Money Talks: Week 14

Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports

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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.

Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.

ASSUMPTIONS

As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.

Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.

Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.

There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.

Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.

Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.

Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.

Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later.  Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season.  Shoot the lock off of that wallet.

Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up.  Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter.  Add players and handcuffs accordingly.

Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries!  This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire.  Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies.  Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.

Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves.  With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push.  Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.

Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet.  More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs.  Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.

Week 11 tip – Time to change gears.  There are just a few weeks left before fantasy playoffs, so it is time to pony up the dough for big contributors, grab key handcuffs or stuff the bench with a few high upside guys.  No room for bye week fillers any more with just a handful of teams with a bye week left.  It is playoff push time.

Week 12 tip – You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well).  Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect.  Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.

Week 13 tip – Time to go "all in". With just a few weeks left on the NFL and fantasy calendar, all waiver wire moves have to be made with the idea that either the player you pick up is an immediate contributor or there is a clear scenario that if you lose another player on your current roster, that pickup will be extremely valuable (think handcuff – but all positions). Backup Frank Gore with Kendall Hunter, for example, but also think about wide receiver, tight end and quarterback backups too.

Week 14 tip – Same as last week – go all in.  These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time.  If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away.  Everyone else does not matter.

Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 14 of the 2013 season:

BIG BUCKS

Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.

• Donald Brown, RB, Colts ($225):  If Brown is still available, snap him up.  The schedule could be better (Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City) but the Texans will be a good spot start and starting tailbacks are not easy to find off of the waiver wire in December.
• Ladarius Green, TE, Chargers ($201, $253 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):   I mentioned Green last week, and his second touchdown in two weeks only drives his price up.  You better grab him as soon as possible if you need tight end help. 
• Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots ($202):  Julian Edelman is leading the Patriots in targets these days, and that is a big value for a Tom Brady-led passing game.  Quite simply, Edelman is PPR gold just waiting for you on the waiver wire.  Pick him up.
• Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins ($201):  Miami is starting to heat up their passing game, and Brian Hartline has been a big part of that effort.  His big day (9-127-1) against the Jets on Sunday with a team high of 15 targets tells you all you need to know about his level of importance to the Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill.  Add Hartline if you can, especially in PPR leagues, and get him in your lineup as a solid WR3.

MEDIUM MONEY

Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.

• Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs ($155):  Kansas City needs some wins, and their defense is not the same as it was earlier this year.  Smith is spreading the ball around to several targets and he faces Washington and Oakland the next two weeks.  If you need a spot starter, Smith can be your guy.
• Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals ($145):  Carson Palmer gets to throw to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, both of which can hang a 100-yard game on anyone.  Throw in that they face the Rams and Titans the next two weeks and you might have a QB2 with QB1 upside in Weeks 14 and 15.
• Jay Cutler, QB, Bears ($144):  If Cutler makes it back into the lineup this week, he inherits a hot hand in Alshon Jeffery and a great matchup against Dallas in Week 14.  Week 16 also looks good against Philadelphia, making Cutler a sneaky and solid playoff pickup.
• Brandon Myers, TE, Giants ($135, $195 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  The Giants and Eli Manning have been targeting Myers more often of late, and the big tight end has responded with touchdowns in back-to-back contests.  Myers reeled in five balls for 51 yards against Washington last week and he gets a good matchup this week against the Raiders.
• Heath Miller, TE, Steelers ($130, $185 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Heath Miller is getting plenty of targets for Pittsburgh and he barely fell short of a touchdown last Thursday against Baltimore.  His playoff schedule (Giants, Denver, Oakland) look very good for TE1 performance going forward, and if he is available he is likely the most consistent tight end available out there (but offers less upside than Myers).
• Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers ($130):  Crabtree was finally active again for San Francisco on Sunday, and his big 60-yard catch and run showed that he is ready to contribute right away.  The matchup against Seattle is not good next week, but games at Tampa Bay and home against Atlanta make the Week 15-16 stretch look very appealing.
• Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Vikings ($127):  Minnesota looks like a different team depending on who is on the field for the offense.  With Matt Cassel, they seem to be able to throw the ball more effectively, and that opens up chances for speedsters like Cordarelle Patterson.  The Vikings are trying to get him the ball in different ways, including as a rusher, and now Patterson has responded with 113 yards and two scores in the last three weeks despite only touching the ball 14 times.  He is splitting time as the WR2 for Minnesota with Jerome Simpson, but there is no question as to which player offers more upside.
• Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers ($122):  DeAngelo Williams missed the Week 13 contest, leaving Stewart as the top tailback for Carolina on Sunday.  Stewart only totaled 42 yards on 16 touches, but as I mentioned with Donald Brown, starting tailbacks in December are not easy to claim.  He is worth an add, but not likely a start.
• Joique Bell, RB, Lions ($122):  Detroit used both Bell and Reggie Bush to roll all over Green Bay last Thursday, and the Lions are generating a ton of offense with this two-back approach.  Bell not only has handcuff appeal to Bush but offers RB2 or flex spot value even with Bush a full go each week.
• Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($122, $155 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  Two touchdowns for the big rookie tight end has fans noticing, as does a matchup looming with the Lions.  Brent Celek does split time with Ertz, but Nick Foles loves to target pass-catching tight ends, especially in the Red Zone. 
• Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($120):  Miami is not dead yet at 6-6 and they are revving up their passing game behind Tannehill.  Both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline have been productive of late, as has tight end Charles Clay.  With just Lamar Miller at tailback and the Dolphins having to throw quite often, Tannehill is a solid QB2 with matchup QB1 upside.
• LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots ($115):  Last week I was pushing Brandon Bolden as the Patriot tailback to add, but Sunday proved me wrong.  Blount had 12 carries against Bolden’s four.  New England does want to run the ball, and Stevan Ridley was inactive on Sunday.  Blount (and Bolden) are gambles, but they are also worth a roster spot.
• Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers ($111):  Carolina wants to run the ball quite often, and with DeAngelo Williams injured, Tolbert’s value does increase.  Jonathan Stewart will be the top back on first and second down, but at the goal line and in short yardage, Cam Newton will either keep it himself or give it to Tolbert.
• Ace Sanders, WR, Jaguars ($105):  Ace Sanders has passed Mike Brown as the WR2 for Jacksonville.  Sanders has 20 catches and 189 yards on 26 targets over the past three weeks, and Jacksonville is definitely putting in packages and plays to get Sanders more touches despite Sanders’ smaller (5’7”, 173) stature.  Sanders is not a fantasy stud but in PPR leagues he can be a contributor as a WR3.
• Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings ($105):  Greg Jennings has to love Matt Cassel back under center in Minnesota, and the stats tell you the story.  Jennings has 15 catches, 202 yards and three touchdowns from Cassel – in less than three full games.  The rest of the year with Ponder and Freeman (over eight games), Jennings has just 28 catches, 315 yards and zero touchdowns.  Jennings is a borderline WR3 with Cassel and he gets the Eagles in Week 15 to boot.
• Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders ($103):  McFadden is a gamble pickup, not just because Rashad Jennings is killing it as the lead back now in Oakland but also because McFadden has health issues each and every week it seems.  The upside here is that Jennings may not be a full go after suffering a concussion last Thursday, but tread lightly with McFadden.  He is very much in that “boom / bust” category.
• Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens, ($103, $155 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  Here is a decent gamble to take for playoff-bound teams, as Pitta could be back in a week or two to help Baltimore with a playoff push.  Joe Flacco loves Pitta, and he could become a virtual wide receiver for the Ravens once he hits the field again.
• Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots ($101):  Worth a roster spot, but not as much as Blount right now.

CHUMP CHANGE

Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.

• Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders ($78):  Tough call here and I give him a slight nod over Streater with more money this week, but keep in mind Holmes had a cup of coffee with Dallas and some might claim his big Thanksgiving performance was partly due to “revenge”, but that sounds like I should be a rival for the Ravens because I was on their practice field once.   It doesn’t work that way.  Holmes has higher upside (hence more money this week) but he will move to the WR3 role in Oakland when Moore is healthy, which could be Week 14.
• Rod Streater, WR, Raiders ($77):  Streater is the default WR1 for Oakland right now with Denarius Moore injured, but the numbers support Streater (8-150) over the last two games as a pickup.   He is a WR3-type at best but if you need a wideout, Streater is worth a roster spot in bigger roster leagues.
• Kris Durham, WR, Lions ($77):  Durham (not Nate Burleson) saw a healthy amount of targets in Week 13, catching three of seven chances for 68 yards.  With a big matchup against Philadelphia, there is some limited WR3/4 upside here.
• Tiquan Underwood, WR, Buccaneers ($75):  Underwood adds to the Tampa Bay / Rutgers connection for head coach Greg Schiano, as the dude with the flat-top hairdo reeled off a 108-yard, two touchdown performance against Detroit in Week 12.  The downside, however, is that his explosive day came against the Lions’ secondary, who has been exploited often of late.  Adding to the risk with Underwood is that he has not caught more than three balls all year long – but he is the starter now opposite of Vincent Jackson.  I like his Dynasty and Keeper value more, but he is worth a stash and possible WR3-type start in great matchups.
• Jacoby Jones, WR, Ravens ($55):  Jones caught four passes Thanksgiving night against the Steelers, amassing 53 yards in addition to his big game as a kick returner.  Jones had been splitting time with Marlon Brown at the WR2 spot for Baltimore, making both of them marginal fantasy options, but last week Jones had seven targets against Brown’s one 12-yard reception on his only target.  Both players are gambles, but if you get kick return bonuses then Jones has more upside.
• Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals ($55):  One running back flier here as Andre Ellington was a scratch last week.  If Ellington cannot go and Rashard Mendenhall continues to be, well, Mendenhall – then Taylor has some sleeper appeal if he gets a start or two in December.

As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.