Money Talks: Week 16

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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.

Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.

ASSUMPTIONS

As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.

Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.

Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.

There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.

Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.

Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.

Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.

Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later.  Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season.  Shoot the lock off of that wallet.

Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up.  Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter.  Add players and handcuffs accordingly.

Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries!  This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire.  Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies.  Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.

Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves.  With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push.  Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.

Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet.  More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs.  Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.

Week 11 tip – Time to change gears.  There are just a few weeks left before fantasy playoffs, so it is time to pony up the dough for big contributors, grab key handcuffs or stuff the bench with a few high upside guys.  No room for bye week fillers any more with just a handful of teams with a bye week left.  It is playoff push time.

Week 12 tip – You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well).  Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect.  Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.

Week 13 tip – Time to go "all in". With just a few weeks left on the NFL and fantasy calendar, all waiver wire moves have to be made with the idea that either the player you pick up is an immediate contributor or there is a clear scenario that if you lose another player on your current roster, that pickup will be extremely valuable (think handcuff – but all positions). Backup Frank Gore with Kendall Hunter, for example, but also think about wide receiver, tight end and quarterback backups too.

Week 14 tip – Same as last week – go all in.  These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time.  If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away.  Everyone else does not matter.

Week 15 tip – Same as last week – go all in.  These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time.  If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away.  Everyone else does not matter.

Week 16 tip – So as to not say “same as last week” again, let’s just call it like it is.  If you are still alive in one or more fantasy leagues, you are probably in Championship Week or darn close.  Now is the time where you have to decide if a guy on waivers is usable this week (or next).  That reduces our list of players to discuss, but there’s no reason to save waiver wire bidding cash.  At the worst, block your opponent from grabbing help for their team.

Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 16 of the 2013 season:

BIG BUCKS

Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.

• Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings, ($265):  Jennings has really stepped up his production over the past two weeks, thanks mostly to Matt Cassel targeting him 32 times over those two contests.  Jennings has produced big numbers in Weeks 14 and 15, combining for 23 catches, 293 yards and two scores over that span.  Jennings has a tough Week 16 matchup at the Bengals, but Week 17 looks more promising against Detroit.
• Rod Streater, WR, Raiders, ($255):  If Streater is still available, then that has to be a mistake.  Streater is the top wide receiver for Oakland, and he has produced as such for the last five contests, where he has averaged eight targets, five catches, and almost 85 yards a game.  He is both consistent and productive, which makes him a good WR2 candidate against San Diego in Week 16 and also for Week 17 against Denver.  
• Delanie Walker, TE, Titans, ($250, $355 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  Delanie Walker may not have that name recognition right now, but Ryan Fitzpatrick sure likes him as a big target, especially in the Red Zone.  Walker had 11 targets in Week 15, converting eight of those into 53 yards and a touchdown.  With strong matchups to end the year (at Jacksonville, vs. Houston), Walker is a TE1 contender for both weeks.
• Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers, ($215):  There is little doubt now that Crabtree is the top wide receiver for San Francisco.  Crabtree is a solid WR3 option against Tampa Bay for Week 16, but the matchup gets much harder in Week 17 should you need him against Seattle. 
• Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings, ($205):  Cordarrelle Patterson should be on rosters by now, but if he is not, he should be one of the top waiver wire pickups this week.  Matt Cassel has the Minnesota passing game moving the ball well, and Patterson is getting plenty of touches as both a receiver and a rusher (not to mention a kick returner) to end the season.  Patterson has a tough Week 16 matchup at the Bengals, but Week 17 looks more promising against Detroit.
• DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers, ($202):  DeAngelo Williams was very productive against the Jets last week with over 160 combined yards, thanks mostly due to a long touchdown run of 72 yards after a short pass in the first half against New York.  Williams still loses some goal line work to either QB Cam Newton or fellow tailback / fullback Mike Tolbert, but Williams has good RB2 value with upside against New Orleans and Atlanta the next two weeks.
• Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles, ($201, $285 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  Ertz saw nine targets last week, posting a 6-57-1 line with a great one-handed touchdown against Minnesota in Week 15.  That marked the second big game in three weeks for the big rookie tight end, and a good matchup against Chicago in Week 16 (with Dallas in Week 17) makes him a contender for a Top 10 tight end score both weeks.
• Tim Wright, TE, Buccaneers, ($201, $285 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  Two touchdowns in two weeks is nothing to sneeze at, and with two road games (at the Rams, at the Saints) to close the season, both games should provide lots of opportunity for Wright in the passing game.  The only hesitancy for having Wright above Zach Ertz is how St. Louis controlled Jimmy Graham last week.

MEDIUM MONEY

Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.

• Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks, ($195):  Russell Wilson spreads the ball around to his various receivers, but Doug Baldwin has been the most consistent for more than a month, collecting 26 catches on 36 targets over the last six games and producing four touchdowns over that span.  Baldwin is the top receiver for Seattle right now with Percy Harvin out and deserves WR3 consideration against Arizona in Week 16.
• Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, ($155):  After a rough start in his first game in over a month, Cutler settled down and used his strong group of weapons to rack up good stats against Cleveland last week.  Now Chicago faces the Eagles and the Packers with the playoffs on the line over the final two contests, and Cutler is a borderline QB1 in both matchups.
• Zach Miller, TE, Seahawks, ($153, $175 in TE-PPR bonus leagues):  This one is all about the Week 16 matchup.  The Cardinals are terrible against tight ends, giving up over 83 yards a game to TEs on the season.  Russell Wilson does spread the ball around, but he also finds open targets, which should describe Miller this week.  Week 17 (vs. STL) is a tougher call against the Rams, so Miller is only worth picking up to use in Week 16 if you need a tight end and cannot get a better option.
• Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington, ($150):  Cousins had great numbers last week against Atlanta, and with a great matchup against the woeful Dallas defense, you have to like his upside.  I have him one tick below Cutler (if you have a choice, take Cutler) because I like Cutler’s stable of targets much more than those in Washington.
• Jordan Todman, RB, Jaguars, ($143):  Todman had a strong game in place of Maurice Jones-Drew last week (25-109 rushing, 4-44 receiving) and if Jones-Drew is out again, Todman becomes a strong RB2 candidate against the Titans in Week 16, with upside for Week 17 against the Colts.
• Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings, ($133):  Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart missed the Eagles game last week – but undrafted free agent Matt Asiata filled that void with three rushing touchdowns.  Asiata did not set the world on fire with the rest of his stats (just 51 yards rushing on 30 carries, 3-15 receiving), but if your opponent this week has Adrian Peterson and is looking to have insurance, you may want to a prevent pickup this week and grab Asiata, even if you do not plan to start him.  Word is that Peterson will likely play this week, but that was also the word about this time last week – and we saw how that played out. 
• Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals, ($121):  Marvin Jones played over 70% of the snaps for the Bengals in Week 15, and it was the second week in a row that Jones has found the end zone for a touchdown reception.  The matchups the next two weeks (Minnesota, Baltimore) are a mixed bag, but if you need a WR3 or flex option with some upside just for Week 16, Jones is a solid addition.  
• James Jones, WR, Packers, ($115):  All wide receivers for Green Bay are iffy pickups right now (assuming Jordy Nelson is already on a roster).  It is hard to say who the top targets would be for either Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers against Pittsburgh or Chicago the next two weeks, but Jones has been consistent for both quarterbacks and scored a touchdown last week.
• Trent Richardson, RB, Colts, ($111):  Trent Richardson saw more playing time when Donald Brown went out with a shoulder injury last week, and he has some upside if Brown is downgraded or out for Week 16.  The matchup against Kansas City is not great, but a tailback with a lot of snaps and touches is worth RB2 or flex consideration this time of year. 
• Randall Cobb, WR, Packers, ($111):  All wide receivers for Green Bay are iffy pickups right now (assuming Jordy Nelson is already on a roster).  It is hard to say who the top targets would be for either Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers against Pittsburgh or Chicago the next two weeks, but if Randall Cobb can suit back up and Rodgers is back, he has very high upside.
• Jarrett Boykin, WR, Packers, ($105):  All wide receivers for Green Bay are iffy pickups right now (assuming Jordy Nelson is already on a roster).  It is hard to say who the top targets would be for either Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers against Pittsburgh or Chicago the next two weeks, but Boykin has some WR3/flex appeal if Rodgers is back and Randall Cobb is still out.  
• Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Titans, ($105):  Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of many second-tier quarterbacks that have the potential for a big game in the right matchup.  Tennessee heads to Jacksonville in Week 16 and faces Houston at home in Week 17, making him a strong QB2 with QB1 upside the next two weeks. 
• Matt Cassel, QB, Vikings, ($103):  Matt Cassel has looked good the past two weeks, but a tough matchup looms in Cincinnati in Week 16.  Week 17 is much more favorable (vs. Detroit) if his offensive line protects well for him, but I would rate Cassel as one of the last waiver wire quarterbacks I would consider right now.

CHUMP CHANGE

Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.

• Andre Caldwell, WR, Broncos, ($95):  Feel like rolling some dice?  Caldwell was the “next man up” for Denver against San Diego last Thursday, filling in more than admirably with Wes Welker out.  Caldwell played on over two-thirds of the Denver offensive plays and contributed six catches, 59 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15.  If Welker is out again, Peyton Manning may look towards Caldwell against Houston in Week 16.  
• Robert Woods, WR, Bills, ($55):  While some may be impressed with Robert Woods’ numbers last week (5-82-1), his inconsistency makes him tough to rely on for a fantasy start this week or next.  I would pass on adding him unless you have very few other options.  
• Edwin Baker, RB, Browns, ($53):  Just when you thought you knew who would be the top tailback in Cleveland with Willis McGahee out – surprise!  Edwin Baker outplayed and outperformed Chris Ogbonnaya last week against Chicago.  Baker is a very risky play and only a desperation pickup, so tread lightly.
• Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders, ($50):  Andre Holmes is a very risky add for now, as Denarius Moore is back and pushing for snaps and targets.  Holmes has deep ball ability and great skills to go up for a catch, but he is a shaky WR3 at best even against a suspect San Diego secondary in Week 16.

As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.