
96
44
44
29
3
6
28
10
Roy Green
108
117
27
16
2
2
36
36
21
9
27
34
86
118
Andre Reed
40
24
19
12
4
9
4
18
16
4
76
18
27
40
Joe Horn
145
131
98
49
9
7
9
14
3
56
Ahmad Rashad
28
32
25
23
23
9
3
6
19
71
Jimmy Smith
152
156
84
11
11
10
4
12
6
19
30
21
19
Drew Hill
89
56
60
96
56
4
14
7
6
20
14
14
47
79
Henry Ellard
92
32
27
54
22
1
6
5
19
34
27
8
25
33
55
124
Tim Brown
26
139
75
41
20
6
5
9
10
8
15
11
11
9
39
64
106
Irving Fryar
94
23
22
34
42
51
30
21
25
11
9
21
5
10
58
88
50
 
Randy Moss
1
2
1
5
5
1
19
15
Marvin Harrison
21
25
31
1
2
1
1
5
5
8
Cris Carter
96
28
24
67
18
22
5
10
4
7
4
7
3
10
32
129
Steve Largent
19
5
2
1
5
3
13
6
4
5
8
6
45
59
Jerry Rice
22
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
4
119
8
38
25
10
11
37
65

The upper 42 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of five players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers. It may be premature to place Moss and Harrison in that group, however the six consecutive top fives for each looks like it visually belongs in that group.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the wide receiver "picture" above:

  1. Who's not on the list? Twenty-three players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first nine on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to become a stud.

    Marcus Robinson Derrick Alexander Michael Jackson
    David Boston Rob Moore Tony Martin
    Anquan Boldin Robert Brooks Terance Mathis
    Muhsin Muhammad Michael Haynes Mark Carrier
    Javon Walker Ricky Sanders Eddie Brown
    Keyshawn Johnson J.T. Smith Louis Lipps
    Steve Smith Alfred Jenkins Kevin House
    Larry Fitzgerald    
    Santana Moss    

  2. Charlie Brown and Antonio Freeman were the only back-to-back two-year wonders. Dwight Clark and Carlos Carson also had only two stud seasons, but in nonconsecutive years. Eric Moulds is also currently in that category.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is three years (16 out of the 38 that are done playing). Second place is four years (8 out of 38).
  4. Like Charlie Brown and John Jefferson, Randy Moss made the top five as a rookie; however he was able to sustain that success much longer.
  5. The popular theory is that many wide receivers "break out" in their third year. It appears that more stud receivers tend to break out in their second year. The other end of the spectrum is Irving Fryar. He came close to breaking out in his tenth year, and then finally did in his eleventh season.
  6. Old guy Rod Smith enters his 12th season and Isaac Bruce enters his 13th, and both have gone at least four years without a top ten finish. A return to the top ten after a lengthy absence however, is not unprecedented. James Lofton and Joey Galloway both did it after a six year gap.
  7. Many of the players took a break from the top 10 and then returned (28 out of the 38 that are done playing).
  8. The most common years for players to drop out of the top ten are their seventh or eighth season. Torry Holt is entering his eighth year.
  9. Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison are all entering their 11th year. Based solely on looking at similar career paths, it looks like Moulds and Horn will not return to the top ten, Owens might, and Harrison definitely will.
  10. With a top ten finish this year, Marvin Harrison would tie Cris Carter for second place with eight consecutive top ten years.
  11. What Jerry Rice did was truly amazing...but we already knew that.

Tight Ends

Running Back
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Jeremy Shockey
3
11
6
2
Randy McMichael
9
8
5
8
Russ Francis
1
12
13
8
8
2
12
18
29
16
13
39
34
Eric Green
6
3
23
2
6
12
28
6
25
49
Antonio Gates
18
1
1
Johnny Mitchell
24
4
5
9
66
94
Marv Cook
65
8
1
10
32
29
39
Dan Ross
16
6
4
5
12
43
40
Rickey Dudley
12
3
5
3
13
55
27
65
83
Bubba Franks
22
6
4
20
10
35
Todd Heap
35
1
3
23
3
Freddie Jones
11
9
5
3
13
24
9
17
Alge Crumpler
18
8
6
4
5
Paul Coffman
56
6
14
8
11
3
5
6
41
51
Mark Bavaro
13
2
1
4
13
9
16
9
19
Tony McGee
15
11
5
8
9
26
18
25
42
30
Jackie Harris
34
11
5
8
13
8
18
34
19
26
12
36
Mark Chmura
62
36
2
20
8
8
74
Mike Barber
60
34
9
18
5
31
24
7
68
63
Jimmie Giles
35
18
4
9
6
7
24
27
3
11
36
43
24
Hoby Brenner
38
31
9
8
9
29
16
51
5
20
34
32
29
Brent Jones
65
33
3
1
13
3
6
3
10
14
18
Doug Cosbie
48
47
16
6
5
7
4
22
8
45
Frank Wycheck
48
43
15
5
5
4
6
6
5
20
34
Jay Novacek
70
62
14
6
30
3
4
1
16
12
3
Rodney Holman
44
68
34
8
9
9
9
1
4
9
18
20
38
60
Marcus Pollard
73
36
52
18
10
11
2
6
7
15
14
Wesley Walls
57
56
64
70
8
6
2
4
7
1
14
12
19
35
Mickey Shuler
30
20
28
61
17
33
4
2
6
5
2
25
29
50
 
Ozzie Newsome
5
1
11
3
3
4
2
7
12
18
14
19
18
Keith Jackson
1
2
2
5
2
5
4
37
4
Kellen Winslow
21
1
1
1
2
12
38
4
4
Tony Gonzalez
19
10
2
1
1
2
1
2
7
Ben Coates
38
20
3
1
1
3
2
3
17
61
Dave Casper
28
34
1
3
1
5
4
7
2
39
51
Todd Christensen
58
55
32
4
1
1
1
1
3
31
Steve Jordan
49
32
22
12
3
6
3
4
5
6
12
10
56
Shannon Sharpe
33
15
4
1
2
4
1
1
1
38
2
3
5
2

The upper 29 players are listed beginning with early starters through late bloomers, so that players with similar career paths are grouped together. The group of nine players at the bottom is the super-stud lifetime achievers.

Assorted observations and thoughts based on the tight end "picture" above:

  1. Who's not on the list? Twenty-five players had a top five finish, but didn't make the cut. The first seven on this list are still active, so they still have a chance to become a stud.

    Chris Cooley David Sloan Derrick Ramsey
    Jason Witten Cam Cleeland Joe Senser
    Boo Williams Ethan Horton Don Hasselbeck
    Itula Mili Pete Holohan Junior Miller
    Desmond Clark Rob Awalt  
    Chad Lewis Clint Didier  
    Kyle Brady John Spagnola  

  2. Tight end is the only position without a single two-year wonder, unless something drastic happens to Antonio Gates.
  3. The most common number of top ten finishes is three years (9 out of the 24 that are done playing). Second place is five years (7 out of 24).
  4. Randy McMichael has ranked in the top ten each of his first four years, and Jeremy Shockey was only one 11th place finish away from doing the same. That puts them in the company of Keith Jackson and Ozzie Newsome respectively.
  5. Just like wide receiver, it appears that more stud tight ends tend to break out in their second year. Thirteen of the TEs entered the top ten in year two.
  6. Tight end is the least likely position for a player to return to the top ten after a lengthy absence. Hoby Brenner had the largest break, and that was only three years. That doesn't bode well for Marcus Pollard.
  7. Exactly half of the players took a break from the top 10 and then returned (12 out of the 24 that are done playing).
  8. The most common years for players to drop out of the top ten are their fifth season. Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey are both entering year five.
  9. Things don't look promising for Bubba Franks as he enters his seventh year. The only similar career path TE that salvaged another top ten finish at this stage was Freddie Jones.
  10. Entering year six, Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler are both coming off top five finishes. History is on their side. Of the previous players in that same scenario, two dropped out of the top ten, two slipped into the sixth-to-tenth category; however eight repeated as top fivers.
  11. Tony Gonzalez is currently tied with Keith Jackson with eight top ten years, which is good for second place. He'll need three more to catch up to Shannon Sharpe's 11 top tens.
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