Only in fantasy football do you have to make decisions on whether Mike Alstott or the Tampa Bay defense will better help your team with the Super Bowl. In real life, that question would be a no brainer (sorry Mike). In fantasy football, it becomes much more scientific. Some might see which "player" will score them the most points. A proponent of VBD might subtract the baseline values from the projected fantasy points of both the Bucs defense and Alsott, and see which "player" had more value. A fan of Dynamic VBD might decide to look at which will last to the next round, and what options remain in the following round at both running back and defense. Wouldn't it just be easier to draft a defense that has the potential to do almost as well as Tampa Bay, but can be had ten rounds later?

For the past few years, the Quarterback by committee theory has been advocated by many fantasy football veterans. Now gaining similar prominence is the DEFENSE TEAM BY COMMITTEE (DTBC) strategy. The logic behind this philosophy? If you can draft two defenses late, and start one of them against a weak offense almost every week, your defense will be among the tops in the league. These two defenses are supposed to be drafted very late, so they won't cost you much. Conversely, if they're being drafted late it means they aren't expected (by most) to do very well. However, wouldn't you rather use that seventh rounder on a value player, and instead of the Tampa defense have a defense playing Houston, Arizona, Chicago and other anemic offenses most of the year?

There are three things I look for when choosing my two defenses for the DTBC pairing:

1. Schedules that mix well together
2. A concerted effort by the franchise to improve their defense
3. The potential for a dominant unit

The first one is obvious-the goal here is to find two teams that nearly always face inferior offenses. Unfortunately, you're generally going to be left with two below average defenses (at least from last year). That's why I look for teams that seem to be headed in the right direction defensively, and teams that have the talent to have an outstanding group of players at a position. When you think of the best three defenses in recent memory, overpowering groups come to mind: The Tampa Bay defensive line; The Pittsburgh linebackers; the Miami secondary. Last year's surprise defense Carolina fit this mold well. They made a strong effort to improve their defense, selecting the top defensive player in the draft, and hiring an intelligent defensive coach in John Fox. The Panthers had an average back seven, but their dominant line helped propel them to the number two defense in the league.

Now that we know what we're targeting, which two sleeper defenses can be selected late in most fantasy drafts? Let's first look at the schedules that match up well.

Using Football Guys projections, I first checked to see which teams had the best offenses, and thus were the ones we don't want our DTBC to face. (The formula used .03 points for totals yards, 0.3 points for every actual point scored, and -2 for every turnover.). Here are the results, from top to bottom, of the best offenses in the league, and the worst to face for fantasy defenses:

I then went through the NFL schedule, and awarded a team one point for every game against Oakland, two points for every game against San Francisco, and so on until thirty-two points for a game against the Cowboys. A bye week is worth zero points. Then I added the point totals for each team, for the first sixteen weeks of the season: because most fantasy leagues play their championship game in week sixteen, I chose not to use week seventeen data. Indianapolis, Seattle, San Francisco and Miami had the easiest four schedules in the league. However, you can get face more favorable matchups if you choose two teams, and play a DTBC system. Here are two lists of five-the top five DTBCs according to strength (or should I say weakness) of schedule, and another list of five which may help those of you decide which defense to pair with your stud defense for maximum results.

• Stud Ds: Tampa Bay w/ Washington; Philadelphia w/ Seattle; Carolina w/ New Orleans; Miami w/ Dallas; Pittsburgh w/ Seattle.



• DTBC: Seattle and Jacksonville, Seattle and Arizona, Seattle and San Francisco, Indianapolis and Washington, Seattle and Washington.

While all of those represent interesting combinations for this season, the combination of Jacksonville and Seattle best maximizes value drafting, defensive talent and favorable schedule. Let's examine the two teams:

Jacksonville Jaguars
DL: Hugh Douglas, Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, Marco Coleman
LB: Akin Ayodele/Keith Mitchell, Mike Peterson, Eric Westmoreland
DB: Fernando Bryant, Jason Craft, Marlon McCree, Donovan Darius

The Jaguars hired Jack Del Rio to be their second coach in franchise history, making an obvious statement that the team plans to improve their defense. Del Rio spent three years with the Ravens, coaching Ray Lewis, Jamie Sharper and Peter Boulware as the Baltimore LBs coach. He then left for a slightly harder challenge-the Carolina Panthers, who had the second worst defense in the league in 2001. In just one offseason, Del Rio helped Carolina become the second best defense in the league, ranking first or second in total yards allowed, rushing yards per carry, yards per play, sacks and third down defense. Jacksonville's defense took a big step in the right direction with the Del Rio hiring.

I know what you're thinking-Jacksonville doesn't have the defensive talent of a Baltimore or Carolina. Consider this: over half of the Jaguars starting defense were former first round picks (Douglas, Stroud, Henderson, Coleman, Darius, Bryant). This is a defense that finished in the top ten in the league in points allowed last season, but shelled out forty-eight million dollars to bring in two star players. DE Hugh Douglas, the former Jet and Eagle, will greatly improve the Jags pass rush. Jacksonville spent their top picks in 2001 and 2002 on defensive tackles, and they have the potential to have a special defensive line. The other big signing was Mike Peterson, of Indianapolis fame. At twenty seven, Peterson's a strong all around linebacker who will bring speed to the middle linebacker position. Now in his prime, Peterson totaled 294 tackles the two full seasons he started with the Colts.

The Jaguars made three key additions this offseason with Douglas, Peterson and Del Rio, and should have their best defense in years. They have the potential for a dominant defensive line, which features four former first round picks. Expect Del Rio to follow the formula of the 2002 Panthers, meaning lots of low scoring games in Jacksonville this season. If he can develop some of the young talents on this roster, Jacksonville will be a top ten defense in 2003. Here's how defensive coordinator Mike Smith described the defensive philosophy: "It's an attacking, disruptive philosophy. We're going to try to be as disruptive as possible, whether it be through line stunts, blitzes. We want to keep the offense on its heels all of the time," Smith said. The Jags also have a wildcard: Jermaine Lewis. Lewis will greatly help the special teams, and should be good for a touchdown or two this season (if your league combines defense and special teams).

Seattle Seahawks
DL: Antonio Cochran, Chad Eaton/John Randle/Norman Hand, Chike Okeafor
LB: Anthony Simmons, Randall Godfrey, Chad Brown
DB: Shawn Springs, Ken Lucas/Marcus Trufant(R), Damien Robinson/Ken Hamlin(R)/Reggie Tongue

Like Jacksonville, Seattle showed a desire to improve immediately with the hiring of Ray Rhodes. One of the top defensive minds in the game, the defensive coordinator also has some new toys to play with, as all the significant player additions for the Seahawks came on the defensive side of the ball. Let's start though, with what they have returning.

Shawn Springs and Anthony Simmons, two players with pro bowl talent, didn't contribute much last season. Springs had a down year by his standards, but Ray Rhodes has been effective at getting the most out of his players. Simmons, one of the game's best unknown defenders, played only seven games due to a severe ankle injury. With both of them back, the Seahawks have three star players to build around. The third? CB Marcus Trufant, a shutdown corner who was a steal with the eleventh pick in the draft. Ken Lucas had a very strong 2002, so Trufant may not start yet-regardless, Seattle will have three talented and athletic corners to play. Second round pick Ken Hamlin has received great praise, and will work in the safety rotation.

Veterans Chad Brown and John Randle may not be in their prime anymore, but should still contribute. Brown missed eight games last year, and having him back will help their run defense. Randle, even at thirty-five, has remained productive-he has eighteen sacks in his twenty-seven career games as a Seahawk. Where Seattle really benefited was taking advantage of two teams headed in different directions. New Orleans is rebuilding their defense around the concept of speed, and traded DT Norman Hand to Seattle. Hand is a huge body, and should be able to clog up the middle for last year's league-worst run defense. Randall Godfrey was a salary cap casualty in Tennessee, but the MLB has helped lead great defenses in both Tennessee and Dallas. Godfrey is now thirty, but was heavily recruited by Seattle, and has the ability to make the players around him better. Chike Okeafor is a high motor guy that Ray Rhodes coveted, and the former 49er will improve a weak defensive line.

After an awful year in 2002, Seattle significantly upgraded their defensive talent. They have a good mix of star veterans and promising youngsters, and a creative defensive coach to make it all work. They were the victim of the injury bug last season, but they should be above average at both LB and in the secondary.

The Combined Schedule
Now, onto the best part: Using the Jacksonville/Seattle DTBC combo, here are the weekly offenses your fantasy D/ST could face. In parenthesis is their offensive rank:

Week 1: Carolina (31)
Week 2: Arizona (30)
Week 3: St. Louis (6)
Week 4: Houston (27)
Week 5: Green Bay (15) or San Diego (8)
Week 6: Miami (12)
Week 7: Chicago (28)
Week 8: Cincinnati (26)
Week 9: Baltimore (29)
Week 10: Washington (22)
Week 11: Detroit (25)
Week 12: Baltimore (29)
Week 13: Cleveland (23)
Week 14: Houston (27)
Week 15: New England (16) or St. Louis (6)
Fantasy Super bowl - Week 16: Arizona (30)

Depending on whether we see the 2001 or 2002 Rams, this schedule is either great or off the charts. Ten of the sixteen games are against awful defenses, in the bottom quarter of the league; in the middle is an eight week stretch against offenses all ranked in the twenties. Three of the first four weeks, your opponent will be a team that finished in the bottom four in offense last season. The icing on the cake? Playing Arizona in your fantasy Super Bowl. With multiple games against Houston and Arizona, the Jaguars and Seahawks combination goes together like Joe Bryant and VBD!

Alternate Combinations
Let's say you have a Seahawks or Jaguars homer in your league. There is still room to recover, if you can grab either one of those sleeper defenses. For reference:

• Seattle combines well with San Francisco, Oakland, Indianapolis and Arizona.
• Jacksonville also works nicely with Tennessee, Buffalo, Detroit and New Orleans.

Defensive Team By Committee may be the tool that puts you over the top in your league. If you can't draft Tampa Bay, don't worry about it-Seattle and Jacksonville late could give you very similar production.