There is a hangover feel after Week 2 landing a right hook to the running back position in terms of injuries. Many depth charts are running on fumes in dynasty leagues with projected absences, committees running rampant, and a new season throwing curveballs from the expectations of the offseason.
Injury Adjustments
Ameer Abdullah: With Abdullah out for the year, Dwayne Washington and Zach Zenner are waiver wire adds if they are somehow out there in dynasty leagues. I would be selling Washington if you can get a future 2nd, but buying if the price is a future 3rd. Zenner is more of a Round 3/4 proposition.
Danny Woodhead: I would be throwing out offers of a future 3rd or so for Woodhead to stash for next year. The remaining options are not that appealing, but I did log positive preseason notes for Kenneth Farrow with his big frame and solid lateral agility. Dexter McCluster's addition hurts Farrow's PPR upside if Melvin Gordon were to miss time the rest of the season.
Adrian Peterson: Shop Jerick McKinnon for a future 1st. I like McKinnon plenty, but getting one of the 2017 or 2018 top running backs is a positive move long-term. Matt Asiata is still around to snipe expected goal line work. If an owner cannot obtain a future 1st, hold and possibly start McKinnon as injuries (and upcoming bye weeks) will cause a pinch for all but the most stacked running back rosters in your league. Asiata is worth a decent chunk (say 30%) of a medium-depth dynasty waiver budget (primarily in start-2RB formats) with Ronnie Hillman worth a minimal bid if the player pool is regularly dry or an owner misses out on other running backs this week.
Jonathan Stewart: Fozzy Whittaker is the name in bright lights this week for the waiver wire, but I see more fool's gold here. Few goal line looks are available in Carolina, Mike Tolbert will still see situational touches, and Cameron Artis-Payne should not be ignored.
Arian Foster: A groin is troublesome for a running back and can recur at any moment in-game. Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake were in a rough 65-35 split post-Foster injury in Week 2. My darkhorse here is Damian Williams, who was the clear No.2 in Week 1 to Foster and out in Week 2.
Doug Martin: A hamstring for Martin opens the door for Charles Sims to elevate into the RB1 discussion weekly in his absence. Jacquizz Rodgers saw the secondary duty in Week 2 after Martin left the game, but Peyton Barber is the upside name to know for dynasty leagues. Barber flashed in the preseason as an interior runner and is on many waiver wires this week.
Touchdown Regression Update
Moving Up
Kirk Cousins: One passing touchdown on 58 completions is a slow start. The Redskins run game will be a low-producing unit by their early offensive line play. Even Teddy Bridgewater had a 3.7% touchdown rate last year. Cousins will regress upwards on his current 1.7% mark.
Russell Wilson: One touchdown on 49 attempts so far and the Seattle offense, in general, has struggled mightily. Wilson, once his ankle is back to full strength is a prime regression candidate. Maybe it is the second half of the season (like 2015), but he has consistently logged 10% touchdown rates or better in his career to-date.
Julian Edelman: The slot maven has been shut out of the end zone on 14 receptions thus far. Tom Brady's return in two weeks will cure New England's touchdown rates overall. After an 11.5% rate last year, Edelman is a downward regression candidate this season, but something in the 5-8% range with Brady is a reasonable projection.
Marvin Jones, Amari Cooper, and Odell Beckham have combined for 35 receptions and zero trips to the end zone. Jones is winning down the field and Cooper and Beckham are central figures in their teams' passing games. All three are strong candidates to hit paydirt in the next week or two as they regress upwards.
Moving Down
At 11.9% Philip Rivers stands out of the high touchdown quarterback group. Antonio Gates looks two steps slower this year and Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead are already out for the season. Rivers' career high was 10.9% way back in 2008 with nothing above 9% in a season since. Expect Rivers to shift down over the coming weeks.
Ben Roethlisberger at 13% is off to a career-best start through two games. He has topped 10% just twice in his career, both nearly a decade ago when his volume was substantially lower.
Kelvin Benjamin is off to an unsustainable start with three scores on just 13 receptions. At 23%, expect more volume or less touchdowns going forward. Benjamin is playing on a strong passing game, but even maintaining a 15% rate for a receiver is an outstanding season.
Film Notes
Jaron Brown is gaining on John Brown in Arizona. Jaron surged from 28% in snaps Week 1 to 44% (to John Brown's 42%) in Week 2. Part of that could be the blowout game script, but Jaron Brown has performed well with his limited opportunities over the years, sticking around on a crowded depth chart.
Breshad Perriman is progressing up the ranks, up 10% in snap rate in Week 2. His role is mainly as a deep threat and the return of Dennis Pitta tempers Perriman's upside this year. A successful Year 2 for Perriman would be a few flash plays and - most importantly - staying healthy.
Devin Funchess is one of the better talent buys right now. He has logged 52% and 65% of the snaps in successive weeks nad made a quality red zone 50/50 ball touchdown to ice the game against San Francisco. I expect Funchess to approach 80% of the snaps by midseason.
Jeremy Langford owners should have sold this offseason when the Bears largely passed on strongly addressing the running back position. After 96% of the snaps Week 1, Langford plummetted to 60% with Jordan Howard's strong 2016 debut. Like in the offseason, I expect Howard to be in a full committee or supplant Langford - at least as the early-down back - by midseason at the latest.
C.J. Uzomah's time in the sun is over. Tyler Kroft returned in Week 2 and Uzomah's snap count sagged. Tyler Eifert will be back soon too. Uzomah is a cut in dynasty leagues outside of deep tight end premium formats.
Do not forget about Jaelen Strong. Braxton Miller was injured in Week 2 and Strong surged to 58% of the snaps. Strong had a quality offseason and is a metric marvel back from the NFL Draft process.
Swap Charles Johnson for Adam Thielen in Minnesota. Johnson was the clear WR2 in Week 1, but Thielen is gaining ground in snap rate and lapping Johnson in production. LaQuon Treadwell figures to see more opportunities later in the season, but Thielen is the secondary option to potentially stash in deeper leagues for now. Johnson can be dropped for waiver wire candidates.
Like Charles Johnson, I would be dropping Larry Donnell and Will Tye in most leagues. Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shepard were all over 94% in snap rate and Shane Vereen is one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL. There are few predictable targets left for tight end and Donnell and Tye are buried in a near-50/50 split in snaps.
Quincy Enunwa has been the clear No.3 receiver for the Jets in snaps through two weeks and an overt performer with his opportunities. Brandon Marshall is a question mark to play in Week 3 and both Marshall and Decker are on the older side of the receiver age curve. While I would sell Enunwa for a future 1st (any year) today, do not sell for less as his profile of size, athleticism, and rising opportunity-usage warrants a vice grip.
Darren Sproles is an undervalued asset. He has out-snapped Ryan Mathews both weeks this season, including a near 2-to-1 edge in Week 2.
Hunter Henry is a priority buy. After 41% of the snaps in Week 1, Henry zoomed up to 57% last week. Antonio Gates looks physically done and the Chargers are searching for more weapons with Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. Henry's targets will start to flow any week now.