Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Another tip – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Ray Rice's understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 5 tip – Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Carolina were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 tip – The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 tip – Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 tip – Talk about injuries! This week could be the most impactful and volatile week on the waiver wire. Every position had at least one major star succumb to injury, so everyone is likely to be diving into the free agent pool for some help – or even just some warm bodies. Do not overbid too hard as the fantasy regular season has just 5-7 games left, but if you have big bucks and want to boost your squad, now might be the time to spend a lot of that cash.
Week 9 tip – Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 tip – Once again, time to shoot the lock off of the wallet. More than two-thirds of the bye weeks are over for teams (just 10 of 32 left), so now your lineups should be all about the best talent – and stashing big upside guys or disaster plan handcuffs. Spend your money with just a few weeks left in most leagues to do so.
Week 11 tip – Time to change gears. There are just a few weeks left before fantasy playoffs, so it is time to pony up the dough for big contributors, grab key handcuffs or stuff the bench with a few high upside guys. No room for bye week fillers any more with just a handful of teams with a bye week left. It is playoff push time.
Week 12 tip – You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 tip – Time to go "all in". With just a few weeks left on the NFL and fantasy calendar, all waiver wire moves have to be made with the idea that either the player you pick up is an immediate contributor or there is a clear scenario that if you lose another player on your current roster, that pickup will be extremely valuable (think handcuff – but all positions). Backup Frank Gore with Kendall Hunter, for example, but also think about wide receiver, tight end and quarterback backups too.
Week 14 tip – Same as last week – go all in. These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 15 tip – Same as last week – go all in. These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 16 tip – So as to not say “same as last week” again, let’s just call it like it is. If you are still alive in one or more fantasy leagues, you are probably in Championship Week or darn close. Now is the time where you have to decide if a guy on waivers is usable this week (or next). That reduces our list of players to discuss, but there’s no reason to save waiver wire bidding cash. At the worst, block your opponent from grabbing help for their team.
Week 17 tip – If you are still in a league for Week 17, this is a one-week pickup for sure, if you need one. Go big or go home. This week the list will be shorter as we have no “wait and see” type pickups.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 17 of the 2013 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Donald Brown, RB, Colts, ($305): Donald Brown exploded last week against Kansas City in the upset win by Indianapolis, posting 110 yards and two scores in Week 16. Indianapolis ends the season at home against Jacksonville, a good matchup for Brown.
- James Starks, RB, Packers, ($305): This is my top RB to go get, if Eddie Lacy is sidelined this week. The Bears are the ideal matchup for a running back, and Starks will have a gigantic game if Lacy is out.
- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, ($300): Chicago faces the Packers for the NFC North title, and the Packers just gave up a big game to Ben Roethlisberger. Cutler is the top QB to add if he is available.
- Edwin Baker, RB, Browns, ($255): Two touchdowns in two weeks in a row, so the “Touchdown Maker” is earning his nickname. Baker is a decent RB2 option in Week 17 against the Steelers, who were just lit up by Eddie Lacy.
- Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Vikings, ($225): Patterson is still a free agent in many fantasy leagues, which seems very strange given how explosive this rookie is for Minnesota. The Vikings and Patterson get a soft Detroit secondary and a Lions team that has been eliminated after a terrible collapse in the last two months, giving Patterson a great chance to end his rookie year with a great performance.
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington, ($225): Washington closes out the year against the New York Giants, who have fallen well off the pace and are close to mailing it in for the last week. Cousins has something to prove and Pierre Garcon is playing well too.
- Nate Washington, WR, Titans, ($220): Washington’s numbers over the past four weeks (20-314-1 on 29 targets) makes him a solid pickup to face a hapless Houston team in Week 17.
- Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars, ($215, $275 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): If you are hunting for a tight end for Week 17, consider Marcedes Lewis. He has scored a touchdown in his last four contests and topped 40 yards in the last three games. He gets a good matchup against Indianapolis for Week 17.
- Jonathan Grimes, RB, Texans, ($205): Dennis Johnson started for Houston last week but was rather unimpressive, splitting time with Deji Karim, but Karim broke his collarbone in Week 16. That leaves Jonathan Grimes as the last man standing for Houston to close out the year, and he could be fantasy gold for Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans.
- San Diego Chargers Defense, ($205): Sleeper defense of the week with Kansas City possibly resting starters in a meaningless Week 17 contest.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Titans, ($200): Tennessee takes on Jacksonville this week with not much at stake, but Fitzpatrick has been playing solid ball lately and is worth a look in a favorable matchup.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots, ($200): New England and their backfield is a total crapshoot, but the Patriots need to win to get a good shot at the second seed in the AFC and a bye. The matchup at home against Buffalo is also favorable, and Blount should get a few goal line chances.
- Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders, ($200): Andre Holmes has been very consistent of late, catching three or more passes for 58 or more yards on seven or more targets the past four weeks. He has racked up strong numbers (19-328-1) over that span, and he gets a good matchup against Denver in Week 17.
- Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants, ($190): Jerrel Jernigan played often for the Giants in Week 16 in place of the injured Victor Cruz, who is done for the year after knee surgery. Jernigan caught six passes for 80 yards and his first career touchdown, and he gets a soft Washington defense for Week 17.
- Reuben Randle, WR, Giants, ($180): Reuben Randle was the starter for the Giants in Week 16 in place of the injured Victor Cruz, who is done for the year after knee surgery. Randle only caught four passes for 40 yards but he saw nine targets on Sunday in and he gets a soft Washington defense for Week 17.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Not this week. Good luck!
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
