Over the past few years, there have been two very popular articles written by our very own Chase Stuart that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based upon the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good player, he has discussed both Team Defense by Committee ("TDBC") and Quarterback by Committee ("QBBC") as a general fantasy league strategy. In general I think that this is a wise move because very early on in fantasy drafts there are a ton of RB and WR prospects to go after to build a great team. While there are a few studs at QB and also a few choice defenses, I do not see a huge need in leagues to pursue either too hard in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.

So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Running back? Maybe. Wide receiver? Hmmm, that's really intriguing, but we should probably look at say the third starting option - "Fantasy WR3". What if you could grab two wide receivers later in the draft that could combine to perform on a WR3 - or even WR2 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this. Let's take a look at how I went about this and then we can digest and discuss the results.

ELIGIBLE RECEIVERS

So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one QB and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to wide receivers, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:

CRITERIA #1 - WR37 AND BEYOND

This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up WR3 numbers, that means we want WR36 or better production - else we would just draft WR36 or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):

Table 1: Wide Receivers WR37-WR61 Based on ADP

Note that Josh Gordon is included in Table 1, but since we are expecting him to receive a full season suspension, he will not be considered.

Unlike the non-PPR article for wide receivers, there are two extra wideouts that I added this year for completeness, Harry Douglas and Doug Baldwin.  Both are projected to have over 130 fantasy points, which is close to several other receivers (Steve Smith, Kenny Stills) and above a handful of other receivers in the ADP Top 60.  So with those two added, we now have 25 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 300 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:

CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE WR FROM ROUND 7 AND ONE FROM ROUND 8.

This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of WR3BC is to "free up" the first 6 rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue 2-3 receivers (especially in PPR leagues) after grabbing a stud RB in Round 1. After six rounds you can have 2-3RBs, 2-3 WRs and possibly even a stud QB or TE, depending on your personal preference, or even to get your WR3 have the "WR3BC" be your WR4. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two WRs in Rounds 7 and 8 to act as our WR3BC gives us that ability.

There is some good news – all of the WR3BC candidates have ADPs that are after Round 7.  There are some wide receivers that might go in Round 8, so planning on taking two of them could leave you scrambling for your ninth pick if you wait too long for your WR3BC choice.  I will have to keep all those details in mind when we look at the WR3BC result because it would not make sense to expect two of these receivers to make it into a committee combination based on their ADP.

So what do we do now to figure out some WR pairs?

CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' WR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the WR Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 16 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each receiver.

After I had all 25 wide receivers with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible WR pairs to find the best duos for WR3BC. So here we are - time for some results:

Table 2: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pairs

As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for WR3BC. Like last year, we have a ton of options that meet or exceed projected WR37 (Dwayne Bowe) by himself.  With 44 different duos to select from, there will be lots of options to try and find a very strong pair for 2014.  To challenge this option further, I am baselining the target WR3BC goal at WR33, Eric Decker, who is projected to have 174.5 fantasy points in 2014.  To make it both more fair and more challenging, I added nine points for Decker’s bye week, as a WR37-WR60 type player would be inserted into the lineup for him for that game, so our target for a successful WR3BC had better achieve 183.5 or more fantasy points.  That reduces the list from Table 2 to 33 pairs that provide 183.6 or more fantasy points and combine favorably as a WR3.  Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:

Table 3: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pair Appearances by Player

As we can see from Table 3, Dwayne Bowe dominates the list, with Cecil Shorts and Riley Cooper claiming strong scond and third spots.  Four other WRs show up on this list at least four times – rookies Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins and Rueben Randle.  All of these names should surprise no one that read Table 1, as these seven guys are all near the Top of the WR37 and beyond ADP list - except Randle, who comes in at a lower ADP of WR45.  Randle is an intriguing player for the Giants that could have a lot of upside, and if you factor in his cheaper ADP, he could be quite the steal this season.  

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Now that we have 44 possible pairs to construct a WR3BC, what exactly does that mean? Should WR33, Eric Decker, be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of wide receivers that can combine for WR3 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for WR13 through WR36, sorted by projected fantasy points:

Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for WRs 13-36

Based on Table 4, we see that WRs beyond the Top 12-15 are really jumbled all over the place. Some are going too early in drafts (Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Percy Harvin) based on current projections, while others are available at what appears to be a discount. Filtering through all of this "noise", we see some players that catch our eye.  Kendall Wright (WR27, 190.7 fantasy points projected) is the last of the "upper tier" of wideouts that are projected to top 190 fantasy points in 2014. Taking the 190 point target and adding 5-7 points for a bye week filler, we next look at our possible pairs to see how many exceed 195 projected points for 2014, and the answer is five pairs, with two or three more just missing the cut.  Digging a little deeper, the top five pairs line up well against DeSean Jackson (WR23) and T.Y. Hilton (WR24) as well. This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted – high end WR3 production (and borderline WR2) on the cheap.

Considering all of the results, the recipe is not a clear as it might appear.  The top two names are Dwayne Bowe and Riley Cooper, and they do form the top pair on the list, but I have my concerns about how Cooper will fit in with the Eagles this season.  With Nick Foles getting Jeremy Maclin back, TE Zach Ertz looking to improve in his second season and Philadelphia adding both Darren Sproles and rookie Jordan Matthews, the opportunities for Cooper may not be as high this year.  Add in the fact that Bowe and Cooper have nearly the same ADP and you may have to get them back-to-back in a draft.  Odds are that if you take Bowe first (and you should), Cooper may not be there at your next selection.

I am looking deeper this year at a player I expect to break out, and that is Reuben Randle.  He should be starting outside for the Giants and has a solid veteran quarterback in Eli Manning that will get him the ball often this year, especially in the Red Zone.  Randle's ADP makes him a steal as well, so for all those reasons, I am recommending Dwayne Bowe and Reuben Randle as the WR3BC for 2014.  Take Bowe in Round 8 and then take Reuben Randle immediately in Round 9.  As long as you get Bowe, you should be in great shape even if someone somehow steals Randle away from you.  If that happens, several viable options exist that are just a few points less, such as Brian Hartline, Anquan Boldin or James Jones, all of which should provide solid value as a backup plan.

For thoroughness Table 5 should be your guide on Fantasy Draft Day if you attempt to use WR3BC:

Table 5: Top 40 WR3BC Options for 2014

Here is a final summary of the combined schedules for Dwayne Bowe and Rueben Randle, committee approach suggests starting each one:

 Table 6: Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan

The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach.  If all the players on your starter list are gone, goiong with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names.  The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week.  That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino