This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
In the first half of the 2014 NFL season, ownership data was available on FanDuel when Thursday Night Football lineups locked. Now, that is not the case. Fortunately, the high-ownership players aligned with the value plays according to my projection system quite often. Playing highly owned commodities in head-to-head, Double-ups, and 50/50s insulates the scoring floor in relation to other teams to surpass the money line. The ownership data provided below is from various rosters submitted to large 50-50 and Double-Up games at FanDuel prior to Thursday Night Football's lock. Not all players were submitted to gauge ownership, but all of the best values for the week were involved.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Overall Philosophy
I combine many online projections, including those from Footballguys.com as a starting point to create a value board at each position. Then I analyze matchup data in terms of efficiency allowed, strengths and weaknesses of the opposing defense, and regression factors.
Last Week's Lineups
- Andrew Luck
- DeMarco Murray
- Trent Richardson
- Josh Gordon
- Cecil Shorts
- Malcom Floyd
- Coby Fleener
- Brandon McManus
- Eagles
Total Salary: 59700
Avg. Ownership: 21.3%
A brutal week for this lineup at 90.4 points. That would win a random head-to-head matchup or two, but lost across the board in 50/50 or Double-Up formats.
Alternate Roster
- Colin Kaepernick
- DeMarco Murray
- Trent Richardson
- Josh Gordon
- Cecil Shorts
- Jordy Nelson
- Coby Fleener
- Brandon McManus
- Seahawks
Total Salary: 60000
Avg. Ownership: 21.3%
This roster did not fare much better at 92.8 points. Last week the top efficiency rosters by the model (106.8, 115.0, 126.9) all bested the top owned rosters for the weekend. Cecil Shorts and Coby Fleener were huge misses by the masses. Trent Richardson's otherwise brutal day was saved by a goal line touchdown.
With the Thanksgiving schedule, the large entry contests were exclusively Thursday-Only or Sunday start times. As a result, the statistics are an average of many 100-man 50/50 games to give a spectrum of ownership data compiled into a singular number. No teams are on bye and six teams are out of the mix for the weekend games because of Thanksgiving. Here are the most-owned players by position for Week 13.
QUARTERBACKS
- 17% - Eli Manning, 7200
- 16% - Ben Roethlisberger, 8300
- 7% - Andrew Luck, 10100, *Ideal Matchup*
Noteworthy options with low-ownership numbers for potential tournament plays include: Aaron Rodgers (3%), Tom Brady (2%), and Drew Brees (2%).
RUNNING BACKS
- 30% - Tre Mason, 6000, *Ideal Matchup*
- 23% - LeVeon Bell, 9200, *Ideal Matchup*
- 23% - Rashad Jennings, 7100
- 18% - Justin Forsett, 7600
- 16% - Andre Ellington, 7700, *Ideal Matchup*
- 10% - C.J. Anderson, 7800
Noteable options with low-ownership: Daniel Herron (7%), and Fred Jackson (1%).
WIDE RECEIVERS
- 41% - Kenny Stills, 5100
- 23% - Josh Gordon, 8100, *Ideal Matchup*
- 16% - Antonio Brown, 9200, *Ideal Matchup*
- 13% - Odell Beckham, 8500
- 12% - T.Y. Hilton, 8700, *Ideal Matchup*
- 11% - Steve Smith, 6400
- 8% - Brandon LaFell, 7000, *Ideal Matchup*
- 8% - Marques Colston, 6000
- 8% - Malcom Floyd, 5400, *Ideal Matchup*
Noteable options with low-ownership: Julio Jones (1%), Jordy Nelson (3%), Reggie Wayne (3%), Cecil Shorts (2%), and James Jones (4%).
TIGHT ENDS
- 20% - Travis Kelce, 5300
- 19% - Rob Gronkowski, 7700
- 12% - Delanie Walker, 5700
- 10% - Jimmy Graham, 7500, *Ideal Matchup*
KICKERS
- 15% - Chandler Catanzaro, 4600
- 11% - Mason Crosby, 4900
- 7% - Shayne Graham, 4700
- 5% - Justin Tucker, 5000
- 5% - Shaun Suisham, 4900
- 5% - Adam Vinatieri, 5600
DEFENSES
- 40% - Miami Dolphins, 4900, *Ideal Matchup*
- 14% - Minnesota Vikings, 4500
- 8% - St.Louis Rams, 5200
- 5% - New York Giants, 4900, *Ideal Matchup*
TOP ROSTER: BY THE Ownership NUMBERS
- Eli Manning
- LeVeon Bell
- Tre Mason
- Antonio Brown
- Josh Gordon
- Kenny Stills
- Travis Kelce
- Chandler Catanzaro
- Miami Dolphins
Total Salary: 59600
Avg. Ownership: 24.7%
The remaining salary cap space can allow for subbing in Delanie Walker over Travis Kelce, or Odell Beckham over Josh Gordon. At nearly 25% this group is preferred over last week's options
TOP ROSTER: BY THE efficiency model
- Ben Roethlisberger
- LeVeon Bell
- Rashad Jennings
- Antonio Brown
- Marques Colston
- Kenny Stills
- Travis Kelce
- Mason Crosby
- Miami Dolphins
Total Salary: 60000
Many of the same players here as the high-ownership roster and all are among the most-owned options at their respective position. The roster is heavy with options from the Steelers-Saints matchup, which has the second-highest over/under of the non-Thursday slate in Week 13.
