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2003 Rookies - Defensive Backs
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Posted 5/12/03 by Tom Nadratowski - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Every year, hot rookie CBs get all the hype. Philip Buchanon,
Quentin Jammer, Champ Bailey - all highly touted, and all fantasy non-factors.
This years' hot CB is the Dallas' Terence Newman. He may finally be
able to break the "hot CB curse", but if historical trends stay consistent
he won't. He's worth a shot due to his talent but don't draft him highly because
of his hype.
The guy with the seizure-inducing last name, Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha,
and Tennessee CB Andre Woolfork are also top candidates to befantasy
non-factors due to talent. Woolfolk is likely to be the nickel back on starting
day.
Seattle CB Marcus Trufant is another player who might bear the taint
of the too-talented curse. He has nice speed and good instincts. Yet, he may
give the team the option of trading much-gruntled CB Shawn Springs. He is an
intriguing prospect with an improving chance of starting - as long as the team
keeps trying to ship Springs.
The odds-on favorites to make instant fantasy contributions are a pair of SSs
- Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu and Indianapolis' Mike Doss. They
have similar talent levels, and have excellent shots at this early date to be
the starter at the beginning of the season. Of the two, I like Polamalu. He
is bigger (6-4 vs. Doss' 5-11), and is referred to as being a LB in a SS's body.
Doss is a ball magnet, and given the state of the Colts' defense has a great
shot at starting this year.
Cincinnati DB Dennis Weathersby could be surprisingly productive. A
lot of times it seems like DBs in the 3-5th rd wind up being the most productive
fantasy-wise. I think it's because they're both good enough to play and keep
a starting job as well as not being threatening enough to make QBs avoid them.
He's a big, physical guy on a D that has been pretty good to fantasy players
over the years.
New England CB Eugene Wilson is going to be a project. He isn't very
fast (4.5) and has bad size at 5-10. He is a willing hitter and has good ball
and coverage instincts. But I think his size will make him a nickel back.
Jacksonville FS Rashean Mathis could be a decent contributor, but is
not currently scheduled to be a full-time starter. He was a starter in college
and right now it seems like the team is going to make him a FS. He is blazing
fast (4.4) and has solid tackling ability. He's one of those guys that could
be a nice fantasy starter if he gets the shot.
San Diego CB Sammy Davis is really fast. He tackles well and covers
well, and has good speed. Given those abilities, and his first-round status,
he'll be given every opportunity to win a starting job. He might actually be
a good fantasy play, since he's good enough but shouldn't keep QBs from throwing
at him.
Seattle S Ken Hamlin is a powerful hitter, with decent size and average
speed. He reminds me of Rodney Harrison. He gets burned too often, and needs
to improve his run/pass diagnosis. He also has off-field troubles - two DUI
convictions. He will probably start at SS next year.
Kansas City FS Julian Battle has the look you want in an NFL DB. He
has good size, good instincts and is fast enough to play. Battle also played
his collegiate career against top talent. He has a shot of unseating Jerome
Woods this year. The big knock on him are character issues. If he can master
those he could be an NFL and fantasy contributor.
San Diego CB Drayton Florence is a project, and could hit it big or
fall flat. Florence is just under six foot and runs a solid 4.45. He played
at a small-time school and will need time to adjust. He has sloppy technique
and gets burned in single coverage. And he is stuck on the second tier of the
depth chart. So at best he's a project for you.
Atlanta DB Bryan Scott played CB in college but will change over in
the NFL to SS. He isn't very agile and doesn't play well in single coverage.
He has good run/pass diagnosis, and that, coupled with his collegiate limitations,
is the reason for the switch. Given a good camp, he could beat out the underperforming
Gerald McBurroughs.
Carolina S Colin Branch is blazing fast but needs work. He gets burned
in coverage and doesn't have solid technique. He will likely spend this year
in nickel packages getting used to the NFL.
San Diego S Terence Kiel is very fast (4.4 range). He has a good shot
to break into the starting lineup since the team was not at all satisfied with
the caliber of play they got out of their secondary last year. He really hits
hard and has good coverage skills.
St. Louis CB DeJuan Groce has good quickness but average speed. He is
also short at 5-9. He gets out muscled and doesn't do well in single coverage.
He does have good quickness and ball skills. For now he is likely a nickel back
at best.
4th round pick NY Giants CB Rod Babers can cover very well. However,
he has serious limitations. He is really small. (5-9), and that means he probably
won't ever be more than a nickel back.
3rd round pick Carolina CB Ricky Manning is very fast and quick, but
is very small. Due to his size limitations he'll probably top out as the nickel
man.
Pittsburgh DB Ivan Taylor is big and fast and is a great athlete. He
was a good college player but should struggle at first while he is making the
transition to the NFL. He didn't play against top-notch talent in school which
will hinder him. He will probably stay as a special teamer while he learns the
game.
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