Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the second edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Listen to enough of the rhetoric surrounding Week 1 and the one message you'll consistently hear like a mantra is: It’s only one week, don’t get too high or too low. It is sometimes difficult to remain patient with players who, just a few months ago, had you on their bandwagon, only for them to disappoint in their first outing of the season.
Don't jump off the wagon too early, though, or you could be burned as they cosy themselves up to other owners in your league and rack up the points. On the flip side, remaining patient too long can be damaging too.
The bottom line is that we are still learning who these teams are, but we have our first data point of the season and we can start to see patterns emerging before too long to help us make better line-up decisions and rack up those wins.
So without further ado, let’s get to the best and worst matchups of Week 2.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Arizona front seven at New York Giants
New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin proclaimed Monday's massacre in Detroit as a nightmare for his team, his words seeming to indicate a growing weariness with the lack of spirit in his beleaguered charges. The coach will have his hands full on a short week preparing for the aggressive scheme of Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Eli Manning was hit nine times and sacked twice on Monday night as the Giants offense was rejected time and again. Although Arizona is without Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington, their performance against San Diego should give them encouragement. The Giants offensive line isn't a one-week fix, so expect Bowles to ask his defensive backs challenge the receivers to win at the line of scrimmage against tight man coverage and send plenty of blitzes to rattle Manning.
Tampa Bay defense vs. St Louis
This revamped Bucs defense laid an egg against Carolina last week as a cohesive Panthers offensive line shut out the front four for the most part and nullified the Bucs pass rush. With a reeling Rams team coming to town, there is no better opportunity for Tampa to get back in the groove. Although it is only one week, the Rams allowed pressure on 19.5% of their quarterback dropbacks last week. If the Bucs can steer this game the way they should considering they face a backup to a backup in Austin Davis, it should be a feeding frenzy of pass rush opportunity.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Minnesota front seven vs. New England
Call this one a gut feeling. The Patriots simply do not lose back to back games under Belichick, at least not easily. Despite the struggles on the offensive line in Miami, I have to believe some of that came down to a lack of conditioning and the blistering Florida sunshine, combined with some miscommunication. Tom Brady doesn't quite look himself, but the Patriots always have a plan and should deploy a game plan this week to slow down, if not totally stop, the Vikings pass rush. Incidentally, the Vikings applied pressure on 19.5% of their opponent dropbacks last week – mind you, it was the Austin Davis-led Rams for the majority of that contest. In what should be a much closer game against the men from Boston, the right play might be to keep your Vikings in reserve unless you don’t have any better options.
Pass Rushing Chart
Season | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pressure Applied | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop Backs Faced | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks Allowed | QB Hits Allowed | Drop Backs | |
2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 | 12% | 2.02 | 4.13 | 34.3 |
2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.15 | 4.71 | 35.4 |
2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.21 | 4.59 | 35.9 |
2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.32 | 4.75 | 36.3 |
2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.29 | 4.75 | 37 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.53 | 5.13 | 38 |
2014 NFL Average | 11.5% | 2.19 | 4.44 | 38.6 | 11.5% | 2.19 | 4.44 | 38.6 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 11.1% | 0 | 4 | 36 | 10.3% | 2 | 4 | 39 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 0% | 0 | 0 | 42 | 6.8% | 1 | 3 | 44 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 0% | 0 | 0 | 38 | 10.8% | 3 | 7 | 65 |
BUFFALO Bills | 5.9% | 2 | 3 | 51 | 8.7% | 1 | 2 | 23 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 21.1% | 3 | 8 | 38 | 11.4% | 1 | 4 | 35 |
CHICAGO Bears | 8.7% | 1 | 2 | 23 | 5.9% | 2 | 3 | 51 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 10.8% | 3 | 7 | 65 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 38 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 10.3% | 4 | 4 | 39 | 14.7% | 3 | 5 | 34 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 12.5% | 1 | 3 | 24 | 10% | 3 | 4 | 40 |
DENVER Broncos | 10.7% | 3 | 6 | 56 | 8.1% | 1 | 3 | 37 |
DETROIT Lions | 25.7% | 2 | 9 | 35 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 33 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 6.9% | 1 | 2 | 29 | 11.1% | 3 | 4 | 36 |
HOUSTON Texans | 35% | 3 | 14 | 40 | 17.4% | 1 | 4 | 23 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 8.1% | 1 | 3 | 37 | 10.7% | 3 | 6 | 56 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 8% | 5 | 4 | 50 | 10.9% | 3 | 5 | 46 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 21.6% | 4 | 8 | 37 | 15.4% | 4 | 6 | 39 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 10% | 4 | 6 | 60 | 6.1% | 1 | 2 | 33 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 19.5% | 5 | 8 | 41 | 15.4% | 1 | 4 | 26 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 6.1% | 1 | 2 | 33 | 10% | 4 | 6 | 60 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 6.8% | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 42 |
NEW YORK Giants | 3% | 1 | 1 | 33 | 25.7% | 2 | 9 | 35 |
NEW YORK Jets | 5.9% | 2 | 2 | 34 | 9.7% | 2 | 3 | 31 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 9.7% | 2 | 3 | 31 | 5.9% | 2 | 2 | 34 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 10.9% | 3 | 5 | 46 | 8% | 5 | 4 | 50 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 14.7% | 3 | 5 | 34 | 10.3% | 4 | 4 | 39 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.3% | 2 | 4 | 39 | 11.1% | 0 | 4 | 36 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 10% | 3 | 4 | 40 | 12.5% | 1 | 3 | 24 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 11.1% | 3 | 4 | 36 | 6.9% | 1 | 2 | 29 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 15.4% | 1 | 4 | 26 | 19.5% | 5 | 8 | 41 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 11.4% | 1 | 4 | 35 | 21.1% | 3 | 8 | 38 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 15.4% | 4 | 6 | 39 | 21.6% | 4 | 8 | 37 |
WASHINGTON | 17.4% | 1 | 4 | 23 | 35% | 3 | 14 | 40 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Kansas City defenders at Denver
After a concerning no-show at home the Chiefs were always going to face a gut check in Week 2; it is just a pity for them that it comes in Mile High against the Broncos. John Fox's team did not fire on all cylinders in their first action, but they should find their feet against the Chiefs, who lost two key defensive starters in Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito for the season. Josh Mauga came into the line-up last week when Johnson went down and notched eight solo tackles, but James Michael-Johnson figures to play a part too in the rotation. Eric Berry, with a suspect pair of inside linebackers playing in front of him, could explode again this week after a stellar 14 solo tackles last week. Plug in your Chiefs defenders in what could be their high water mark of the season for production.
Atlanta defenders at Cincinnati
Despite Matt Ryan's heroics last week – and they were impressive – there is still the sense that this Atlanta defense has its holes. The Bengals, who pride themselves on being balanced on offense, should give the Falcons a stern test in the Queen City. Like New Orleans, Atlanta tends to struggle on the road and the Bengals will know that. Expect a heavy dose of Gio Bernard with a dash of Jeremy Hill to get the Bengals in a groove. Start your Falcons defenders with confidence against a Bengals team that was 8-0 at home last season.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Miami defenders at Buffalo
Buffalo could come crashing back to earth in Week 2 against a stifling Miami defense that sent Tom Brady and the Patriots packing. EJ Manuel's spotty play is still difficult to trust, his solid opening week performance notwithstanding, so it is hard to foresee the Bills stringing together long drives to keep Miami's defenders productive in the box scores. The Bills will try to run the ball early and often – they had 33 rushing attempts last week – but my hunch is that the Dolphins can spoil the party for the Bills.
Pittsburgh defenders at Baltimore
The Ravens had an inordinate number of offensive snaps against Cincinnati, mainly due to the game script, as they fought their way back from a deficit. Despite that, however, they couldn’t muster much offensively. Joe Flacco looked shellshocked and lost at times. The Steelers will be eager to make amends for their defensive lapse in the second half of the opener by keeping Baltimore at bay. Flacco lacks that trust factor that he can sustain drives, even in a fired-up encounter such as this, so the smart play might be to sit your Steelers this week unless you have no better options.
Tackle Chart
Season | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts Faced | Drop Backs Faced | Offensive Snaps Faced | Rush Percentage | Tackle Opps Allowed | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive Snaps | Rush Percentage | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% |
2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% |
2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% |
2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% |
2014 NFL Average | 51.9 | 26.4 | 38.6 | 64.9 | 50.8% | 51.9 | 26.4 | 38.6 | 64.9 | 50.8% |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 45 | 24 | 36 | 60 | 53.3% | 52 | 26 | 39 | 65 | 50% |
ATLANTA Falcons | 57 | 28 | 42 | 70 | 49.1% | 57 | 25 | 44 | 69 | 43.9% |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 51 | 26 | 38 | 64 | 51% | 58 | 20 | 65 | 85 | 34.5% |
BUFFALO Bills | 54 | 18 | 51 | 69 | 33.3% | 50 | 33 | 23 | 56 | 66% |
CAROLINA Panthers | 42 | 17 | 38 | 55 | 40.5% | 58 | 33 | 35 | 68 | 56.9% |
CHICAGO Bears | 50 | 33 | 23 | 56 | 66% | 54 | 18 | 51 | 69 | 33.3% |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 58 | 20 | 65 | 85 | 34.5% | 51 | 26 | 38 | 64 | 51% |
CLEVELAND Browns | 56 | 28 | 39 | 67 | 50% | 52 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 57.7% |
DALLAS Cowboys | 47 | 30 | 24 | 54 | 63.8% | 49 | 23 | 40 | 63 | 46.9% |
DENVER Broncos | 52 | 14 | 56 | 70 | 26.9% | 55 | 32 | 37 | 69 | 58.2% |
DETROIT Lions | 42 | 22 | 35 | 57 | 52.4% | 53 | 30 | 33 | 63 | 56.6% |
GREEN BAY Packers | 57 | 37 | 29 | 66 | 64.9% | 47 | 21 | 36 | 57 | 44.7% |
HOUSTON Texans | 55 | 23 | 40 | 63 | 41.8% | 48 | 33 | 23 | 56 | 68.8% |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 55 | 32 | 37 | 69 | 58.2% | 52 | 14 | 56 | 70 | 26.9% |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 64 | 32 | 50 | 82 | 50% | 52 | 25 | 46 | 71 | 48.1% |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 64 | 38 | 37 | 75 | 59.4% | 40 | 17 | 39 | 56 | 42.5% |
MIAMI Dolphins | 53 | 20 | 60 | 80 | 37.7% | 57 | 38 | 33 | 71 | 66.7% |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51 | 22 | 41 | 63 | 43.1% | 48 | 30 | 26 | 56 | 62.5% |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 57 | 38 | 33 | 71 | 66.7% | 53 | 20 | 60 | 80 | 37.7% |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 57 | 25 | 44 | 69 | 43.9% | 57 | 28 | 42 | 70 | 49.1% |
NEW YORK Giants | 53 | 30 | 33 | 63 | 56.6% | 42 | 22 | 35 | 57 | 52.4% |
NEW YORK Jets | 37 | 15 | 34 | 49 | 40.5% | 59 | 34 | 31 | 65 | 57.6% |
OAKLAND Raiders | 59 | 34 | 31 | 65 | 57.6% | 37 | 15 | 34 | 49 | 40.5% |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 52 | 25 | 46 | 71 | 48.1% | 64 | 32 | 50 | 82 | 50% |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 52 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 57.7% | 56 | 28 | 39 | 67 | 50% |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 52 | 26 | 39 | 65 | 50% | 45 | 24 | 36 | 60 | 53.3% |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49 | 23 | 40 | 63 | 46.9% | 47 | 30 | 24 | 54 | 63.8% |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 47 | 21 | 36 | 57 | 44.7% | 57 | 37 | 29 | 66 | 64.9% |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 48 | 30 | 26 | 56 | 62.5% | 51 | 22 | 41 | 63 | 43.1% |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 58 | 33 | 35 | 68 | 56.9% | 42 | 17 | 38 | 55 | 40.5% |
TENNESSEE Titans | 40 | 17 | 39 | 56 | 42.5% | 64 | 38 | 37 | 75 | 59.4% |
WASHINGTON | 48 | 33 | 23 | 56 | 68.8% | 55 | 23 | 40 | 63 | 41.8% |
Best of luck with Week 2 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.