Money Talks: Week 10

Photo: Kevin Hoffman, USA Today Sports

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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.

Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.

ASSUMPTIONS

As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.

Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.

Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.

There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.

Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.

Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.

Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.

Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later.  Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season.  Shoot the lock off of that wallet.

Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up.  Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter.  Add players and handcuffs accordingly.

Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries!  This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire.  Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies.  Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.

Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves.  With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push.  Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.

Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet.  More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs.  Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.

Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 10 of the 2013 season:

BIG BUCKS

Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.

• Zac Stacy, RB, Rams ($505):  If he is still out there for some reason – fix that error and bid big for him.  He is a starter and will be the rest of the year, and he is producing big numbers. 
• Mike James, RB, Buccaneers ($275):  Mike James has taken over as the featured tailback for Tampa Bay, and there is no real reason to put Doug Martin back in the lineup (unless head coach Greg Schiano tries to save his job, if that is even possible).  James posted strong fantasy numbers against Seattle, so you can certainly see him as a solid RB2 with upside the rest of the season.
• Rashad Jennings, RB, Raiders ($225):  This just in – Darren McFadden is fragile.  Jennings stepped up and in for him against Philadelphia and produced over 100 total yards, but the game was close to garbage time for most of the contest for Oakland.  Starting tailbacks have value, regardless of how they produce numbers, and Jennings can run and catch effectively.  He can certainly help lineups in need of more RB help over the next few weeks with good matchups on the horizon (at Giants, home vs. Tennessee).
• Chris Ivory, RB, Jets ($225):  The Jets are back to running the ball, and doing it effectively.  Sure he was up against his old team and inspired to play well as the team captain for the game, but he does have great upside and value down the stretch after the Week 10 bye.
• Jay Cutler, QB, Bears ($203):  He is due back sooner rather than later and could play against Detroit this week.  Cutler is a QB1 in good matchups, which the Lions are.  Great pickup if he is available, and if you just lost Aaron Rodgers, bid even higher.
• Nick Foles, QB, Eagles ($202):  The price is high here only because we are late in the year and you might have some injury woes.  Foles is definitely going to cost you, but it is a little questionable if he will be worth it.  Desperate teams and times call for desperate measures, and Foles gets to carve up the Packers like Josh McCown did Monday night.   Don’t expect anything close to his Week 9 record performance, but Foles can be a solid QB2 with QB1 upside with good matchups.
• Andre Brown, RB, Giants ($202):  This is it – your last chance to get Brown before he suits up and returns to action for the Giants.  Brown could get eased into the lineup with him just getting back to action, but he should easily move ahead of both Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hillis in the New York backfield and see 20+ touches soon.

MEDIUM MONEY

Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.

• Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots ($185):  Same story as Andre Brown (back from IR, but Week 11) – but more upside.
• Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots ($179): Dobson is now the clear “X” starting wide receiver for Tom Brady, and the Patriots just put up a whopping 55 points last week.  Dobson is so far ahead of Kenbrell Thompson now that Thompson was a healthy scratch against Pittsburgh.   Grab Dobson if he is on the waiver wire, and quickly.
• Nate Burleson, WR, Lions ($177):  Detroit throws a ton, and a solid WR2 for the Lions has a ton of value.  Burleson is practicing and could be back in action as soon as this week.  Even if he takes one more week off, Burleson is a great value for November and December.
• Case Keenum, QB, Texans ($175):  The young quarterback looked great against the Colts until the air went out of Houston after they lost their head coach right before halftime.  Keenum brings much needed energy and excitement to the Texans’ passing attack, and he will continue to look deep and connect with Andre Johnson and other capable targets for Houston, especially with the running backs at less than full strength.
• Jake Locker, QB, Titans ($167):  No one thinks about Locker as a QB1, but the numbers can support that argument.  Tennessee has Jacksonville twice, Indianapolis twice, Oakland, Arizona and a probable shootout with Denver over the next seven weeks.  That screams good matchups nearly every week (possibly not Arizona, be cautious there) so add him as at least a solid QB2.
• Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders ($165):  Oakland is not exactly an offensive force, but Pryor can throw and run and does both enough to produce about 20 or more fantasy points a week, which makes him a QB1 candidate in most matchups.  With injuries around the league at quarterback, Pryor should be rostered even if just as an insurance policy.
• Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles ($165):  Cooper blew up last week thanks to Nick Foles’ dressing as Peyton Manning for Halloween in Week 9.  Cooper should return to normalcy, but until the bye weeks are over he remains a solid WR3/4 with upside in an offense that is back to producing big yards and point totals.
• Roddy White, WR, Falcons ($155):  If he is on your waiver wire, snap him up before everyone forgets that he is a free agent right before he gets back in the lineup.  White may not have big games right away with tough matchups in Week 10 (Seattle) and Week 11 (Tampa Bay – Revis Island), but Atlanta has great matchups in December to produce for playoff pushes.
• Tim Wright, TE, Buccaneers ($151, 225 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  A repeat from last week, especially after a touchdown last week.  Mike Williams is done for the year and the Buccaneers need receivers.  Greg Schiano knows Wright from Rutgers, and Wright is a fantastic move tight end and is a strong candidate to get a lot of targets as a possible WR2-type tight end.
• Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks ($151): Harvin is going to be in the Seattle lineup soon, and soon enough to help fantasy playoff teams.  Seattle has no need to rush him before he is ready, but when he is, he becomes the immediate top wideout and a WR1 threat once he is active again.  Get him on the cheap while you still can.
• James Starks, RB, Packers ($150):  Even with Eddie Lacy ahead of him, Starks is getting a big workload and finding the end zone.  With Aaron Rodgers out for at least a few weeks, Green Bay should run early and often with a two back approach.
• Shonn Greene, RB, Titans ($143):  Chris Johnson played inspired football in Week 9, but the Titans still want Shonn Green involved.  He is a solid flex RB right now and has upside if Johnson gets banged up.
• Mike Brown, WR, Jaguars ($135):  Jacksonville offers a lot of garbage time value for its wide receivers, and Brown is a guy you can snap up and plug in as a capable WR3 for Chad Henne to connect with 5-7 times a game.
• Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers ($125):  The Carolina backfield is crowded, but touchdowns are touchdowns – and Mike Tolbert has scored four weeks in a row.  Hard to argue with that value.
• Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens ($123): Baltimore is in desperate need for someone besides Torrey Smith to step up at wide receiver, and Brown is the top candidate.  He managed to shake loose to get open for two touchdowns against Cleveland last week, pushing his playing time and chances much higher.
• Donald Brown, RB, Colts ($122):  Lost in the Reggie Wayne done for the year news is that – very quietly – Indianapolis has made Donald Brown their top running back, almost ahead of Trent Richardson.  Brown gets at least 50% of the touches in the backfield and quite often more of the production.  He is a great and sneaky addition.
• Garrett Graham, TE, Texans ($120, 165 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  Graham is the go-to receiving tight end for Houston, and Case Keenum likes the big guy.  If you need a tight end, Graham offers TE2 with lower-end TE1 upside.
• Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers ($117): Another boom / bust wideout, Royal had a great game in Week 9 – but keep this in mind:  Royal grew up in the Washington, D.C. area and was super-hyped to have a good performance against his home town team.  Royal had lots of family in attendance, so it is no surprise that he was motivated to play extra hard.  Pick him up but don’t start him unless you have to, as he is far too risky on a weekly basis.
• Dennis Johnson, RB, Texans ($115):  Arian Foster and Ben Tate are both injured, which pushed Dennis Johnson up the depth chart in Week 9 to the second back after Foster left the game.  When Johnson was on the field, the speed and energy he brought to the Houston backfield was easily seen.  Johnson has great upside even if only one of the two top Houston backs is injured and he could emerge as a great fantasy value if both are sidelined.
• Lance Moore, WR, Saints ($115): With Marques Colston injured and now Darren Sproles at less than full strength, Moore should see more targets and offer WR3 value, especially in PPR leagues.
• Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Steelers ($115): Hard to argue with three touchdowns – but watch me.  Markus Wheaton is getting back to health and Pittsburgh was chasing New England on the scoreboard most of the day.  Cotchery has little upside aside from flex / bye week coverage.
• Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings ($111):  This pickup is a play on the injury to Kyle Rudolph.  The ball has to go somewhere, and Simpson was clicking early in the year with Christian Ponder.  He’s a gamble, but could pay off big.
• Griff Whalen, WR, Colts ($111): Whalen only had three catches in Week 9, but he did see nine targets from Andrew Luck, who just loves Griff Whalen.  Whalen should continue to improve and see more chances as teams focus on taking away T.Y. Hilton more.  Whalen has WR3/flex upside as a poor man’s version of Wes Welker for Indianapolis.
• Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Colts ($111):  If Heyward-Bey could just figure out how to catch, he would be dangerous.  He is the clear WR2 now for Indianapolis for the rest of the year and has crazy good speed, but that does no one any good if he cannot catch the ball.  A clear boom / bust wideout.
• Seneca Wallace, QB, Packers ($102):  On the one hand, the Packers have some very attractive wide receivers and James Jones is getting back to health.  On the other hand, Eddie Lacy and James Starks could run the ball 40+ times combined each week – and Seneca Wallace just isn’t that good.
• Robert Meachem, WR, Saints ($101): Similar to Lance Moore’s argument for value, but much more of a boom / bust guy.

CHUMP CHANGE

Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter. 

• EJ Manuel, QB, Bills ($99):  Manuel is a risky pickup with him just getting back to health and iffy wide receivers that are banged up too, but Manuel’s upside is nearly a QB1 in good matchups.  If you need a second or third quarterback or are really thin, consider adding him.
• Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers ($88): I will admit that I am a fan of Wheaton’s talent, but it will depend on if and when he gets an opportunity.  At least his finger is healed up now, but he will have to fight for playing time and targets.
• Jason Campbell, QB, Browns ($77):  A capable quarterback in good matchups, and a cheap pickup with Cleveland on a bye.  Campbell could be a decent fallback option with favorable home games coming up (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville).
• James Stewart, RB, Panthers ($57):  Stewart is back, but so what?  Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert dominate goal line work and Stewart battles both of them and DeAngelo Williams for work.  Rosterable? Yes.  Startable? No way.
• Mario Manningham, WR, 49ers ($55): Manningham will immediately become the second wide receiver in San Francisco when he gets back on the field, which could be very soon.  The 49ers just activated him off of the PUP list on November 4^th, so if you are in deep need of a boom / bust type wideout, consider a flyer pickup here.
• Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers ($55):  If you own Frank Gore, you better own Hunter for your playoff push.
• Darrel Young, RB, Washington ($25):  Keep calm here and do not overbid for the big fullback.  San Diego could not stop the fullback dive play from Washington in Week 9, and Young wound up with three goal line scores.  Do not expect a repeat performance of that stat line anytime soon.