Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Tampa Bay | -5.5 | 55.5 | 30.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Dallas | Green Bay | -2 | 52.5 | 27.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Jacksonville | -8.5 | 43.5 | 26 | +++ | ++ | ++ |
| Philadelphia | Arizona | -6.5 | 45 | 25.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | Dallas | 2 | 52.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | New England | 5.5 | 55.5 | 25 | + | ++ | |
| Kansas City | Houston | -1.5 | 47 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| LA Rams | Seattle | -1.5 | 47 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| NY Giants | LA Chargers | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | + | + | |
| Detroit | Carolina | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
| Seattle | LA Rams | 1.5 | 47 | 22.75 | |||
| Indianapolis | San Francisco | -1.5 | 44 | 22.75 | |||
| Houston | Kansas City | 1.5 | 47 | 22.75 | |||
| Tennessee | Miami | -3 | 41 | 22 | |||
| Minnesota | Chicago | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | + | ||
| San Francisco | Indianapolis | 1.5 | 44 | 21.25 | |||
| Oakland | Baltimore | -2.5 | 40 | 21.25 | + | ||
| Cincinnati | Buffalo | -3 | 39 | 21 | + | ||
| LA Chargers | NY Giants | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Carolina | Detroit | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Cleveland | 0 | 39 | 19.5 | |||
| Cleveland | NY Jets | 0 | 39 | 19.5 | |||
| Arizona | Philadelphia | 6.5 | 45 | 19.25 | |||
| Miami | Tennessee | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||
| Baltimore | Oakland | 2.5 | 40 | 18.75 | |||
| Chicago | Minnesota | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Cincinnati | 3 | 39 | 18 | |||
| Jacksonville | Pittsburgh | 8.5 | 43.5 | 17.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mike Gillislee (Patriots), LeVeon Bell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Wendell Smallwood/LeGarrette Blount (Eagles)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Jesse James (Steelers), Alshon Jeffery/Torrey Smith/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Steelers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Eli Manning (Giants)
- Running Back: Ty Montgomery/Aaron Jones (Packers), Doug Martin (Buccaneers), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Todd Gurley (Rams), Wayne Gallman (Giants)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Martellus Bennett (Packers), Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Odell Beckham JrBrandon Marshall/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram (Giants)
- Defense: Bengals, Raiders, Vikings