A VBD primer
What does VBD stand for?VBD stands for "value based drafting."
What is VBD all about?I'm just going to give a brief description here. If you want a more extensive explanation, check out this article by Joe Bryant, the man who popularized VBD.For my purposes, VBD is a method of comparing the performances of players who play different positions and players who played in different eras. The basic idea is this: a player derives value by being better than the player he'd be replaced with if he dropped off the face of the earth. Suppose you had Kurt Warner on your fantasy team last year. He was obviously quite valuable to you, as he scored a lot of fantasy points. But what if he had torn his ACL on the first play of week 1? Who would you have replaced him with? Probably someone like Mark Brunell or Jake Plummer or Kerry Collins. You probably had someone like this as your backup. If not, you could probably have traded a backup or two for a QB of that quality. Anyway, Warner's value to you last year was not the number of fantasy points he scored. It was the number of fantasy points he scored that his replacement wouldn't have. Let's assume, just for the sake of definiteness, that the replacement would have been Plummer. Plummer scored 271 fantasy points last year while Warner scored 392. Hence, our estimate of Warner's value to you was 392 - 271, or 121 points. That's all there is to it. For every player every season, his value is defined to be his fantasy point total minus the fantasy point total of a theoretical replacement player. That last number (the fantasy point total of the theoretical replacement) is often referred to as the baseline.
What is the baseline?I've chosen baselines of the #12 QB, the #24 RB, the #30 WR, and the #12 TE of each season. Roughly, this corresponds to the worst starter in a "typical" fantasy league composed of 12 teams and in which a starting lineup consists of one QB, two RBs, 2.5 WRs, and 1 TE (I'm not sure whether 2 or 3 WR starters is more typical, so I just split the difference).
What's the scoring system?I keep throwing around the term "fantasy points," so I need to tell you how I'm defining that:Fantasy points = PassYd/25 + RushYd/10 + RecYd/10 + PassTD*6 + RushTD*6 + RecTD*6 - INT*3
Why use VBD?Two reasons.First, it makes comparisons possible between players at different positions. Qadry Ismail scored more fantasy points than Tony Gonzalez did last season, but that doesn't mean Ismail was more valuable to your fantasy team than Gonzo was. Why not? Because you probably had someone like James Thrash or Willie Jackson or Hines Ward or Chris Chambers on your bench. If Ismail goes down, you don't have to break the bank to find a replacement who's almost as good. If Gonzo goes down, you're looking at Jay Riemersma or Ernie Conwell. In short, Gonzalez is worth more than Ismail because the difference between Gonzo and Conwell is greater than the difference between Ismail and Chambers. That is, Ismail is more replaceable and hence less valuable. Second, VBD allows for sensible comparison between players of different eras. Especially for the passing game, the 70s were a very different time than the 90s. In 1974, for instance, Cliff Branch had 1092 receiving yards and 13 TDs. That seems like a pretty good year, but nothing too exciting. But now consider that Branch was easily the #1 WR in the NFL that year. The #2 man, Isaac Curtis, managed only 633 receiving yards and 10 TDs. The #30 WR was Jim Lash, who compiled a measly 631 yards and zero(!) TDs. Put in this context, Branch's 1974 season has more value than, say, Marvin Harrison's 2001 season, even though Harrison had a lot more yards and TDs. In short, Harrison was more easily replaceable in 2001 than Branch was in 1974. Similarly, Bert Jones' 3100 yards and 24 TDs in 1976 was a more valuable season than Scott Mitchell's 1995 (4300 yards, 32 TDs).
Anything else I should know?Not unless you're a real stickler for detail. If you are, then you should note that all seasons prior to 1978, when 14-game seasons were the norm, are multiplied by 16/14 to put them on equal footing with today's 16-gamers. The strike seasons of 1982 and 1987 have been adjusted similarly.
What was the best season of all-time?My data is only complete back to 1970, so I can't tell you how Jim Brown's or Sammy Baugh's best seasons measure up, but here are the top 100 seasons since 1970:
Passing Rushing Receiving
Name Year Yd TD Yd TD Yd TD VBD
-------------------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----
1. O.J. Simpson 1975 | 0 0 | 1817 16 | 426 7 | 282
2. Dan Marino 1984 | 5084 48 | -7 0 | 0 0 | 243
3. Terrell Davis 1998 | 0 0 | 2008 21 | 217 2 | 233
4. Emmitt Smith 1995 | 0 0 | 1773 25 | 375 0 | 225
5. Chuck Foreman 1975 | 0 0 | 1070 13 | 691 9 | 220
6. Walter Payton 1977 | 0 0 | 1852 14 | 269 2 | 218
7. Jerry Rice 1987 | 0 0 | 51 1 | 1078 22 | 216
8. Marshall Faulk 2000 | 0 0 | 1359 18 | 830 8 | 216
9. Dan Marino 1986 | 4746 44 | -3 0 | 0 0 | 210
10. Emmitt Smith 1992 | 0 0 | 1713 18 | 335 1 | 209
11. Steve Young 1994 | 3969 35 | 293 7 | 0 0 | 208
12. Marshall Faulk 2001 | 0 0 | 1382 12 | 765 9 | 206
13. Marcus Allen 1982 | 0 0 | 697 11 | 401 3 | 203
14. Steve Young 1998 | 4170 36 | 454 6 | 0 0 | 200
15. Randall Cunningham 1990 | 3466 30 | 942 5 | 0 0 | 199
16. Brett Favre 1996 | 3899 39 | 136 2 | 0 0 | 197
17. Eric Dickerson 1983 | 0 0 | 1808 18 | 404 2 | 191
18. Wes Chandler 1982 | 0 0 | 32 0 | 1032 9 | 190
19. Barry Sanders 1997 | 0 0 | 2053 11 | 305 3 | 188
20. Emmitt Smith 1994 | 0 0 | 1484 21 | 341 1 | 187
21. Edgerrin James 1999 | 0 0 | 1553 13 | 586 4 | 186
22. Jamal Anderson 1998 | 0 0 | 1846 14 | 319 2 | 185
23. Marshall Faulk 1999 | 0 0 | 1381 7 | 1048 5 | 185
24. James Wilder 1984 | 16 1 | 1544 13 | 685 0 | 182
25. Eric Dickerson 1984 | 0 0 | 2105 14 | 139 0 | 180
26. Kurt Warner 1999 | 4353 41 | 92 1 | 0 0 | 179
27. Edgerrin James 2000 | 0 0 | 1709 13 | 594 5 | 179
28. O.J. Simpson 1973 | 0 0 | 2003 12 | 70 0 | 177
29. Marcus Allen 1984 | 0 0 | 1168 13 | 758 5 | 175
30. Warren Moon 1990 | 4689 33 | 215 2 | 0 0 | 175
31. Brett Favre 1995 | 4413 38 | 181 3 | 0 0 | 174
32. Thurman Thomas 1992 | 0 0 | 1487 9 | 626 3 | 174
33. Dalton Hilliard 1989 | 35 1 | 1262 13 | 514 5 | 173
34. Daunte Culpepper 2000 | 3937 33 | 470 7 | 0 0 | 171
35. Otis Armstrong 1974 | 0 0 | 1407 9 | 405 3 | 170
36. Lydell Mitchell 1975 | 0 0 | 1193 11 | 544 4 | 169
37. Barry Sanders 1991 | 0 0 | 1548 16 | 307 1 | 169
38. Jeff Garcia 2000 | 4278 31 | 415 4 | 0 0 | 167
39. Steve Young 1992 | 3465 25 | 537 4 | 0 0 | 166
40. Marcus Allen 1985 | 0 0 | 1759 11 | 555 3 | 165
41. Jerry Rice 1995 | 0 0 | 36 1 | 1848 15 | 165
42. Wendell Tyler 1982 | 0 0 | 564 9 | 375 4 | 164
43. Terrell Davis 1997 | 0 0 | 1750 15 | 287 0 | 162
44. Billy Sims 1980 | 0 0 | 1303 13 | 621 3 | 161
45. Joe Montana 1987 | 3054 31 | 141 1 | 0 0 | 161
46. Barry Foster 1992 | 0 0 | 1690 11 | 344 0 | 160
47. Vinny Testaverde 1996 | 4177 33 | 188 2 | 0 0 | 160
48. Jerry Rice 1986 | 0 0 | 72 1 | 1570 15 | 158
49. Thurman Thomas 1991 | 0 0 | 1407 7 | 631 5 | 157
50. Steve Beuerlein 1999 | 4436 36 | 124 2 | 0 0 | 156
51. Marshall Faulk 1998 | 0 0 | 1319 6 | 908 4 | 155
52. Terry Allen 1996 | 0 0 | 1353 21 | 194 0 | 155
53. Eric Dickerson 1988 | 0 0 | 1659 14 | 377 1 | 154
54. Steve Young 1993 | 4023 29 | 407 2 | 0 0 | 153
55. Chuck Foreman 1976 | 0 0 | 1155 13 | 567 1 | 152
56. Randall Cunningham 1987 | 2786 23 | 505 3 | 0 0 | 151
57. Bert Jones 1976 | 3104 24 | 214 2 | 0 0 | 151
58. Barry Sanders 1990 | 0 0 | 1304 13 | 480 3 | 150
59. Terrell Davis 1996 | 0 0 | 1538 13 | 310 2 | 149
60. Earl Campbell 1980 | 0 0 | 1934 13 | 47 0 | 149
61. Fran Tarkenton 1975 | 2994 25 | 108 2 | 0 0 | 148
62. Randall Cunningham 1988 | 3808 24 | 624 6 | 0 0 | 148
63. Terry Allen 1992 | 0 0 | 1201 13 | 478 2 | 148
64. Earl Campbell 1979 | 0 0 | 1697 19 | 94 0 | 147
65. Jerry Rice 1993 | 0 0 | 69 1 | 1503 15 | 147
66. Roger Craig 1985 | 0 0 | 1050 9 | 1016 6 | 146
67. Walter Payton 1984 | 0 0 | 1684 11 | 368 0 | 146
68. Mark Clayton 1984 | 0 0 | 35 0 | 1389 18 | 145
69. Ken Anderson 1975 | 3169 21 | 188 2 | 0 0 | 145
70. Jerry Rice 1989 | 0 0 | 33 0 | 1483 17 | 145
71. Neil Lomax 1984 | 4614 28 | 184 3 | 0 0 | 144
72. Jim Kelly 1991 | 3844 33 | 45 1 | 0 0 | 144
73. Thurman Thomas 1989 | 0 0 | 1244 6 | 669 6 | 143
74. Walter Payton 1979 | 0 0 | 1610 14 | 313 2 | 142
75. Priest Holmes 2001 | 0 0 | 1555 8 | 614 2 | 142
76. Cliff Branch 1974 | 0 0 | 0 0 | 1092 13 | 142
77. Brett Favre 1994 | 3882 33 | 202 2 | 0 0 | 141
78. Emmitt Smith 1991 | 0 0 | 1563 12 | 258 1 | 141
79. Neal Anderson 1989 | 0 0 | 1275 11 | 434 4 | 141
80. Jerry Rice 1994 | 0 0 | 93 2 | 1499 13 | 141
81. Chuck Foreman 1974 | 0 0 | 777 9 | 586 6 | 140
82. Barry Sanders 1989 | 0 0 | 1470 14 | 282 0 | 139
83. Fred Taylor 1998 | 0 0 | 1223 14 | 421 3 | 139
84. Wilbert Montgomery 1979 | 0 0 | 1512 9 | 494 5 | 139
85. Emmitt Smith 1993 | 0 0 | 1486 9 | 414 1 | 138
86. Isaac Bruce 1995 | 0 0 | 17 0 | 1781 13 | 138
87. Ricky Watters 1996 | 0 0 | 1411 13 | 444 0 | 138
88. Eric Dickerson 1986 | 15 1 | 1821 11 | 205 0 | 137
89. Ron Johnson 1972 | 0 0 | 1182 9 | 451 5 | 137
90. Garrison Hearst 1998 | 0 0 | 1570 7 | 535 2 | 137
91. Barry Sanders 1994 | 0 0 | 1883 7 | 283 1 | 137
92. Ron Johnson 1970 | 0 0 | 1027 8 | 487 4 | 136
93. Scott Mitchell 1995 | 4338 32 | 104 4 | 0 0 | 136
94. Thurman Thomas 1990 | 0 0 | 1297 11 | 532 2 | 136
95. William Andrews 1983 | 0 0 | 1567 7 | 609 4 | 134
96. Eddie George 2000 | 0 0 | 1507 14 | 453 2 | 133
97. Herman Moore 1995 | 0 0 | 0 0 | 1686 14 | 133
98. Billy Sims 1981 | 0 0 | 1437 13 | 451 2 | 133
99. Sterling Sharpe 1992 | 0 0 | 8 0 | 1461 13 | 132
100. Charles White 1987 | 0 0 | 1374 11 | 121 0 | 132
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