General Thoughts
One thing we haven’t talked about this year yet are the single game, “showdown” slates. But they have quickly become some of the most popular contests on both Fanduel and Draftkings. They are popular with the casual players and pros alike thanks to the huge prize pools they are generating. They have driven some of the best conversations this year with friends and Footballguys staff members. Winning a couple of GPPs along the way has helped as well.
For those that don’t know what these single-game slates are you build a team of 5 or 6 players, depending on the site, with the same rules that you would in other contests. You get a specific allocation of money to spend on the players you want to roster and if you outscore all other rosters you can win the tournament. The two major differences are there are no roster requirements. For example, you could roster two kickers if you would like. The other is you can choose one player where their points are multiplied by 1.5.
The game is simple since you are only dealing with a single game and a handful of players that are really in play each game. It’s easy to build lineups. You can make a couple in a matter of minutes. The best thing is you are always part of the action. Most of the game you are a big play or two away from making a huge jump up the standings and fortunes turn quickly. For me, it is probably one of my favorite game types these days and if you haven’t given it a try, I would recommend doing so for the SNF or MNF game!
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
QB
Lamar Jackson looks to be one of the chalkiest quarterbacks again this week. This even though both sites have aggressively priced him up this week and he is priced in a tier of his own. This higher pricing hasn’t deterred the public from wanting him in their lineups. Who can blame them as Jackson has now scored over 25 points in all but two games and 30 4 times! Every week there always seems to be a concern about if you should play Jackson. Last week it was the big point spread. I was worried that he might not run as much late in the game. In fact, he only played 77% of the snaps. But he had already scored 33 points, including 7 carries for 65 yards and a TD before being taken out. Earlier in the year, it was hard to stack him with anyone. But it turns out he has some options with Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, etc. all proving to be legitimate threats. He also runs more than enough to be a running back score on his own. So, you can just stack him with himself.
The question this week is it worth it to pay the highest price on the slate against an average defense like the Texans when we can play quarterbacks against our favorite defenses like the Buccaneers, Bengals, or Falcons. In this case, I think it absolutely makes sense. Jackson has been too good for too long to ignore. The Texans and DeShaun Watson will likely be able to keep the game close so Jackson will have to work hard all game and this game has the potential to shoot out. I don’t think I would play Jackson if I was building one lineup but he is probably one of my top exposures for the week.
RB
Dalvin Cook has seemingly been near the top of the ownership charts most of the year. Unfortunately, most of the year I have ignored him because I thought he was too high owned and two high priced. But here we are at week 11 and Cook has 9 games where he either scored a TD or rushed for 100 yards. He’s also picked up 5 or more targets in 6 of 10 games. Cook is clearly the centerpiece of the Vikings offense. With it looking like Thielen will miss another game the Vikings will again lean heavily on Cook.
But oddly enough Cook isn’t priced up like Christian McCaffrey or Lamar Jackson. His price is reasonable which is bringing even more people his way. His price is down from last week because of the difficult matchup against the Broncos. This should certainly give us pause as the Broncos are allowing only 4.0 yards and nearly a quarter of their yards allowed were to Leonard Fournette. But Cook is so ingrained in the offense that if the running game isn’t working they will get him more involved in the passing game. Sort of like Fournette! I like playing Cook this week, especially on Fanduel where he is only $8,600. I would certainly consider him in my single entry there and make him a part of my GPP plans on Draftkings.
WR
One of my favorite plays all year has been D.J. Moore. He has been cheap, under-owned, and for his price done quite well. He has surpassed 100 yards in two straight weeks and has had 8+ targets in every game but two. What Moore has failed to do is to have a huge slate breaking week as he only has one touchdown on the year. This is largely due to Christian McCaffrey’s awe-inspiring season as well as being attached to Kyle Allen at quarterback.
This week Moore has risen to one of his higher prices of the season, is still straddled with McCaffrey and Allen and is going to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. Is this just recency bias from two straight 100-yard games? Yes, that is partially correct but the biggest driver is a friendly matchup against the Falcons whom we have talked about a lot throughout the year. In case you have forgotten the Falcons rank 4th in passing yards allowed per attempt as well as points allowed per game. How’d that work out for the Saints last week though? I think Moore is one of the better values on the slate but his price tag and ownership are a bit high for me. For the first time in months, I would go underweight.
TE
Another player we have talked about a lot in this space is Darren Waller who gets to play against the previously mentioned Bengals. That’s about the only bright spot for Waller. Over the last three weeks, Waller has busted magnificently. In fact, his receiving yards for the last few weeks starting with the most recent is 40, 52, 11, 126, 39, 53 since he broke out with 134 in week 3. That hardly feels like it warrants chalk consideration.
But the matchup against Bengals is just that good. According to Austin Lee’s normalized strength of schedule the Bengals allow 14% more points to tight ends than would be expected which is 7th best and that is without their opponents having heavily targeted their tight ends. Something that we know the Raiders will do as Waller is their most heavily targeted player. I don’t love the way Waller’s targets have been trending but tight end is missing a lot of the big names this week. Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce are on MNF, go play the showdown slate! George Kittle is injured. I am certainly going to get some Waller and on Draftkings he is probably the chalky player I would most likely end up within a single entry.
Playing contrarian
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
Tom Brady hasn’t been very good this year. He has only surpassed 300 yards 4 times despite facing one of the easier schedules. But that has allowed him to be priced all the way down to the 9th most expensive quarterback, getting ownership under 5%, and playing the Eagles who has been a plus matchup all year. The Eagles have been playing well of late and should force the Patriots to keep their foot on the gas for the full game. This is a game that Brady should be able to put up a big score and push you up to the top of the leaderboard.
Marlon Mack let a lot of people down last week with only 74 yards on 19 carries against the pitiful Dolphins defense. Apparently, the crowd isn’t letting him forget it either as he is currently projected to be owned at 3%. Mack hasn’t had a big week since all the way back in week 1 where he went for 174 yards and a TD but he has been heavily involved in the offense all along with 20+ touches in every game since week 4. If Brissett plays or sits the Colts are going to want to rely on Mack again and there is certainly a better than 3% chance that he has a big game.
Two weeks ago no one knew who Christian Kirk was as he was in single-digit ownership every week. Last week he blew up for the slate busting 6-138-3 line as the chalkiest player on the slate against the Buccaneers. Now he has been completely forgotten again at 3% ownership against the same stingy 49ers defense that shut him down two weeks ago resulting in a stat line of 8 yards and 2 receptions. The 49ers defense is very good and this isn’t a play for the faint but Kirk is heavily involved in the Cardinals passing game with a team-high target on 28% of his snaps. If he can break a big play off of a target or two, he could lead you to a GPP win for a second straight week.
Zach Ertz has the name but it’s been Dallas Goedert who has been consistently producing with 4+ targets in each of his last 4 games as well as playing 71% of the team's snaps since getting fully healthy in week 5. If the game does stay competitive and Brady is in your lineup Goedert makes for an interesting player to stack up with Brady for a contrarian stack if you really like some of the chalky players mentioned above.
As always please send any questions or comments to Buzzard@footballguys.com or follow me on Twitter Follow @SteveBuzzard
