This installment serves as an update and refresher to the pre-combine edition. In part one, the general outline was set with estimated physical traits and their age-weighted production. Now, the picture is coming into focus. With many backs participating in the combine drills, their overall prospect profile is set and ready to compare within this draft class and to previous ones.
Overall, not much changed. The wide receiver position cemented their dominance as the class of the skill position draft. At running back, the only players with an overall projection score above 70 (1-100 scale) are from non-BCS schools. Last year, Marcus Lattimore, LeVeon Bell, and Giovani Bernard eclipsed that mark in a ‘down’ class declared by many pundits.
Mr.Combine
Jerick McKinnon blew up the combine. While he was on the radar for the most plugged-in draft followers pre-combine, that subset of fantasy followers ballooned following his strong performances across all the drills. To isolate just a single number, I want to break down his 10-yard split of 1.46. Just 27 backs before him eclipsed the 1.50 mark, over half of which were top-100 draft picks and seven emerged as first round NFL draft selections. When combining a back’s weight with their 10-yard split to form an explosion factor, McKinnon is near the top-10 since 1999. That is a single tier below names like Chris Johnson and Jonathan Stewart. McKinnon has some serious juice. He played in a non-conventional offense at Georgia Southern, but his raw burst and athleticism is obvious. Still a long-shot to emerge at the NFL level as a full-time running back, McKinnon sits atop the post-combine ‘riser’ list and poised to be a chic mid-round rookie pick going forward.
Good Enough
These players ended up with overall projection scores in the 60-70 range, good but not great marks for one reason or another. That means that initial situation is critical to their NFL production and they are not likely to leapfrog older starters as a clearly more-talented young gun.
Ka’Deem Carey was the whipping boy with his 4.70 time in the 40. His overall score did not drop much as he was not projected to excel to any meaningful degree at the combine. His athletic score dropped in my model, but the meat and potatoes of his good overall score lies in his dominant rushing and receiving production as well as his age (under 22 years old at NFL kickoff). Few previous prospects have the big divide between athleticism and production like Carey. That said, production is a far stronger indicator for future fantasy production than the myriad of drill times. Considering the souring on Carey by the general consensus, Carey is emerging as a good value in the pre-draft timeframe.
Jeremy Hill had the athletic shine come off his profile, now mired with a score of 48 (of 100) in that category. His age-weighted production and age entering the NFL remain good and drive his good overall mark.
Isaiah Crowell is in the discussion for the best running back prospect in the class. He did not dominate against lesser competition like one would hope after being dismissed from Georgia. His production, however, as an 18-year-old freshman at Georgia more than makes up for his coast to the finish. Crowell is one of the better athletes in this draft class according to the model. His NFL draft projection varies wildly as a day two talent, but could slide to the late rounds (or later) with his checkered off-the-field past.
Bishop Sankey did some work at the combine. While not dominant in any single category in the model, Sankey has a score between 60 and 70 in athleticism, rushing production, and receiving production. The two recent prospects with similar marks across the board were LeVeon Bell and Daniel Thomas. Neither one was/is considered that exciting of a prospect, both had legit opportunities at a starting job in the NFL. Bell took advantage of that chance as a rookie and Thomas did little over his initial NFL seasons. Either way, the profile likely indicates Sankey will have at least a meaningful committee role in his early years as a ho-hum, but well-rounded back.
Tre Mason is another ‘riser’ after the combine. He is basically a small notch down from Bishop Sankey. Mason lacks the receiving marks of Sankey, but makes up some ground by being significantly younger than Sankey. Prior year prospects that fit well with Mason general projection profile: Jordan Todman and Cadillac Williams. In general the names on Mason’s comparable list are NFL contributors, but not ones that emerged in meaningful fantasy staples.
Terrance West, like Tre Mason and the upcoming Carlos Hyde, have good athleticism and rushing marks, but lacks the receiving game to project as a true three-down back in the NFL. West dominated against lesser competition and has an age-weighted rushing score in the top 10% of all drafted backs since 1999. That said, West is quite old by comparison, which brings his overall score back into a good, but not great, range.
Carlos Hyde has many similarities to Eddie Lacy from a year ago. Lacy was fortunate to land in Green Bay and get exclusive lead back work. Will Hyde be so lucky? Both are essentially two-down grinders. Other athletically capable and receiving production deficient prospects from the past include names like LeGarrette Blount and Travis Henry. Both hit or surpassed 12 points per game early in their fantasy careers.
Charles Sims sneaks into this tier with decent athletic and rushing scores, but an elite receiving mark. Despite transferring during his career, Sims ranks in the top 1% of prospects in age-weighted receiving. That is even more impressive considering he is oldest relevant running back in this year’s class. Sims is the name to track in PPR leagues where he could begin as a situational pass-catcher, but round out his game into something more substantial.
Middling Options
Antonio Andrews took a nose drive with a forgettable combine. His age-weighted production had him in the sleeper small school category, but now his athletic score lags behind even guys like Ka’Deem Carey and James White. Classifying Andrews as a middling option is rather kind, all things considered, at this stage.
De’Anthony Thomas, Marion Grice, and Zach Bauman (Northern Arizona) all fall into the same category. They were good college receiving backs, but lag in the athleticism to think they emerge into anything but muted role players, at best, in the NFL.
James White profiles as a poor man’s version of Ka’Deem Carey. White is well-rounded, but did not test well athletically. He is unlikely to be a complete bust considering his likely price point, but White is lacking upside potential.
Andre Williams has some athletic juice, but he was essentially a one-year wonder at Boston College and offers little else to his game. He profiles as a strict early-down back, tempering his appeal in PPR leagues quite a bit.
Below-Average Options
Lache Seastrunk has an overall score of 41 in the model. Yes, out of 100. He had little upside for a high score because his saving grace was supposed to be his off-the-charts athleticism. That did not happen, which caused Seastrunk’s overall mark to take a dive. He was not a big part of the passing game at Baylor (course they rarely used the running backs as a whole) and his rushing production was middling. Sprinkle in the fact that he will be over 23 years old for week one and you get a prospect with more name value than substance as a future fantasy impact player.
Devonta Freeman’s most impressive mark is as a receiver (52), which indicates he is an average back all-around and, like Seastrunk, has more buzz than the projection model would otherwise warrant. Buyer beware for the well-known names in this tier.
Tyler Gaffney was a pleasant surprise at the combine, which helped his overall projection model stock. That said, he remains in the 40-45 range alongside Seastrunk and Freeman. Gaffney has some appeal in his likely near-afterthought price range in startups and rookie drafts with one of the better athletic scores in this class. His career production scores and age temper expectations down to flyer range.
Long Shots
Of the remaining known names, guys like Tim Cornett (average-ish likely two down back) and George Atkinson (nice athlete but did not put it together at Notre Dame) highlight the best of the rest tier. James Wilder Jr. had a fullback-like combine and he was already in this tier on my board prior to that disaster. Henry Josey and Storm Johnson are carrying far more name value compared to their outside-the-top-35 in this class metrics warrant. Silas Redd, Alfred Blue, and Adam Muema are off the radar based on the projection scores.
A few of the pass-catching, but not much else-type names to highlight offer the most intrigue if looking for a player to stick on a roster and carve a future role. Rajion Neal fits that mold with a 76 receiving score and a middle of the pack athletic mark. James Sims from Kansas is more well-rounded version of Neal, but still needs a receiving role for any emergence in the NFL. Darrin Reaves is another pass-catcher option. Trey Watts has the highest age-weighted receiving mark of this subset, but lags well behind the others in other areas.
Small School Options of Note
Octavias McKoy from Western Connecticut had more rushing production than his overall marks would otherwise indicate. The key with small school prospects is they need to dominate their competition. McKoy did enough (rushing score of 90) to keep on a watch list into draft season if he can stick on a roster.
Terrance Cobb has a good blend of athleticism and rushing production, but is old and lacking in passing game work. John Spooney is a burner from Brown University, but his slight frame and lack of receiving production shades him into returner or bust in the NFL. Branden Oliver has passable production marks, but little athleticism to think he emerges on an NFL depth chart outside of a myriad of injuries in front of him. Franklyn Quiteh (Bloomsburg) is a name I have only seen outside of my database one or two times since January. His age-weighted rushing production is in the top 2% since 1999 - that alone warrants monitoring (like McKoy) to see if he sticks in the NFL. Lorenzo Taliaferro (Coastal Carolina) has a decent profile and could be a late round selection. Like many small school guys, Taliaferro is older and has a very short leash to make a splash. Zach Zenner (South Dakota State) is another productive name to know in deep leagues where anyone with a pulse is viable. Zenner has a plus could project as a third-stringer out of the gate in the NFL.
The best player available approach will scream wide receiver and an occasional tight end in the first two rounds of rookie drafts. Unfortunately the allure of the running back position is intoxicating. The promise of immediate touches for a rookie running back draws in dynasty owners every season like the smell of a home-cooked meal when a hungry family member walks through the door at dinner time.
There will be one more pre-draft installment breaking down the running back position, discussing comparable historical prospects and incorporating an overall dynasty rookie board.
