Managing Risk on Your 2008 Fantasy Roster

Posted 7/14 by Mark Wimer, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Fantasy football is about more than just statistics and projections. While raw data about the players' anticipated on-field performance is useful and can help us on draft day in the selection process (once compiled and sorted), it doesn't paint the whole picture. Beyond what happens on game-day, we need to remember that players are members of a team - a political structure composed of human beings, with a dictator the top of the heap (usually the head coach, unless one is in a place like Oakland or Dallas, where hands-on owners play a big role in roster management). In addition, each player has behavioral/mental dimensions that may affect the level of success he achieves in the course of any given NFL season. In order for your fantasy franchise to triumph during any given season, you need to manage the "intangible" risks that have bearing on your players' chances for success.

During the past month, we saw two clear examples of how off-the-field issues can suddenly pop up to potentially negatively impact a NFL players' career. The situations surrounding Cedric Benson and Marshawn Lynch during June led to Benson losing his job with Chicago, while Lynch received a misdemeanor traffic citation when the dust settled. Later on in this article, we'll take a look at how a cross-section of fantasy owners responded to the hit-and-run allegations leveled at Marshawn Lynch while that story was unfolding - there are some interesting viewpoints that derived from this incident.

So, what kind of risks can drag down your franchise's players? The list includes (but is not limited to): Chronic Injury; Attitude Problems; Coach's Doghouse (includes holdouts); Positional Battles (including the dreaded by-committee specter); Switching to a New Team; New Coaching Staff on Players' Team(s); Offensive Line Problems; Off Field Problems (Reported Substance Abuse/Legal Issues/League Suspensions); and finally, Drafting Too Many Players from One Team.

Many times the mantra "you can't predict injuries" is repeated in fantasy circles - and in some cases, perhaps most cases, this is true. However, certain types of injuries - the "chronic" or "degenerative" injury - are definitely the sort of condition that a fantasy owner can rely on to manifest at some point in the season. For example, elbow tendonitis in a quarterback's throwing arm. Tendons don't heal up very well, because they don't get much blood flow - once they are damaged, a player needs to turn to pain management techniques precisely because the condition isn't likely to be reversed. Ex-Brown Tim Couch is an example of a player who never reached his potential due to elbow problems of this sort. Another example would be degenerative cartilage damage in the knees. Once cartilage is worn away from a player's knee, the bones impact on each other during each stride, which causes chronic swelling, pain, and the need for "drainage". Sometimes bone chips get lodged in the joint and the joint "locks up" - a condition that ended Curtis Martin's NFL career. The Cowboy's Terry Glenn is a player dealing with this situation entering 2008 - bone-on-bone contact in his right knee - he missed most of last season due to a slow recovery from two arthroscopic surgeries performed to clean out/repair his right knee. Glenn considered microfracture surgery on the joint this past offseason (a procedure touted to regrow cartilage in the affected joint), but decided to postpone the surgery until after his career is over. Currently, Glenn and the Cowboys are wrangling over whether or not he'll sign an injury waiver - he very well may not play another down for the Cowboys as things currently stand. Few teams are going to be busting down Glenn's door due to the chronic knee problem. If you draft a player with a similar, known chronic condition, you'll want to also draft his backup as well, if possible.

Attitude problems are another factor which can negatively impact a player's production - they can lead to sloppy practice habits, mental lapses during games, problems with teammates, or confrontations with the coaching staff. As we discussed at the top, a football team is a political entity - if a player becomes a "locker-room cancer", then the coaching staff might decide to put him in the doghouse ("Grab a piece of the bench and shut-up!") or give a player his outright release. Attitude problems don't always send a player to the doghouse or the curb, but they will help him on the way there. Chicago's Cedric Benson struggled with attitude problems throughout his NFL career in Chicago, showing poor team spirit as a rookie holdout and poor motivation in preseason games the following year - he never realized his potential, and his poor history with the team was a factor in his dismissal after 2 charges of operating motor vehicles (a boat and a car) under the influence of alcohol this offseason (as noted above).

Of course, attitude problems aren't the only way to get in the coaches' doghouse. Another tried and true method of reducing one's playing time in the NFL is to holdout during mini- and training camp practices, or a large portion of them. At the least, a holdout will usually lead a player to a poor start, and some coaches believe that missing a large part of preseason camp practice makes players more likely to suffer serious injury, because the holdout often isn't at the same level of condition as players who have been participating in the full slate of practices. Also, at the NFL level timing is a crucial factor in most offenses, and "getting up to speed" requires many repetitions - which a holdout will lack in proportion to the length of their absence from the team. WR Anquan Boldin is unhappy with his current contract in Arizona (after watching Larry Fitzgerald get a huge pay raise during the offseason), and has been skipping voluntary organized team activities in protest throughout the spring. As QB Matt Leinart is getting back up to speed in the team's offense after missing most of last year due to a broken collarbone, Boldin is jeopardizing his rapport and timing with Leinart (and the goodwill of the coaching staff led by Ken Whisenhunt) by missing the sessions. Boldin is also currently threatening to hold out of training camp, stating in Mid-June "I honestly can't say at this point (whether he'd be a training camp)."

Positional battles are another pitfall that can reduce a player's fantasy worth. NFL teams are constantly on the hunt for bigger, better, faster players - that's what the draft is all about - and guys who didn't look very good as rookies (especially at WR) often blossom in their second or third season, and rise up to challenge an established veteran. Knowing the quality of the back-up players on the various teams will help you assess the likelihood that a veteran player may be becoming "yesterday's news". In Carolina there is a positional battle brewing between veteran DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart to headline the Panthers' rushing attack. As Charles Chandler of the Charlotte Observer told Footballguys "The Audible" hosts Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom "If healthy, Stewart figures to be the feature-back. The season might not start out that way, but it shouldn't take long. He fits the mold of the ideal back in the Carolina offense - a big, strong, powerful runner with speed (4.45 40 time) who can carry 25 or so times a game if necessary. He had some injury issues in college, so he'll likely split carries with Williams - I'm guessing a 2-1 ratio in carries, favoring Stewart."

In the era of free agency, players are in constant motion among the NFL teams. Big contracts get paid out to unrestricted free agents every offseason, and some of the moves are positive - but others just don't work out. Especially when a player is not only switching teams, but also offensive systems, there can be a negative impact on the player's fantasy value. When a big-name guy switches teams, pay particular attention to how he looks in training camp and preseason games - while the preseason games are played against vanilla defensive schemes and, for starters, only small amounts of game-time, if a player is lost with his new team, you'll see it manifest as bad routes, dropped passes, and etc. Javon Walker got an immense contract from the Raiders (and has been busy spending it on things like spraying crowds of club-goers in Las Vegas with Cristal champagne) to help youngster JaMarcus Russell reach his potential as a QB - yet Walker has been more interested in partying than working out. Before he was beaten and robbed in Las Vegas, Walker appeared at an early June minicamp out of shape. "Javon's a little heavy right now so we're going to continue this offseason to get him down by training camp and the regular season, the final thing that counts," head coach Lane Kiffin said on June 5th. "He's picking up the offense fine but we've got a long way to go." Walker's situation combines several intangible risk factors along with the free-agency move to Oakland, as you can see.

Sometimes, the players don't leave a team - instead, some or all of the coaching staff is replaced. For example, Atlanta is reconstructing their team under their second head coach/coaching staff in as many years entering 2008 - and adding to the fun by throwing a first round, rookie QB named Matt Ryan into the mix (and a new starting RB, Michael Turner; and a new starting TE, Ben Hartsock...) as well. There hasn't been much stability in Atlanta of late, and with all the new faces it is likely to take several regular season games before this squad finds its groove (if they manage to do so at all this coming year).

Offensive line problems are an insidious factor, because cohesiveness of the entire unit is essential for solid line play. Line play is what opens holes for running backs to exploit and provides the time necessary for passing plays to develop. If a team has a lot of quality OL players who miss time in camp due to a plague of minor injuries, the "quality" unit may play worse than another team's unit of average OL players who enjoy lots of repetitions in camp. Therefore, it is worth your while as a fantasy owner to monitor the relative healthiness of the 32 OL units across the NFL in the days leading up to your fantasy draft, and to pay attention to it as the season progresses. During 2007, we saw how a poor offensive line impacted a fine running back when Thomas Jones managed just a single rushing TD for the Jets and was held to his worst yards-per-carry average in five years (checking in at 3.6 YPC last season). With the offseason additions of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody on the OL, and FB Tony Richardson to lead-block for Jones, expect improvement across the board - if the new-look OL jells in training camp.

Off-field problems can lead to league suspensions, which vary in length from 4 games to entire seasons - in extreme circumstances, a player can even be banned from the NFL for life. If a player has had a series of run-ins with law enforcement, or has a history of substance-abuse problems, that player is a higher risk for suspension than better-behaved professional athletes (although sometimes even "nice" guys can give you a nasty surprise). Cincinnati's Chris Henry has incurred an indefinite suspension from the NFL after his fifth arrest as a Bengal (and after serving an eight-game suspension during 2007). His track record of violence and lawbreaking off the field has perhaps entirely derailed his NFL career - he is certainly a clear example of how poor character can ruin a players' chances during the NFL's Roger Goodell era.

Finally, sometimes fantasy owners are big fans of a particular NFL team, and they fill up their roster with lots of players from that team. This obviously leads to big problems on that teams' bye-week - but there are other problems, too. Almost every NFL team has games during the season where things just don't go right, and the offense stalls. Maybe they are playing in a torrential downpour, or dealing with the arctic cold and blizzard conditions in Cleveland's Browns' Stadium - as happened on December 16th, 2007 in a 8-0 victory over Buffalo, during which Cleveland eked out 9/24 for 137 yards passing and Buffalo managed 13/33 for 133 yards. It was a very bad day to start Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and/or Kellen Winslow II. Any fantasy team that relies heavily on one NFL team will suffer a similar "power-outage". Also, relying heavily on just one NFL team means that any OL problems the team suffers during the course of the season will be very damaging to the fantasy squad, as those heavily invested in the Jets' offense last year discovered to their detriment.

So, how do we translate all these possible risk factors into something that you can use on draft day? For example, how much does an off-field incident lower expectations for a players' coming season? Let's take a look at a poll I conducted on the Footballguys.com message board (starting on June 16th, while the Marshawn Lynch hit-and-run story was unfolding) for some insight into how various fantasy owners weigh such occurrences.

I posed the question "How Far has Marshawn Lynch Dropped on your Draft Board? Lynch's position today vs. before legal woes started" and received the following responses from 111 fantasy owners who frequent the Footballguys.com message boards:

I've moved him up [ 4 ] [3.60%]
Lynch hasn't moved on my board [ 33 ] [29.73%]
I dropped him 1 slot [ 4 ] [3.60%]
I dropped him 2 slots [ 6 ] [5.41%]
I dropped him 3 slots [ 4 ] [3.60%]
I dropped him 4 slots [ 6 ] [5.41%]
I dropped him 5 slots [ 8 ] [7.21%]
I dropped him 6 slots [ 5 ] [4.50%]
I dropped him 7 slots [ 5 ] [4.50%]
I dropped him 8 slots [ 5 ] [4.50%]
I dropped him 9 slots [ 3 ] [2.70%]
I dropped him 10 slots [ 7 ] [6.31%]
He's slid more than 10 down my board [ 12 ] [10.81%]
Right now he's undraftable in my opinion [ 9 ] [8.11%]

The biggest group of fantasy owners were taking a wait-and-see approach before adjusting their draft boards (29.73% of respondents) while the second-largest group had either moved Lynch 10 or more slots down their draft board (17.17%) or considered him undraftable (8.11%). In between those unconcerned by the incident (or those suspending judgment) and those very concerned by the incident there was a wide range of opinions. As you can see, when it comes to intangible risks generated by off-field incidents, the response of one particular fantasy owner is likely to be very different from the actions of another. Some people are more risk-averse than others, which is partly why one expert might rank the Bengals' Chad Johnson as a top-5 fantasy WR (Footballguy Anthony Borbely, as of 7/9/08) while another might drop him outside of the top 10 (Footballguys John Norton and Jeff Pasquino).

One common approach for incorporating intangible risk factors into your draft sheet is to include a column that says "Injury Risk" or simply "?". The more negative qualitative factors you believe a player has against him, the more ? marks accumulate in that column. Then, when you are debating between two or three players during the draft, you can help break ties in projected point value by referring to a player's potential risk level.

Evaluating each player on your draft list in terms of "risk" will help you to draft the most consistent and solid fantasy football team around. Simply being able to break numerical ties on the basis of your risk analysis will make your entire mid-to-late round efforts easier - it's worth the investment of time and effort. Happy Drafting!