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Footballguys Daily Email - Volume 10, Issue 136 (Wednesday, September 2nd)

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Hi Folks,

Good Thursday to you. Wild day here at the Bryant house as my 10 year old had his tonsils taken out this morning. No fun but he was a trooper. On the Football front, tons of new content for you (does it ever stop?) and lots of news and notes. Let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

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D. Training Camp Update #5 - 38 pages of goodness
Another ridiculous edition of our Training Camp Updates. It's 38 pages of everything you need to know about every team and every situation that's in question. Read half of this and be the most informed guy in the room. Great job again by our Bob Henry, Jason Wood and staff.

E. 163 Cheatsheets
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F. New Projections
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G. Expert Rankings - Redraft, Dynasty & Rookie
We know this is crunch time for many of your drafts and we know you want the latest rankings from all our staff guys. Here they are.

H. Projection Tweaks
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I. RETURNERGUYS – 2009 Preseason Edition
Our Mike Herman is as unique a writers as we have. He's back again this season with another edition of Returnerguys. Let the other guys give you a paragraph on why Adrian Peterson is the best RB. We'll give you all that plus three pages on who's returning kicks...

J. The Big Picture: 2009 Edition, version 7 (September 1st)
Everything you need to know about the NFL on a color coded matrix in one document. Only at Footballguys.com. Thanks Mike Herman.

K. Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel Application
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L. Injury Update
Our Injury Expert, Mark Wimer with a rundown on every player that's battling with or battling back from an injury and how they're doing with it. A must read.

M. My Fantasy League Import Application
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We'll be giving away a 2010 Footballguys Subscription on this one. Doug loves coming up with fun contests and his are always a lot of fun. Enjoy.

O. Draft Dominator Application
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P. Projections Dominator Application
You know the drill - new detailed stat projections means a new Projections Dominator App. Dig in.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

1. NE - WR Wes Welker could miss Week 1
2. DAL - RB Felix Jones to see more time in red zone
3. CLE - Mangini suggests rotation at #2 wide receiver
4. CIN - WR Chad Ochocinco showing signs of resurgence
5. OAK - Cable will name starter at RB next week
6. BAL - Harbaugh calls TE Todd Heap a 'playmaker'
7. CHI - Bears have expressed interest in WR Matt Jones
8. DEN - Not having discussions about WR Brandon Marshall
9. CAR - RB Jonathan Stewart misses practice Wednesday
10. BAL - TE Todd Heap on the comeback trail
11. SF - Offense will be run-heavy this season
12. NE - QB Tom Brady’s status for preseason finale unknown
13. KC - QB Brodie Croyle working with first team
14. ARI - QB Matt Leinart has sore throwing shoulder
15. TEN - WR Nate Washington taking it slow
16. ATL - RB Jerious Norwood will be held out of Thursday's game as precaution
17. OAK - RB Justin Fargas will sit Thursday, but be ready for season opener
18. DET - QB Matthew Stafford more aggressive than QB Daunte Culpepper
19. DAL - WR Roy Williams practices Wednesday
20. STL - WR Laurent Robinson one of the starting WRs
21. TEN - Titans scheduled to work out WR Matt Jones Thursday
22. PHI - Expect decision on QB Michael Vick by Saturday
23. DEN - RB Knowshon Moreno may play Thursday
24. GB - QB Aaron Rodgers expected to make very brief appearance Thursday
25. HOU - RB Arian Foster to see extended playing time
26. IND - How many QBs to keep?
27. MIA - RB Ricky Williams contract update
28. NE - RB Laurence Maroney still looks tentative at the line
29. NE - RB Fred Taylor to play a key role

NE - WR Wes Welker could miss Week 1

Source: Mark Miller - Yahoo! Sports

The NFL Network reports New England Patriots WR Wes Welker (undisclosed) could miss the team's Week 1 game.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Welker's injury, whatever it is, has been under the radar all preseason, which is exactly how Bill Belichick likes it. Former college QB Julian Edelman has looked like a natural in Welker's role at times, and he could be a surprise week 1 star vs. Buffalo if Welker has to rest whatever it is that's ailing him.

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DAL - RB Felix Jones to see more time in red zone

Source: Tim MacMahon - The Dallas Morning News

Tim MacMahon, of The Dallas Morning News, reports Dallas Cowboys RB Felix Jones could see additional time in the red zone this season. RB Marion Barber III has earned the majority of work in the red zone over the past three season. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett said, "We love Marion down in the red zone. He's got a great track record. But obviously Felix can run down there as well. He's proven that he can do that. He's proven that he can run between the tackles."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Jones is starting to go as high as the sixth round in some drafts. He's part of a tier of explosive limited-touch backs like Leon Washington and Darren Sproles.

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CLE - Mangini suggests rotation at #2 wide receiver

Source: Mary Kay Cabot - the Cleveland Plain Dealer

Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports that the Browns may not have a true #2 wide receiver. "I don't know if it has to necessarily be 'this is number two, this is number three, this is number four,'" said Mangini. "Sometimes, you rotate guys through and depending on roles on special teams, depending on matchups, you could have all different starters throughout the course of the year."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

You shouldn't be looking for fantasy value because the Browns offense doesn't look promising, but this especially puts the kibosh on any fantasy threat emerging opposite Braylon Edwards.

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CIN - WR Chad Ochocinco showing signs of resurgence

Source: Alex Marvez - FOXSports.com

Alex Marvez, of FOXSports.com, reports that Cincinnati WR Chad Ochocinco is showing signs of a career resurgence. According to Ochocinco, the "old Chad" is back "10 times more than before."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

We would still be wary of drafting Ochocinco before the mid-to-late third round, if not later, because Chris Henry has also emerged this offseason, and Laveranues Coles was also added to catch the short and intermediate routes that TJ Houshmandzadeh was so good at during his time with the Bengals. The Bengals offensive line could also let Carson Palmer down and not give him time to find Ochocinco on deep routes.

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OAK - Cable will name starter at RB next week

Source: Jerry McDonald - InsideBayArea.com

Jerry McDonald, of InsideBayArea.com, reports that Raiders head coach Tom Cable said he would name a starter at RB next week.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Whether or not it's Darren McFadden, McDonald and other Raiders beat writers have speculated that McFadden and Bush will become the primary members of the backfield, and Fargas will be phased out, so you should weight the players accordingly when making up your draft board.

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BAL - Harbaugh calls TE Todd Heap a 'playmaker'

Source: Aaron Wilson - the Carroll County Times

Aaron Wilson, of the Carroll County Times, reports that TE Todd Heap was called a playmaker that could help offset the lack of a big receiver by Ravens head coach John Harbaugh. "I don't know if it would end the talk about not having a big-name receiver, but maybe it would cut down on the talk," Harbaugh said. "It gives you another playmaker in the mix. We can spread the ball around pretty well and Joe has proven he can spread it around. Todd has really worked hard to get to the point he's at right now. That helps us." Wilson added that Heap's TD catch and overall game vs. the Panthers on Saturday, August 30 could be "the strongest sign yet" that Heap's receiving numbers will go up this year.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

This is the second recent report that points to Heap as a bigger part of the Ravens passing game this year. He could be one of the steals of the draft at TE if he is even 75% of what he was in his prime.

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CHI - Bears have expressed interest in WR Matt Jones

Source: Adam Schefter - ESPN

Adam Schefter, of ESPN, reports the Chicago Bears have expressed interest in unrestricted free-agent WR Matt Jones (Jaguars).

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Wow, we get to the end of the preseason and all of a sudden there's a demand for Matt Jones! Any of the team's interested (Titans, Cowboys, Bears) make a lot of sense for the big veteran wideout. The Bears have one of the least exciting WR corps in the game today. There is some talent on the roster behind Devin Hester, but it is all unproven up to this point. Jones is a veteran that could become a consistent (and favorite) target of Jay Cutler.

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DEN - Not having discussions about WR Brandon Marshall

Source: Frank Schwab - the Colorado Springs Gazette

Frank Schwab, of the Colorado Springs Gazette, reports Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels said the Broncos are not having trade discussions with any team about WR Brandon Marshall. McDaniels said the team is looking forward to having Marshall suit up for them Week 1.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Broncos don't want Brandon Marshall to think that he can pout his way out of Denver. The sooner he accepts the fact that he'll be a Bronco in 2009, the sooner he can stop being a malcontent and get in the lineup.

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CAR - RB Jonathan Stewart misses practice Wednesday

Source: Steve Reed - CBSSports.com

CBSSports.com reports Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (Achilles') did not participate in practice Wednesday, Sept. 2. He likely will not play in the team's final preseason game Thursday, Sept. 3.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Another day, another missed practice by Stewart. Fantasy owners (especially DeAngelo Williams owners) should take a long look at rookie Mike Goodson in the later rounds of their draft. Stewart may be bothered by this injury all year, and Goodson has proven to be such a playmaker that the Panthers will get him the ball in a number of ways. If DeAngelo Williams were to go down with injury, Goodson could step right in and be an every week fantasy starter.

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BAL - TE Todd Heap on the comeback trail

Source: Mike Preston - the Baltimore Sun

Mike Preston, of the Baltimore Sun, reports that TE Todd Heap could be the big-body receiver the Ravens need to work the middle of the field. Preston reports that Heap has completely rehabbed the back injury that limited him the playoffs. "It's been a long offseason, and I've battled through a lot," said Heap. "Coming out of last year when I played injured in the playoffs took its toll on me. I've never had a back injury, and those things are kind of funny. It was serious and tough just going through daily routines. I had a hard time just sleeping.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Heap is a fine #2 TE in PPR leagues. He has looked a lot more like the Heap of old in the preseason, and Cam Cameron should open up the offense for Joe Flacco in his second-year. Don't hesitate to pounce on Heap on the waiver wire if he opens big against Kansas City.

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SF - Offense will be run-heavy this season

Source: Mike Sando - ESPN.com

Mike Sando, of ESPN.com, reports San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye said Tuesday, Sept. 1, that the team's offense will strive for a 60-40 ratio of runs to passes this season. The 49ers ran the football 41.3 percent of the time last season under offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

This ratio makes a lot of sense, for many reasons, and if the 49ers defense can play well we could see this run-heavy offense in full effect. Frank Gore is the engine to this offense, and a ball control offense will chew up the play clock, open things up for the passing game, which will in turn make life easier for Shaun Hill. To keep Gore fresh and injury free, the 49ers will rotate in rookie Glenn Coffee from time to time.

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NE - QB Tom Brady’s status for preseason finale unknown

Source:

NFL.com reports New England Patriots QB Tom Brady’s (shoulder) status for the team’s preseason finale Thursday, Sept. 3, remains unknown. Brady practiced Tuesday, Sept. 1.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Like many teams, the Patriots don't like to use their starters very much in the final preseason game. Getting coach Belichick to talk about injuries is about as difficult as breaking into Ft. Knox, so we won't know how bad the injury really is, or how Brady is recovering. Brady was back to throwing in practice on Tuesday, so he should be ready to go by week 1 of the regular season. In the meantime, the Patriots are going to get extended looks at Brady's backups, Andrew Walter and Brian Hoyer.

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KC - QB Brodie Croyle working with first team

Source: Bob Gretz - CBSSports.com

CBSSports.com reports Kansas City Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle has been getting nearly all of the practice reps with the first-team offense while QB Matt Cassel (knee) has been out of practice.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

This conflicts with Adam Teicher from the Kansas City Star's report that Thigpen took most of the first-team snaps. Croyle seems to be a better fit for Todd Haley's offense, so we think he'd be more likely to start week 1 vs. Baltimore if Matt Cassel can't go.

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ARI - QB Matt Leinart has sore throwing shoulder

Source: Kent Somers - the Arizona Republic

Kent Somers, of the Arizona Republic, reports that QB Matt Leinart has a sore throwing shoulder from an injury suffered last week vs. the Packers, but that the injury is not serious and head coach Ken Whisenhunt thinks there might be a benefit to Leinart playing through it.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Somers warns that whether Leinart plays this week is not a referendum on his toughness, but we think it's odd for a head coach to call attention to a fourth-year player getting a benefit from playing hurt.

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TEN - WR Nate Washington taking it slow

Source: Jim Wyatt - the Nashville Tennessean

Jim Wyatt, of the Nashville Tennessean, reports that he doesn't expect WR Nate Washington to be ready for the season opener on Thursday, September 10 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. "I think for the most part the coaches and the training staff pretty much know where I'm at and how good I am feeling or how bad the outcome of it may be if they rush me back," Washington said. "I am just going to continue to do what they tell me to do and everything they tell me to do I am going to try and do two times better."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Speed receivers are the most prone to aggravating hamstring injuries, so it makes sense for the team and Washington to be careful with this injury. Washington will likely miss the chance to face his old mates, but he mentioned that there's a possibility that the teams will meet again in the playoffs.

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ATL - RB Jerious Norwood will be held out of Thursday's game as precaution

Source: John Manasso - AtlantaFalcons.com

John Manasso, of AtlantaFalcons.com, reports that RB Jerious Norwood will be held of the preseason finale against the Baltimore Ravens as a precaution because he is recovering from head and leg injuries.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Norwood's injuries are not serious, but this is a good reminder of his fragility. Don't buy into any arguments that knock down Michael Turner's value because of Norwood taking away an increased amount of touches this year.

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OAK - RB Justin Fargas will sit Thursday, but be ready for season opener

Source: Jerry McDonald - InsideBayArea.com

Jerry McDonald, of InsideBayArea.com, reports that Oakland RB Justin Fargas's hamstring is still too sore for him to play on Thursday, September 3, but that head coach Tom Cable said Fargas could go if there was a game on Sunday, and that he will certainly play in the season opener against San Diego.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Fargas has been injury-prone in the past, and a hamstring is not a good injury for speedy runner like him to carry into the regular season. There was already writing on the wall that Fargas's role would be reduced this year, but this development could accelerate his decline with the Raiders.

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DET - QB Matthew Stafford more aggressive than QB Daunte Culpepper

Source: Tom Kowalski - mlive.com

Tom Kowalski, of mlive.com, reports that Lions QB Matthew Stafford is more aggressive than Daunte Culpepper, and that Stafford is "in love with his arm, and he wants to take it for a test drive whenever he can." Kowalski added, "I think you're going to see him going downfield to Calvin Johnson, even when a cornerback thinks that he has great coverage on him."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

We expected this kind of talk from the moment Stafford was drafted. He also looked for the huge gain when the play broke down at Georgia, and he has the best jumpball receiver in the league to go after his 60-yard bombs off of his back foot on the run. Johnson could put up Randy Moss-type numbers once Stafford is up to speed.

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DAL - WR Roy Williams practices Wednesday

Source: Tim MacMahon - The Dallas Morning News

Tim MacMahon, of The Dallas Morning News, reports Dallas Cowboys WR Roy Williams (shoulder) participated in practice Wednesday, Sept. 2.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

You can move Williams back to where he was on your boards before his shoulder injury scare, but that shouldn't be too high. He's never going to live up to the immense potential he had coming out of Texas.

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STL - WR Laurent Robinson one of the starting WRs

Source: Bill Coats - the St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Bill Coats, of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, reports St. Louis Rams WR Laurent Robinson will start at wide receiver opposite WR Donnie Avery to begin the regular season.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Keenan Burton was expected to be the starter before the Rams traded for Laurent Robinson from the Falcons. Robinson is a talented player, but has been injury prone during his short time in the NFL. If healthy, he could really help this inexperienced WR corps, even though the Rams want to be a run heavy team in 2009.

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TEN - Titans scheduled to work out WR Matt Jones Thursday

Source: Brad Biggs - the National Football Post

Brad Biggs, of the National Football Post, reports the Tennessee Titans are scheduled to work out unrestricted free-agent WR Matt Jones (Jaguars) Thursday, Sept. 3.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Teams have stayed away from Jones because his off field antics make Dr. Rockzo look like Mary Poppins. In all seriousness, the Titans could be looking for some help at wideout because of the injury to Nate Washington. Jones is a veteran, and actually seemed to be finally playing up to his potential in 2008.

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PHI - Expect decision on QB Michael Vick by Saturday

Source: Sal Paolantonio - ESPN

Sal Paolantonio, of ESPN, reports the Philadelphia Eagles expect NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to make a decision on QB Michael Vick's full instatement by Saturday, Sept. 5, according to league sources. Goodell and Vick are expected to meet soon, according to a league source.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

It is widely believed that commissioner Roger Goodell will let Vick come back during week three of the regular season, even though he could suspend him until week six. Depending on the commissioner's ruling, we could see A.J. Feeley dealt as the Eagles don't want to carry four quarterbacks.

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DEN - RB Knowshon Moreno may play Thursday

Source: Mike Chambers - The Denver Post

Mike Chambers, of The Denver Post, reports Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno (knee) may be able to play in the team's final preseason game Thursday, Sept. 3.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Coach McDaniels said that Moreno would be capable of playing, but he didn't know if it was the smartest option. The team will examine his health, and then make a decision as to whether or not he'll play. With the regular season opener less than two weeks away, the Broncos could decide to keep Moreno on the shelf until then.

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GB - QB Aaron Rodgers expected to make very brief appearance Thursday

Source: Pete Dougherty - The Green Bay Press-Gazette

Pete Dougherty, of The Green Bay Press-Gazette, reports Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to play only one series in the team's final preseason game Thursday, Sept. 3.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

An opportunity will be there for backup quarterback Brian Brohm, who should see a majority of the snaps in the preseason finale because of Matt Flynn's shoulder injury.

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HOU - RB Arian Foster to see extended playing time

Source: John McClain - the Houston Chronicle

John McClain, from the Houston Chronicle, notes rookie running back Arian Foster had a 9-yard run against Minnesota and did a good job of picking up the blitz. "He was a bright spot," coach Gary Kubiak said. "He's a player that's on the bubble. He helped himself (against the Vikings). He's going to play a great deal Friday."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Foster was an undrafted free agent out of Tennessee, but he has the skill set to stick around in the NFL, especially on a team like Houston. Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, and Ryan Moats will make the team, but Foster could have value as a backup to Chris Brown. Moats is very Slaton-like, but could not be counted on as a short-yardage and goalline runner. Foster is not as fast or athletic as Brown, but he's big and runs with good balance, vision, and power.

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IND - How many QBs to keep?

Source: Tom James - the Tribune-Star

Tom James, from the Tribune-Star, asks how many quarterbacks will the Colts keep, two or three? When it comes to the number of quarterbacks that the Indianapolis Colts will end up keeping during the regular season, that's the question that head coach Jim Caldwell and team president Bill Polian must ultimately answer.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Colts have rarely kept three quarterbacks on the roster during Peyton Manning's tenure, but that could change depending on the play of Curtis Painter. The rookie from Purdue has been efficient and effective in the preseason while Jim Sorgi has been out with a hamstring injury. Because of the way he's been playing it may be difficult for the Colts to cut him and slide him through to the practice squad. Painter and Sorgi will get extended playing time in the Colts preseason finale, and that could help the team make a final decision.

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MIA - RB Ricky Williams contract update

Source: ESPN.com

ESPN.com reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams will earn a base salary of $4.35 million in 2010 as part of a one-year contract extension he signed.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

After he retires Williams plans on going back to school, getting his undergraduate degree, and then applying to medical school. A source close to Williams did say that Ricky could change his mind, and return to the game if he has a productive season. With Ricky Williams, you just never know.

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NE - RB Laurence Maroney still looks tentative at the line

Source: Karen Guregian - The Boston Herald

Karen Guregian, of The Boston Herald, reports New England Patriots RB Laurence Maroney still looks tentative at the line, but has made a positive impression with his improved skills as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Maroney is still a fine late-round flier because he's the only RB on the Pats roster under 30, but don't expect him to play a big role right away.

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NE - RB Fred Taylor to play a key role

Source: Karen Guregian - The Boston Herald

Karen Guregian, of The Boston Herald, reports New England Patriots RB Fred Taylor has not done anything to kill the thought he will play a key role in the Patriots' ground game in 2009.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Taylor is going in the double digit rounds, even though he's got a decent shot of going for over 800 rushing yards and 10 TDs. Take advantage, especially in non-PPR leagues.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading.

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Have a great day and we'll see you tomorrow with the update.

J