Let me start by saying that I think Corey Dillon is one of best running backs in the National Football League (NFL) and I am only using him as an example for this article. In fact, I have probably drafted him more times than any other owner in my league. For the past three seasons I have been singing his praises from the rooftops leading up to the draft in anticipation of the year he solidifies himself as a fantasy stud. As everyone reading this probably already knows, Corey Dillon's sporadic production as a fantasy running back can be attributed to his team more than his own personal efforts. Corey Dillon's unfortunate situation is also worsened for me due to how my league determines its league champion. Instead of determining our champion through a head to head season and playoff, we award points similar to a power ranking. I play in a 10-team league in which a team is awarded anywhere from one (1) to ten (10) points each week based upon how they finish in comparison to the remainder of the league. The team with the most points for the week is awarded 10 points and the team with the least points for the week is awarded 1 point. I understand this type of format is probably not the most used format, but for owners who participate in similar leagues or survivor type leagues the following discussion may provide some useful insight.

A terrible week in my league can simply be devastating. Last year I was fortunate to win my league. I scored a total of 131 points during the seventeen (17) week season. That averages to 7.7 points per week or nearly a third place finish each week. If you consider that a tenth place week results in 1 point, it would take approximately 5 consecutive weekly second place finishes to accumulate enough points to reappear on the leader board. The consequences are even more severe in a survivor league where one terrible week may get you booted from the island. However, if you have a terrible week in a head to head league, a couple of consecutive wins have you back on track.

I understand all players are capable of having a couple of bad weeks each season but Corey Dillon exhibits more up and downs than Cybill. He certainly can rush for 270 yards in one game but he also can rush for 12 yards the following week. Typically one player on each team will have a below average week, the trouble begins when two players struggle in the same week. If you select Corey Dillon as your second running back and pair him with Clinton Portis or LaDainian Tomlinson you may be in excellent shape. However, if you wait on a running back and eventually draft Corey Dillon as your torchbearer I predict you will be in store for a long year. This approach guarantees that you cannot realistically depend on your second running back to carry the load when Dillon struggles. Additionally, I feel it is dangerous to team Corey Dillon with another running back susceptible to injury (i.e. Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, etc.).

In reviewing the historical statistics for my league, an average week from a running back is somewhere in the range of twenty (20) to twenty-nine (29) points. An above average week is in the thirties, a below average week is in the teens, a huge week is forty points or more, and a terrible week is 10 or less points. In reviewing Corey Dillon's statistics from last season, he had three (3) terrible weeks (10 or fewer points), six (6) below average weeks, 3 above average weeks, and 2 huge weeks. This indicates that there were nine (9) weeks last season in which Corey Dillon handed his owners a shovel to dig themselves a grave. That is likely an insurmountable handicap in a power ranking or survivor league.

It is vital to understand your leagues rules and look beyond seasonal projections. Again, using Corey Dillon as an example, he scored 360 points last season in my league, which is an average of 22.5 points per week. That is not bad production until you consider the number of poor weeks he had last season and the affects a bad week has on a championship run in a power ranking or survivor league.

To identify other potential players who may be pose similar risks one must examine their own league history. Evaluate the point production and point breakdown previous league champions have accomplished. For example, I play in a league with an aggressive scoring system in which it requires approximately 200 points a week to compete for a weekly win. Even the league champion will not score 200 points each week, however if a team averages approximately 180 points a week they will certainly be in contention come December. Previous league champions typically average the following weekly production from the individual positions:

This breakdown is not static and various other arrangements will certainly work but the obvious goal is to draft a team that gives you the best opportunity to average at least 180 points per week on a consistent basis. Use the previous league champion and their weekly player production determine a range which would constitute a below average week and a range which would constitute a terrible week. For example, a quarterback in my league typically should average 30 points a week so an average range might be 25 to 35 points per week. A below average week might be anywhere from 20 to 25 points and a bad week might be anything less than 20 points.

Next examine the weekly production from the players you intend to include on your draft cheat sheet and record the number of below average and terrible weeks each player registered the previous year (or averaged over the previous years). Obviously a terrible week is more damaging than simply a below average week, so quantify each by assigning a value of 1 point to a below average week and 2 points to a terrible week. Next sum the values and include this information with the respective player on your cheat sheet. This information should not be used as your primary deciding factor when drafting because sometimes you may not have a choice but to select an inconsistent player, however it can be used as deciding factor when selecting between two or more players during the draft. For example, if you have already selected Priest Holmes in the first round in hopes of him being completely recovered from his hip injury (huge upside) it may be prudent to hedge this bet with a more reliable or steady player in the second round. Consider if your choices came down to Ahman Green and Fred Taylor (these two players were chosen because they separated by less than 5 points for the season in my league last year). Ahman Green's "Inconsistency Score" was 7 for 2002 and Fred Taylor's was 10. The best selection appears to be Ahman Green when considering the possibility that Priest Holmes may not be completely healed.

In conclusion it is important to understand your league's scoring and format and have a keen awareness of what past champions have accomplished. And in the event you play in a power ranking league, such as mine, it is imperative to understand "what is the problem with Corey Dillon".