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The frenzy of the fantasy season (outside of the rare Week 17-included title game or DFS action) is over. With that, the 2015 rookie and startup draft season officially begins. Dynasty is a year-round adventure, which is why we love it. Here is a brain dump of my thoughts as we hit the new year:
Evaluate Your Options
Like that car checkup before the winter or as spring hits, the end of another season is a chance to take a step back and look at every facet of an owner's dynasty experience. With the Phenoms fall-out, the league fees and prize money management could certainly top that list. How can we improve the checks and balances within our sacred dynasty leagues? I will be pushing my private leagues in the direction of LeagueSafe going forward. Will I be checking out other options? Absolutely.
Regardless of the leagues hosting platform, jot down a list of things that need work to enhance your team and league management abilities. There may be another site that fulfills them and heck, may be cheaper to boot. The offseason is also an opportunity to suggest rule changes and tweaks to the league. Depending on how large a change it is, a one-year holding period prior to switching over is appropriate. Dropping kicker and/or team defense from the starting requirements? That is an easy transition for the coming season as an example. Want to add a quarterback flex spot or host of IDP spots? Thoroughly discuss the plan of action with the league before the league vote on such a change so every owner is 'in the know' and can vote accordingly.
Finally, evaluate your own season as a dynasty owner. How did your waiver wire moves pan out? Were you able to survive through injuries? What about sit-start decisions? Taking an hour or two for each league to take a few notes is invaluable especially as the memories fade by the time we get to Week 1 next season. I keep detailed records of my key pickups, trades (even the ones I did not accept), and more in my excel-based league power rankings. I write up each team's journey through the season over at UTHDynasty.com as well.
Know Your Free Agents
Here is just a sampling of the free agents to monitor and have a game plan with this offseason:
Mark Sanchez: Has value if he is the Week 1 Eagles starter. Elsewhere? Regular on the waiver wire.
Jake Locker: Allure of the rushing production, maybe a new situation changes his course, but not likely.
DeMarco Murray: Coming off the huge season, I project a decent value drop if he leaves Dallas. Joseph Randle has flashed in between-the-tackles backup duty for the Cowboys and any running back can flourish behind that dominant offensive line.
Mark Ingram: Showed his power game this season - bet on at least a 50/50 role in a committee where he signs. Khiry Robinson is very interesting as a stash to take over that power role in New Orleans. In the deepest of deep leagues? How about Toben Opurum.
Ryan Mathews: Talent with the ball in his hands has eclipsed his production throughout his career. Not a big fan of the Chargers backs left on the depth chart. I project at least a season of relevance from Mathews going forward as he will turn 28 years old during the 2015 season.
Stevan Ridley: One of my favorite stashes during the season. Gets away from the Patriots quagmire. Talented thumper that can catch some balls. Bet on a value increase in January and February.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Showed his mettle in 2014, especially as a receiver and red zone option. Likely left out in the cold except for a low-level deal after the high-profile names, and potentially the NFL draft, has settled down.
Shane Vereen: Not a believer in his talent, but could be a Darren Sproles-light in the right offense.
Darren McFadden: May be on a waiver wire or two heading into the offseason. Circling the drain in dynasty value, but may have one relevant season left in the tank.
Knowshon Moreno: Looked to be a significant thorn in Lamar Miller owners' sides prior to injury in 2014. An all-around option that is bound to carve out a decent role, but may sit on the free agent sidelines until the dust settles.
Julius Thomas: His value takes a hit outside of Denver. Pin Thomas as a mid-TE1 based on the range of free agent outcomes.
Jordan Cameron: Plenty of athletic upside, needs the right offense/quarterback combination to realize potential. A quality buy at TE2-type prices.
Larry Donnell: Came out of nowhere in 2014, could return to Giants. Not an overt talent, making him a tenuous hold in dynasty.
Jermaine Gresham: Have we not seen enough? If anything, Gresham will gum up the works for a higher upside young talent where he lands. Full speed ahead for Tyler Eifert in Cincinnati in 2015.
Owen Daniels, Charles Clay: Solid veterans that are, and will be, on the fantasy fringe at best.
Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas: Elite talents that are highly unlikely to change teams.
Randall Cobb: One of the bigger 'swing' dynasty assets out there based on free agency. Davante Adams and Jeff Janis get a bump with a Cobb departure from Green Bay. Cobb's highest value would be resigning with the Packers, an outcome that appears more likely than a few months ago.
Jeremy Maclin: Coming off his best NFL season (YPC in 2014 was 12% higher than career-best), best long-term value likely in Philadelphia. I project a drop in value going forward and better suited for a secondary receiver role.
Torrey Smith: He has been consistent on a season-long basis in his career, but maddeningly inconsistent week-to-week. I have clamored for a change of scenario for the past couple of seasons. More upside than downside if leaving Baltimore. Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken are decent stashes remaining in Baltimore.
Michael Crabtree; The 49ers passing game, outside of Anquan Boldin, has been frustrating the last couple of seasons. Crabtree screams low-upside going forward and expecting anything more than WR20-ish ceiling is playing with fire. Steve Johnson is mildly intriguing in San Francisco sans Crabtree.
Cecil Shorts: Historically, players like Shorts fade after brief relevance. Shorts can be a role player going forward in an NFL sense, but that means the best is long gone for fantasy.
Denarius Moore: Was never much of a fan. Will be a situational-depth option on his new team most likely.
Hakeem Nicks: A roster clogger in dynasty as Nicks still has some name cache remaining, but a long-shot to return to fantasy starter status. Tough to hold through rookie drafts.
Reggie Wayne: Only Terrell Owens logged a season of even 8 PPR PPG following a similar season to Reggie Wayne at age 36. More likely is the path of Isaac Bruce, Tim Brown, or Derrick Mason for Reggie Wayne going forward - one more year on the fringe, then a farewell. The decline is coming fast for one of the best receiver of the past 15 years.
Rod Streater, Jarrett Boykin, Miles Austin: All low-upside options that, at best, clog a dynasty roster in the offseason.
2015 Rookie Drafts
Based on all the data I have collected thus far, 2015 is shaping up to be a strong running back crop compared to the previous few classes. It is much-needed for the dynasty landscape as the divide between over-the-hill producers and young talents without a lead role leaves few bankable options. This rookie draft should help with Todd Gurley, T.J. Yeldon, and Jay Ajayi solid first-round rookie draft picks and Duke Johnson a wild card. Add in high-producers like Kenneth Dixon, David Johnson, and Tevin Coleman and things are looking good to bolster the top-20 of dynasty rankings.
The tight ends look rather forgettable compared to Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Jace Amaro from a year ago. Maxx Williams is a stud in terms of age-weighted production, but is likely to be an underwhelming athlete. Pharaoh Brown is my early pick to be an athletic 'buzz-worthy' player in the pre-draft process, but had only average comparable production throughout his Oregon career. Clive Walford is a well-rounded prospect out of Miami, but on the older side. I cannot see a tight end worthy of a top-25 rookie draft pick at this stage.
As usual, the wide receivers are intriguing. There are a ton of small schoolers on the radar this season that also have a shot at quality size-speed profiles (a huge question mark for most small school products). D'haquille Williams from Auburn is the metric favorite at this early stage of the process, checking the projected size and speed to accompany his high-level production along the way. Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Devin Funchess are high-level performers within the construct of their offenses and key players at the combine. I am wary that Diggs checking in as an average athlete. Cooper and Funchess need to confirm their top-20% athleticism scores this offseason. And yes, I do think Funchess will be categorized as a wide receiver for the draft and future fantasy terms. If a tight end, Funchess has one of the highest projection model scores at the position since 1999, upgrading the previous 'lackluster class' talk regarding the position.
Dorial Green-Beckham is a huge (no pun intended) wildcard, who underwhelmed production-wise despite his overt physical traits. Ty Montgomery stayed in school in 2014, but is further down the metric rankings for the upcoming class. Rashad Greene, Kevin White, Justin Hardy, Jaelen Strong, Quinshad Davis, Antwan Goodley, Nelson Agholor, and Vince Mayle are just of a few of the more well-known names that the projection model does not like as much as the consensus out there at this early stage.
I will be writing up prospect profiles on at least 100 2015 players from January through April over at UTHDynasty.com for folks that want a more detailed view of the rookie and startup draft landscape for the coming season.