The month that encompasses training camp and the first three weeks of the preseason is must-see TV for any fantasy football player. We come into the summer with a set of assumptions and beliefs about the NFL, and each successive day changes the landscape and forces us to re-examine our strategies and rankings going into our drafts. What do we think we know at this crucial juncture before the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year?
Chicago
QB: The third preseason game showed that Jay Cutler can indeed zero in someone other than Brandon Marshall, and his offensive line does seem to be improved. He’s still not among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks, but he has the potential to end up there by the end of the year. He’s a fine upside QB2.
RB: Few opinions seem to be more unanimous around the fantasy world as the sentiment that Matt Forte is primed for a big year. He should approach a career high in receptions and there are signs that he might not automatically yield to Michael Bush at the goal line. Forte is a target on either side of the 1/2 turn in PPR leagues….Bush has a better outlook than his late ADP would have you believe. He was battling through a shoulder injury last year, and he should get enough touches to have marginal flex value, with massive injury upside if the Bush we saw in 2012 wasn’t a true picture of where his talent is at right now. He’s one of my favorite late-round targets.
WR: Brandon Marshall’s complaints about his hip shouldn’t scare you off in the third round in PPR leagues (although I prefer to go Gronk/RB in that round), but the chance that the pass offense becomes more balanced in terms of target distribution is enough risk to avoid him in the second….Alshon Jeffery appears to be ready for a year two breakout as long as he gets the opportunity. He trained with Marshall all offseason, and he should get deep targets and some red zone love. Snatch him up if he’s still there in the 10th round or later….With Earl Bennett recovering another concussion and reportedly on the trade block, seventh-round rookie Marquess Wilson might not be that from a big role in the offense. He should be picked up in deep dynasty formats.
TE: Martellus Bennett hasn’t been targeted much at all in the preseason, and Marc Trestman’s offenses generally have not used the tight end as a prominent piece, but he has a high enough floor to still justify a TEBC pick in the 10th round or later.
Detroit
QB: Matthew Stafford barely played with Calvin Johnson, so it’s hard to say whether his connection with Reggie Bush was out of necessity or design, but it’s there for sure. Stafford might have a slightly better time of it this year with a more explosive short-range target, but he is still at risk of getting stalled out if he doesn’t adjust better to how defenses are challenging him by taking away downfield throws like they did last year. He’s one of my least favorite QB1s, but I’ll be fine with him as QB12.
RB: Reggie Bush is going to be projected as an RB1 in PPR leagues every week that he is on the field. This should be no surprise based on the Lions running back reception totals in the past, but it was confirmed for the fantasy world to see in the preseason. He shouldn’t be there in the third like he was earlier in the preseason….Joique Bell looks terrific and Mikel Leshoure never stood a chance to overtake him. Bell might have weekly flex value if he gets goal-line carries, and he’ll be able to come close to - if not equal - Bush’s production if he misses time….Leshoure isn’t worth drafting and it might be time to move on in shallow dynasty leagues.
WR: To Calvin or not to Calvin? That’s a big question in the first round this year. If Megatron converts a few of those “tackled at the 1” catches into scores this year while keeping his career-high level receptions and yards from 2012, he’ll justify the pick, but I still prefer Graham to Johnson if you are going non-RB in the first….Ryan Broyles’ feel-good story slowed down a bit when it came out that he had to be rested every third day in training camp. His allure as a 10th-12th target in PPR leagues is waning because you might not get Broyles at his top abilities until later in the season, and Reggie Bush will be the de facto #2 receiver….No other receivers looked like potential deep sleepers in this offense despite the high volume of throws that it offers.
TE: Brandon Pettigrew might be lighter and more driven in an attempt to erase the memories of a drop-filled 2012, but his preseason performance only reminded us how he can turn a target-rich role into disappointment yet again. He’s an adequate “high floor” TE2 in a TEBC approach, but it looks like more of the same old, same old from this underachiever in the passing game.
Green Bay
QB: Between the offensive line turnover and the addition of a solid goal-line option in the backfield, I’m not taking Aaron Rodgers as QB1, and maybe not even as QB2. The Packers are content to win ugly, and Rodgers was underperforming in fantasy leagues until the playoff weeks last year. If you want to break the seal at quarterback, take Brees instead….Vince Young actually has bye/injury/emergency value if he does get to start any games this year. He looks as athletic as ever and his rushing stats alone would make him a top 20 option.
RB: Mike McCarthy was “visibly downtrodden” when DuJuan Harris went down, which is a sign of how much Harris was going to be used if he had stayed healthy, rendering Lacy a disappointment. While Lacy’s situation just got a lot better, it’s also not the most comforting fact that he didn’t exactly “win” the feature back job. I would still go with David Wilson or Frank Gore over Lacy in the third round….There is no clear candidate to pick up Lacy goes down, and it might be just like last year (heck, it’s some of the same backs) when no Packers back gave us predictable value after the #1 (Cedric Benson) went down….I was a big Johnathan Franklin fan coming out of UCLA, but he’s not ready for prime time yet. I’ll be ready to make a preemptive pickup if we start to hear good buzz and Lacy is struggling.
WR: Jordy Nelson has been out, but this was not a structural repair to his knee, and you should still be drafting him as a value low WR1/high WR2 in the fourth. Consider it a gift if you get him in the fifth….Randall Cobb is tough to love until the fourth round in PPR leagues because he is coming in with a known bicep injury. I wouldn’t grab him before Nelson….James Jones could be a value if he can keep up his crazy touchdown rate or up his reception total. I won’t argue against taking him in the 7th or 8th, but I prefer options with a higher ceiling….Jarrett Boykin is set up as the clear WR4, and he is a name to remember if injuries strike this group.
TE: Jermichael Finley has the talent and situation to be a mid TE1, but I have a nagging feeling that he is still only a secondary target in this offense, and he could still take a back seat to Jones and Lacy in the red zone. He’s only going to end up on one of my teams if I can get him in the 10th or later.
Minnesota
QB: Christian Ponder is very definition of a game-manager, so I wouldn’t go looking for big production from the passing game here. If he improves a bit, it could help Kyle Rudolph and Adrian Peterson, but he won’t be rosterable.
RB: Take Adrian Peterson if you draw the #1 draft slot.
WR: Greg Jennings is going to have trouble putting up consistent numbers if Ponder isn’t improved. Jerome Simpson isn’t going to scare anyone on the other side, and let us also remember than Jennings has had trouble staying on the field and playing at his usual level when he has returned from injuries the last few years. I can’t get behind taking him until the 8th or 9th round….Cordarrelle Patterson is still worth that pick in the 13th or later on the chance that he does so much with his limited early touches that he forces his way into a big role in this offense.
TE: We haven’t seen clear signs that Rudolph has become the superhuman tight end he was when he won the Pro Bowl MVP, but his arrow is still pointing up in his third season. He might end up being the best of the mid TE1 options, especially in non-PPR leagues. Rudolph still won’t approach the Graham/Gronk or even the Gonzo/Witten level of value with Ponder as his quarterback.