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For the past few weeks we've been focusing on the dynasty impact of this season's biggest surprises. Some of those have been negative, but this week all of them will be. A lot of people think looking at the second half can be more predictive than an entire season's worth of work, so we're going to limit the scope of the article to the biggest disappointments since Week 9. Warning: If you missed the playoffs or were recently eliminated, some of these names may induce wicked flashbacks.
Peyton Manning's skills have finally begun to diminish to the point where he shouldn't be viewed as an elite fantasy quarterback in 2015. This should be the least controversial statement of them all. Manning has been QB8 on a per game basis in the second half and even worse over the last month. He'll be 39 years old when next season starts and likely has 1-2 years of QB1 production left at the very most.
Verdict: Believe it. Manning has eight touchdowns in his last five starts. That's not a terrible number, but it's not the number of an elite quarterback. Want an even better sign? The Broncos have transformed themselves into a running team in the middle of the season. Manning's attempts, passing yards and touchdowns are all down, but the Broncos are still winning. If they're going to play with a quarterback that's near 40 years old we're going to see a lot more 25 attempt games than 45.
Frank Gore shouldn't be the starter in San Francisco any longer and won't be startable in fantasy next year. Gore is an aging running back with a young stud behind him on a team that likely has a regime change coming. That not enough? Just take a look at the 49ers running back numbers side by side since Week 9:
- Gore- 102-381-2-3.7 YPC 5-38-0 7.6 YPR
- Hyde- 35-172-2-4.9 YPC 6-56-0 9.3 YPR
Verdict: Believe it. Truth be told, the change probably should have been made about a month ago, but it's hard to take the job from a player that's been as good as Gore has for as long as he has. If he'll accept the role change he still has value as a hard-nosed runner once the defense has been worn down, but the majority of the carries need to go to Hyde moving forward.
The promise of Michael Crabtree's talent may never be realized, he's nothing more than a WR3. First we all though Crabtree wasn't reaching his potential because of Alex Smith's inability to throw the deep ball. Now it looks like he's being held back by a terrible offensive line and an inaccurate Colin Kaepernick. The fact is, Crabtree probably won't ever reach the potential we once projected.
Verdict: Believe it. In six years in the league he's yet to have a WR1 season and he's only finished amongst the top 30 wide receivers once. Crabtree's actual upside is somewhere around mid-range WR2 and it's questionable if he'll ever even attain that. The future in San Francisco is questionable at best and Crabtree is not the type of elite receiver to produce despite circumstances.
After a red hot start to the season, Father Time has finally caught up with Steve Smith. It was a great story when Smith was tearing through the league like a 20 something superstar, but that time has long past. He hasn't topped 100 yards since Week 6 and he only has 2 touchdowns since then. Smith will not be a startable wide receiver next season.
Verdict: Believe it. Everyone came into the season expecting a Torrey Smith breakout and for the elder Smith to play sidekick. The Ravens took advantage of that until teams starting adjusting their coverages. Once that happened, Steve Smith started looking like the 35 year old receiver he is.
Andre Ellington has proven Bruce Arians correct and will never be a feature back in the NFL. Ellington, before he was injured, averaged a paltry 2.7 yards per carry in the second half of the season. The talented second year back only scored three touchdowns on the ground this year and looks more like C.J. Spiller than Jamaal Charles moving forward.
Verdict: Don't believe it. One down year isn't enough for me to give up on a back as talented as Ellington. Elite production at running back is a position that is so difficult to come by that you need to stick with Ellington for at least another year. It's very possible that Ellington and Giovani Bernard are the next Spiller's, but you don't want to be the guy that sold low on them if they end up fulfilling their talent.