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Note to re-draft owners: While you should try some dynasty leagues, this article does have re-draft takes for each players.
Do you post dynasty rankings? This is a common question for the past couple of years. I play in twice as many dynasty leagues as I do re-drafts, but I'm taking a hiatus from posting rankings.
There are several reasons why. Chief among them is that I have some ideas about ranking players in these formats much different than I have in the past and I don't have time to apply them. At the moment the best I can offer in terms of my most recent strategic thinking on dynasty formats are these two articles from last year:
For now, I make it a point to share dynasty implications about players in my articles, and at least a couple of times a year, do a "check-up," around the league. This week's post is one of those check-ups.
It is not a comprehensive list of dynasty options, but I will list dozens of players whose 2014 performances have registered something in my cobweb-filled mousetrap thus far. Check out last week's Gut Check if you missed my takes on some of the league's RBs and WRs
NEEDLE MOVING
Regardless of what the box score says, these players look like prospects with long-term value. These prospects range from "must-buys," to options worth monitoring weekly until they earn an opportunity to become a consistent asset. If you need me to tell you to buy Sammy Watkins then you need more help than I an offer you here.
Teddy Bridgewater: Despite an offensive line that thinks it's a turnstile in a metro train station, an option quarterback-turned-running back, and the closest thing we might be seeing to Forrest Gump at wide receiver, Bridgewater is 30 seconds and a Sammy Watkins catch away from guiding the Vikings to a 4-1 record with his starts in Minnesota. The rookie has converted 45.3 percent of his third down passes. Peyton Manning has converted 44.9 percent. The best performer on third downs this year is Tony Romo at 59.5 percent.
The key things that have impressed me about Bridgewater is his decision-making under pressure and his performance after he makes mistakes. Despite taking numerous sacks and knockdowns thus far, the rookie maintains a strong balance of aggression and caution with his down field throws. He's willing to hang in the pocket and take the hits to deliver the ball to an open target, but when it comes to reading coverage Bridgewater rarely makes the same mistake twice.
Bridgewater's greatest issue entering the NFL was his deep accuracy. Some questioned his arm strength, but according to Norv Turner, the issue was more mechanical than physiological. Since entering the league, Bridgewater has routinely overthrown his vertical targets. Considering the adjustments he's made during the off-season, it only seems logical that the rookie would err long.
While Bridgewater will never have a gun like Rodgers, Stafford, or Cutler, I don't believe we're looking at the next Alex Smith, either. If I'm wrong, then Smith will be that proper comparison point in terms of production. However, Smith is routinely shy of his target as a deep passer whereas Bridgewater has been routinely overthrowing his options.
Cordarrelle Patterson has struggled all year as a route runner, and it's a lesson that consistent technique is the difference between most highly productive pros and most inconsistent athletic talents trying to gain a foothold in the NFL. As of this week, Patterson remains more of a Run Forrest, run! option for the Vikings and this is hurting Brigewater's overall productivity. Of the four rookie starting quarterbacks, Bridgewater remains the passer I'm most impressed with.
If Adrian Peterson returns to Minnesota and the Vikings use him, we may see Bridgewater's production increase thanks to Peterson limiting certain situational pass rushes and strengthening the believability of the play-action game. If Peterson stays in Minnesota long-term and has another 2-3 seasons as the starter, I'd be willing to pay a little more for Bridgewater than what may seem like fair value today.
NEEDLE STEADY
Some of these players I'd buy in deeper leagues in package deals, but I wouldn't value them as starters. These players can help your team if they earn an opportunity, but they're not players to build around. The reasons have to do with lack of high-end talent or they require a specialized offensive scheme to maximize their high-end skills.
Derek Carr: His work under pressure has been inconsistent, but better than my worst fears. There have been impressive moments where Carr has climbed the pocket under pressure and found the open receiver. However, his handling of pressure is still a notch below that of Bridgewater, because he's made rasher decisions under pressure or the play after taking hits that I'm not seeing happen as often from the Vikings rookie. Even so, Carr's arm, flashes of excellent accuracy, and overall poise has been good enough that he's still worth holding as an investment. While I wouldn't trade for him in a dynasty league as my future starter, I'd hold him this year and consider selling in the off-season where his value should climb due to fantasy owners over-fitting expectations of a big jump in production from rookie year to second year.
Blake Bortles: I think most people would place Bortles in the "steady" or "dropping" category, because in addition to his multiple interceptions, his decision-making can appear bone-headed. He often throws when he should have run and he's missing defenders dropping into coverage on a regular basis. Although Bortles has more studying to do, I like his aggressiveness and pocket presence overall. I was tempted to put him in the same tier as Bridgewater, because his mistakes are more due to his reads of the defense and not his reactions to pressure. Carr's issues are more reactionary.
Bortles may not be reading opposing defenses as well as Bridgewater or Derek Carr, but this was never his strength. If Peyton Manning is the endpoint of the strategist spectrum of current passers and Colin Kapernick the endpoint for the improvisational spectrum, Bortles would be in the middle and aspiring to play to the level of Ben Roethlisberger.
What's interesting is how much the Jaguars have attempted to use Bortles like Russell Wilson. There's a lot of movement of the pocket, read-option, and throws on the run in this system. Personally, I'd rather see a little less predetermined movement built into the play and allow Bortles to develop into more of a pocket passer. Seattle built the system around what Wilson did more naturally since his days at N.C. State.
Seattle's system also helps cover up a limited receiving corps. The movement of Bortles in Jacksonville is probably due more to the line play than the team thinking it should develop Bortles like Wilson; it's more a matter of necessity.
Bortles continues to flash just enough play-making skills that I'm optimistic he has the coaching staff, receiver talent, and defense to develop into a serviceable, long-term fantasy QB2. The biggest key beyond Bortles learning to read the basic complexities of NFL coverage will be the offensive line.
Travis Kelce: I'm not nearly as optimistic about Kelce's future in Kansas City as I should be. The reason is Alex Smith's lack of skill as a deep passer. If you don't watch college football, then Kelce's preseason catch and run where he blew past the opposing secondary was probably a revelation of the tight end's speed. However, speed matters only so much for Kelce's production in the Chiefs offense, because the quarterback is targeting him on static routes where he's not on the move: stop routes, screen passes, and hitches.
Even when Kelce earns a target on a dynamic route, it's generally a crosser or a slant in the traffic of a shallow zone. The fact that Kelce is earning decent production after the catch is a testament to his athleticism, but imagine if Smith had a knack for hitting deep seam routes, the streak, or the post? Heck, even a deep crosser would be nice to see.
Smith is one of the reasons why Vernon Davis wasn't nearly the consistent fantasy stud he was capable of becoming. I'm afraid that Kelce's fantasy owners will have to cope with Smith for another 2-3 seasons and it limits the tight end's fantastic upside. It could mean that Kelce's best years come after he's played out his initial contract and signs with a team that has a top quarterback.
If Kelce re-signs with Kansas City in 2017 and Smith remains the starter, Kelce will be a tease as an elite fantasy option. If Smith is gone by 2017, then Kelce's fantasy owners have to hope for a top prospect or a big free agent signing at quarterback. I'd hope for the second option.
I'm still keeping Kelce and hoping for the Chiefs to expand his role in the offense in 2015, but imagine Kelce in Atlanta as the real replacement to Tony Gonzalez? Matt Ryan's deep ball isn't great, but it's much better than Smith's. I'd love this possibility as a fantasy owner.
Chase Ford: The Vikings tight end has performed admirably in Kyle Rudolph's absence. The former University of Miami tight end was Jimmy Graham's successor in South Florida, but not nearly as productive. Still, Ford's height and athleticism are good enough that he has stuck around the league since his first tryout with the Eagles as an UDFA in 2012. I'd be surprised if the Vikings organization loses its enthusiasm for Rudolph after awarding the Notre Dame tight end a contract extension this summer, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ford earns a new opportunity in a different town as an exclusive rights free agent in 2015.
The safe bet is to sell high on Ford in dynasty leagues after hanging onto him this year as one of the few reliable targets Bridgewater has. If you don't mind holding onto Ford as a low-cost investment, he could pay larger dividends in a new town. As I mentioned, Atlanta desperately needs a move tight end with good hands and skill to work the intermediate seam. If you need a tight end in re-draft leagues, Ford's production should keep him a high-end TE2 this year.
If Peterson returns, For could be more valuable due to the natural play-action interplay between a great running back and a tight end in the red zone. Keep in mind that Minnesota still uses rotates tight ends because Ford isn't the strongest blocker of the bunch.
Dion Sims: Charles Clay is a free agent in 2015 and the Dolphins have been inserting Sims into the offense with greater frequency. Clay is a more dynamic player, but Sims is a more versatile weapon when considering the tight end position as both in-line blocker and short/intermediate receiver. Sims is a cheap addition this year in dynasty leagues where impatient owners or shallow roster allowances made the second-year option a cast-off. There's potential for Sims to develop along similar lines as Dwayne Allen as a producer, although Allen as a player is more like a cross between Clay and Sims.
Johnny Manziel: I'd still hold onto Manziel, but Brian Hoyer is keeping Cleveland in games despite a receiving corps that is slightly better than what Tom Brady had (sans Julian Edelman) last year and would likely have Peyton Manning thinking about retirement. I anticipate Josh Gordon to return and play well enough that we'll see if Hoyer has a chance to remain Cleveland's starter in 2015. Don't expect Manziel to have an impact this year, but he could be a solid buy-low next--as long as work ethic doesn't become a glaring issue.
NEEDLE DROOPING
No, I didn't mean to write "dropping." I'm talking about listless or uninspired performances-situations for players who were considered promising at one time. I'd rather wait until these players hit fantasy free agency before I add them to my roster.
Nick Foles: Even prior to Foles' injury against the Texans, the Eagles' starter continues to make mistakes that often get rookies benched--throwing deep targets into high-traffic areas from a pocket where the quarterback cannot step through his delivery. Foles got away with this too often for his good last year. It's kind of like a running back not making the best choice at line of scrimmage or hitting a hole without patience only to spin blindly off the back of a blocker into an open area for a big gain that was more luck than skill. Steve Slaton did this more often as a rookie than any running back I have seen in recent years. Foles in some respects has been the Steve Slaton of young quarterbacks when it comes to handling constricted pockets.
I've been waiting for this issue to catch up with him and Chip Kelly to consider starting Mark Sanchez, but the Eagles quarterback has been good enough to avoid this potential dilemma. Now that Foles his hurt, Sanchez might do enough to force the issue. The former Jets' passer is a better fit in this offense from the standpoint of pure physical tools and offensive experience.
Kelly's offense works best when a quarterback can move. Imagine Steve Young in this offense (I bet Chip Kelly just smiled in his sleep at the mention of it). Sanchez's strengths at USC was his skill in the play action game and throwing on the move as well as using quick drops and pump fakes. The veteran's touchdown to Jordan Matthews was a nice pump fake and placement up the seam in tight coverage.
I'm also convinced that Sanchez's downfall in New York was aided by the Ryan regime. Rex Ryan is a dynamite player's coach and a fine defensive mind, but the Ryan family--sad to say--seems to foster offenses that perform as poorly as their defenses perform well. Pete Carroll once said that Sanchez left a year too early and needed further development.
Kelly's staff is a teaching staff as well as it is strategic. If there's a player with the potential to become this generation's Jim Plunkett, Sanchez might be it. I'd add Sanchez in re-drafts and consider buying him in dynasty leagues. Foles is still worth holding, but his value may be dropping more than just temporarily due to injury.
